Market Presence and Growth - Freshpet's household penetration in the United States reached approximately 13.5 million as of December 31, 2024, with a target of 20 million households by 2027[18]. - The company operates in approximately 28,141 stores, with about 22% of these stores featuring second and third Freshpet Fridge placements[56]. - Freshpet's largest customer, Walmart, accounted for 24.5% of net sales in 2024, while the largest distributor, Animal Supply Co., represented 7.9% of net sales[56]. - Freshpet has established a network of approximately 28,141 retail locations to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement[64]. - The grocery, mass, international, and digital channels accounted for 82% of net sales in 2024, up from 84% in 2023[194]. - The company currently operates in approximately 608 stores across four retailers in the United Kingdom as part of its global expansion strategy[136]. Financial Performance - Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached $975.2 million, a 27.2% increase from $766.9 million in 2023[193]. - Gross profit for 2024 was $396.0 million, representing 41% of net sales, compared to 33% in 2023[193]. - The company reported a net income of $46.9 million for 2024, a significant recovery from a net loss of $33.6 million in 2023[193]. - Adjusted Gross Profit was $453.5 million, or 46.5% of net sales, up from 40.0% in 2023[196]. - Income from operations improved by $68.4 million, resulting in a profit of $38.0 million for 2024, compared to a loss of $30.4 million in 2023[199]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $161.8 million, or 16.6% of net sales, compared to $66.6 million or 8.7% in 2023[204]. Manufacturing and Operations - Freshpet's manufacturing facilities include Freshpet Kitchens Bethlehem, which is 240,000 square feet, and Freshpet Kitchens Ennis, which began production in Q4 2022 with plans for further expansion[44][46]. - In 2024, approximately 99.1% of Freshpet's product volume was manufactured using company-owned equipment[47]. - Freshpet's growth strategy relies on timely expansion of Freshpet Kitchens and installation of new Freshpet Fridges to meet consumer demand[86]. - Freshpet Kitchens Ennis facility is expected to grow by approximately 400,000 square feet upon completion of phases 2 and 3[169]. Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Freshpet's marketing strategy focuses on educating consumers about the benefits of fresh refrigerated pet food through various channels, including television and digital media[62]. - The company has expanded its online presence across multiple digital platforms, including Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and YouTube, to target health-conscious pet food consumers[64]. - Freshpet's marketing strategy has successfully attracted new consumers and fostered a highly engaged community of users advocating for the brand[65]. Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - Freshpet's commitment to sustainability includes operating a landfill-free facility and utilizing renewable energy sources for its operations[31]. - The company has donated over 21 million fresh meals to pets through shelters and charitable organizations since its founding[29]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces competition from major pet food manufacturers such as Nestlé Purina, Mars Petcare, and regional niche brands, which impacts market share and pricing strategies[67][91]. - The company faces risks from macroeconomic factors affecting input prices, including tariffs, inflation, and supply chain disruptions[109]. - New U.S. tariffs on imports could lead to increased material costs, negatively impacting cash flow and financial condition[110]. - The company must effectively manage its supply chain to avoid increased operating costs and decreased profit margins due to inventory mismanagement[112]. - Adverse weather conditions and natural disasters can disrupt operations, potentially leading to increased ingredient costs and reduced supply, adversely affecting financial results[113]. - The company faces regulatory compliance costs and risks associated with government scrutiny, which could impact production costs and operational efficiency[127]. Workforce and Employment - As of December 31, 2024, Freshpet employed 1,296 individuals, with a focus on creating a healthy work environment and offering industry-leading compensation[72]. - The company must maintain a qualified workforce to meet operational needs; competition for talent may drive up labor costs, affecting profitability[123]. Financial Strategies and Capital Management - Freshpet's ability to generate sufficient cash flow and secure favorable financing terms is critical for future business development and operational efficiency[88][89]. - The company has federal net operating loss (NOL) carryforwards of approximately $391.5 million and state NOLs of approximately $278.4 million as of December 31, 2024[147]. - Rising interest rates could increase the company's borrowing costs and affect customer purchasing power, potentially impacting earnings and cash flows[149]. - The company issued approximately $402.5 million in convertible notes in March 2023[216]. Compliance and Intellectual Property - The company is committed to maintaining compliance with extensive regulations governing product quality, safety, and marketing in the pet food industry[81][83]. - Freshpet's intellectual property, including trademarks and proprietary technology, plays a significant role in its competitive positioning and brand recognition[79][80]. - Intellectual property protection is crucial; failure to safeguard these rights could lead to significant business impacts and resource diversion[131].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freshpet reported net sales of $975 million for fiscal year 2024, representing a 27% year-over-year increase [16][37] - Adjusted gross margin for fiscal year 2024 was 46.5%, up 650 basis points from the previous year [17][39] - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2024 was $161.8 million, an increase of 143% or $95 million year-over-year [17][41] - The company achieved positive net income for the first time, generating $0.94 per share of EPS [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter net sales were $263 million, up 22% year-over-year, primarily driven by volume growth [14][37] - Adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter was 48.1%, compared to 41.1% in the prior year period [15][38] - Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $52.6 million, up approximately $21 million year-over-year [16][40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freshpet holds a 3.4% market share in the $37 billion U.S. dog food and treat segment [12] - The company has a 96% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment [12] - Household penetration at year-end was 13.5 million households, up 17% year-over-year [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Freshpet aims to reach 20 million households by 2027, with a focus on increasing household penetration through media investment [19] - The company plans to expand capacity to support growth, with expectations of reaching up to $3 billion in sales when fully built out [23] - Freshpet is shifting its approach in the pet specialty channel to improve market share and is assessing new distribution partners [43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential, citing trends in pet humanization and a focus on natural foods as tailwinds [10][11] - The company anticipates net sales of approximately $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion for fiscal year 2025, representing 21% to 24% growth year-over-year [25][44] - Management raised the fiscal year 2027 margin targets, expecting an adjusted gross margin of 48% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% [31] Other Important Information - Freshpet's capital expenditures for 2024 were $187.1 million, with expectations of $250 million for 2025 [42][48] - The company reported $268.6 million in cash on hand at the end of the year, indicating strong liquidity [42] Summary of Q&A Session Questions and Answers - There was no Q&A session held after the call, as the company was presenting at the CAGNY conference later that morning [50]

