Group 1 - Gates Industrial Corp (NYSE: GTES) is expected to continue outperforming the market in the foreseeable future, as indicated by previous performance trends [1] - The focus of Crude Value Insights is on cash flow and companies that generate it, highlighting value and growth prospects in the oil and natural gas sector [1] Group 2 - Subscribers to Crude Value Insights benefit from a 50+ stock model account and in-depth cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms [2] - The service includes live chat discussions about the oil and gas sector, enhancing community engagement and information sharing [2]

Group 1 - Graham (GHM) is currently outperforming the Industrial Products sector with a year-to-date return of 10.1%, compared to the sector's average gain of 7.5% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Graham is 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook, with a 20.3% increase in the consensus estimate for full-year earnings over the past quarter [3] - Graham is part of the Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, which ranks 35 in the Zacks Industry Rank, and has outperformed the average industry gain of 8.2% this year [6] Group 2 - Gates Industrial (GTES) is another stock in the Industrial Products sector that has outperformed, with a year-to-date return of 24.4% [4] - Gates Industrial also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a 5.6% increase in the consensus EPS estimate for the current year over the past three months [5]

Core Insights - Gates emphasizes sustainability as a strategic priority that drives innovation, enhances stakeholder trust, and supports long-term performance [1][2] Governance - The company has strengthened its data governance and cybersecurity protocols to safeguard stakeholder trust and support enterprise-wide initiatives [6] - Gates improved its supplier onboarding process to ensure consistent and responsible practices throughout the supply chain [6] Technology - Gates is redefining product circularity, achieving 100% diversion of rubber waste from landfills at 21 facilities and remanufacturing 32% of rubber scrap in 2024 [6] - The company was awarded 132 patents in 2024, which supports its Eco-Innovation™ efforts to create longer-lasting, lighter, and more sustainable solutions [6] Environment - Gates increased its renewable energy usage by 6% in 2024 through investments in onsite solar and purchasing renewable energy credits [6] Stewardship - The company invested in employee development, with a 160% increase in participants in training and mentorship programs from 2023 [6] - Gates provides an on-demand learning library and on-the-job opportunities to enhance skillsets and contribute to community development [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, total sales were $884 million, representing a 0.6% decline on a core basis, with foreign currency slightly positive compared to the prior year [10][12] - Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points year over year [12][8] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by approximately 8% to $0.39 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Power Transmission segment, revenues were $550 million, showing slight core growth, with personal mobility growing 18% [13] - The Fluid Power segment reported sales of $334 million, translating to a 2.5% decrease on a core basis, with mixed end market dynamics [14] - Industrial OEM sales in Fluid Power declined low double digits, while agricultural demand showed low single-digit growth for the first time since Q4 2022 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American core sales declined 1.3%, primarily affected by lower OEM demand, while replacement channel sales expanded low single digits [18] - EMEA core sales fell just over 1%, with mixed results in OEM and replacement sales [19] - East Asia and India posted approximately 4% core growth, with growth across all industrial end markets [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving gross margins through material cost savings, footprint optimization, and productivity [32] - Investments in personal mobility and data center markets are expected to drive future growth, with a pipeline exceeding $300 million [30][31] - The company aims to reduce net leverage below two times by year-end 2025 through a balanced capital deployment strategy [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a gradual recovery in personal mobility and industrial replacement markets, with expectations for growth to inflect higher in the second half of the year [31][39] - The company is optimistic about the data center market, anticipating significant growth driven by the adoption of liquid cooling technologies [41][42] - Management acknowledged challenges in the automotive OEM sector but emphasized selective participation in that market [50] Other Important Information - The company updated its 2025 guidance, raising the adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $780 million and adjusted EPS midpoint to $1.48 [9][24] - Tariff impacts are expected to be approximately $50 million annually, with plans to cover 85% to 90% of the projected impact through pricing and operational actions [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in growth pivot for Q3 - Management indicated that order rates have been as anticipated, with improvements in industrial replacement and