上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 08 月 27 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——销量结构改善，毛利率超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 94.15 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9148.66 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 106.00/27.95 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,794.97 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,557.79 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0969 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -5% 95% 195% 295% HSCEI 小鹏汽车-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresear ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 小鹏汽车（XPEV.US/9868.HK）：汽车毛利率 持续改善，预期四季度实现盈亏平衡 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） 目标价（港元） 106.9 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（港元） 91.90 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.55-106 总市值（百万港元） 175,208 近 90 日均成交额（百万港元） 1,631.6 注：股价截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日收盘 市场预期区间 USD 17.0 USD 23.8 USD 31.0 USD 27.4 HKD 91.9 重申小鹏汽车的"买入"评级。上调小鹏汽车（XPEV.US）目标价至 27.4 美元，潜在升幅 15%；上调小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK）目标价至 106.9 港 元，潜在升幅 16%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Summary of XPeng Inc. (XPEV/9868.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XPeng Inc. (XPEV/9868.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: Total revenue met expectations, with vehicle gross profit and EBIT exceeding estimates by +17% and +12% respectively, indicating effective cost reduction efforts [1][2] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Vehicle gross margin improved to 14.3% in 2Q25, up +8.0 percentage points year-over-year and +3.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to product mix changes and supply chain optimization [7] - **Future Margin Outlook**: Vehicle gross margin expected to increase to 15.5% in 3Q25 and 17.7% in 4Q25, with total gross margin projected to reach high-teens in 4Q25 [2][7] Sales Volume and Pricing - **Sales Volume Guidance**: Management expects to deliver 116,000 units in 3Q25 and 142,000 units in 4Q25, driven by new model launches [2][7] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: ASP is projected to decline by -2% in 3Q25 due to lower pricing of new models but is expected to improve by +12% in 4Q25 due to product mix optimization [2] - **Product Portfolio**: XPeng's current offerings span the Rmb100k-500k price range, with new models set to launch at Rmb300k and Rmb400k levels [7] New Model Launches - **Upcoming Models**: New P7 launching on August 27, expected to rank among the top 3 in its price segment. The X9 EREV model is set to launch in 4Q25 [4][7] - **Increased Launch Frequency**: XPeng plans to introduce 10 new and refreshed models annually from 2024 to 2026, significantly increasing from 1-2 models per year previously [10] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - **Volkswagen Cooperation**: XPeng reported Rmb1.4 billion in revenue from services in 2Q25, with expectations for sequential growth in 3Q/4Q. A new agreement with Volkswagen aims to expand technical collaboration into ICE/PHEV platforms [7] Research and Development - **R&D Investment**: Full-year R&D expenses for 2025 raised to Rmb9 billion, focusing on AI and technology advancements [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - **Market Growth**: XPeng's overseas sales volume increased by +150% year-over-year in 2Q25, with production starting at its Indonesia factory [9] - **Smart Driving Technology**: The Ultra version of the G7 accounts for 50% of its sales, featuring advanced AI capabilities. XPeng aims to lead in smart driving functions by 2026 [9] - **Robotaxi and Humanoid Robots**: Plans for mass production of L4 capable vehicles and humanoid robots are set for 2026, with trial operations for robotaxis expected to begin [9] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating**: XPeng is rated as a "Buy" due to its growth trajectory, improved product competitiveness, and cost structure. The 12-month price target remains at US$24/HK$94, indicating an upside potential of +18% and +17% respectively [3][11] Risks - **Potential Risks**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume, increased price competition, and weaker market demand [11] Additional Important Information - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $19.3 billion [8] - **Revenue Estimates**: Adjusted revenue estimates for 2025-2027 reflect a slight decrease in volume estimates but an increase in gross profit margin [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险提示： 新车订单/销量不及预期；毛利率爬坡不及预期；市场竞争加剧等。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 2Q25毛利率表现亮眼，ASP与毛利率有望逐季改善 1）2Q25小鹏汽车业务收入同比+147.6%/环比+17.5%至168.8亿元（ASP同环比-27.5%/+7.1%至16.4万元，交付 量同环比+241.6%/+9.8%至10.3万辆），汽车业务毛利率同比+7.9pcts/环比+3.8pcts至14.3%。2）2Q25 R&D费 用率同比-6.0pcts/环比-0.5pcts至12.1%，SG&A费用率同环比-7.5pcts/-0.4pcts至11.9%。3）截至2Q25，在手现金 等价物合计约475.7亿元。我们判断，2Q25公司毛利率表现亮眼，主要受益于Mona M ...

图源：小鹏汽车财报 导语：A级车市场救了"小鹏"。 8月19日，小鹏汽车（9868.HK）交出了2025年上半年的成绩单。表面上看，各项数据颇为亮眼：上半年汽车交付量飙升至约19.72万辆，较去 年同期约5.2万辆增长了279%；总收入达到340.9亿元，相比去年同期的146.6亿元上升132.5% 。 但拆解数据后不难发现，销量增长主要来自去年8月推出的MONA M03，这款A级轿车已成为小鹏销量、业绩增长的核心驱动力之一。 在MONA M03之前，小鹏汽车主要对标中高端车型市场，鲜有低于15万元的车型。但由于销量始终低位徘徊，难以通过规模化量产提升利润，导 致公司毛利率一直承压，亏损加剧。 而MONA M03的推出，意味着小鹏汽车开始通过" A级车"走量，先保住现金流，再发力中高端市场。实际上，很多新能源车企都在尝试这一打 法，这也导致15万元以下纯电轿车市场竞争越发激烈。 图源：懂车帝 小鹏汽车董事长、CEO何小鹏此前曾表示，希望MONA M03的月均销量能从1.5万辆提升至2万辆。 何小鹏希望提升销量的底气，可能来自"低价策略"。MONA M03发布时，曾表示售价在10—15万元，但懂车帝数据显示，经 ...

