Core Viewpoint - CSX Corporation is facing multiple challenges that have negatively impacted its investment appeal, including downward earnings revisions, poor stock performance, and operational issues [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings has decreased by 8.8% over the past 90 days, while the estimate for the current year has been revised down by 9.8%, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, CSX's earnings are expected to decline by 16.3% year over year, and for the full year 2025, a decline of 9.8% is anticipated [7]. Stock Performance - CSX shares have lost 14.2% in value over the past six months, significantly underperforming the transportation-rail industry, which saw a decline of 6.5% [2]. Zacks Rank and Style Score - CSX currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has a Value Score of D, reflecting its unattractiveness as an investment option [6]. Earnings Surprise History - The company has a disappointing earnings surprise history, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average miss of 3.13% [6]. Revenue Challenges - The soft coal market is a primary factor hurting CSX's prospects, with coal revenues falling by 27% year over year in Q1 2025 and coal volumes decreasing by 9% year over year [7]. Operational Issues - CSX is facing significant rail network challenges, including locomotive and crew shortages, which are likely to adversely affect service levels and operational efficiency [8]. Capital Expenditures - Elevated capital expenditures are a concern, with management expecting capex to be approximately $2.5 billion in 2025, adding to the company's financial pressures [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]

Core Insights - CSX Corporation is participating in the Wolfe Research 18th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference, indicating its engagement with industry stakeholders and investors [1] - The company is optimistic about its future, discussing challenges faced in recent quarters and strategies to address them as it looks ahead to 2026 and 2027 [3] Company Overview - Kevin Boone, Chief Commercial Officer, and Matthew Korn, Head of Investor Relations, are representing CSX at the conference, highlighting the importance of their leadership in investor communications [2] - The company acknowledges the changing policies and trade flows impacting the industry, suggesting a proactive approach to adapting to these changes [3] Industry Context - The conference serves as a platform for discussing recent volume trends and broader industry dynamics, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement [4]

CSX FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: CSX Corporation - **Date of Conference**: May 20, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Volume Trends**: CSX reported a volume increase of over 3% quarter to date, with intermodal being a significant bright spot. Anticipation of increased volume due to a 90-day tariff relief on imports from China is expected to impact the third quarter positively [4][5][6]. - **Market Performance**: - **Aggregates**: Strong performance, particularly in the Southeast due to road infrastructure activity [6]. - **Grain**: Improved performance noted, with additional opportunities anticipated [7]. - **Coal**: Domestic demand is increasing, with a mid-single-digit volume increase reported. The company expects further growth as two mines come back online [19][21][23]. - **Chemicals**: Experienced some volatility, but recovery is expected as a major customer's production resumes [9]. - **Forest Products**: Noted near-term weakness due to maintenance outages, but optimism remains for the latter half of the year [10]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Volume Growth**: CSX maintains a positive outlook for volume growth, contingent on macroeconomic stability and service improvements. The company expects to build momentum into 2026, with quarter-over-quarter improvements anticipated [15][16][66]. - **Coal Market Dynamics**: The domestic coal market is expected to remain strong through the end of the year, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [23][24]. - **Pricing and Yield**: The company aims to exceed cost inflation in pricing, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics as the trucking market stabilizes [50][58]. Strategic Initiatives - **Infrastructure Projects**: Significant investments are being made in infrastructure, including the Howard Street Tunnel project, which is on track for completion in Q4 2025. This project is expected to enhance capacity and operational efficiency [36][39]. - **Network Improvements**: CSX is focusing on improving network fluidity and service metrics, with expectations for sequential improvement as projects are completed [40][46][64]. Challenges and Risks - **Service Metrics**: The company faced challenges in service metrics due to weather-related disruptions and ongoing construction projects. However, improvements are being implemented to enhance service delivery [40][41][48]. - **Market Volatility**: The company is cautious about potential volatility in international intermodal volumes and the impact of macroeconomic factors on demand [12][14]. Conclusion CSX is positioned for growth with a focus on improving service metrics, leveraging infrastructure investments, and capitalizing on favorable market conditions in coal and intermodal sectors. The company remains optimistic about achieving volume growth and improving financial performance as it moves into 2026 and beyond [66][68].

Core Viewpoint - CSX shares have increased by approximately 13.1% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, but there are concerns about whether this positive trend will continue or if a pullback is imminent [1] Group 1: Earnings Report and Market Reaction - The most recent earnings report indicates that estimates for CSX have trended downward over the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of -7.77% [2] - Investors and analysts are reacting to the downward trend in estimates, which suggests a cautious outlook for the stock [1] Group 2: VGM Scores and Investment Strategy - CSX has an average Growth Score of C and a similar score for momentum, while it received a grade of D for value, placing it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for CSX is D, indicating a lack of focus on any particular investment strategy [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The downward trend in estimates suggests a negative outlook for CSX, reflected in its Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [4]

Core Insights - CSX Corporation is facing significant headwinds in 2025 due to ongoing projects such as the Blue Ridge Subdivision rebuild and the Howard Street Tunnel project, yet it is experiencing high volume levels and operational improvements [3]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported that volumes are reaching some of the highest levels of the year, indicating a positive trend in operational capacity [3]. - The impact of Hurricane Helene last year led to significant outages, particularly affecting the Blue Ridge rebuild project [4]. Group 2: Conference Highlights - The conference call featured Sean Pelkey, EVP and CFO of CSX, who emphasized the importance of the ongoing projects and their implications for future growth [3]. - The conference marks CSX's 17th consecutive appearance, showcasing the company's commitment to engaging with investors and stakeholders [1].

