Optimist Fund, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The fund returned +9.1% in the third quarter compared to 7.9% for the benchmark. The firm focuses on acceleration in several cyclical holdings in the portfolio that have been in multi-year downswings, while the world holds attention on the latest developments in AI. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025. In its th ...

Fiverr International (FVRR) ended the recent trading session at $23.20, demonstrating a +1.05% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.23% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.72%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 1.86%. Shares of the online marketplace for freelance services have depreciated by 9.18% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 1.39%, and the S&P 500's gain of 2.45%.The investment communi ...

Core Insights - The Optimist Fund achieved a return of +9.1% in Q3 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark [5] - The fund's year-to-date return stands at 44.5%, compared to the benchmark's 11.1% [5] - The fund anticipates continued growth opportunities over the next three and a half years, similar to recent performance [4] Fund Performance - The fund's performance over various periods shows significant volatility, with a notable recovery from a -51.4% return in 2022 to 82.9% in 2023 [5] - Compound returns as of September 30, 2025, indicate strong performance across 1-year (61.2%), 2-year (65.6%), and 3-year (61.9%) periods [5] Top Contributors - **Wayfair**: Revenue increased by approximately 5% year-over-year to $3.27 billion, marking its fastest growth since Q1 2021. Adjusted EBITDA reached $205 million, indicating a margin above 6% for the first time since Q2 2021 [7][8][9] - **ThredUp**: Revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $77.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by around 100%. Active buyers grew by 17% to 1.47 million [10][11][12] - **Carvana**: Retail units sold increased by 41% year-over-year to 143,280 vehicles, with total revenue rising 42% to $4.84 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $601 million, reflecting a 12.4% margin [13][14][15] Top Detractors - **Monday.com**: Despite a 27% increase in revenue, the company reduced its second-half 2025 revenue guidance due to weaker performance marketing trends, causing investor concerns [20][21][22] - **Fiverr**: Results were below expectations, leading to a reduction in position size despite maintaining an attractive risk/reward profile [25][26] Portfolio Composition - The top 10 holdings comprise approximately 85% of the portfolio, including ThredUp, Monday.com, Carvana, Uber, Wayfair, DoorDash, First Advantage, Fiverr, Latham Group, and Medpace [27] Notable Changes - The fund exited positions in HelloFresh and Revolve due to management changes and reduced confidence in growth prospects, reallocating capital to more promising opportunities [29][30] Company Insights - **Medpace**: A leading contract research organization (CRO) focused on small and mid-sized biotech companies, showing strong revenue growth of 14.2% year-over-year to $603.3 million [31][18][35] - The company has a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a history of share repurchases during market downturns, enhancing long-term growth potential [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Fiverr International Ltd. is set to release its third quarter financial results for the period ending September 30, 2025, on November 5, 2025, before market opening, followed by a conference call to discuss the results [1][4] Company Overview - Fiverr's mission is to transform the way the world creates and works together, connecting top talent and technology with businesses globally [2] - The platform offers services from expert freelancers across over 750 skilled categories, including software and AI development, digital marketing, finance, and more [3] Conference Call Details - The conference call will take place on November 5, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET, with registration required for participation [4] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available on the investor relations section of Fiverr's website [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights three companies that are expected to grow significantly in the long term despite being undervalued in the current market environment Group 1: Unity Software - Unity Software is experiencing a return to strong growth after a period of stagnation, with shares still 82% below their previous peak [2][3] - The company is a leading provider of software for video game developers, particularly in mobile gaming, and its AI-powered advertising platform, Unity Vector, is driving growth in its ad network [3][4] - Unity reported a slight year-over-year decline in total revenue in Q2 but is expected to return to growth by 2026, with free cash flow projected to grow at an annualized rate of 25% [3][6] - The company has seen double-digit growth in subscriptions for its game development software and has expanded into non-gaming markets, including partnerships with automakers like BMW [5] Group 2: Roku - Roku's shares fell sharply in 2021 due to a slowdown in the advertising market but