1、营收：25Q2公司交付汽车103181辆，同/环比+241.6%/+9.8%，Q2营收182.7亿元，同/环比 +125.3%/+15.6%。其中汽车业务营收168.8亿元，同/环比+147.5%/+17.5%；服务业务营收13.9亿元，同/ 环比+7.8%/-3.5%。我们计算Q2单车ASP16.4万元，同/环比-27.5%/+7%。25年H1公司累计交付19.7万 辆，同比+279%营收340.8亿元，同比+132.5%，我们计算单车ASP15.8万元，同比-33.3% 2、费用：Q2研发/SGNA费用分别为22.1/21.7亿元，研发/SGNA费用率分别为12.1%/11.9%，环 比-0.4pct/-0.5pct。 业绩点评： 8月19日，小鹏汽车公布25Q2财报： 机构：国金证券 研究员：姚遥 3、利润：Q2毛利率17.3%，同/环比+3.3pct/-1.7pct：其中汽车业务毛利率14.3%，同/环比 +7.8pct/+3.8pct：其他及服务业务毛利率53.6%，同/环比-0.3pct/-12.9pct。Q2归母亏损4.8亿元，我们计 算公司Q2单车亏损0.5万元，同环比均大幅缩窄。25H1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is on track to achieve breakeven in Q4 2025, supported by improved vehicle margins and a solid delivery scale, despite increased R&D guidance in the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, vehicle sales increased by 17.5% QoQ to RMB16.9 billion, driven by an improved product mix and a rise in average selling price (ASP) by 7.1% QoQ to RMB164,000 [2][3]. - The vehicle margin expanded significantly from 10.5% in Q1 to 14.3% in Q2, aided by an optimized product portfolio and cost-cutting measures [3]. - Non-GAAP net losses narrowed from RMB426 million in Q1 to RMB385 million in Q2, exceeding expectations [4]. Group 2: Delivery and Production Guidance - The company guided for Q3 2025 sales volume of 113,000 to 118,000 units, aligning with forecasts for average monthly sales of 38,000 to 41,000 units [5]. - The company anticipates a robust year in 2026 with a higher number of new and revamped models, including the introduction of two SUV models in the MONA series [5]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The CEO outlined a roadmap for the growth of the robotics business, including plans for mass production of L4 autonomous driving vehicles by 2026 and humanoid robots in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The company is also exploring external supply opportunities for its self-developed AI Turing chip, which could diversify revenue streams and enhance its technological leadership [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Forecasts - The sales volume forecast for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 460,000 units, while the 2026 delivery forecast has been increased to 630,000 units [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB82.5 billion and RMB118.1 billion, respectively, reflecting the updated sales volume forecasts [8].

汽车/乘用车 小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK) 产品大周期势能有望向上，大众合作或增厚长期业绩 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 80.450 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 106.00/26.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,533.78 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,533.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.07 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 19.06 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 73.0 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 小鹏汽车-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 G7 有望领衔上行，2025H2 有赖品牌上探 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.3.20 《小鹏汽车——智能化领军，涅槃重 生—公司深度报告》-2024.12.20 《2025 年车型矩阵丰富、降本及出口 或驱动盈利拐点 —港股公司信息更 新报告》-2024.11.21 ——港 ...

2025 年 08 月 20 日 8 月 19 日，小鹏汽车公布 25Q2 财报： 1、营收：25Q2 公司交付汽车 103181 辆，同/环比+241.6%/+9.8%， Q2 营收 182.7 亿元，同/环比+125.3%/+15.6%。其中汽车业务营收 168.8 亿元，同/环比+147.5%/+17.5%；服务业务营收 13.9 亿元，同 /环比+7.8%/-3.5%。我们计算 Q2 单车 ASP 16.4 万元，同/环比- 27.5%/+7%。25 年 H1 公司累计交付 19.7 万辆，同比+279%；营收 340.8 亿元，同比+132.5%，我们计算单车 ASP 15.8 万元，同比- 33.3% 2、费用：Q2 研发/SGNA 费用分别为 22.1/21.7 亿元，研发/SGNA 费 用率分别为 12.1%/11.9%，环比-0.4pct/-0.5pct。 3、利润：Q2 毛利率 17.3%，同/环比+3.3pct/-1.7pct；其中汽车业 务毛利率 14.3%，同/环比+7.8pct/+3.8pct；其他及服务业务毛利率 53.6%，同/环比-0.3pct/-12.9pct。Q2 归母亏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant recovery and growth in its second quarter of 2025, achieving record highs in multiple key performance indicators, including sales, revenue, gross margin, and cash reserves [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [5][6]. - The company delivered 10.32 million vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241.6% [3][5]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating improved cost control and pricing power [5][6]. - Cash reserves increased by over 22.9 billion yuan to 475.7 billion yuan, providing a strong financial buffer for future operations [2][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 197,200 vehicles in the first half of 2025, nearly 3.8 times the volume from the same period last year, achieving 52% of its annual target of 380,000 vehicles [3][5]. - Despite strong sales, the product mix shows an imbalance, with sedans dominating sales while SUVs lag behind [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional appeal, moving beyond just technical specifications to include design and user experience [11][12][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The electric vehicle industry in China is entering a new phase of profitability, with competitors like Li Auto and Zeekr also reporting improved financial results [7][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning itself to achieve profitability by reducing losses significantly, with a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down from 12.8 billion yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [8][10]. - The company aims to establish a strong competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market, emphasizing both technological advancements and emotional engagement with consumers [12][15].