Core Viewpoint - Disney is expected to report earnings soon, with mixed sentiments about its performance in the streaming sector and overall business operations. Group 1: Company Performance - Disney has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and the broader communication sector, down approximately 1.6% year-to-date [3]. - The company has been trending lower, failing to break above a resistance level around 125, and has retreated to support near 109, with further support at 102 [4][5]. - Moving averages are clustered around 110 to 111, indicating a lack of clear trend direction [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The volume profile indicates that the 111-112 level is a key trading area, with significant trading activity noted [6]. - The expected move for the upcoming February 20th expiration shows higher volatility compared to subsequent expirations, making it an interesting target for trading strategies [7]. - A proposed trade setup involves a short put vertical at a $1 credit, with significant support near the 105-100 level, reflecting a neutral to bullish outlook [8]. Group 3: Risk and Reward - The risk-reward ratio for the proposed trade is less favorable than typical, with a maximum profit of $100 and a maximum loss of $400, indicating a more high-probability trade [8][9]. - The break-even point for the trade is at 104, which represents a 6.3% downside from the current levels, with an expected move of 9.8% during the same time frame [9].

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) will release earnings for the first quarter before the opening bell on Monday, Feb. 2.Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.58 per share. That's down from $1.76 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Disney's quarterly revenue is $25.6 billion (it reported $24.69 billion last year), according to Benzinga Pro.On Jan. 16, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet maintained Walt Disney with a Buy and lowered the price target from $145 to $140.With ...

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) will release earnings for the first quarter before the opening bell on Monday, Feb. 2.Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.58 per share. That's down from $1.76 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Disney's quarterly revenue is $25.6 billion (it reported $24.69 billion last year), according to Benzinga Pro.On Jan. 16, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet maintained Walt Disney with a Buy and lowered the price target from $145 to $140.With ...

Core Insights - The theatrical industry is heavily reliant on established franchises to drive box office sales, with a goal to surpass $10 billion domestically for the first time since the pandemic [4][5][8] - Despite the presence of popular franchises, some major releases are underperforming, raising concerns about the industry's ability to reach its financial targets [5][10] - The trend of franchise films dominating the box office has been consistent, with the top 10 films representing an average of 44% of the total domestic box office post-pandemic [9] Industry Trends - The number of films produced for theatrical release has declined significantly since the pandemic, with a 20% drop in wide releases from 2019 to 2024 [19] - Studios are increasingly focusing on familiar intellectual properties (IP) as safe bets, leading to a reliance on franchise films for box office success [8][19] - The shift in consumer behavior towards streaming has impacted the theatrical market, with audiences becoming more selective about what they watch [21] Franchise Performance - Recent franchise films like "Wicked: For Good" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash" have underperformed compared to their predecessors, indicating a potential decline in audience interest [11][14] - The Marvel Cinematic Universe has faced challenges in maintaining quality and audience engagement following its peak with "Avengers: Endgame" [15] - Successful franchises, such as the Dune series, have managed to attract both core fans and new audiences, demonstrating the importance of balancing niche appeal with broader market reach [17][18] Box Office Dynamics - The top 10 films in 2019 accounted for nearly 40% of the annual domestic box office, while post-pandemic, this figure has risen to 44% [9] - The decline in mid-budget films has created a gap in theatrical content, as many have transitioned to streaming platforms [20] - Studios are adapting by "eventizing" film releases, promoting them as must-see experiences, particularly for franchise films [22][23] Consumer Engagement - Major studios are leveraging their franchises for merchandise and theme park experiences, creating additional revenue streams beyond box office sales [24][26] - Fans of franchises are eager for products that celebrate their favorite characters, leading to a diverse range of merchandise offerings [25] - The enduring popularity of franchises like Star Wars demonstrates their cultural significance, even in the absence of new theatrical releases [28]

Core Insights - Walt Disney's stock closed at $111.58, showing a +1.84% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 0.13% [1] - The stock has decreased by 3.7% over the past month, underperforming the Consumer Discretionary sector's loss of 4.91% and lagging behind the S&P 500's gain of 0.78% [1] Earnings Performance - Walt Disney is set to release its earnings on February 2, 2026, with an expected EPS of $1.56, reflecting an 11.36% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate projects revenue of $25.93 billion, indicating a 5.01% increase from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $6.58 per share and revenue at $100.82 billion, showing increases of +10.96% and +6.77% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Walt Disney are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [3] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Walt Disney as 3 (Hold) [5] - Over the past month, there has been a 0.25% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate [5] Valuation Metrics - Walt Disney is trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 16.65, which is in line with the industry average [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.53, compared to the industry average of 1.09, indicating a higher valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7] Industry Context - The Media Conglomerates industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 160, placing it in the bottom 35% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

With a market cap of $197.5 billion, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is a global entertainment leader operating across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific through its Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences segments. It creates and distributes film, television, streaming, sports content, and immersive experiences through iconic brands, platforms, and theme parks worldwide. Shares of the Burbank, California-based company have lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. DIS stock has dropp ...

1月22日，美国迪士尼发布2025财年（2024年10月1日至2025年9月30日）业绩，其中文旅板块表现如何？反映了文旅市场的哪些变化？迪士尼面临的困境 是什么？ 迪士尼客流量稳中有降 迪士尼有三大业务板块，乐园被归入体验业务，体验业务约占迪士尼总营收的38%。其他两块业务分别为以流媒体为主的影音娱乐和电视体育频道。迪士 尼2025财年总营收944.25亿美元，同比增长3.61%，归母净利润124亿美元，同比增长149.48%。 其中，体验业务营收361.56亿美元，同比增长5.87%，营业利润99.95亿美元，同比增长7.8%。这个数据的成色如何？应该说，并不算理想。 迪士尼的体验业务并表了全球除东京迪士尼以外的5座迪士尼项目。2025财年，这5座乐园的总门票收入117.07亿美元，同比增长4.8%。客流量方面，迪士 尼未公布每座乐园的客流量，仅公布了客流同比变动。其中，美国本土两座迪士尼客流同比下滑1%，上海迪士尼、香港迪士尼和巴黎迪士尼三个海外项 目客流量增长1%。两者综合，2025财年迪士尼乐园的整体客流量稳中有降。 需要指出的是，"稳中有降"也是迪士尼努力维持的结果。自2023年后，多座迪士尼乐园 ...