stable automotive replacement contributing positively [38] Question: Data center market opportunity - Management expressed increased optimism about the data center market, with expectations for significant revenue growth driven by liquid cooling adoption [41][42] Question: Auto OE softness and selective participation - Management confirmed that the softness is primarily due to lower production, particularly in Europe, and reiterated their strategy of selective participation in the auto OE market [50] Question: Chain to belt conversion cost parity - Management noted that they are making progress towards cost parity between belt and chain drives, which is expected to accelerate conversions in the industrial sector [54] Question: Industrial recovery signs - Management highlighted stability in agricultural markets and improvements in industrial replacement order rates, while acknowledging ongoing challenges in construction and on-highway markets [62] Question: Free cash flow and buyback strategy - Management confirmed a balanced approach to capital deployment, focusing on debt reduction while considering stock buybacks due to undervaluation [65] Question: EBITDA margin outlook - Management confirmed expectations for high operating leverage in the second half of the year, with continued focus on core growth and enterprise initiatives [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for the second quarter were $884 million, representing a 0.6% decline on a core basis [8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points [10] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by approximately 8% to $0.39 [10] - Free cash flow grew year over year to $74 million, representing 73% conversion to adjusted net income [20] - Net leverage ratio declined to 2.2 times, improving by 0.1 times compared to the prior year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Power Transmission segment, revenues were $550 million, with high single-digit growth in industrial OEM sales offset by a decline in automotive OEM sales [11] - The Fluid Power segment reported sales of $334 million, translating to a 2.5% decrease on a core basis, with mixed end market dynamics [12] - Personal mobility grew 18% in the quarter, while the industrial replacement channel realized positive core growth for the first time since Q1 2023 [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America core sales declined 1.3%, primarily affected by lower OEM demand [15] - EMEA core sales fell just over 1%, with OEM sales down mid single digits [16] - East Asia and India posted approximately 4% core growth, with growth across all industrial end markets [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing well in an uncertain macro environment and is preparing for an anticipated acceleration in core growth over the mid-term [29] - Investments in commercial front-end and innovation are aimed at capitalizing on strategic growth opportunities [11][28] - The company anticipates that investments in new belts and sprockets will bring belt drives closer to cost parity with chains, unlocking potential market growth [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of personal mobility and anticipates growth to inflect higher in the second half of the year [29] - The company is seeing stability in agricultural markets and expects further opportunities in the industrial off-road market [29] - Management highlighted the importance of improving gross margins through material cost savings and productivity [30] Other Important Information - The company updated its 2025 guidance, raising the adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $780 million and adjusted EPS midpoint to $1.48 [7][22] - The anticipated annualized impact of tariffs is approximately $50 million, with plans to cover 85% to 90% of the projected impact through pricing and operational actions [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in growth pivot in Q3 - Management indicated that order rates have been as anticipated, with improvements in industrial replacement and personal mobility driving confidence in growth rates [36][38] Question: Data center market opportunity - Management expressed a more bullish view on the data center market, anticipating significant revenue growth driven by liquid cooling adoption [40] Question: Auto OE softness and selective participation - Management confirmed that the softness is primarily due to lower production, particularly in Europe, and emphasized their strategy of selective participation in the auto OE market [46][47] Question: Chain to belt conversion cost parity - Management noted that they are making meaningful progress towards cost parity between belt drives and chain drives, which is expected to accelerate market adoption [50][51] Question: Industrial recovery signs - Management highlighted stability in agricultural markets and improvements in industrial replacement order rates, while noting ongoing challenges in construction and on-highway markets [58][59] Question: Buyback and free cash flow confidence - Management confirmed a balanced approach to capital deployment, focusing on debt reduction while also considering stock buybacks due to undervaluation [62][63] Question: EBITDA margin outlook - Management confirmed expectations of high operating leverage in the second half of the year, with continued focus on core growth and enterprise initiatives [70][71]

