UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 10-K (Mark One) ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission file number: 1-14260 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to The GEO Group, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) | Florida | 65-0043078 | | --- | --- | | State or oth ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported net income attributable to GEO of approximately $15.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share on revenues of approximately $608 million, compared to $25 million or $0.17 per diluted share in Q4 2023 on the same revenue [29][30] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was approximately $18 million or $0.13 per diluted share, down from $37 million or $0.29 per diluted share in Q4 2023 [31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was approximately $108 million, compared to approximately $129 million for the prior year's fourth quarter [31] - For the full year 2024, net income attributable to GEO was approximately $32 million on annual revenues of approximately $2.42 billion, with adjusted net income of approximately $101 million or $0.75 per diluted share [34][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from owned and leased secure service facilities increased by approximately 3% year-over-year, while revenue from electronic monitoring and supervision services declined by approximately 10% compared to the prior year's fourth quarter [31][32] - The average daily census levels at residential reentry centers remained stable at approximately 5,000 individuals during Q4 2024 [56] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current population in ICE detention facilities is approximately 15,000, which represents an increase of 1,000 beds utilized since the last earnings call [12] - The company expects to provide approximately 17,000 incremental detention beds to ICE and the federal government, increasing total available capacity from approximately 15,000 to 32,000 beds [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest $70 million to enhance capabilities for expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to ICE and the federal government [11][69] - The company aims to reactivate idle facilities and is in discussions with ICE and the Marshals Service regarding their interest in these facilities [15][26] - The company is positioned to scale up its secure residential care housing and electronic monitoring services significantly in response to new administration policies [70][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the unprecedented level of operational activity expected in 2025, driven by new contract opportunities and increased enforcement by ICE [9][24] - The company anticipates that the ramp-up in enforcement and detention activities will depend on additional funding appropriated by Congress [24][26] - Management highlighted the importance of the Laken Riley Act in potentially increasing the demand for monitoring services [16][77] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with approximately $1.7 billion in total net debt and expects to reduce net debt by an additional $150 million to $175 million in 2025 [27][41] - The company has a significant runway to grow its business while focusing on debt reduction and exploring options for returning capital to shareholders in the future [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of The Laken Riley Act on monitoring - Management indicated that individuals may need to be placed in detention or continue in the ISEP monitoring program indefinitely if there is no capacity [77] Question: Prioritization of monitoring devices - Management noted a preference for ankle monitors for high-security monitoring, with no identified supply chain issues [78][81] Question: Revenue guidance and monitoring segment contribution - Approximately $250 million of the projected $800 million to $1 billion in incremental revenue is expected from monitoring, based on a participant count of approximately 450,000 [83][87] Question: Expectations for ICE's use of the Atlanta facility - Management mentioned that a court order allows for partial utilization of the facility, with a hearing expected to authorize full utilization [111] Question: Startup costs and operational expenses for new facilities - Management discussed the significant costs associated with hiring and training staff for facility activation, with expectations for a fast ramp-up in procurement activity [113][117]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported net income attributable to GEO of approximately $15.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share on revenues of approximately $608 million, compared to $25 million or $0.17 per diluted share in Q4 2023 on the same revenue [29][30] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was approximately $18 million or $0.13 per diluted share, down from $37 million or $0.29 per diluted share in Q4 2023 [31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was approximately $108 million, compared to approximately $129 million for the prior year's fourth quarter [31] - For the full year 2024, net income attributable to GEO was approximately $32 million on annual revenues of approximately $2.42 billion [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from owned and leased secure service facilities increased by approximately 3% year-over-year, while revenue from electronic monitoring and supervision services declined by approximately 10% compared to the prior year's fourth quarter [31] - The average daily census levels at residential reentry centers remained stable at approximately 5,000 individuals during Q4 2024 [56] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current population in ICE detention facilities is approximately 15,000, which represents an increase of 1,000 beds utilized since the last earnings call [12] - The company expects to provide approximately 17,000 incremental detention beds to ICE and the federal government, increasing total available capacity from approximately 15,000 to 32,000 beds [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest $70 million to enhance capabilities for expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to ICE and the federal government [11][69] - The company aims to reactivate idle facilities and is in discussions with ICE and the Marshals Service regarding their interest in these facilities [15][16] - The company is focused on increasing its electronic monitoring capabilities to meet the requirements of the Federal Immigration Law and The Laken Riley Act [21][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the unprecedented level of operational activity expected in 2025, driven by new contract opportunities and increased demand for services [9][10] - The company anticipates that the ramp-up in interior enforcement by ICE will continue throughout the year, contingent upon funding availability [24] - Management highlighted the potential for significant upside in revenues, estimating that opportunities could represent as much as $800 million to $1 billion in incremental annualized revenues [23][37] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with approximately $1.7 billion in total net debt and expects to reduce net debt by an additional $150 million to $175 million in 2025 [27][41] - The company has a 40-year record of providing special purpose facilities that meet the operational needs set by ICE, emphasizing cost savings compared to publicly operated facilities [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does The Laken Riley Act include in terms of monitoring? - Management indicated that individuals need to be placed in detention, and if there isn't capacity, they should continue in the ISEP monitoring program indefinitely [77] Question: Are ankle or wrist monitors prioritized over the SmartLink app? - Management noted a preference for ankle monitors initially, as they represent a higher security level of monitoring [79] Question: What percentage of the $800 million to $1 billion in incremental revenue is expected from the monitoring segment? - Approximately $250 million is expected from the monitoring segment based on a participant count of around 450,000 [83] Question: What are the expectations for ICE's use of the Atlanta facility now that the court order limiting utilization was lifted? - The facility may utilize approximately 460 to 470 beds, with a hearing next month expected to authorize complete utilization [111] Question: What level of startup costs will be associated with the Delaney Hall facility? - Startup costs will involve hiring and training approximately 3,000 employees, which will be several million dollars [113]