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet's stock experienced a significant decline despite a generally positive fourth-quarter earnings report, as the results did not meet high analyst expectations [2][5]. Financial Performance - Freshpet reported earnings of $0.36 per share on revenue of $262.71 million, falling short of the consensus expectations of $0.38 per share on revenue of $263.97 million [2]. - The company's sales increased by 22% in Q4, driven by a 17% rise in household penetration and an 18% increase in total distribution points [3]. - Adjusted gross profit margin improved from 41.1% to 48.1%, while adjusted EBITDA margin rose from 14.5% to 20% [4]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates sales growth between 21% and 24% in 2025 and expects to generate positive free cash flow by 2026, which would support growth without further shareholder dilution [4]. - The total outstanding share count has increased at an annualized rate of 6% over the past five years and is projected to rise again in 2028 due to a convertible bond offering, leading to further dilution [5]. Market Sentiment - Despite the positive aspects of Freshpet's business model and growth potential, the stock is perceived as overvalued, trading at approximately 56 times earnings even if net income margin were to double [5][6].

分组1 - Freshpet reported quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share, but showing an increase from $0.31 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -18.18% [1] - The company posted revenues of $262.71 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.29%, but an increase from $215.42 million year-over-year [2] - Freshpet has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a generally positive trend in earnings performance [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 11.8% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 4.5% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.28 for the coming quarter and $1.55 for the current fiscal year [4][7] - The Zacks Rank for Freshpet is currently 2 (Buy), suggesting that the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future [6] 分组3 - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Freshpet belongs, is currently in the bottom 28% of the Zacks industries, which may impact the stock's performance [8] - Another company in the same industry, Nomad Foods, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.40 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +17.7% [9]

