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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-04 16:06
Company Overview - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is a global third-party logistics and freight forwarding company with operations in 340 locations across more than 100 countries [2] - The company employs an asset-light model, purchasing cargo space from carriers and reselling it, which allows for agility and high returns on capital [2] Service Mix and Market Position - EXPD's balanced service mix includes airfreight (34%), ocean (30%), and customs brokerage (36%), making it a critical partner for various industries such as electronics, healthcare, automotive, and retail [3] - The shifting tariff landscape presents both challenges and opportunities, with lower global trade volumes impacting routes while increasing supply chain complexity boosts demand for EXPD's expertise [3] Technology and Culture - The company's proprietary technology ecosystem, including tools like EXP.O NOW, Tradeflow, and Cargo Signal, enhances visibility and compliance, integrating seamlessly with global carriers and customers [3] - EXPD's culture, focused on empowerment and long-term retention, fosters strong customer relationships and high switching costs, differentiating it from competitors [4] Financial Performance - EXPD's asset-light model results in exceptional returns, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeding 40%, negative net debt, and strong cash generation [6] - The company maintains a compelling 7.3% EBITDA/EV yield and consistently returns capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [6] Growth Catalysts - Key growth catalysts for EXPD include increasing supply chain complexity, expanding adoption of its technology platform EXP.O NOW, and ongoing share repurchases [6]
UPS vs. EXPD: Which Dividend-Paying Stock Reigns Supreme Currently?
ZACKS· 2025-12-02 16:21
Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) have both increased dividends this year, demonstrating their commitment to shareholders despite economic uncertainty [1] Dividend Increases - UPS raised its quarterly cash dividend from $1.63 to $1.64 per share, resulting in an annual payout of $6.56, up from $6.52 [2] - EXPD approved a 5.5% increase in its semi-annual dividend, raising it from $0.73 to $0.77 per share, with a payout ratio of 25 and a five-year dividend growth rate of 8% [3] Dividend Sustainability Concerns - UPS's high dividend payout ratio raises concerns about the sustainability of its dividend, as it has a significant share of net income distributed as dividends [4] - Free cash flow for UPS has been declining, with a peak of $9 billion in 2022, and is projected to be $6.3 billion by the end of 2024, only slightly above dividend payments of $5.4 billion [5][6] Price Performance Comparison - EXPD has outperformed UPS with a 31% stock gain over the past six months, while UPS has seen disappointing performance due to soft revenue trends [8][10] - UPS's subdued stock performance is attributed to geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation affecting consumer confidence and growth expectations [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD's 2025 sales indicates a 3.9% year-over-year increase, while UPS's 2025 sales estimate implies a 3.4% year-over-year decrease [13][14] - EXPD's 2025 EPS estimate shows a 3.5% year-over-year increase, contrasting with UPS's expected 10.7% year-over-year decrease [14] Valuation Metrics - EXPD is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.77X with a Value Score of D, while UPS has a forward sales multiple of 0.9X and a Value Score of B [16] - The higher valuation of EXPD suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for its stock compared to UPS [18] Conclusion - EXPD's stronger price performance and upward earnings estimate revisions indicate improving air freight tonnage and effective cost-cutting measures, making it a more attractive investment compared to UPS [19]
Airfreight and AI Infrastructure Boost Expeditors’ (EXPD) Outlook, According to BofA
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-02 13:07
Core Insights - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE:EXPD) is recognized as one of the 15 High Quality Dividend Stocks for Long-Term Investors [1] - Bank of America (BofA) raised its price target for Expeditors to $150 from $142 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing stronger-than-expected demand in Customs and Airfreight [2] - The company reported a significant increase in airfreight tonnage, particularly from North and South Asia, and expanded its presence in strategic sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and aviation [3] - Expeditors repurchased $212 million of common stock and returned $725 million to shareholders year-to-date through share buybacks and dividends [4] Financial Performance - BofA maintained an "above-Street" Q4 EPS estimate at $1.49 and increased its FY26 EPS forecast by 3% to $6.50 [2] - The company has returned a total of $725 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends in the current year [4] Market Position - Expeditors is benefiting from significant investments by technology customers in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which is expected to enhance its market position [3]
6 Reasons Why You Should Add Expeditors Stock to Your Portfolio
ZACKS· 2025-11-26 17:46
Core Viewpoint - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) has shown strong performance over the past year and is expected to maintain this momentum, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1]. Performance Overview - EXPD stock has gained 30.2% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the transportation-services industry, which has seen a decline of 0.1% [2][7]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong investment potential [4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has increased by 12.5% over the past 60 days, while the current year's earnings estimate has been revised upward by 6.36% [5][10]. - EXPD has a positive earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters with an average beat of 13.94% [9]. Growth Factors - E-commerce growth is a significant driver for Expeditors, leading to increased demand for intermodal services, which is expected to continue supporting the company's growth [10]. - The company's strong financial position enables it to pursue growth through acquisitions and reward shareholders with dividends and share buybacks [11].
