浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 小鹏汽车（XPEV.US/9868.HK）：汽车毛利率 持续改善，预期四季度实现盈亏平衡 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） 目标价（港元） 106.9 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（港元） 91.90 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.55-106 总市值（百万港元） 175,208 近 90 日均成交额（百万港元） 1,631.6 注：股价截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日收盘 市场预期区间 USD 17.0 USD 23.8 USD 31.0 USD 27.4 HKD 91.9 重申小鹏汽车的"买入"评级。上调小鹏汽车（XPEV.US）目标价至 27.4 美元，潜在升幅 15%；上调小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK）目标价至 106.9 港 元，潜在升幅 16%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

机构：长江证券 研究员：高伊楠/张扬 销量结构持续改善，带来单车收入和盈利能力提升，汽车业务毛利率超预期，达14.3%。 汽车业务，2025Q2 出海叠加G6、G9、X9 等高单价车型改款上市交付，销量结构持续优化。2025Q2 交 付量为10.3 万辆， 同比+241.6% ， 环比+9.8% ， 其中MONAM03/G6/P7+/G9/X9 分别交付 3.9/2.4/2.1/1.0/0.75 万辆， 占比分别达到38.0%/23.7%/20.1%/10.1%/7.2%，MONA M03 占比环比下降 12.1pct，G6/G9/X9 占比环比提升9.7pct/4.1pct/3.5pct。根据中汽协，小鹏2025 年Q2 出海销量1.1 万辆， 同比+150.2%，环比+45.6%。汽车业务收入168.8 亿元，同比+147.6%，环比+17.5%，单车收入17.7 万 元，环比+5.3%，销量结构优化提振单车收入。Q2 汽车业务毛利率为14.3%，同比+8.0pct，环比 +3.9pct，Q2 规模效应提升叠加成本下降，汽车毛利率持续提升。 服务收入，大众服务收入持续增厚公司毛利率。2025Q2 公司服务 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (09868) [1] Core Views - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q2 2025 revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with a Q2 gross margin of 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - The company’s gross margin reached a historical high, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9, while the sales proportion of the lower-priced Mona M03 decreased from 50% in Q1 2025 to 38% in Q2 2025 [6] - The Q3 delivery guidance is conservative, with expected deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 142.8% to 153.6% [6] - The potential of Xiaopeng's extended-range vehicles is still to be fully realized, with the upcoming X9 model expected to alleviate range anxiety and enhance gross margins [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new P7 pricing and the performance of extended-range vehicles in shaping the company's growth trajectory [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 76.99 billion, 116.42 billion, and 142.15 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth rates of 88.4%, 51.2%, and 22.1% [8] - The net profit forecast shows a turnaround from a loss of 1.61 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 3.95 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 222% [8] - The report anticipates a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of approximately 200.4 billion HKD and a target share price of 106 HKD [6][8]

机构：交银国际 研究员：陈庆/李柳晓 汽车毛利率超预期。2Q25 小鹏汽车营收 182.7 亿元 （人民币，下同），环比升15.6%，略低于市场和 我们预期。汽车销量 10.3 万辆，环比增 9.8%。受车型结构影响，G6/G9/X9 占比环比上升，而低价M03 占比下降影响，单价ASP16.4 万元，环比升1.1 万元，基本符合预期。在单价和车型结构改变、及规模 效应下，汽车毛利率14.3%，环比大幅改善3.9 个百分点，超市场和我们预期。研发/销售费用环比增 11.4%，均低于收入增长，占收比环比略降。2 季度公司净亏损4.8 亿元/non-GAAP 净亏损 3.8 亿元，亏 损按季进一步收窄。 公司预计3Q25 营收为 196 亿-210 亿元，按中位数环比增长~11.9%。预计交付量为 11.3 万至 11.8 万 辆，按中位数环比增长~11.1%。收入和交付指引隐含的单价预期~17 万元，环比提升 0.6 万元，反映3 季度车型结构或进一步改善，毛利率环比亦可能进一步改善。同时小鹏维持4 季度盈利的指引。 单价、毛利率有望持续边际向上，看好后续一车双能平台车型对利润的正面贡献。全新一代 P7 已亮相 ...