Core Points - CSX Corp. will be represented by Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, at the Wolfe Research 18th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference in New York on May 20, 2025 [1] - The address will be available for live streaming and will have a replay option on the company's investor relations website [2] - CSX is a leading transportation company based in Jacksonville, Florida, providing rail, intermodal, and transload services across various markets, contributing significantly to the economic expansion and industrial development of the United States [3] Company Overview - CSX has been operational for nearly 200 years and connects major metropolitan areas in the eastern United States, where approximately two-thirds of the nation's population resides [3] - The company links over 240 short-line railroads and more than 70 ports with major population centers and agricultural towns [3] - Additional information about CSX and its subsidiaries can be found on the company's website [3]

Summary of CSX Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: CSX Corporation - **Industry**: Rail Transportation Key Points and Arguments 1. **Operational Challenges**: CSX faced significant headwinds in 2025 due to the Blue Ridge subdivision rebuild and the Howard Street Tunnel project, impacting performance in the first quarter [19][22][27] 2. **Volume Recovery**: Despite challenges, CSX reported some of the highest volume levels of the year, with improvements in operations and network fluidity [19][23][28] 3. **Revenue Miss**: In the first quarter, CSX missed approximately $100 million in revenue opportunities due to operational inefficiencies [30] 4. **Capacity and Growth**: CSX anticipates low to mid-single-digit volume growth over the next three years without significant new infrastructure investments [32][89] 5. **Tariff Impacts**: The recent pause in reciprocal tariffs with China is expected to lead to a surge in preshipping, although an air pocket in freight volumes is anticipated in the short term [8][34][36] 6. **Market Outlook**: CSX remains optimistic about the second half of 2025 and 2026, driven by strong industrial development opportunities and new business wins [26][38] 7. **Coal and Fertilizer Demand**: Coal volumes increased by 6% quarter-to-date, driven by both domestic demand and export opportunities, while fertilizer volumes rose by 12% due to recovery from previous disruptions [53][60] 8. **Intermodal Growth**: Intermodal services have shown double-digit growth year-to-date, attributed to international demand and strong service performance [62][64] 9. **Employee Efficiency**: CSX is focusing on maintaining flat employee levels while improving efficiency, with a current workforce of 23,000 [93] 10. **Cost Management**: The company is managing labor inflation effectively, with overall labor costs running below 3% due to cost-sharing models in health benefits [47][71] Additional Important Insights 1. **Service Improvements**: CSX has improved trip plan compliance to over 80%, up from the 60% range earlier in the year, indicating better operational performance [25] 2. **Technology Investments**: The company is investing in advanced analytics and AI to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities [81] 3. **Long-term Projects**: The Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge projects are on track, with expected completion in late 2025, which will enhance capacity and operational efficiency [66][68] 4. **Pricing Environment**: CSX is experiencing stable pricing dynamics, with pricing growth exceeding inflation, particularly in the chemicals and merchandise sectors [71][73] 5. **Future Projections**: CSX anticipates a significant reduction in costs related to rerouting and weather impacts as projects are completed, setting the stage for improved margins and earnings growth in 2026 [95][96]

Core Points - CSX Corporation has reached a tentative five-year agreement with the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen covering approximately 3,400 locomotive engineers, marking a significant milestone as the first Class I freight railroad to do so with BLET [1][2] - The agreement includes competitive pay, improved healthcare, and work rule changes aimed at enhancing the quality of life for locomotive engineers, reflecting similar wage increases and benefits from agreements with 13 other unions [2][3] - Locomotive engineers represent about 20% of CSX's frontline workforce, and if ratified, nearly 75% of CSX's unionized workers will be covered by new agreements reached in the last nine months [3] Company Overview - CSX is a premier transportation company based in Jacksonville, Florida, providing rail, intermodal, and rail-to-truck transload services across various markets, including energy, industrial, construction, agricultural, and consumer products [5] - The company has been integral to the economic expansion and industrial development of the nation for nearly 200 years, connecting major metropolitan areas in the eastern United States and linking over 240 short-line railroads and more than 70 ports [5]

Group 1 - CSX Corporation is a key player in the American railroad industry, operating a network that spans the eastern United States and connects major industrial regions with over 70 ports [1] - The company plays a critical role in facilitating transportation and logistics across the eastern U.S., which is vital for various industries [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of well-researched commentary and insights into different industries and asset classes, aiming to assist readers in navigating complex global markets [1]