have since rebounded, although they still trade 80% below their all-time high [7][8] - The company has a strong competitive position in the streaming market, with nearly 90 million user accounts as of the end of 2024, representing a 12% increase from Q4 2023 [9] - Roku's platform revenue grew 18% year-over-year in Q2 2025, driven by a large and growing audience, and the connected-TV advertising market is expected to grow from $29 billion in 2024 to $38 billion in 2027 [10] Group 3: Fiverr International - Fiverr International's shares are trading 93% below their previous high, yet the company continues to increase free cash flow and focus on AI initiatives [12] - Despite economic volatility affecting the gig economy, Fiverr reported a 15% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, with strong demand for AI-related services, particularly a 37% increase in demand for AI consultants [13][14] - The recent launch of its AI-powered Shopify Store Builder contributed to an 84% year-over-year increase in services revenue, and the stock is trading at a low price-to-free cash flow multiple of 9, indicating a potential bargain for investors [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Fiverr International's stock performance has been underwhelming recently, with a notable decline compared to broader market indices, yet upcoming earnings projections indicate potential growth in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Fiverr's stock closed at $22.10, reflecting a decrease of 2.69% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.63% [1]. - Over the past month, Fiverr's shares have decreased by 6.74%, which is worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 4.1% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.92% [2]. Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for Fiverr is projected at $0.7, representing a 9.38% increase year-over-year, while revenue is expected to reach $108.04 million, indicating an 8.44% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3]. - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $2.8 per share and revenue at $432.78 million, reflecting increases of 17.65% and 10.55% respectively from the prior year [4]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst estimates for Fiverr suggest a positive outlook, with upward adjustments indicating optimism about the company's business and profitability [4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Fiverr as 1 (Strong Buy), with a 5.69% upward shift in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6]. Valuation Metrics - Fiverr's Forward P/E ratio stands at 8.13, which is significantly lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 21.91, suggesting a valuation discount [7]. - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which Fiverr belongs, ranks in the top 32% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7].

Core Insights - Fiverr is celebrating International Freelancer Day on October 16, 2025, by launching initiatives to support freelancers and challenge misconceptions about the gig economy [1][4] Group 1: Survey Insights - A survey of 3,500 freelancers indicates that 50% prioritize flexible work locations and 48% value their own hours, while 81% work from dedicated home offices [2] - 76% of freelancers use AI tools, with 64% reporting increased productivity, and 40% self-teaching AI skills without formal training [2] - Only 15% of Gen Z freelancers view competition with AI as a major challenge, compared to 37% of older freelancers [2] Group 2: Freelancing Trends - 32% of freelancers identify as "anywhere workers," planning to work from multiple locations, with 23% intending to do so in the next year [3] - Unique work locations reported by freelancers include a treehouse, tuk-tuk, lavender field, and inside a pyramid in Egypt [3] Group 3: New Initiatives - Fiverr is launching four initiatives for International Freelancer Day, including a Community Rewards Store and Freelancer Tuesdays to enhance freelancer connections [4][5] - The Community Rewards Store allows freelancers to earn points for community engagement, redeemable for rewards like meetings with the CEO, airline vouchers, and Fiverr credits [9] - Freelancer Tuesdays will provide freelancers with professional support and networking opportunities at Fiverr's New York office [9]

Core Insights - Gen Z is increasingly favoring "income stacking" over traditional career paths due to economic uncertainty, with 67% considering multiple income streams essential for financial security [2][3] Group 1: Economic Context - Many Gen Zers believe a single income from a full-time job is insufficient, with less than 10% feeling it is adequate in today's economy [2] - The concept of "single-paycheck panic" is prevalent among Gen Z, leading them to diversify income sources to mitigate risks associated with relying on one job [3] Group 2: Employment Trends - Approximately 46% of Gen Z respondents engage in freelance work alongside their full-time jobs, while only 26% have adopted freelancing as their primary career [3] - Over one-third of Gen Z individuals would consider freelancing full-time, contingent on matching or exceeding their current full-time income [3] Group 3: Personal Experiences - Carissa Ferguson, a Gen Z