1、营收：25Q2公司交付汽车103181辆，同/环比+241.6%/+9.8%，Q2营收182.7亿元，同/环比 +125.3%/+15.6%。其中汽车业务营收168.8亿元，同/环比+147.5%/+17.5%；服务业务营收13.9亿元，同/ 环比+7.8%/-3.5%。我们计算Q2单车ASP16.4万元，同/环比-27.5%/+7%。25年H1公司累计交付19.7万 辆，同比+279%营收340.8亿元，同比+132.5%，我们计算单车ASP15.8万元，同比-33.3% 2、费用：Q2研发/SGNA费用分别为22.1/21.7亿元，研发/SGNA费用率分别为12.1%/11.9%，环 比-0.4pct/-0.5pct。 业绩点评： 8月19日，小鹏汽车公布25Q2财报： 机构：国金证券 研究员：姚遥 3、利润：Q2毛利率17.3%，同/环比+3.3pct/-1.7pct：其中汽车业务毛利率14.3%，同/环比 +7.8pct/+3.8pct：其他及服务业务毛利率53.6%，同/环比-0.3pct/-12.9pct。Q2归母亏损4.8亿元，我们计 算公司Q2单车亏损0.5万元，同环比均大幅缩窄。25H1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is on track to achieve breakeven in Q4 2025, supported by improved vehicle margins and a solid delivery scale, despite increased R&D guidance in the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, vehicle sales increased by 17.5% QoQ to RMB16.9 billion, driven by an improved product mix and a rise in average selling price (ASP) by 7.1% QoQ to RMB164,000 [2][3]. - The vehicle margin expanded significantly from 10.5% in Q1 to 14.3% in Q2, aided by an optimized product portfolio and cost-cutting measures [3]. - Non-GAAP net losses narrowed from RMB426 million in Q1 to RMB385 million in Q2, exceeding expectations [4]. Group 2: Delivery and Production Guidance - The company guided for Q3 2025 sales volume of 113,000 to 118,000 units, aligning with forecasts for average monthly sales of 38,000 to 41,000 units [5]. - The company anticipates a robust year in 2026 with a higher number of new and revamped models, including the introduction of two SUV models in the MONA series [5]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The CEO outlined a roadmap for the growth of the robotics business, including plans for mass production of L4 autonomous driving vehicles by 2026 and humanoid robots in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The company is also exploring external supply opportunities for its self-developed AI Turing chip, which could diversify revenue streams and enhance its technological leadership [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Forecasts - The sales volume forecast for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 460,000 units, while the 2026 delivery forecast has been increased to 630,000 units [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB82.5 billion and RMB118.1 billion, respectively, reflecting the updated sales volume forecasts [8].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 34.08 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year, with a gross margin of 17.3%, surpassing Tesla in the second quarter [2][5] - The delivery volume reached 197,000 units, exceeding the total for the previous year, while net losses narrowed to 1.14 billion yuan, indicating a potential path to profitability [2][6] - The chairman expressed confidence that the fourth quarter will mark a new phase of self-sustaining profitability [2] Revenue and Delivery Performance - The surge in delivery volume was primarily driven by two high-volume models, MONA M03 and P7+, with P7+ accounting for over 20% of sales in the first half of 2025 [3] - The average selling price per vehicle dropped to 153,000 yuan in Q1 but rebounded to 164,000 yuan in Q2 due to the introduction of higher-margin models [3][5] Gross Margin and Cost Management - The overall gross margin of 17.3% represents an increase for eight consecutive quarters, slightly ahead of Tesla [5] - The company invested 4.19 billion yuan in R&D, a 48.6% increase year-on-year, focusing on core technologies such as AI and autonomous driving [5][6] Financial Health and Future Outlook - Cash reserves increased to 47.57 billion yuan, providing strategic flexibility amid industry pressures [6] - The company expects to deliver between 113,000 and 118,000 units in Q3, with a monthly delivery rate exceeding 40,000 units starting in September [6] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Despite the positive financial indicators, challenges remain, including a low sales proportion of SUV models and slow overseas market penetration, with only 18,000 units delivered globally in the first half of 2025 [7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rivals like Xiaomi and Zeekr also aiming for profitability, necessitating a focus on operational efficiency and cost control [7] Strategic Transformation - The company has shifted from a "technology romanticism" approach to a more pragmatic focus on operational capabilities, supply chain management, and sales channels [7] - The first half of 2025 marks a significant