Core Insights - The article introduces Alps Capital as a new contributing analyst for Seeking Alpha, encouraging others to share investment ideas for publication and potential earnings [1] Group 1 - The financial analyst has a Master's degree in Corporate and Market Finance and focuses on identifying resilient and undervalued companies across various sectors, with a particular interest in the Energy sector [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of disciplined analysis, downside protection, and long-term thinking in a volatile market [2]

Core Insights - Forward Air (FWRD) reported revenue of $613.28 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The company's EPS was -$1.59, a decline from -$0.64 in the same quarter last year, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1] - Revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $618 million by 0.76%, while the EPS was below the consensus estimate of -$0.47 by 238.30% [1] Financial Performance - Operating Revenues from Expedited Freight were reported at $249.38 million, which is 8.8% lower than the average estimate of $258.90 million [4] - Operating Revenues from Eliminations and other operations were -$22.20 million, slightly worse than the average estimate of -$20 million [4] - Operating Revenues from Omni Logistics reached $323.47 million, exceeding the estimated $314.20 million [4] - Operating Revenues from Intermodal were $62.49 million, surpassing the average estimate of $59.40 million, with a year-over-year increase of 11% [4] Stock Performance - Forward Air's shares have increased by 59.5% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 10.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - Forward Air reported a quarterly loss of $1.59 per share, significantly worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.47, and compared to a loss of $0.64 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -238.30% [1] - The company posted revenues of $613.28 million for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.76%, and this represents an increase from year-ago revenues of $541.81 million [2] - Forward Air shares have declined approximately 48.1% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -4.7% [3] Group 2 - The earnings outlook for Forward Air is currently unfavorable, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting that the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.05 on revenues of $650.93 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.35 on revenues of $2.63 billion [7] - The Transportation - Truck industry, to which Forward Air belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 1% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a challenging environment for the company [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated revenue of $613 million for the first quarter of 2025, representing a 13.2% increase or $71 million compared to the same quarter last year, primarily driven by the Omni acquisition [18] - Consolidated EBITDA was $69 million, consistent with the previous quarter and up from $63 million a year ago, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 11.2% [10][20] - Positive cash flow from operations was reported at $28 million, a significant improvement from cash used in operations of $52 million a year ago [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the expedited freight segment decreased by $24 million or 8.8% year-over-year to $249 million, driven by a 10.9% decrease in tonnage per day [19] - Omni Logistics revenue increased by $99 million to $323 million compared to the previous year, while intermodal revenue increased by $6 million or 11% to $62 million [20] - The expedited freight segment achieved a reported EBITDA margin of 10.4%, up almost 400 basis points from the previous quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 88% of the company's revenue is attributable to customers billed in the United States, with 7% from the Asia Pacific region and 4% from other regions [15] - The company estimates that 70% of its business comes from ground transportation in North America, with air and ocean forwarding contributing about 12% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its revenue from $2.5 billion to $5 billion over the next five years, contingent on a return to a normal freight environment [9] - Management is focused on integrating legacy companies and streamlining operations to enhance growth potential [8] - The company is committed to increasing transparency and improving service quality to drive customer retention and profitability [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the global logistics market but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate these uncertainties and capitalize on growth opportunities [9][28] - The leadership team emphasized the importance of focusing on employees and customers to drive shareholder value [29] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing a strategic alternatives review process, with discussions ongoing with potentially interested parties [26] - Management highlighted the importance of cash conversion and liquidity, ending the quarter with $393 million in total liquidity [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the exposure of expedited freight to international markets? - Management indicated that less than 10% of expedited freight revenue is tied to inbound China or Asian volumes, with a buffer in place for estimates [33][34] Question: Is there a pull forward in the numbers this quarter? - Management noted a slight uptick towards the end of March but could not definitively attribute it to pull forward versus seasonal projects [36] Question: What are the expectations for pricing performance in expedited freight? - Management expects a step-up in pricing performance in Q2 as corrective actions take full effect [41] Question: How does the company view competition in premium LTL services? - Management believes that while there are competitors, the company has a superior network and service quality, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing [95][96] Question: What is the impact of lower West Coast imports on the intermodal business? - Management stated that the intermodal team is focused on the East Coast and Gulf, and they expect to benefit from increased East Coast imports [81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated revenue of $613 million for Q1 2025, a 13.2% increase or $71 million compared to the same quarter last year, primarily driven by the Omni acquisition [16][18] - Consolidated EBITDA was $69 million, representing an 11.2% margin, compared to $63 million or 10.2% margin a year ago [18][20] - Positive cash flow from operations was $28 million, a $79 million improvement from the previous year [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the expedited freight segment decreased by $24 million or 8.8% to $249 million year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% decrease in tonnage per day [17] - Omni Logistics revenue increased by $99 million to $323 million compared to the previous year, while intermodal revenue increased by $6 million or 11% to $62 million [18] - The expedited freight segment achieved a 10.4% EBITDA margin, up almost 400 basis points from the previous quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 88% of the company's revenue is attributable to customers billed in the United States, with 7% from Asia Pacific and 4% from other regions [13] - The company noted that the quality of service provided will drive customer retention and growth, which is crucial in the current competitive landscape [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its revenue from $2.5 billion to $5 billion over the next five years, contingent on returning to a normal freight environment [8] - A focus on integrating legacy companies and streamlining operations is underway to enhance growth potential [7][8] - The company is committed to improving transparency in its financial reporting and operations [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the current macroeconomic environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategy and enhance shareholder value [25][26] - The leadership team is focused on long-term profitability and is making necessary investments to improve operational characteristics [56] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing a strategic alternatives review process, with discussions ongoing with potentially interested parties [23] - Management emphasized the importance of customer relationships and cross-selling services to drive organic growth [58] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does expedited freight have more exposure to international markets? - Management indicated that less than 10% of expedited freight revenue is tied to inbound China or Asian volumes, with a buffer in place for estimates [31][32] Question: Is there a pull forward in numbers this quarter? - Management noted a significant uptick in the last two weeks of March but could not definitively attribute it to pull forward [34] Question: What are the expectations for pricing performance in expedited freight? - Management expects a step-up in pricing performance in Q2 as corrective actions take full effect [39] Question: How is the competition in premium LTL services? - Management stated that while there are competitors, the company focuses on quality service and competitive pricing rather than engaging in aggressive price competition [92] Question: What is the impact of lower West Coast imports on intermodal business? - Management confirmed that the intermodal team is well-positioned to benefit from increased East Coast imports and is not heavily reliant on West Coast traffic [80]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the Quarterly Period Ended March 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission File No. 000-22490 FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) | Tennessee | | 62-1120025 | | --- | --- | --- | | (State or other jurisdiction of incorpor ...