individual, exemplifies the income stacking trend with five income streams just one year after college, highlighting the flexibility and freedom it provides compared to traditional employment [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Fiverr International (FVRR) has experienced a bearish trend recently, losing 5.8% over the past week, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be increasing [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottoming out, with reduced selling pressure, suggesting that bulls may be gaining control [2][5]. - A hammer pattern typically forms when a stock opens lower, makes a new low, but then closes near its opening price, indicating a potential reversal in a downtrend [4][5]. - The effectiveness of the hammer pattern is enhanced when used alongside other bullish indicators, as its strength is dependent on its placement on the chart [6]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a notable upward trend in earnings estimate revisions for FVRR, which is a bullish indicator, as these revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [7]. - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 5.7%, indicating that analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [8]. - FVRR holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9][10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2021, revenue reached $298 million, representing a 57% year-over-year growth and a 178% growth on a two-year basis [4] - The company achieved $1 billion in annual GMV for the first time and generated an adjusted EBITDA of $23 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.7%, compared to 4.8% a year ago and negative 16.8% two years ago [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2021, revenue was $79.8 million, up 43% year-over-year, driven by a 23% growth in active buyers and an 80% increase in spending buyers [16] - The company saw a 210 basis points expansion in take rate during the quarter [16] - Mature cohorts experienced over 110% year-over-year retention for the second consecutive year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-English speaking countries contributed to 32% of total revenue [7] - E-commerce related categories showed strong performance as businesses invested in content and marketing during the holiday season [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become an all-in-one talent cloud solution for businesses of all sizes, focusing on building a robust seller ecosystem and integrating acquired companies into its platform [6][7] - The management emphasized the importance of transitioning from a static workforce to a dynamic talent cloud solution, similar to the shift from on-premise IT to cloud computing [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the way people work is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with more individuals leaving traditional jobs to become freelancers [8][10] - The company expects to remain disciplined with its financial strategy while continuing to invest in growth initiatives [15][22] Other Important Information - The company plans to accelerate investments in brand marketing and performance marketing, with a focus on driving higher quality buyers and improving marketing efficiency [19][70] - The gross margin is expected to see a shortfall of approximately 1% throughout the year due to hiring catch-up [73] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of the take rate upside and competition - The increase in take rate is attributed to added value services and products, including promoted gigs and subscription services [26][28] - The management has not observed any significant impact from competitors like Upwork and LinkedIn on their business [32] Question: Visibility for 2022 trends and adoption curve of freelancing - The company guides based on known factors and has seen a stabilized business reminiscent of pre-pandemic trends [38] - The overall freelancing market is expected to grow, with a significant portion of the American workforce projected to be freelancers by 2030 [42] Question: New product introductions and acquisitions - Recent acquisitions are seen as strategic building blocks for the talent cloud, with a focus on integrating offline freelancer relationships [50][51] Question: Offline opportunity and marketplace curation - The management highlighted the need for standardization in how freelancers are integrated into organizations, addressing both offline and online opportunities [55] - Quality remains a key focus, with efforts to better match buyers and sellers through improved data and segmentation [57] Question: Brand marketing investments and NFT demand - Brand marketing is viewed as a long-term investment, with significant growth in unaided brand awareness [70] - The supply on the platform is expected to meet the rising demand for services related to NFTs and other emerging technologies [72] Question: Gross margin and hiring impacts - The fourth quarter gross margin is expected to reflect a shortfall due to hiring, with a projected 1% decrease throughout the year [73] Question: Tailwinds from labor shortages - The company is experiencing tailwinds from the labor shortage, with increased engagement from larger businesses seeking freelancers [82]