transformation for the company, transitioning from a technology-centric narrative to one of efficient manufacturing and cost control [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 74.8% from the current price of HKD 77.05 [3][11]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching RMB 18.27 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. Vehicle sales were 103,181 units, up 9.8% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) was RMB 164,000, reflecting a slight increase of RMB 1,100 [2][8]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 21 billion, with a median quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 11.9%. The expected delivery volume is between 113,000 and 118,000 units, indicating a median quarter-on-quarter growth of about 11.1% [2][8]. - The company maintains its guidance for profitability in Q4 2025, supported by the launch of new models and improvements in vehicle structure [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.68 billion in 2023, RMB 40.87 billion in 2024, RMB 86.17 billion in 2025, RMB 113.34 billion in 2026, and RMB 125.49 billion in 2027, with significant growth rates expected [7][13]. - The company anticipates a net loss of RMB 10.38 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 5.79 billion in 2024, and expects to achieve a profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 [7][13]. - The gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with expectations of 14.3% in 2025 and further increases in subsequent years [15]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the upcoming "Kunpeng Super Electric System" and the first range-extended/pure electric platform, which are expected to enter mass production in Q4 2025, contributing positively to gross margins [2][8]. - The introduction of the new generation P7 and the gradual rollout of self-developed Turing chips are expected to support short-term ASP and gross margin improvements [2][8]. - The company is positioned as a high-certainty investment among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with anticipated sales growth driven by the introduction of new models and advancements in autonomous driving technology [2][8].

2025 年 08 月 20 日 8 月 19 日，小鹏汽车公布 25Q2 财报： 1、营收：25Q2 公司交付汽车 103181 辆，同/环比+241.6%/+9.8%， Q2 营收 182.7 亿元，同/环比+125.3%/+15.6%。其中汽车业务营收 168.8 亿元，同/环比+147.5%/+17.5%；服务业务营收 13.9 亿元，同 /环比+7.8%/-3.5%。我们计算 Q2 单车 ASP 16.4 万元，同/环比- 27.5%/+7%。25 年 H1 公司累计交付 19.7 万辆，同比+279%；营收 340.8 亿元，同比+132.5%，我们计算单车 ASP 15.8 万元，同比- 33.3% 2、费用：Q2 研发/SGNA 费用分别为 22.1/21.7 亿元，研发/SGNA 费 用率分别为 12.1%/11.9%，环比-0.4pct/-0.5pct。 3、利润：Q2 毛利率 17.3%，同/环比+3.3pct/-1.7pct；其中汽车业 务毛利率 14.3%，同/环比+7.8pct/+3.8pct；其他及服务业务毛利率 53.6%，同/环比-0.3pct/-12.9pct。Q2 归母亏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant recovery and growth in its second quarter of 2025, achieving record highs in multiple key performance indicators, including sales, revenue, gross margin, and cash reserves [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [5][6]. - The company delivered 10.32 million vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241.6% [3][5]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating improved cost control and pricing power [5][6]. - Cash reserves increased by over 22.9 billion yuan to 475.7 billion yuan, providing a strong financial buffer for future operations [2][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 197,200 vehicles in the first half of 2025, nearly 3.8 times the volume from the same period last year, achieving 52% of its annual target of 380,000 vehicles [3][5]. - Despite strong sales, the product mix shows an imbalance, with sedans dominating sales while SUVs lag behind [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional appeal, moving beyond just technical specifications to include design and user experience [11][12][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The electric vehicle industry in China is entering a new phase of profitability, with competitors like Li Auto and Zeekr also reporting improved financial results [7][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning itself to achieve profitability by reducing losses significantly, with a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down from 12.8 billion yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [8][10]. - The company aims to establish a strong competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market, emphasizing both technological advancements and emotional engagement with consumers [12][15].