This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +8.06%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this logistics services provider would post earnings of $1.3 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.47, delivering a surprise of +13.08%. Expeditors International (EXPD) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.34 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.24 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. Over the l ...

Core Insights - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, 2025, with a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, averaging a beat of 13.28% [1][2]. Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD's Q2 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 1.64% to $1.24 per share, remaining flat compared to the previous year [4]. - The revenue estimate for Q2 2025 is $2.40 billion, reflecting a 1.62% decline year over year [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Estimated revenues for Airfreight Services and ocean freight are projected at $807.6 million, with overall revenue expected to decrease due to weak air and ocean freight volumes [6][7]. - Customs brokerage and other services are expected to generate $933.9 million, indicating a slight increase of 0.7% from the previous year [7]. Market Conditions - The company's performance is anticipated to be impacted by lower revenues due to weak demand and declining rates in air-freight tonnage and ocean containers [6][8]. - High capital expenditures and uncertain demand stemming from inflation and cautious consumer behavior are significant challenges for the company [8]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a likely earnings beat for EXPD, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [9].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation sector is diverse, including airlines, railroads, package delivery companies, and truckers. The S&P 500 members of this sector are expected to see a 4.7% decline in second-quarter 2025 earnings year over year, with revenues estimated to decrease by 0.5% [1]. Earnings Outlook - Several companies in the sector, such as Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), GXO Logistics (GXO), and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), are anticipated to report better-than-expected earnings despite challenges like weak freight demand, tariff-induced uncertainty, inflation, and supply chain disruptions [2]. - The decline in oil prices, which fell by 6% in the April-June period, is expected to positively impact the bottom-line growth of transportation companies due to reduced fuel expenses [3]. Cost Management and E-commerce - Companies are likely benefiting from cost control measures aimed at improving profitability amid weak freight demand. The ongoing strength of e-commerce is also a positive factor for the sector [4]. Airline and Shipping Company Performance - U.S. airline companies are experiencing stabilization in air travel demand despite economic uncertainties, which is a favorable sign. Shipping companies are showing resilience, particularly those focusing on growth and operational efficiency, despite facing high inflation and tariff-related challenges [5]. Company-Specific Insights - **Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)**: The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is expected to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5. Despite weak volumes in air-freight and ocean containers, cost-cutting efforts are likely to support its bottom line. EXPD has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, averaging a 13.3% beat [9][10]. - **GXO Logistics (GXO)**: GXO has an Earnings ESP of +8.33% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with results scheduled for August 5. Increased e-commerce, automation, and outsourcing are expected to enhance its performance, alongside cost-cutting measures. The company has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 3.9% [11][12]. - **ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM)**: ZIM boasts an Earnings ESP of +20.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with results due on August 20. Its asset-light model allows for rapid capacity adjustments, and its focus on niche markets helps maintain strong pricing power. ZIM has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, averaging a 34.5% beat [13][14].

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing July 29, 2025 Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Industry**: Air Cargo and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Air Market Dynamics - The air market update focuses on the Americas, discussing capacity, demand, and geopolitical influences affecting air cargo [6][7] - Global air capacity grew by 4% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable 44% increase on the Transpacific route [8][9] - Freighter capacity specifically saw a decline of 3% in both directions between Asia and the US, while freighter deployment to Europe increased by 8% [11][12] - The ecommerce sector is experiencing a shift, with a significant reduction in ecommerce volumes flying into the US due to the end of de minimis exemptions [29][30] Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are reshaping air cargo routes, with a notable shift from US-bound cargo to Europe and Southeast Asia [36][38] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff changes are creating uncertainty, impacting supply chains and air freight demand [47][61] - The Chinese economy is facing multiple headwinds, affecting its trade relationships and demand for air cargo services [51][52] Capacity and Demand Trends - The demand for air freight has been healthy, with a 6.6% growth in global air demand in Q1 2025, but is expected to level off to around 3-4% for the rest of the year [21][24] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is a critical indicator, with lower inventory levels indicating higher demand for air freight [23] - Vietnam has emerged as a significant exporter to the US, with a 55% growth in the first five months of 2025 compared to 2024, driven by the tech sector [44][45] Future Outlook - The expectation for new aircraft deliveries has been pushed back to 2027-2028, leading to an aging fleet and increased maintenance needs [19][20] - The air cargo market is expected to continue adjusting to shifting trade patterns, with potential increases in rates for US outbound cargo if demand rises without corresponding capacity [84][85] - The geopolitical landscape is likely to remain volatile, impacting global supply chains and air freight dynamics [75][76] Other Important Insights - The webinar highlighted the importance of adapting to changing trade policies and the need for companies to reassess their supply chain strategies in light of geopolitical tensions [58][60] - The discussion emphasized the role of ecommerce in driving air cargo demand and the challenges faced by companies in navigating regulatory changes [29][30][31] - The potential for increased investment in infrastructure, particularly in Vietnam, to support growing demand was noted as a positive development [45][46]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation-Services industry is currently facing challenges such as dull freight rates, high inflation, and ongoing supply-chain disruptions, along with tariff-related uncertainties and geopolitical issues [1][4][7] - Companies in this industry provide logistics, leasing, and maintenance services, focusing on global logistics management and third-party logistics solutions [3] Current Trends - Supply-chain disruptions and weak freight rates continue to negatively impact the industry, with the Cass Freight Shipments Index declining by 2.4% year over year in June, marking a deterioration for 11 consecutive months [4] - The industry is experiencing significant inflation, particularly in labor and freight costs, prompting companies to implement cost-cutting measures to improve productivity and efficiency [5] - Despite economic recovery, the industry's earnings outlook is negative, with a 31.2% decrease in earnings estimates for 2025 since August 2024 [10] Financial Performance - The Zacks Transportation-Services industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 12.8% over the past year, while the S&P 500 appreciated by 12.2% [12] - The industry is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.32X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 5.26X and the sector's 1.45X [15] Company Highlights - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and has consistently beaten earnings estimates by an average of 13.3% over the last four quarters, despite facing weak volumes [17] - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 14.5% in the past four quarters, with a strong liquidity position [21] - Matson (MATX), also with a Zacks Rank 3, has implemented effective cost-management actions and has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 9.7% [24]