Core Insights - Freshpet, Inc. reported a breakout year in fiscal 2024, achieving significant net sales growth and profit improvements, including positive net income for the first time [3][8] - The company anticipates being free cash flow positive by 2026 and has raised long-term profit margin targets due to operational efficiencies [3][17] - Freshpet's strong performance is attributed to volume gains and improved gross margins, driven by lower input costs and better plant expense leverage [4][11] Financial Highlights for Q4 2024 - Net sales increased by 22.0% to $262.7 million compared to $215.4 million in the prior year [4][8] - Gross profit reached $111.6 million, representing a gross margin of 42.5%, up from 34.6% in the prior year [5][8] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $52.6 million, compared to $31.3 million in the prior year [9][8] Financial Highlights for Full Year 2024 - Full year net sales rose by 27.2% to $975.2 million, driven by volume gains of 26.1% [10][8] - Gross profit for the year was $396.0 million, with a gross margin of 40.6%, up from 32.7% in the previous year [11][8] - Net income improved to $46.9 million from a net loss of $33.6 million in the prior year [13][8] SG&A and Adjusted Metrics - Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) for Q4 2024 were $92.2 million, up from $59.7 million in the prior year, with SG&A as a percentage of net sales increasing to 35.1% [6][8] - Adjusted SG&A for Q4 2024 was $73.6 million, or 28.0% of net sales, compared to 26.6% in the prior year [6][8] - Adjusted Gross Profit for the full year was $453.5 million, or 46.5% of net sales, compared to 40.0% in the prior year [11][8] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Cash provided by operating activities for the year was $154.3 million, an increase of $78.3 million compared to the prior year [8][15] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $268.6 million and $395.2 million in outstanding debt [15][8] 2025 and 2027 Outlook - For full year 2025, Freshpet expects net sales in the range of $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion, representing a growth of 21% to 24% from 2024 [17][18] - The company anticipates Adjusted EBITDA of at least $210 million for 2025 [18][8] - Long-term guidance for 2027 remains unchanged with expected net sales of $1.8 billion [17][8]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q4 2024 increased by 22.0% to $262.7 million, up from $215.4 million in the prior year period, primarily driven by volume gains of 20.7%[4] - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was $111.6 million, representing a gross margin of 42.5%, compared to $74.6 million and 34.6% in the prior year period[5] - Full year 2024 net sales reached $975.2 million, a 27.2% increase from $766.9 million in the prior year, driven by volume gains of 26.1%[7] - Full year 2024 net income was $46.9 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $33.6 million in the prior year[8] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $52.6 million, compared to $31.3 million in the prior year period, reflecting strong operational performance[7] - Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased to $975.2 million, a 27.2% increase from $766.9 million in 2023[27] - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $396.0 million, representing a 58.0% increase from $250.9 million in 2023[27] - Adjusted gross profit as a percentage of net sales improved to 46.5% for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to 40.0% in 2023[30] - The company reported a net income of $46.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net loss of $33.6 million in 2023[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $52,633,000, a 67.8% increase from $31,328,000 in Q4 2023[32] - Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales increased to 20.0% in Q4 2024 from 14.5% in Q4 2023[32] Future Projections - For full year 2025, the company expects net sales in the range of $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion, representing a 21% to 24% increase from 2024[16] - The company anticipates Adjusted EBITDA of at least $210 million for full year 2025[16] - The company is updating its long-term guidance for 2027, now expecting an Adjusted Gross Margin of 48%, up from 45% previously[16] Expenses and Liabilities - Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) for Q4 2024 were $92.2 million, an increase from $59.7 million in the prior year period, with SG&A as a percentage of net sales rising to 35.1%[6] - The company’s selling, general, and administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $358.0 million, up from $281.3 million in 2023[27] - SG&A expenses for Q4 2024 were $92,223,000, up from $59,680,000 in Q4 2023, representing a 54.7% increase[31] - Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales improved to 28.0% in Q4 2024 from 26.6% in Q4 2023[31] - Total liabilities rose slightly to $519.5 million in 2024, compared to $511.0 million in 2023[25] Cash and Assets - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $268.6 million and $395.2 million of debt outstanding[9] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $268.6 million as of December 31, 2024, from $296.9 million at the end of 2023[29] - Total assets increased to $1.575 billion as of December 31, 2024, up from $1.464 billion in 2023[25] Investments and Other Costs - The company invested $187.1 million in property, plant, and equipment during the year ended December 31, 2024[29] - Depreciation and amortization expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $70,803,000, up from $57,058,000 in 2023[32] - Non-cash share-based compensation for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $51,807,000, compared to $24,936,000 in 2023[32] - The company incurred $588,000 in losses on the disposal of equipment for the year ended December 31, 2024[31] - The implementation of an ERP system incurred costs of $465,000 in Q4 2023[33] - Advisory fees related to shareholder activism defense engagement amounted to $8,177,000 in 2023[33]

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet (FRPT) shares have recently declined by 16% over the past week, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests potential support and a possible trend reversal in the future [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a minor difference between opening and closing prices, with a long lower wick, suggesting that the stock may have found support after a downtrend [3][4]. - This pattern signals that bears may have lost control, and the emergence of buying interest could lead to a trend reversal [4]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Freshpet, with a 3.4% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [6][7]. - Freshpet holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet (FRPT) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, which is crucial for predicting near-term stock price movements [2][4]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in stock price movements [4]. Freshpet's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Freshpet is expected to earn $0.90 per share, reflecting a 228.6% increase from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet has risen by 3.5%, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Freshpet's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Freshpet (FRPT) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 11.8% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.Guide to Identifying Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is ...

Freshpet (FRPT) ended the recent trading session at $148.51, demonstrating a -0.68% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.36%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.51%.The seller of refrigerated fresh pet food's shares have seen an increase of 2.18% over the last month, surpassing the Consumer Staples sector's loss of 0.5% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.11%.The upcoming earnings release of Freshpet wil ...