Core Viewpoint - Geo Group reported quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, representing a year-over-year decline from $0.29 per share [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $607.72 million for the quarter ended December 2024, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.31% and down from $608.28 million a year ago [2] - Over the last four quarters, Geo Group has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates and has topped consensus revenue estimates only twice [2] Stock Performance - Geo Group shares have declined approximately 7.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.23 on revenues of $617.91 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.27 on revenues of $2.67 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Geo Group is mixed, which could change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Mortgage & Related Services industry, to which Geo Group belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 44% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8]

4955 Technology Way ∎ Boca Raton, Florida 33431 ∎ www.geogroup.com CR-25-03 Exhibit 99.1 N E W S R E LE A S E THE GEO GROUP REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTS Boca Raton, Fla. – February 27, 2025 — The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) ("GEO"), a leading provider of contracted support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry centers, as well as enhanced in-custody rehabilitation, post-release support, and electronic monitoring programs, reported today its financial results fo ...

All through the campaign period, gearing to the elections, there was speculation of dozens of deregulation policies that would come into effect if President Trump returned to the White House. True to it, less than a month into his 2Michael A. Gayed is portfolio manager, and author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He has a BS with a double major in Finance & Management from NYU Stern School of Business, and is a CFA Charterholder. Michael runs the investing group The L ...

Industry Overview - The private prison industry has been a leading sector in the stock market since November 2024, with Geo Group (NYSE: GEO) being a decisive winner of the rally [1] - Geo Group's stock has soared approximately 142% since the election and is up 22.43% year-to-date (YTD) as of January 23 [1] Geo Group's Performance and Drivers - Geo Group's stock price has surged above its 2017 highs, reaching $34.26 at press time, driven by the new administration's immigration policy [2] - The company is expected to benefit directly from the new policy, as it operates immigration detention centers within its portfolio [4] - The 13th Amendment provisions allowing for indentured servitude as punishment remain in place in many U S states, which could lead to an upsurge in cheap labor for private prison companies [5] - Approximately 30% of California's firefighters are inmates, highlighting the recent usage of such labor in the state [6] Analyst Expectations and Ratings - Geo Group's shares are rated as a 'moderate buy' on average on TipRanks, with an average price target of $41.50, forecasting a 20.82% rise in the coming 52 weeks [8] - Only four analyst firms revised their predictions since early October, with Wedbush being the only one to do so in 2025 [9]