Forward Air Corporation Earnings Presentation 1Q25 May 7, 2025 Earnings Presentation Statements & Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as: "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "goal," "seek," "believe," "project," "estimate," "expect," "strategy," "future," "likely," "may," "should," "wil ...

Financial Results - The company reported preliminary financial results for Q1 2025, with specific figures to be detailed in the press release[4] - The press release is available as Exhibit 99.1, which includes updates on financial performance[7] - There are no specific performance guidance or future outlook details provided in the current report[4] Regulatory Compliance - The report is filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements[5] - The company is not classified as an emerging growth company, indicating it has opted for standard compliance timelines[3] - The company has a Commission File Number of 000-22490, indicating its registration with the SEC[2] Company Information - The common stock of Forward Air Corporation is traded under the symbol FWRD on NASDAQ[2] - The address of the company's principal executive offices is 1915 Snapps Ferry Road Building N, Greeneville, TN 37745[2] - The CEO of Forward Air Corporation is Shawn Stewart, who signed the report[11] Business Developments - The report does not include any new product or technology developments, market expansions, or acquisitions[4]

Core Insights - Forward Air's share price surged nearly 32% following positive preliminary financial results, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 9.5% increase [1] Financial Performance - The company reported preliminary first-quarter non-GAAP EBITDA is expected to be between $54 million and $59 million [2] - Liquidity, defined as cash, cash equivalents, and availability of funds from a senior secured term loan, is projected to rise to $392 million by the end of the quarter, reflecting a $10 million improvement from the previous quarter [3] Tariff Impact - Management indicated that 10% to 15% of its 2024 revenue is anticipated to come from countries affected by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which is considered a mild impact compared to other industries [4] Future Outlook - The company will release its audited first-quarter results on May 7, and potential tariff "pauses" or beneficial trade agreements could further boost Forward's stock performance [5]

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariffs - A comprehensive overhaul of U.S. trade policy, including broad tariffs, is causing significant market volatility, particularly affecting transportation companies like Union Pacific, Forward Air, and Zim Integrated Shipping Services, which have seen declines of 4.13%, 21.55%, and 14.20% respectively [1] - The extent of the tariffs was unexpected, and they are designed to shift manufacturing back to the U.S., which could fundamentally impact global shippers like Zim and Forward [2] Group 2: Impact on Union Pacific - Union Pacific's railway, which connects West Coast ports to the U.S. heartland, may lose value due to significant changes in import values resulting from the tariffs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and consumer demand may lead to reduced inventories, impacting the volume of goods transported, with Union Pacific already forecasting flat growth in 2025, which is now at risk [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - For investors with a long-term perspective, there is optimism as tariffs may alter trade patterns but do not eliminate the need for transportation of goods, suggesting that companies like Union Pacific possess irreplaceable assets that will be utilized over time [4]