Key Takeaways Dexcom saw record new patient starts and expanded T2D access coverage in Q1 2025. Dexcom's 15-day G7 and OTC Stelo drive innovation and support long-term commercial growth. Dexcom faces margin pressure from freight costs, inflation and an ongoing FDA warning letter.DexCom (DXCM) delivered robust first-quarter 2025 results, underpinned by strong category demand, record new patient growth and meaningful progress in its long-term strategic initiatives. As the year progresses, several key growth ...

Investors typically want to beat the market over the long run. Though it's not an easy task, it certainly is possible with the right companies. Let's consider two corporations that could help you do better than average in the next decade: Eli Lilly (LLY -0.12%) and DexCom (DXCM -0.28%). 1. Eli Lilly Eli Lilly has been one of the best-performing pharmaceutical giants in the past 10 years. Though that doesn't guarantee future success, it's worth highlighting what has led to the company's strong showing. Lilly ...

Core Viewpoint - DexCom, Inc. is positioned for growth due to its strong product portfolio and favorable coverage decisions, despite facing competition risks [1][15]. Company Overview - DexCom has a market capitalization of $33.93 billion and projects a 23.1% growth rate over the next five years [2]. - The company has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 0.47% [2]. Product Demand and Performance - The G7 system has shown robust momentum, driving revenue performance and improving gross margins [4]. - The One+ system has performed well in Europe, with recent coverage expansions in key markets like Japan and France contributing to growth [5]. - DexCom's U.S. revenues increased by 15% year-over-year to $750.5 million, while international revenues improved by 7% to $285.5 million [12]. New Product Launches - A 15-day G7 sensor is set to launch in the second half of 2025, expected to enhance user experience and margins [6]. - The introduction of Stelo, the first over-the-counter CGM, is gaining traction among type 2 diabetes and health-conscious consumers [8]. - A partnership with OURA aims to integrate glucose biosensor data with biometric insights, with the first app expected in 2025 [9]. Coverage and Market Access - As of January 2025, DexCom secured coverage with two of the three largest pharmacy benefit managers for all diabetes patients, leading to a significant increase in new starts from the type 2 non-insulin population [10]. - The company anticipates revenues of $4.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [13]. Financial Performance - Adjusted gross profit for the first quarter of 2025 was $596.2 million, up 4.8% from the previous year [12]. - The consensus estimate for second-quarter revenues is $1.12 billion, indicating an 11.8% improvement year-over-year [16]. Competitive Landscape - DexCom faces rebate pressure in the U.S. market, which has impacted revenue growth despite strong demand [14]. - Rising competition in the Type 1 diabetes market, particularly from pump-integrated CGM systems, poses challenges [15].

Industry Overview - The health and fitness industry is experiencing significant growth driven by increased public interest in wellness and healthier lifestyles, leading to higher demand for gyms, supplements, and holistic services [2] - Technological advancements, particularly wearable devices and digital platforms, are facilitating progress tracking and motivation for individuals [2] - Concerns regarding obesity, chronic illnesses, and mental health are further encouraging the adoption of fitness-focused lifestyles [2] Market Projections - The global health and wellness market is projected to reach approximately $1.1 trillion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.33% from 2025 [4] - The focus on preventive care, corporate wellness programs, and government initiatives is sustaining market momentum [4] - The rise of boutique fitness and premium wellness clubs is creating opportunities for specialized offerings, as consumers increasingly view health as an integrated concept encompassing fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being [4] Key Players - **Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)**: Specializes in fresh, natural, and organic products, with over 23% of its revenue in 2024 coming from its private-label brand. The company operates 440 stores across 24 states and is expanding with a focus on smaller-format locations [7][8] - **Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)**: A digital health platform offering personalized solutions for various health conditions, including weight management. The company has launched new products and capabilities to support long-term growth in the wellness segment [10][12] - **DexCom (DXCM)**: Focuses on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes management and metabolic health. The company is expanding its reach into wellness and preventive care through strategic product development and partnerships [14][15] Investment Opportunities - The growing emphasis on wellness presents long-term investment opportunities in fitness, nutrition, and digital health services, with companies like Sprouts, Hims & Hers, and DexCom positioned as strong candidates for investment [5]

Core Viewpoint - DexCom (DXCM) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [3][5]. - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - The upgrade for DexCom reflects an improvement in its underlying business, suggesting that investor sentiment may drive the stock price higher [4]. - DexCom is projected to earn $2.02 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.2% [7]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - DexCom's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9].

