Group 1 - Groupon currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a Buy, with three Strong Buy and one Buy recommendations from five brokerage firms [2] - The ABR reflects that Strong Buy and Buy recommendations account for 60% and 20% of all recommendations, respectively [2] - Analysts' growing optimism over Groupon's earnings prospects is indicated by a 31.1% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year, now at $0.8 [14] Group 2 - The Zacks Rank for Groupon is 1 (Strong Buy), driven by the recent change in consensus estimates and other factors related to earnings estimates [15] - The ABR should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions, as studies show limited success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors [5][10] - The Zacks Rank is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it is based on earnings estimate revisions and is updated more frequently than the ABR [8][13]

Group 1 - Groupon's revenue has significantly declined, reaching approximately one-sixth of its value at the beginning of the decade by 2024 [1] Group 2 - The analyst emphasizes a focus on small and midcap companies with asymmetric upsides, highlighting a diverse professional background in the Industrials and chemicals sector [2] - The analyst's experience in finance and technology at a Canadian charity adds depth to their analysis, suggesting a synergy between execution and analytical skills [2]

Core Viewpoint - Groupon (GRPN) is experiencing significant selling pressure, with a 19.8% decline over the past four weeks, but is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it enters oversold territory, supported by analysts predicting better-than-expected earnings [1] Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that helps identify whether a stock is oversold, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions [2] - GRPN's current RSI reading is 17.52, suggesting that the heavy selling may be exhausting itself, indicating a potential reversal towards a more balanced supply and demand [5] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - There is strong consensus among sell-side analysts to raise earnings estimates for GRPN, with a 31.1% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, which typically correlates with price appreciation [7] - GRPN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further indicating a potential turnaround [8]

Group 1 - The recent rise in the stock market to all-time highs is primarily driven by large-cap technology stocks, particularly Microsoft and Oracle [1] - The author has extensive experience in covering technology companies and has been involved with seed-round startups, providing insights into current industry trends [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific investment recommendations or advice regarding the suitability of investments for individual investors [2][3]

Core Insights - Eric Lefkofsky, a notable Chicago entrepreneur, has founded six unicorn companies, including Groupon and Tempus, significantly impacting the tech landscape in Chicago [2][3][8]. Company Overview - Lefkofsky co-founded Groupon in 2008, which once had a valuation of $25 billion but has since declined due to revenue drops, leading to a downsizing in 2024 [5][24]. - Tempus, founded in 2015, is an AI-powered healthcare technology company focused on cancer treatment, currently valued at over $13 billion with a workforce of 4,000 employees [9][16]. Financial Performance - Tempus reported nearly 90% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, raising its full-year revenue guidance to $1.26 billion and projecting a positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million for 2025 [16]. - Lefkofsky has invested $100 million into Tempus, which has yet to turn a profit but is expected to do so soon [15][17]. Market Position - Tempus is one of the largest genomic sequencing companies in the U.S., with over 50% of oncologists ordering sequencing tests from the company [15]. - The company is pioneering new technologies in drug research and clinical genomic sequencing, aiming to personalize cancer treatment [13][14]. Future Prospects - Lefkofsky remains focused on Tempus, with plans to continue its growth and integration into mainstream medicine [33]. - The acquisition of Paige, an AI company specializing in digital pathology for $81 million, indicates Tempus's commitment to expanding its technological capabilities [33].

Group 1 - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Groupon (GRPN) is 2.00, indicating a Buy, with 60% of recommendations being Strong Buy and 20% being Buy [2][5] - Brokerage recommendations may not effectively guide investors, as studies show they have little success in identifying stocks with high potential for price appreciation [5][10] - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10] Group 2 - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, showing a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Groupon has increased by 94.5% over the past month to $0.8, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13] - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for Groupon, suggesting that the Buy-equivalent ABR may be a useful guide for investors [14]

Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Groupon has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a Buy, based on recommendations from five brokerage firms, with three Strong Buy and one Buy, accounting for 60% and 20% respectively [2][5] - The ABR should not be the sole basis for investment decisions, as studies show brokerage recommendations often lack success in guiding investors towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5][10] - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a higher number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [6][10] Group 2: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that categorizes stocks from Strong Buy to Strong Sell and is based on earnings estimate revisions, making it a more effective indicator of near-term stock price performance [8][11] - Unlike ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations and may not be up-to-date, Zacks Rank reflects timely changes in earnings estimates, providing a more accurate indication of future price movements [9][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Groupon has increased by 48.4% over the past month to $0.59, indicating strong analyst optimism and contributing to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for the stock [13][14] Group 3: Investment Implications - The combination of a Buy-equivalent ABR and a Zacks Rank 1 suggests that Groupon may present a legitimate investment opportunity for investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Portnoy Law Firm has initiated an investigation into Groupon, Inc. for possible securities fraud, following allegations of questionable accounting practices and misleading investors about the company's turnaround success [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Actions - The Portnoy Law Firm is encouraging Groupon investors who have incurred losses to contact them for a potential class action lawsuit [1][2]. - The firm offers a complimentary case evaluation to discuss options for recovering losses [2][4]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Allegations - On June 9, 2025, a report by short-seller Captain's Log claimed that Groupon engaged in questionable accounting practices, leading to a decline in the stock price by $1.61 per share, or approximately 4.89%, closing at $31.33 per share [3].

Core Viewpoint - Groupon (GRPN) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in stock price movements [4]. Business Outlook - The upgrade in Groupon's rating suggests an improvement in the company's underlying business, which could lead to an increase in stock price as investors respond positively [5][10]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Groupon is expected to earn $0.30 per share, with a significant increase of 265.5% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Groupon's upgrade places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global billings grew 12% year over year, with North America local billings up 20% and international local billings, excluding Italy and GiftCloud, up 15% year over year [2][3] - Free cash flow of $25 million was generated, indicating profitable growth while investing in the platform [3] - Full year billings guidance was raised from 3-5% to 7-9% growth, reflecting strong business momentum [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core local category, excluding Italy and GiftCloud, grew 19% and now represents nearly 90% of total billings [2] - North America "things to do" segment delivered strong double-digit growth for the sixth consecutive quarter, particularly in amusement parks and multi-attraction tour passes [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America enterprise brands had 26 brands generating over $1 million in quarterly billings, representing 53% year-over-year growth [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building a hyper-local experience marketplace that combines trust, curation, quality, and value [5] - A proactive refinancing was announced to simplify the capital structure and eliminate constraints, positioning the company for growth [3] - The management is committed to developing leaders from within, with new appointments in key executive roles [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management sees AI-generated traffic as a tailwind, with expectations of significant growth in this area [10] - The company is optimistic about the future, citing multiple levers for accelerating growth and building long-term value [4][5] - There is a focus on re-engaging lost cohorts and improving customer acquisition and retention [36] Other Important Information - The settlement with Italy is not yet binding and requires various approvals, but it may signal the end of past tax issues [38] - The company is exploring options for potentially reopening the local business in Italy [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on AI-generated traffic? - Management believes AI traffic is incremental and sees it as a positive trend with strong double-digit growth every month [10] Question: What efforts have been made to engage merchants? - The company is transforming its sales approach to be more performance-based and is focusing on understanding the economy for merchants [12][14] Question: How is the growth in AI traffic being achieved? - Growth is a mix of organic traffic and intentional enhancements to listings, with a focus on SEO and AI integration [21][26] Question: What is the dynamic between billings growth and revenue growth? - Billings are growing faster than revenue due to higher redemption rates and a mix of categories, which affects take rates [45]