Core Viewpoint - Freshpet Inc. is facing significant challenges despite some growth in retail presence and revenue, with a bearish outlook on its stock due to poor fundamentals and unrealistic market expectations [4][6][22]. Company Performance - Freshpet's revenue increased by 18% year-over-year in 1Q25, driven by a 15% volume gain and a 3% favorable price/mix [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose from $31 million in 1Q24 to $36 million in 1Q25, but this figure is considered misleading [5][7]. - The company missed earnings estimates in its 1Q25 report and lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $190-$210 million from a previous estimate of at least $210 million [6]. Financial Health - Freshpet has consistently burned cash, with negative free cash flow (FCF) annually since 2017 and in 34 of the last 36 quarters [12][13]. - Cumulatively, Freshpet has burned through $1.2 billion in FCF since 2019, which is 29% of its enterprise value [13]. - The company's total operating expenses averaged 106% of revenue over the last five years, increasing from 96% in 1Q24 to 104% in 1Q25 [10][11]. Market Position - Freshpet holds just over 1% market share in a pet food industry dominated by larger companies like Nestle and Mars, which together account for 61% of the market [17][18]. - The company faces competition from both large corporations and private label brands, making it difficult to gain market share [16][19]. Profitability Issues - Freshpet's net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) fell to -$10 million in 1Q25 from $9 million in 1Q24, indicating declining profitability [20]. - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) decreased from a peak of 4% in 2024 to 2% in the TTM ending 1Q25 [20]. Valuation Concerns - The current stock price implies that Freshpet must grow profits at accelerated rates and capture significant market share, which is deemed unrealistic [22][23]. - To justify its price of approximately $80 per share, Freshpet would need to generate $11.7 billion in sales by 2034, which is 12 times its TTM sales [23]. - Alternative scenarios suggest a potential downside of 40% to 68% based on more realistic growth expectations [25][26]. Long-term Outlook - Freshpet's economic book value is estimated to be less than $1 per share, indicating that equity investors may not see significant returns [33].

Freshpet (FRPT) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - Freshpet is a leader in fresh pet food in the United States, consistently growing at double digits and tracking to over $1 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue [1] Industry Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing challenges, with economic uncertainty affecting consumer behavior, particularly in decisions related to pet ownership [2][5] - Long-term tailwinds for the industry remain strong, as consumers continue to prioritize better nutrition for themselves and their pets [3][4] Key Financial Metrics - Freshpet's growth rate for the second quarter is approximately 13%, with steady performance observed [7] - The company adjusted its net sales target to a growth range of 15% to 18% and EBITDA guidance from $190 million to $210 million [29] Strategic Initiatives - Freshpet is focusing on deepening consumer insights to target "Most Valuable Pet Parents" (MVPs), a demographic that shows high interest in purchasing Freshpet products [11][15] - The company has identified 2 million MVPs currently, with a potential market of over 7 million [15] - Initiatives include enhancing media targeting, adjusting creative strategies, and improving distribution points to better serve MVPs [15][36] Competitive Advantages - Freshpet differentiates itself through its unique product offerings, manufacturing expertise, and a robust refrigerated supply chain [22][23] - The company is investing in new manufacturing technology to improve efficiency and product variety, with a new production line expected to start in Q4 [26][27] Marketing and Advertising Strategy - Freshpet is shifting its marketing focus towards digital platforms and streaming services to better engage with consumers [69][70] - The company is experiencing a breakdown in the correlation between advertising spend and sales, attributed to economic stress among consumers [60][61] Distribution Strategy - Freshpet is expanding its distribution network, focusing on both retail and e-commerce channels, with a significant increase in e-commerce sales observed [49] - The company aims to leverage its existing distribution points to enhance online shopping experiences [49] Future Outlook - Freshpet remains committed to its long-term financial targets, including a gross margin of 48% and EBITDA of 22% [80] - The company is optimistic about its ability to adapt to market conditions and maintain growth, despite current challenges [81] Conclusion - Freshpet is positioned for significant growth in the pet food industry, with a strong focus on innovation, consumer engagement, and strategic marketing initiatives [18][19][107]

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Core Insights - Freshpet, Inc. reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with net sales exceeding estimates but earnings per share falling short and decreasing year over year. The company has also revised its 2025 guidance downward [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share for the quarter were 9 cents, down from 21 cents in the same quarter last year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents [2]. - Consolidated net sales reached $263.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $259 million, and increased by 17.6% from $223.8 million in the prior year, driven by a 14.9% increase in volume and a 2.7% improvement in price/mix [2]. - Adjusted gross profit rose 18.5% year over year to $120.2 million, with an adjusted gross margin expanding by 40 basis points to 45.7% [3]. - Adjusted SG&A expenses increased 19.5% year over year to $84.7 million, representing 32.2% of net sales, primarily due to higher media spending [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $35.5 million, up 16.2% from $30.6 million in the previous year, attributed to higher adjusted gross profit despite increased SG&A expenses [5]. Financial Health - At the end of the quarter, Freshpet had cash and cash equivalents of $243.7 million and total debt of $395.7 million [7]. - Cash provided by operations was $4.8 million, a decrease of $0.6 million from the same period last year, with capital spending for the quarter at $26.5 million [7]. 2025 Guidance - The company revised its 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales of $1.12-$1.15 billion, indicating a 15-18% increase from 2024, down from the previous estimate of $1.18-$1.21 billion [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA is now projected to be $190-$210 million, reduced from the earlier estimate of $210 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $161.8 million in 2024 [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Freshpet's stock has declined by 46.2%, contrasting with a 1% growth in the industry [10].