Core Insights - Expeditors International (EXPD) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 15.28% [1][5] - The company reported earnings of $1.30 per share for the most recent quarter, falling short of the expected $1.47, but still achieved a surprise of 13.08% [2] - In the previous quarter, Expeditors reported $1.68 per share against an expectation of $1.43, resulting in a surprise of 17.48% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Expeditors International have been trending upwards, influenced by its history of earnings surprises [5] - The company currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.11%, indicating a bullish outlook from analysts regarding its earnings prospects [8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat in the upcoming report [8] Earnings ESP and Market Performance - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - The next earnings report for Expeditors International is anticipated to be released on August 5, 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presents a bullish outlook on Expeditors (NYSE: EXPD), highlighting its exceptional returns on equity and the stock's persistent undervaluation compared to the market [1]. Financial Performance - Expeditors has demonstrated phenomenal returns on equity, which is a key factor in the positive investment outlook [1]. Market Comparison - The stock is noted to be undervalued relative to the S&P 500, which is trading at a higher PE multiple, suggesting potential for price appreciation [1].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation sector is experiencing multiple challenges, including increased expenses, inflation-driven high interest rates, a decline in freight demand, and supply chain issues [1][3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to oil prices due to U.S. strikes on Iran, are raising concerns about a potential supply shock that could adversely affect the U.S. economy [2] Financial Performance - The transportation sector has seen a decline of 10.1% year over year, contrasting with the S&P 500's growth of 9.3% [3] Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, transportation sector stocks, particularly those with a focus on dividend growth, are recommended for investors [5][6] - Companies with a consistent history of increasing dividends are seen as resilient and capable of providing reliable income and potential long-term capital appreciation [6][7] Dividend Increases - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) announced a 5.5% dividend hike, raising its quarterly dividend from $0.73 to $0.77, with a payout ratio of 24% and a five-year dividend growth rate of 8.6% [11] - FedEx Corporation (FDX) approved a 5.1% dividend increase, raising its quarterly dividend to $1.45 per share, with a payout ratio of 31% and a five-year dividend growth rate of 22% [12] - Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) announced a significant 25% dividend hike, increasing its quarterly dividend to $0.1875 per share, with a payout ratio of 10% [13] Investment Criteria - A screening process for transportation stocks includes a dividend payout ratio of less than 60% and a dividend yield greater than 1%, ensuring sustainability and growth potential [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Expeditors International (EXPD) has seen a 3.3% increase in shares over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Estimates Movement - Estimates for Expeditors International have trended downward over the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of -6.05% [2] VGM Scores - Expeditors International holds a strong Growth Score of A but has a low Momentum Score of F, resulting in an overall VGM Score of C, indicating a middle-tier position in the value investment strategy [3] Outlook - The downward trend in estimates suggests a negative outlook for Expeditors International, currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [4] Industry Performance - Expeditors International is part of the Zacks Transportation - Services industry, where Schneider National (SNDR) has performed better, gaining 6.8% over the past month and reporting revenues of $1.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.3% [5] Schneider National Estimates - For the current quarter, Schneider National is expected to report earnings of $0.21 per share, unchanged from the previous year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate change of -4% over the last 30 days, also holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]