Financial Performance - Net sales reached $884 million[14], with a core sales decline of 0.6% year-over-year[15] - Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million[16], representing a 22.5% adjusted EBITDA margin[17] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew by 8.3% year-over-year to $0.39[18] - Gross margin stood at 40.8%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter above 40%[20] Segment Performance - Power Transmission net sales were $550 million[27], with core sales growth of 0.6% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.3%[23], a decrease of 50 bps year-over-year[23] - Fluid Power net sales were $334 million[25], with a core sales decline of 2.5% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.9%[25], an increase of 10 bps year-over-year[28] Regional Performance - Greater China experienced core revenue growth of 0.6%[30], while East Asia & India grew by 4.4%[30] - North America and EMEA both saw core revenue declines of 1.3%[30], and South America declined by 2.9%[30] Capital Efficiency and Cash Flow - Free cash flow was $74 million[39], showing an 11% year-over-year improvement[42] - Net leverage improved to 2.2x[41] - LTM free cash flow conversion increased to 79.9%[92] Guidance - The company raised its adjusted EBITDA midpoint by $15 million and adjusted EPS by $0.04[12] - Core revenue growth outlook is maintained at 0.5% to 2.5%[43] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $765 million and $795 million[43] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.44 to $1.52[43]

Financial Performance - Gates Industrial reported quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and an increase from $0.36 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $883.7 million for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.01%, although this represents a slight decline from year-ago revenues of $885.5 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Gates Industrial has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times and topped revenue estimates four times [2] Stock Performance - Gates Industrial shares have increased approximately 20.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for it to outperform the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.35 on revenues of $836.93 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.43 on revenues of $3.4 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Gates Industrial has been favorable leading up to the earnings release, which may influence future stock movements [5][6] Industry Context - Gates Industrial operates within the Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, which is currently ranked in the top 10% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [8] - The performance of Gates Industrial's stock may also be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as research indicates that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Financial Performance - Second-quarter net sales were $883.7 million, a decrease of 0.2% year-over-year, with a core sales decline of 0.6%[5] - Net income attributable to shareholders was $56.5 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, compared to $70.7 million, or $0.27 per diluted share in the prior year[5][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $199.2 million, representing a margin of 22.5%[5] - Net income for the six months ended June 28, 2025, was $131.4 million, compared to $123.7 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.6%[19] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 28, 2025, was $386.5 million, down from $397.8 million for the same period in 2024, indicating a decrease of 3.3%[27] - For the three months ended June 28, 2025, net income attributable to shareholders was $56.5 million, a decrease from $70.7 million for the same period in 2024[32] - Adjusted net income for the six months ended June 28, 2025, was $195.0 million, compared to $187.3 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1%[32] Sales and Segment Performance - The Power Transmission segment reported net sales of $550.1 million, a 1.5% increase year-over-year, while the Fluid Power segment saw net sales decline by 2.9% to $333.6 million[4][6] - Total net sales for the three months ended June 28, 2025, were $883.7 million, a slight decline of 0.2% compared to $885.5 million for the same period in 2024[36] - For the six months ended June 28, 2025, the company experienced a net sales growth of 0.2% in Power Transmission, while Fluid Power saw a decline of 2.9%[36] - Core sales for the six months ended June 28, 2025, increased to $1,754.2 million, up from $1,748.1 million in the same period in 2024, representing a growth of 0.3%[36] Guidance and Projections - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting core sales growth between +0.5% to +2.5% year-over-year[9] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is projected to be between $765 million and $795 million[9] - Adjusted Earnings Per Share for 2025 is anticipated to be in the range of $1.44 to $1.52[9] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated at approximately $120 million[9] - Free Cash Flow conversion is expected to exceed 90% for 2025[9] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $7,217.8 million as of June 28, 2025, up from $6,786.3 million as of December 28, 2024, representing a growth of 6.4%[17] - Total current liabilities slightly increased to $729.3 million as of June 28, 2025, from $721.5 million as of December 28, 2024[17] - Total shareholders' equity rose to $3,269.0 million as of June 28, 2025, up from $3,023.6 million as of December 28, 2024, reflecting an increase of 8.1%[17] Cash Flow and Working Capital - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $722.8 million, an increase from $582.9 million at the end of the previous period, marking a rise of 24%[19] - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $110.3 million for the six months ended June 28, 2025, compared to $72.8 million for the same period in 2024, a significant increase of 51.5%[19] - The company experienced a decrease in inventories, with a reduction of $16.4 million during the six months ended June 28, 2025[19] - Free Cash Flow for the period was not explicitly stated but is a key measure for assessing cash generation[24] Other Financial Metrics - The Adjusted EBITDA margin for the six months ended June 28, 2025, was 22.3%, compared to 22.8% for the same period in 2024[27] - The effective tax rate for the six months ended June 28, 2025, was influenced by net discrete tax benefits of $7.1 million, primarily from excess tax benefits on stock option exercises[33] - Restructuring expenses for the three months ended June 28, 2025, amounted to $13.0 million, compared to $1.6 million for the same period in 2024[32] - The company reported a loss on extinguishment of debt of $14.8 million during the three months ended June 29, 2024, due to debt refinancing[34] - The impact of currency rate movements on net sales for the three months ended June 28, 2025, was a negative $3.7 million[36] - The diluted weighted-average number of shares outstanding for the three months ended June 28, 2025, was 260,469,532[32]

Core Viewpoint - Gates Industrial Corporation reported solid second-quarter results with positive core sales growth in Replacement channels and double-digit growth in Mobility business, alongside a return to growth in Agriculture for the first time since Q4 2022 [2][9] Financial Summary - Second-quarter net sales were $883.7 million, a decrease of 0.2% year-over-year, with core sales declining by 0.6% [9] - Net income attributable to shareholders was $56.5 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, while adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.39 [9][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $199.2 million, representing a margin of 22.5% [9][13] Segment Performance Power Transmission Segment - Net sales for the three months ended June 28, 2025, were $550.1 million, up 1.5% from $541.9 million in the prior year, with a core sales increase of 0.6% [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was $122.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.3% [3] Fluid Power Segment - Net sales for the three months ended June 28, 2025, were $333.6 million, down 2.9% from $343.6 million in the prior year, with a core sales decline of 2.5% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was $76.4 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.9% [4] Guidance for 2025 - The company raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting core sales growth between 0.5% to 2.5% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA of $765 million to $795 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.44 to $1.52 [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Gates Industrial (GTES) - Gates Industrial currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive momentum outlook [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - GTES shares have increased by 1.79% over the past week, while the Zacks Manufacturing - General Industrial industry has seen a slight decline of 0.01% [5] - Over the past month, GTES has shown a price change of 11.34%, outperforming the industry's 5.09% [5] - In the last quarter, GTES shares have risen by 40.62%, and over the past year, they have gained 39.82%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's increases of 19.12% and 11.85% respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for GTES is 1,566,129 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for GTES has increased, while none have decreased, raising the consensus estimate from $1.42 to $1.43 [9] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions noted [9] Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, GTES is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B, making it a strong candidate for near-term investment [11]