Financial Performance - Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased to $263,249,000, up from $223,849,000 in the same period of 2024, representing an increase of approximately 17.7%[14] - Gross profit for the same period was $103,788,000, compared to $88,158,000 in 2024, reflecting a gross margin improvement[14] - The company reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $12,697,000 for Q1 2025, compared to a net income of $18,602,000 in Q1 2024[14] - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net sales reached $263,249,000, an increase of 17.7% compared to $223,849,000 for the same period in 2024[55] - Consolidated net loss for the quarter was $12,697 million, a significant decline from a net income of $18,602 million in the prior year[107] Expenses - The company incurred selling, general, and administrative expenses of $115,285,000 in Q1 2025, compared to $79,695,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant increase of approximately 44.7%[14] - The company reported a depreciation and amortization expense of $21,827,000 for Q1 2025, compared to $15,902,000 in Q1 2024, an increase of approximately 37.2%[19] - Input costs increased to $77,087 million from $69,824 million, reflecting a rise of 10.2% year-over-year[107] - Media costs rose to $39,791 million, up 24.0% from $32,090 million in the previous year[107] - Interest expense for the quarter was $3,459 million, up from $3,060 million, indicating a 13.1% increase[107] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to $405,392,000 as of March 31, 2025, from $436,998,000 at the end of 2024, a decline of approximately 7.2%[11] - Total liabilities decreased slightly to $509,535,000 as of March 31, 2025, from $519,518,000 at the end of 2024[11] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 were $243,732,000, down from $268,633,000 at the end of 2024, a decrease of about 9.3%[19] - As of March 31, 2025, net inventories increased to $82,017 thousand from $80,794 thousand as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.5%[58] - Property, plant, and equipment, net, rose to $1,082,203 thousand as of March 31, 2025, compared to $1,065,869 thousand as of December 31, 2024, indicating an increase of 1.5%[60] Investments and Financing - The company issued $402.5 million of 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes in March 2023, which are accounted for as a single liability measured at amortized cost[33][34] - The carrying value of the convertible notes as of March 31, 2025, is $395,698 thousand, with a fair value of $589,019 thousand[70] - The effective interest rate for the convertible notes is 3.59%, with total interest expense for the three months ended March 31, 2025, amounting to $3,554 thousand[69][71] - The company entered into capped call transactions using $66,211 thousand of the net proceeds from the convertible notes to mitigate potential dilution[72] Market and Product Development - Freshpet continues to focus on expanding its market presence in the U.S., Canada, and other international markets, targeting major retail classes including Grocery and Pet Specialty[21] - The company is actively investing in new product development and technology to enhance its offerings in the natural fresh meals and treats segment for pets[21] - Sales from the grocery, mass, international, and digital channels amounted to $215,156,000, up from $184,429,000, reflecting a growth of 16.6%[55] - The pet specialty and club retailers generated sales of $48,093,000, which is a 22% increase from $39,420,000 in the prior year[55] Legal and Regulatory Matters - The company is involved in legal claims, including a breach of contract claim with Phillips Feed Service, with potential damages exceeding $8,300 thousand[97] Other Financial Information - The company maintains a full valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets as of December 31, 2024, due to the likelihood of non-realization[42][43] - The company has one operating and reportable segment, with financial information reviewed on a consolidated basis for resource allocation and performance evaluation[25] - The company did not identify any recognized or unrecognized subsequent events that require adjustment or disclosure in the financial statements[110] - The percentage of consolidated revenue recognized in Europe for the quarter was less than 1%[182] - The company is exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, particularly in the British pound sterling, Euro, and Canadian Dollar[182] - The company has not entered into any forward exchange contracts as of March 31, 2025[183]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales were $263.2 million, up approximately 18% year over year, primarily driven by volume growth [20][26] - Adjusted gross margin in the first quarter was 45.7%, compared to 45.3% in the prior year period [20][28] - Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $35.5 million, up approximately $5 million or 16% year over year [20][30] - Operating cash flow was $4.8 million in the first quarter, with cash on hand of $243.7 million at the end of the quarter [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volume contributed 14.9% growth, with a positive price mix of 2.7% primarily driven by mix [27] - The company signed a new distribution agreement with Pet Food Experts, which is expected to improve route to market [20] - The company has a 96% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freshpet competes in the $54 billion U.S. pet food category, holding only a 3.5% market share within the $37 billion U.S. dog food and treats segment [21] - Household penetration as of March 30 was 14.1 million households, up 13% year over year [23] - Total buy rate was $110, up 6% year over year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to adapt its strategies to the current economic backdrop, focusing on advertising, retail availability, and product innovation [9][10] - Freshpet is launching a new entry price point bag product under the Freshpet Complete Nutrition label to attract more consumers [9] - The company aims to be free cash flow positive in 2026 and is balancing capacity investments with anticipated demand [11][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a significant shift in the macro environment impacting growth, but Freshpet continues to outperform the category [6][8] - The company does not expect short-term changes in consumer behavior to affect long-term demand for pets or premium pet food [8][16] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth potential despite current economic uncertainties [35] Other Important Information - The company is expanding its small DTC business nationally and making progress in getting Freshpet into more value-oriented stores [10] - Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $225 million this year, down from previous estimates [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about updated guidance range amid economic uncertainty - Management considered various scenarios and believes the current consumer environment will continue for the balance of the year [39][40] Question: Insights on price mix and expectations for the rest of the year - Most of the favorable price mix was driven by product mix, with no intention to change list prices [41][42] Question: Incremental changes in value products and marketing strategies - The company is accelerating plans to improve affordability and change marketing strategies to enhance speed of business [45][46] Question: Inventory health and risk of destocking - Inventory across most channels is in good shape, with no significant destocking expected [85][88] Question: Contingency plans if growth slows - The company has flexibility to adjust capital expenditures and staffing of production lines based on growth trends [100][102]

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet reported quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.13 per share, and showing a decline from $0.21 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of -30.77% [1] Financial Performance - Freshpet's revenues for the quarter ended March 2025 were $263.25 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.66% and up from $223.85 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has exceeded consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Freshpet shares have declined approximately 48.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -3.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.16 on revenues of $280.42 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.30 on revenues of $1.16 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Freshpet has been unfavorable leading up to the earnings release [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Freshpet belongs, is currently ranked in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales were $263.2 million, up approximately 18% year over year, primarily driven by volume growth [19][25] - Adjusted gross margin in the first quarter was 45.7%, compared to 45.3% in the prior year period [19][26] - Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $35.5 million, up approximately $5 million or 16% year over year [19][28] - Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $26.5 million, with cash on hand of $243.7 million at the end of the quarter [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed a new distribution agreement with Pet Food Experts, which is expected to improve growth moving forward [19] - The total e-commerce business was up 43% in the quarter, indicating strong performance in online sales [12] - The company has a 96% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freshpet competes in the $54 billion U.S. pet food category, holding a 3.5% market share within the $37 billion U.S. dog food and treats segment [20] - Household penetration as of March 30 was 14.1 million households, up 13% year over year [22] - The average buy rate was $110, up 6% year over year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to adapt its strategies to target higher-income consumers through increased advertising investment and tailored media strategies [9] - Freshpet will launch a new entry price point bag product under the Freshpet Complete Nutrition label to attract cost-conscious consumers [10] - The company aims to balance capacity and organizational capability investments with anticipated demand to meet long-term margin and cash generation targets [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a significant shift in the macro environment impacting growth, but Freshpet continues to outperform the category across all demographics [5] - The company expects net sales for 2025 to be between $1.12 billion and $1.15 billion, representing approximately 15% to 18% growth year over year [13][29] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth potential despite current economic uncertainties, believing there will be pent-up demand for pets when conditions improve [15][34] Other Important Information - The company is monitoring tariffs closely, with only 5% of U.S. COGS coming from imported raw materials, minimizing the impact on the P&L [32] - Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $225 million for the year, down from previous estimates [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updated guidance range in light of economic conditions - Management considered various scenarios and believes the current consumer environment will continue for the balance of the year, but is prepared to take actions if conditions worsen [36][39] Question: Incremental changes in value products and marketing strategies - The company is accelerating plans to improve affordability and mainstream the brand, focusing on media targeting and creative adjustments [45][46] Question: Market progression and growth challenges - Freshpet is outperforming the category across income groups, but consumer uncertainty is causing hesitance in trading up to premium pet food [56][58] Question: Inventory health and destocking risks - Inventory across most channels is in good shape, with no significant destocking issues expected [84][86] Question: Contingency plans if growth slows - The company has flexibility to adjust capital expenditures and staffing of production lines based on growth performance [94][96]

Financial Performance - Net sales reached $263.2 million, a 17.6% year-over-year increase[14] - Adjusted Gross Margin improved to 45.7%, a 40 bps increase[14] - Adjusted EBITDA was $35.5 million, a $5.0 million increase year-over-year, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 13.5%[14] - Operating cash flow was $4.8 million, a decrease of $0.6 million year-over-year[14] Retail Metrics - Total household penetration increased by 13%[14] - Total buy rate increased by 6%[14] - MVP (Most Valuable Pet Parents) household penetration increased by 21%[14] - Cubic feet increased by 7%[14] - Store count increased by 5%[14] - Total distribution points increased by 15%[14] Strategic Initiatives - The company is addressing the current macroeconomic environment by focusing on value products and marketing channels[16, 17, 20] - The company is expanding capacity on-budget and on-time while improving margins[15] - The company expects to end 2025 with $200 million in cash and be free cash flow positive in 2026[65, 69] Guidance - Updated FY 2025 net sales guidance to $1.12 billion - $1.15 billion, representing a 15-18% year-over-year growth[62] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $190 million - $210 million[62] - Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $225 million[62]

Financial Performance - Net sales increased by 17.6% to $263.2 million for Q1 2025, compared to $223.8 million in the prior year period[3] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $12.7 million, a decrease from net income of $18.6 million in the prior year period[5] - Adjusted Gross Profit was $120.2 million, or 45.7% of net sales, compared to $101.5 million, or 45.3% of net sales, in the prior year[4] - Gross profit rose to $103,788 thousand, representing a 17.7% increase compared to $88,158 thousand in the prior year[26] - The company reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $12,697 thousand for Q1 2025, compared to a net income of $18,602 thousand in Q1 2024[26] - Adjusted gross profit for Q1 2025 was $120,245 thousand, with an adjusted gross profit margin of 45.7%, slightly up from 45.3% in Q1 2024[30] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $35.5 million, up from $30.6 million in the prior year[7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $35,534 thousand, which is 13.5% of net sales, compared to $30,579 thousand or 13.7% of net sales in Q1 2024[33] Expenses and Costs - SG&A expenses rose to $115.3 million, representing 43.8% of net sales, an increase of 820 basis points from 35.6% in the prior year[4] - Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased to $115,285 thousand, up 44.7% from $79,695 thousand in the same quarter last year[31] - The company incurred $10,680 thousand in distributor transition costs due to a change in distribution strategy[32] - The provision for loss on accounts receivable was $11,452 thousand, significantly higher than $4 thousand in the same period last year[29] - The company reported a depreciation and amortization expense of $21,827 thousand, up from $15,902 thousand in Q1 2024[29] Guidance and Future Plans - The company updated its 2025 guidance, expecting net sales between $1.12 billion and $1.15 billion, a growth of 15% to 18% from 2024[13] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is now projected to be between $190 million and $210 million, down from at least $210 million previously[13] - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately $225 million, reduced from previous guidance of $250 million[13] - Freshpet aims to adapt its growth plans to current economic challenges while focusing on operational improvements for long-term success[2] Cash and Debt Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were $243.7 million, with total debt outstanding of $395.7 million[7] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $243,732 thousand, down from $257,894 thousand at the end of Q1 2024[29]