Core Insights - Disney's franchise-driven strategy is transforming its revenue base into a more stable and diversified growth engine [1] Revenue Generation - The company is diversifying its revenue streams beyond box office performance, monetizing intellectual property across streaming, consumer products, and Experiences [2] - Recent franchise hits, such as Lilo & Stitch and Predator: Badlands, have generated strong theatrical results, driving rapid adoption on Disney+ and robust merchandise sales [2] - In the past two years, Disney produced four franchise films that grossed over $1 billion each, more than any other studio, showcasing consistent franchise output [2] Future Outlook - Disney's pipeline of established franchises enhances revenue visibility, with upcoming releases like Toy Story 5 and Avengers: Doomsday expected to boost theatrical revenues and streaming engagement [3] - The acquisition of rights to the Impossible Creatures book series positions Disney to develop new storytelling franchises [3] Experiences Division - The Experiences division extends the lifespan of franchises through theme park attractions and global expansion, broadening the audience base and revenue generation duration [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects revenue growth of 6.7% for fiscal 2026 and 5% for fiscal 2027, indicating rising stability from franchise-led growth [4] Competitive Landscape - The franchise landscape is becoming more competitive, with Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix emerging as serious challengers to Disney's IP strength [5] - Warner Bros. Discovery is rebuilding its studios and relaunching DC with a cohesive roadmap, integrating hit films into HBO Max to drive engagement and profitability [6] - Netflix is building scalable global IP through data-driven content creation and has a massive reach of over 325 million paid memberships, challenging Disney's dominance [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Disney shares have fallen 7.8% over the past six months, compared to a decline of 7.4% in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and 12.3% in the Zacks Media Conglomerates industry [8] - DIS stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 16.22X, compared to the industry's 17.86X, with a Value Score of B [11] - Earnings projections for fiscal 2026 are $6.58 per share and $7.31 for fiscal 2027, with slight declines in estimates over the past 30 days [14]

Core Insights - The Walt Disney Company is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 2, with expected revenues of $25.93 billion, reflecting a 5.01% growth year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 11.36% to $1.56 [1][2] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Disney achieved an earnings surprise of 7.77%, consistently beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 15.79% [2] - The consensus estimate for Entertainment revenues is $11.6 billion, indicating a 6.8% year-over-year increase [9] - Direct-to-consumer entertainment operating income is projected at approximately $375 million for the quarter, driven by premium content launches and steady subscriber growth [11] Segment Guidance - Disney anticipates double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025, with the Entertainment segment expected to see double-digit operating income growth, primarily in the second half of the year [3] - The Sports segment is projected to achieve low-single digit operating income growth, while the Experiences segment is expected to deliver high-single digit growth, also weighted towards the latter half of the year [3] Challenges and Headwinds - The theatrical business is facing significant challenges, with a forecasted $400 million adverse impact compared to the previous year due to tough comparisons with blockbuster performances [12] - Linear networks are projected to experience a $140 million decline in political advertising revenues, compounded by the absence of contributions from Star India [13] Market Position and Valuation - Disney's shares have declined by 7.8% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which saw a decline of 7.5% [17] - The company trades at a forward P/E of approximately 16.22x, below the industry average of 17.86x, indicating a discounted valuation despite streaming profitability improvements [19] Investment Considerations - The investment case for Disney is mixed, with streaming profitability gains offset by theatrical pressures and cruise expansion costs, alongside declining political advertising revenues [22] - Management's guidance suggests a focus on second-half growth for fiscal 2026, creating near-term uncertainty for investors [22]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Walt Disney (DIS) will report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.4%, while revenues are expected to reach $25.93 billion, an increase of 5% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.6% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly linked to short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenue- Entertainment- Content Sales/Licensing and Other' to be $2.46 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.9% [5]. - The average prediction for 'Revenue- Entertainment' is $11.61 billion, suggesting a 6.8% increase year over year [5]. - 'Revenue- Entertainment- Linear Networks' is expected to reach $2.26 billion, indicating a decline of 13.5% compared to the previous year [5]. - The estimated 'Revenue- Sports' is projected at $4.92 billion, reflecting a 1.4% increase from the year-ago quarter [6]. Subscriber Metrics - The number of paid subscribers for Hulu (SVOD Only) is expected to be 58.12 million, up from 49.00 million a year ago [6]. - For Hulu (Live TV + SVOD), the consensus estimate stands at 5.06 million, compared to 4.60 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - The number of paid subscribers for Disney+ (International) is projected to reach 73.29 million, up from 67.80 million a year ago [8]. - The number of paid subscribers for Disney+ (Domestic) is expected to be 59.50 million, compared to 56.80 million last year [8]. Revenue per Subscriber - Analysts predict that the 'Average monthly revenue per paid subscriber - Disney+ - Domestic' will be $8.29, up from $7.99 in the same quarter last year [7]. - The 'Average monthly revenue per paid subscriber - Hulu - Live TV + SVOD' is expected to be $98.20, slightly down from $99.22 a year ago [9]. - For Hulu (SVOD Only), the average monthly revenue per paid subscriber is projected to be $11.95, down from $12.52 last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Disney shares have returned -3.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.8% [11]. - Disney currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [11].