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Discusses Fundamentals of Export Compliance and Best Practices Transcript
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-19 22:33
Group 1 - The webinar is hosted by Crystal Woods, who is responsible for sales operations in the Northwest region [3] - The session will last approximately 50 minutes, with participants' cameras off and audio muted [2] - Attendees will receive an email with a survey after the webinar to provide feedback and request further information [4] Group 2 - Presentation materials, including an Incoterms chart, will be available for download after the webinar [4] - Questions can be submitted via the Q&A box, and they will be addressed at the end of the session [2][3]
Expeditors International of Washington (NYSE:EXPD) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-11-19 19:02
Summary of Expeditors International of Washington Webinar Company Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (NYSE: EXPD) - **Date**: November 19, 2025 - **Focus**: Basics of compliant exporting and international shipping processes Key Points Industry Insights - **Export Compliance**: Emphasis on understanding the shipment life cycle and compliance in international transactions [4][5][6] - **Players in International Transactions**: Identification of key participants including buyers, sellers, consolidators, forwarders, customs brokers, and trucking companies [5][6][10] - **Shipping Methods**: Discussion on the differences between ocean and air transportation, including cost and speed considerations [19][27] Shipment Life Cycle - **Process Overview**: Detailed explanation of the steps from negotiation to delivery, including the creation of pro forma invoices, booking with carriers, and customs declarations [11][12][17] - **Documentation**: Importance of various documents such as the shipper's letter of instruction, electronic export information (EEI), commercial invoices, and packing lists [41][42][43] Transportation Considerations - **Ocean Freight**: Generally cheaper but slower, with terms like LCL (Less than Container Load) and FCL (Full Container Load) discussed [19][20][23] - **Air Freight**: Faster and often used for high-value or time-sensitive goods, with costs based on weight or volume [27][28] - **Carrier Contracts**: Importance of understanding contracts with carriers and the implications of shipping commitments [21][22] Incoterms - **Definition and Purpose**: Explanation of Incoterms as international commercial terms that clarify transport obligations, costs, and risk transfer [31][32][33] - **Examples**: Discussion of specific Incoterms like XWorks (EXW) and Delivered Duty Paid (DDP), highlighting the responsibilities of sellers and buyers [34][36] Liability and Insurance - **Carrier Liability**: Overview of liability limits for air and ocean freight, including the Warsaw Convention and COGSA defenses [51][52] - **Insurance Importance**: Explanation of insurance as a risk transfer tool, covering property in transit and the rationale for purchasing insurance [55][56] Regulatory Environment - **Tariff Challenges**: Insights into the complexities of importing versus exporting, with a focus on recent changes in regulations [59] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipation of increasing complexities in export regulations and the need for businesses to adapt [60] Additional Information - **Webinars and Training**: Announcement of upcoming webinars on customs and market updates, indicating ongoing educational opportunities for participants [60][61] Important but Overlooked Content - **Customs Brokers**: Role of customs brokers in facilitating the customs declaration process at both origin and destination [10][17] - **Risk Management**: Discussion on the various risks involved in international shipping and the importance of insurance to mitigate these risks [54][55] - **Documentation Compliance**: Clarification that while certain documents are commonly used, not all are legally required for exports [41] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed during the webinar, providing a comprehensive overview of the key aspects of exporting and international shipping as presented by Expeditors International of Washington.
UBS Upgrades Expeditors International to Buy, Lifts Price Target to $166
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-11-17 19:31
Core Viewpoint - UBS upgraded Expeditors International from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target to $166 due to productivity improvements and revenue resilience despite lower ocean freight rates [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - UBS increased its 2027 EPS estimate for Expeditors to $6.90 per share from $6.58, which is above the consensus of $6.39, reflecting initial efficiency benefits [2] - Analysts modeled a 4% rebound in net revenue for Expeditors [2] Group 2: Valuation Insights - At 24x projected earnings, Expeditors' current valuation implies roughly $950 million in EBIT for 2027, compared to UBS's forecast of $1.13 billion, indicating the stock is undervalued [3] - Investor sentiment remains cautious due to weak ocean pricing, with most analysts maintaining Neutral or Sell ratings [3] Group 3: Long-term Potential - UBS highlighted the long-term potential for Expeditors to achieve significant productivity gains through technology integration and process optimization [1]
Block upgraded, Dell downgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-17 14:34
Core Insights - The article compiles significant research calls from Wall Street that are influencing market movements and investor decisions [1] Upgrades Summary - Truist upgraded Block (XYZ) to Hold from Sell with a price target of $68, increased from $67, citing improved risk/reward dynamics following a recent share pullback, despite concerns over credit risk and growth in Cash App Borrow [2] - TD Cowen upgraded Yum! Brands (YUM) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $173, up from $162, anticipating that the potential sale of Pizza Hut will enhance Yum's growth profile [2] - Mizuho upgraded Rubrik (RBRK) to Outperform from Neutral, maintaining a price target of $97, attributing the upgrade to valuation as shares have declined 16% since mid-May despite solid execution [2] - Barclays upgraded Gap (GAP) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $30, raised from $19, praising the company's disciplined leadership strategy under CEO Richard Dickson [2] - UBS upgraded Expeditors (EXPD) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $166, up from $138, believing that growth in the Customs and other segments will counterbalance the pressure from lower ocean rates in 2026 [2]
Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for Expeditors International (EXPD) Stock
ZACKS· 2025-11-12 18:21
Core Viewpoint - Expeditors International (EXPD) shows potential as a strong investment opportunity due to significant upward revisions in earnings estimates, indicating improving earnings outlook and stock performance [1][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current quarter's earnings estimate is projected at $1.44 per share, reflecting a decrease of 14.3% from the previous year, but has seen a 13.25% increase in consensus estimates over the last 30 days with four upward revisions and no negative changes [6]. - For the full year, the earnings estimate stands at $5.85 per share, which is a 2.3% increase from the prior year, supported by six upward revisions and no negative revisions, leading to a 6.61% increase in consensus estimates [7][8]. Analyst Sentiment - There is a strong consensus among analysts regarding the upward revision of earnings estimates for Expeditors International, contributing to a favorable outlook for the company [3][9]. - The Zacks Rank system, which categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Expeditors International as 1, indicating strong buy sentiment based on the positive estimate revisions [9]. Stock Performance - The stock has experienced an 18.8% gain over the past four weeks, driven by the positive earnings growth prospects, suggesting continued upward momentum [10].