Industry Overview - Health and fitness companies focus on improving physical well-being through products and services such as gym memberships, fitness equipment, nutritional supplements, and wellness programs [1] - The industry benefits from consistent demand driven by growing global awareness of health issues and the importance of physical fitness, supported by rising rates of lifestyle-related diseases and a growing emphasis on preventive healthcare [3] - Diverse revenue streams, including subscriptions, product sales, and services, make the health and fitness sector attractive to investors seeking long-term gains [4] Investment Opportunities - Five recommended stocks in the health and fitness space with favorable Zacks Rank include Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM), DexCom Inc. (DXCM), Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS), United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), and GoodRx Holdings Inc. (GDRX) [2] Company Highlights Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) - Focus on product innovation, e-commerce, private label offerings, and targeted marketing has led to better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2024 results, with both top and bottom lines growing year over year [6] - Expected net sales growth of 10.5% to 12.5% and comparable store sales increase of 4.5% to 6.5% for 2025 [7] - Projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 13.7% and 33.6%, respectively, for the current year [8] DexCom Inc. (DXCM) - Benefiting from strong contributions from the Sensor segment and both domestic and international revenue growth [10] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 14.3% and 23.2%, respectively, for the current year [11] Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS) - Addresses a $360 million U.S. total addressable market across various healthcare specialties, with over 2 million subscribers driving recurring revenues [12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 58.5% and more than 100%, respectively, for the current year [13] United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI) - Demonstrating strong growth supported by wholesale momentum and demand for natural and organic products [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.9% and more than 100%, respectively, for the current year [16] GoodRx Holdings Inc. (GDRX) - Offers a price comparison platform for prescription drugs, enabling consumers to save on purchases [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 4% and 14.7%, respectively, for the current year [19]

Core Insights - The analysis focuses on DexCom, Inc. (NASDAQ: DXCM) following the release of Q1 2025 earnings on May 1st, 2025, maintaining a buy rating based on strong fundamentals and potential value opportunities [1] Group 1 - The company is led by Michael (Mike) Dion, an FP&A leader with diverse finance experience across various industries, which adds credibility to its financial management [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying value opportunities where market reactions to news may be disproportionate, highlighting the importance of cash flow for both companies and investors [1]

Core Insights - DexCom, Inc. has shown strong performance in the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) market, with significant financial results in Q1 2025, indicating a solid growth trajectory for the year [1][12] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached $1.036 billion, marking a 12% increase year-over-year and a 14% organic growth [2] - U.S. market revenue increased by 15% to $750.5 million, while international revenue grew by 7% reported and 12% organic to $285.5 million [3] - GAAP operating income for Q1 2025 was $133.7 million (12.9% of revenue), and Non-GAAP operating income was $143.1 million (13.8% of revenue) [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was $230.4 million, representing 22.2% of revenue [5] Market Expansion and Innovation - The launch of the Dexcom G7 15-Day system is anticipated in H2 2025, promising extended wear time and improved accuracy [6] - The Stelo OTC biosensor, launched in Q1 2025, has gained over 200,000 app downloads, indicating strong interest among Type 2 diabetes and wellness-focused users [6] - Coverage expansion includes two major PBMs covering Dexcom CGM for all diabetes patients, potentially reaching nearly six million Type 2 non-insulin users by year-end [7] Strategic Guidance - DexCom maintains a full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $4.60 billion, reflecting a projected 14% increase over 2024 [8] - Non-GAAP gross profit margin guidance has been revised to approximately 62%, down from 64-65%, due to near-term investments [9] - The company reaffirmed its Non-GAAP operating margin guidance at approximately 21% and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance at approximately 30% [10] Financial Position - DexCom announced a $750 million share repurchase program, concluding Q1 2025 with $2.7 billion in cash and marketable securities [11]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is experiencing its longest winning streak since 2004, achieving a nine-day winning streak with a gain of 10.2%, erasing losses from the early April downturn triggered by tariff announcements [1][9] - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has gained 7.6% over the past nine days, with notable contributions from stocks such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Netflix (NFLX), Quanta Services Inc. (PWR), GE Vernova (GEV), and DexCom Inc. (DXCM) [2][9] Key Drivers - Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with indications of renewed negotiations on tariffs, have positively influenced market sentiment [3] - Strong quarterly earnings from major tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) have bolstered optimism in the tech sector, highlighting robust demand for AI amidst economic uncertainties [4] - A positive jobs report for April showed the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, indicating resilience in the labor market [5] SPY Fund Details - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holds 503 stocks, with no single stock exceeding 7% of total assets, ensuring a balanced portfolio across sectors [6] - The fund has an assets under management (AUM) of $569 billion and charges an annual fee of 9 basis points, with an average daily trading volume of 104 million shares [7] Best-Performing Stocks - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has surged approximately 42% over the past month, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 34.1% for the year [10] - Netflix (NFLX) has increased by 23.6% in the same period, with a solid earnings estimate revision and an estimated growth of 27.74% [11] - Quanta Services (PWR) has gained 21.4% over the month, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 13.82% despite a slight negative revision [12] - GE Vernova (GEV) climbed 19.8%, supported by a significant earnings estimate revision and an estimated growth of 28.67% [13] - DexCom (DXCM) also rose 19.8%, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 23.17% despite a minor negative revision [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a value-focused investment strategy, highlighting the importance of fundamental research in sectors such as chemicals, homebuilders, building materials, industrials, and metals & mining [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company focuses on investing in stocks that are undervalued and have potential catalysts in the near future [1]. - The investment horizon is typically between one quarter to two years, indicating a medium-term approach [1]. Group 2: Experience and Background - The company has over three years of active investing experience, including roles as a buy-side analyst at a boutique research firm and family offices [1].