Group 1 - Carvana (CVNA) shares have increased by 2.4% over the past four weeks, closing at $176.32, with a mean price target of $276.88 indicating a potential upside of 57% [1] - The mean estimate is based on 16 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $45.35, where the lowest estimate is $200 (13.4% increase) and the highest is $340 (92.8% increase) [2] - Analysts show strong agreement on Carvana's ability to report better earnings than previously predicted, which supports the potential for stock upside [4][10] Group 2 - Recent trends indicate that four earnings estimates for Carvana have been revised higher in the last 30 days, leading to a 4.6% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [11] - Carvana holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting a strong potential upside [12] - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the stock's gain, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [12]

Carvana (CVNA) shares rallied 5% in the last trading session to close at $176.32. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 2.2% loss over the past four weeks.Carvana shares surged yesterday after the company announced its plan to develop a large-scale auction and reconditioning “Megasite” in Phoenix, AZ. This facility will enhance the dealership’s ability to process more vehicles and increase inventory ...

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Carvana (CVNA) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.Carvana currently has an average brokerage ...

Core Insights - Carvana (CVNA) has a strong history of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 155.80% [1][2] - The company reported earnings of $0.56 per share in the last quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 per share, resulting in a surprise of 133.33% [2] - In the previous quarter, Carvana's earnings were $0.64 per share against an expected $0.23, yielding a surprise of 178.26% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Carvana have been trending upward, influenced by its history of earnings surprises [5] - The stock has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +6.27%, indicating analysts' bullish sentiment regarding its earnings prospects [8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat [8] Earnings ESP and Market Behavior - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, but it reduces predictive power [8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - U.S. President Trump is imposing 25% tariffs on imported cars and key auto parts, expected to disrupt the auto industry and strain supply chains, leading to higher vehicle prices and potential demand weakening [1] - The rising prices of new cars may drive consumers to the used car market, initially benefiting the used car industry before potential price increases occur [1] Group 2: CarMax Analysis - CarMax, the largest used vehicle retailer in the U.S., retailed 765,572 used vehicles in fiscal 2024, down over 5% year over year, with revenues declining from $20.9 billion to $20.3 billion in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 [2][5] - The company is investing in strategic initiatives to enhance operations, including opening more offsite reconditioning and auction locations, and has seen a 50 basis points year-over-year improvement in retail used vehicle gross margin to 8.7% [3][2] - CarMax repurchased 4.3 million shares in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, with $2.04 billion remaining under its buyback authorization, reflecting strong capital return policies [4] Group 3: CarMax Financial Concerns - CarMax's cash position of $271.9 million is overshadowed by $1.59 billion in long-term debt, resulting in a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.75, significantly above the auto sector's average of 0.34 [5] - Sales growth remains sluggish, prompting the company to push back its 2 million-unit sales target from 2026 to as late as 2030, with an overall gross margin of 10.5% lagging behind the industry average of 28% [5] Group 4: Carvana Analysis - Carvana, the second-largest used car retailer in the U.S., has seen retail sales volumes rise, selling over 100,000 cars in each of the last three reported quarters, with a 50% year-over-year increase in retail units sold in the final quarter of 2024 [7] - The company achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion in 2024, with a 10.1% adjusted EBITDA margin, and anticipates further gains in 2025 supported by cost efficiencies and operational improvements [8] Group 5: Carvana Operational Improvements - Carvana has reduced costs related to retail reconditioning and inbound transport by in-sourcing services and optimizing logistics, which has expanded its retail gross profit per unit [9] - The acquisition of ADESA's U.S. operations has enhanced Carvana's logistics and reconditioning processes, increasing its reconditioning capacity from 1.3 million to a potential 3 million units annually [10] Group 6: Carvana Financial Concerns - Carvana carries $5.26 billion in long-term debt against $1.72 billion in cash, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.8, posing financial risks despite a recent debt restructuring deal [11] Group 7: Price Performance and Valuation - Year to date, Carvana shares have risen more than 4%, while CarMax stock has lost 3.5% [12] - Carvana's forward sales multiple is 2.54X, significantly above its median of 0.69X, while CarMax's forward sales multiple sits at 0.45X, slightly above its median of 0.43X [15] Group 8: Growth Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carvana's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 23% and 119%, respectively, while CarMax's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS estimates imply a year-over-year increase of 3.4% and 17% [14][16] - Carvana's superior growth trajectory, expanding margins, and strong sales momentum make it a more compelling investment choice compared to CarMax, which faces sluggish sales growth and lingering financial concerns [17][18]

With so much tariff-driven uncertainty on the horizon, smart investors are starting to think strategically as well as defensively. As it turns out, President Donald Trump wasn't bluffing about imposing tariffs on imported cars. On Wednesday the White House announced any carmaker looking to bring a new vehicle into the United States would be forking over an additional 25% of that automobile's value. This newest tariff is added to an already-lengthy list that includes several categories of industrial and cons ...

Company Performance - Carvana's stock closed at $203.95, reflecting a -0.45% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500, which lost 0.33% [1] - Over the past month, Carvana's shares have decreased by 11.93%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 have lost 6.29% and 4.03%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release is highly anticipated, with projected EPS of $0.69, indicating a significant increase of 268.29% year-over-year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $3.92 billion, representing a 27.93% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.49 per share and revenue at $16.86 billion, reflecting increases of 119.5% and 23.27% from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions indicate positive sentiment regarding Carvana's business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Carvana currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with a recent consensus EPS projection increase of 3.23% [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 58.77, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 22.68 [6] - Carvana's PEG ratio stands at 1.24, aligning with the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, ranks in the top 27% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7] - The top 50% rated industries tend to outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

I first heard of Carvana ( CVNA ) shortly after it became public in April 2017 because of its automated car vending machine , which I always thought was a bit gimmicky. The company became one of the biggest beneficiariesI have been a Merchant Seaman that has traveled the world for over 30 years. Within the last 15 years, I developed a very intense interest in investing. I learned a lot of what I know about investing from The MF. Also because I have a engineering background, I often tend to gravitate to Tech ...

This account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. We look for innovations in a business model that will cause a stock to change dramatically. Associated with SA contributor Elijah Buell.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial lo ...

Carvana (CVNA -7.46%) has weathered unprecedented circumstances to find itself with an opportunity to take meaningful market share in the used car industry.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of March 24, 2025. The video was published on March 26, 2025. ...