Expeditors International of Washington(EXPD) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2025-11-06 17:56
Revenue Performance - Revenues declined 4% due to a significant drop in ocean services, with ocean freight and other services decreasing by 27%[61] - Customs brokerage and other services revenues increased by 13%, while airfreight services revenues grew by 3%[61] - Airfreight services revenues increased by 3% to $1,020,258, while expenses rose by 4% to $766,783 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[72] - Ocean freight services revenues decreased by 27% to $746,120, and expenses decreased by 31% to $542,304 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[77] - Customs brokerage and other services revenues increased by 13% to $1,128,373, with expenses rising by 11% to $630,570 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[84] - Ocean freight consolidation revenues decreased by 35% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to a 33% decrease in average sell rates[78] - North Asia ocean freight revenues decreased by 43% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, driven by lower volumes and average rates[79] Operating Income and Earnings - Operating income decreased by 4% and net earnings to shareholders decreased by 3% compared to Q3 2024[61] - Operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $288,042, a decrease of 4% compared to $301,524 in the same period in 2024[72] - Net earnings attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to $222,256 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $229,574 in the same period in 2024[72] - Earnings per share increased by 1% to $1.64, with cash from operating activities rising to $201 million from $90 million in Q3 2024[61] Costs and Expenses - Salaries and related costs increased by 9% to $490,437 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to a 7% increase in headcount[88] - Other overhead expenses increased by 14% to $176,615 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, driven by technology-related expenses and higher rental costs[92] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q3 2025 was $201 million, up from $90 million in Q3 2024, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, it was $723 million compared to $474 million in the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase of $111 million and $249 million respectively due to changes in working capital[99] - Cash used in investing activities for Q3 2025 was $10 million, compared to $13 million in Q3 2024, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, it was $39 million versus $30 million in the same period in 2024, primarily for capital expenditures[103] - Cash used in financing activities during Q3 2025 was $150 million, compared to $76 million in Q3 2024, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, it was $655 million versus $659 million in the same period in 2024[104] - Total anticipated capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated to be approximately $60 million, including routine capital expenditures, leasehold and building improvements, and investments in technology[103] Tax and Currency Impact - The effective income tax rate decreased to 25.2% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 26.4% in the same period in 2024[94] - An average 10% weakening of the U.S. dollar would have raised operating income by approximately $46 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[113] - Net foreign currency transactional losses for Q3 2025 were approximately $3 million, a decrease from $11 million in Q3 2024, while for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, losses were approximately $20 million compared to gains of less than $1 million in the same period in 2024[114] Trade Environment and Regulatory Changes - The U.S. government has imposed significantly higher tariffs on imports, affecting trade dynamics and creating an unpredictable environment[62] - The termination of the "de minimis" exemption for goods made in China and Hong Kong has added complexity to customs declarations[62] - High demand for customs brokerage services has resulted in increased revenues from customs declaration fees due to a dynamic trade environment[61] - The global economic environment remains uncertain, with inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts impacting trade[65] - Seasonal demand trends indicate that the first quarter is typically the weakest, while the third and fourth quarters are the strongest[66] Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, working capital was $1,627 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $1,190 million, with no long-term obligations or debt other than recorded lease liabilities[99] - At September 30, 2025, borrowings under international unsecured bank lines of credit were $36 million, with contingent liabilities of $80 million from standby letters of credit and guarantees[107] - The company had approximately $132 million of net unsettled intercompany transactions as of September 30, 2025, with the majority resolved within 30 days[114] - The company had fixed lease payment obligations of $724 million as of September 30, 2025, with $143 million payable within 12 months[108]