Core Insights - Whales have adopted a bearish stance on Carvana, with 41% of trades being bullish and 43% bearish, indicating mixed sentiment among large investors [1] - The price target for Carvana is projected to range between $80.0 and $590.0 based on recent options activity [2] - Analysts have provided an average target price of $473.0 for Carvana, with varying ratings from different firms [11][12] Options Activity - A total of 96 trades were detected for Carvana, with 22 puts amounting to $899,324 and 74 calls totaling $4,714,278 [1] - Noteworthy options activity includes various trades with different sentiments, such as bullish and neutral, across multiple expiration dates and strike prices [8] - The trading volume for Carvana stands at 965,955, with the stock price currently at $354.08, reflecting a 0.82% increase [14] Company Overview - Carvana operates as an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars, generating revenue primarily from used vehicle sales and additional services like financing and insurance [9][10]

Core Insights - Carvana Co. (CVNA) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $1.33 and revenues at $5.05 billion, indicating a year-over-year EPS growth of 107.8% [1][8] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 38.2%, with Carvana having beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 107.32% [2][8] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Carvana reported an adjusted EPS of $1.28, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10, and significantly up from 14 cents in the same quarter last year. Net sales reached $4.84 billion, exceeding the estimate of $4.59 billion, marking a 42% year-over-year increase [2][5] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $601 million, reflecting a 70% increase year-over-year, with margins at 12.4%. The company forecasts full-year adjusted EBITDA between $2 billion and $2.2 billion, compared to $1.38 billion last year [5][8] Sales and Growth Projections - Carvana's retail unit sales are projected to grow, with an expected increase in Q3 2025 retail unit sales to 145,112 vehicles, indicating a 33.6% year-over-year growth [3][4] - The acquisition of ADESA's U.S. operations has enhanced Carvana's logistics, auction capabilities, and reconditioning infrastructure, contributing to improved profitability and operational efficiency [4][5] Earnings Expectations - Carvana has a positive Earnings ESP of +6.55%, indicating a strong likelihood of beating earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter, supported by a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [6][7]

Core Insights - Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is highlighted as a stock with significant potential, particularly due to its heavily shorted status and upcoming earnings report [1] - The stock has more than doubled since its low in April, attributed to factors such as tariffs on imported autos increasing the value of used cars [1] - Carvana reported strong earnings, exceeding expectations for both revenue and profit, which contributed to a 17% increase in stock price following the announcement [1] Company Overview - Carvana operates an online platform for buying and selling used cars and also manages auction sites [1] - The company has been recommended as a strong investment for over two years, with consistent performance noted by analysts [1] Market Context - The stock's performance is influenced by external factors such as President Trump's tariffs on imported vehicles, which have made used cars more valuable [1] - Despite the positive outlook for Carvana, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential with less risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - Carvana Co. is advancing its digital, vertically integrated model to move away from traditional dealerships as credit concerns diminish and demand remains strong [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Carvana is leading the transition from traditional auto retail through a digital-first, data-driven, and capital-efficient approach [1][2] - This model is expected to provide a cleaner and more compelling buying experience compared to traditional incumbents, creating significant long-term value [2] Group 2: Financial Projections and Market Outlook - Analyst Mackenzie Holleran has set a price target of $500 for Carvana, reflecting a 35x multiple of projected 2027 adjusted EBITDA, supported by a sustainable and profitable growth profile [3] - The company is anticipated to report 2025 revenue of $18.491 billion and EBITDA of $2.100 billion [5] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Concerns regarding subprime exposure are considered over-extrapolated, with the analyst suggesting that fears are linked to Carvana's previous operational fragility [3] - The analyst expects improving supply of used vehicles and easing rates to lead to lower average selling prices and smaller monthly payments, which should help maintain unit demand despite tighter credit conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Carvana Co. is advancing its digital, vertically integrated model to move away from traditional dealerships, with credit concerns diminishing and demand remaining strong [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Carvana is leading the transition from traditional auto retail through a digital-first, data-driven, and capital-efficient approach [1][2] - This model is expected to provide a more compelling buying experience compared to traditional incumbents, creating significant value over the coming years [2] Group 2: Financial Projections and Market Outlook - Needham's analyst Mackenzie Holleran has set a price target of $500 for Carvana, reflecting a 35x multiple of projected 2027 adjusted EBITDA, supported by a sustainable and profitable growth profile [3] - The company is projected to report 2025 revenue of $18.491 billion and EBITDA of $2.100 billion [5] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Concerns regarding subprime exposure are considered over-extrapolated, with the analyst suggesting that fears are linked to Carvana's previous operational fragility [3] - The analyst anticipates that improving supply of used vehicles and easing rates will lead to lower average selling prices and smaller monthly payments, which should help maintain unit demand despite tighter credit conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Carvana has been trending in stock searches, with recent performance showing a decline of -7.9% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of +1.3% and the Internet - Commerce industry’s decline of -2.6% [1] Earnings Estimates Revisions - Carvana is expected to report earnings of $1.33 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a significant increase of +107.8% year-over-year, with a 30-day estimate change of +4.4% [4] - For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $5.23, indicating a year-over-year change of +228.9%, with a 30-day estimate change of +2.2% [4] - The next fiscal year’s consensus earnings estimate stands at $6.99, showing a change of +33.8% from the previous year, with a recent estimate change of +3.9% [5] Revenue Growth Projections - The consensus sales estimate for Carvana is $4.99 billion for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of +36.5% [10] - For the current fiscal year, revenue estimates are $19.03 billion, indicating a change of +39.2%, while the next fiscal year’s estimate is $24.9 billion, reflecting a change of +30.8% [10] Recent Performance and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Carvana achieved revenues of $4.84 billion, a year-over-year increase of +41.9%, and an EPS of $1.28 compared to $0.14 a year ago [11] - The company exceeded consensus revenue estimates by +5.62% and EPS estimates by +16.36% [11] - Carvana has consistently beaten consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters [12] Valuation Metrics - Carvana is rated D on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [16] - Valuation multiples such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) are essential for assessing whether the stock is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued [14][15] Conclusion - The Zacks Rank 2 suggests that Carvana may outperform the broader market in the near term, despite its current valuation concerns [17]

Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) stock is trading higher Thursday afternoon, despite a lack of company-specific news for the session. Here’s what investors need to know.CVNA shares are climbing with conviction. Track the action here.What To Know: The stock gained on Tuesday following the company’s expansion of its same-day vehicle delivery service to the San Diego area. This move is seen as a step in enhancing customer convenience and strengthening its position in the online used car market.The positive momentum is a ...

Core Viewpoint - Jim Chanos, a prominent short seller, has taken a position against Carvana (CVNA), citing concerns over the subprime auto lending market despite the company's significant stock performance over the past three years [1][2]. Company Performance - Carvana's stock has increased by 2,155% over the last three years, but it experienced an 11% drop recently due to Chanos' comments [1]. - In Q3, Carvana sold approximately 159,000 retail units, marking a 46% year-over-year increase and exceeding estimates by 6% [3]. - Sales in September rose by 54%, the fastest growth since late 2024, with Carvana achieving over 40% growth in car sales for five consecutive quarters [3]. Financial Metrics - The average selling price on Carvana's platform increased by 5% to $26,300, surpassing industry trends, while website traffic grew by 22% last month [4]. - Carvana reported record-breaking second-quarter results with retail units sold reaching 143,280, a 41% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $4.84 billion [5]. - The company achieved new records in adjusted EBITDA margin, GAAP operating income, and net income dollars [5]. Market Position - CEO Ernie Garcia stated that Carvana has become the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer, capturing approximately 1.5% market share in the U.S. used car market [6]. - CFO Mark Jenkins highlighted the efficiency advantages of Carvana's vertically integrated platform, which supports annual sales exceeding one million units, positioning the company for substantial overhead leverage as growth continues [7].

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Core Insights - The Optimist Fund achieved a return of +9.1% in Q3 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark [5] - The fund's year-to-date return stands at 44.5%, compared to the benchmark's 11.1% [5] - The fund anticipates continued growth opportunities over the next three and a half years, similar to recent performance [4] Fund Performance - The fund's performance over various periods shows significant volatility, with a notable recovery from a -51.4% return in 2022 to 82.9% in 2023 [5] - Compound returns as of September 30, 2025, indicate strong performance across 1-year (61.2%), 2-year (65.6%), and 3-year (61.9%) periods [5] Top Contributors - **Wayfair**: Revenue increased by approximately 5% year-over-year to $3.27 billion, marking its fastest growth since Q1 2021. Adjusted EBITDA reached $205 million, indicating a margin above 6% for the first time since Q2 2021 [7][8][9] - **ThredUp**: Revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $77.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by around 100%. Active buyers grew by 17% to 1.47 million [10][11][12] - **Carvana**: Retail units sold increased by 41% year-over-year to 143,280 vehicles, with total revenue rising 42% to $4.84 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $601 million, reflecting a 12.4% margin [13][14][15] Top Detractors - **Monday.com**: Despite a 27% increase in revenue, the company reduced its second-half 2025 revenue guidance due to weaker performance marketing trends, causing investor concerns [20][21][22] - **Fiverr**: Results were below expectations, leading to a reduction in position size despite maintaining an attractive risk/reward profile [25][26] Portfolio Composition - The top 10 holdings comprise approximately 85% of the portfolio, including ThredUp, Monday.com, Carvana, Uber, Wayfair, DoorDash, First Advantage, Fiverr, Latham Group, and Medpace [27] Notable Changes - The fund exited positions in HelloFresh and Revolve due to management changes and reduced confidence in growth prospects, reallocating capital to more promising opportunities [29][30] Company Insights - **Medpace**: A leading contract research organization (CRO) focused on small and mid-sized biotech companies, showing strong revenue growth of 14.2% year-over-year to $603.3 million [31][18][35] - The company has a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a history of share repurchases during market downturns, enhancing long-term growth potential [34][35]