Group 1 - The GEO Group has been previously recommended as a Hold, indicating a cautious stance on the stock [1] - There are signs of revenue growth deterioration for The GEO Group, suggesting potential challenges ahead [1] - The company is focusing on specific strategies, although details are not provided in the text [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of fundamental bottom-up analysis and quantitative modeling in investment decisions [1] - The objective is to identify asymmetric opportunities in the market, capitalizing on perception gaps [1]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2024 were $603.1 million, slightly up from $602.8 million in Q3 2023[3] - Net income attributable to GEO for Q3 2024 was $26.3 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to $24.5 million, or $0.16 per diluted share in Q3 2023[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was $118.6 million, compared to $118.7 million in Q3 2023[3] - Total revenues for the first nine months of 2024 were $1.82 billion, compared to $1.80 billion for the same period in 2023[8] - Net income attributable to GEO for the first nine months of 2024 was $16.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, down from $82.1 million, or $0.55 per diluted share in the same period of 2023[6] - Q3 2024 revenues reached $603,125, a slight increase from $602,785 in Q3 2023, with year-to-date revenues of $1,815,982 compared to $1,804,885 in the same period last year[27] - Operating income for Q3 2024 was $82,371, down from $83,589 in Q3 2023, with year-to-date operating income of $242,078 compared to $268,629 in the prior year[27] - Q3 2024 net income attributable to GEO was $26,320, an increase of 7.3% from $24,519 in Q3 2023[28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was $118,636, slightly down from $118,670 in Q3 2023, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%[28] Future Projections - The company expects Q4 2024 net income attributable to GEO to be in the range of $0.19 to $0.22 per diluted share, with revenues of $600 million to $610 million[9] - Full year 2024 expected revenues are approximately $2.42 billion, with adjusted net income projected between $0.80 to $0.84 per diluted share[10] - For FY 2024, net income attributable to GEO is projected to be between $40,000 and $45,000[29] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY 2024 is set between $470,000 and $480,000[29] - Total debt, net, is expected to range from $1,675,000 to $1,650,000[29] - The company reported a net interest expense of $182,000 for FY 2024, with an increase to $184,000 projected[29] - Capital expenditures for FY 2024 are estimated to be between $80,000 and $85,000, with growth-related CAPEX at $12,000 to $13,000[29] - Adjusted net income per diluted share for FY 2024 is forecasted to be between $0.80 and $0.84[29] - The weighted average common shares outstanding on a diluted basis is expected to remain at 134,000[29] Debt and Assets - At the end of Q3 2024, GEO's net debt totaled approximately $1.69 billion, with a net leverage of about 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA[12] - Long-term debt decreased to $1,638,686 as of September 30, 2024, down from $1,725,502 at the end of 2023[26] - Cash and cash equivalents were $70,635 as of September 30, 2024, compared to $93,971 at the end of 2023[26] - The company reported a decrease in total current assets to $484,498 from $528,505 at the end of 2023[26] - Interest expense for Q3 2024 was $45,498, down from $55,777 in Q3 2023, indicating improved debt management[27] Operational Updates - Average participant counts under the ISAP program decreased to approximately 177,000 in Q3 2024 from 184,000 in Q2 2024[4] - The Adelanto ICE Processing Center contract was extended through December 19, 2029, employing approximately 350 individuals[11] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to reduce net debt and enhance long-term shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation[25] - Future performance is subject to various risks, including changes in government policy and economic conditions, which may impact financial guidance for 2024[25]

As Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections ignited an impressive rally for private prison stocks, an old Michael Burry bet once again came into focus, although, unfortunately, due to all the gains he missed by selling early.Specifically, Geo Group (NYSE: GEO) stock collapsed in value from above $12 to about $7 during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, prompting ‘The Big Short’ investor to make a $5 million bet in Q2 of the same year.Burry cleared his stake in the private prison company only a ...