最近这几周，市场上其实挺多热点的，其中有很多的新政策，是前所未有的。 比如本周就出了一个消息： 国家要开始对 国债、地方债券的利息征收增值税 了，结束了债券利息免税的时代。 相当于你买国债赚到的利息钱，要征税了。 比如之前还有传言说，要对 海外炒股的收入 收20 %的个人所得税 ，很多在海外投资获得收入的投资者都被要求补上税款。 也就是你接下来海外账户买美股赚的钱，也得缴税。 大伙注意到没有，这些新收的税，全部 收的都是资产投资的利润。 对资产的收益，我们长期以来都是免税的。 为什么之前不收的税，现在要开始收了？ 我认为很重要的一个原因，是因为上面开始意识到： 这也和最近节节攀升的股市，正好对应得上。 但仅仅是因为这方面的收入会增加，就要去收税吗？ 我觉得这还只是一个相对表面的因素。 深入分析，国债利息征税以及海外收益征税背后，还有 两个更重要的信号大家一定要关注。 因为这可能会直接影响到大家接下来的财富走向。 第一个信号是： 国债规模的扩大。 有人测算，国债利息税未来的收入规模可能会达到每年500亿。 未来的东大社会，资产投资的收益会大大增加。 也就是说，未来大家通过资本市场投资赚到的钱会变多，所以才开始在 ...

本报讯(记者向炎涛)8月22日，北方国际（000065）合作股份有限公司发布2025年半年度报告。上半 年，公司实现营业收入67.35亿元，同比减少35.34%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.09亿元，同 比减少42.71%。 公司主营业务为工程建设与服务、资源供应链、电力运营、工业制造。上半年，公司充分发挥重大项目 的品牌优势，大力加强协同发展，进一步发挥重大项目品牌优势，持续深耕传统市场，努力挖潜新兴市 场，埃及、阿联酋等中高端市场首获突破。上半年签约和生效的主要项目有：埃及亚历山大阿布基尔地 铁车辆项目成交2.88亿美元；刚果(金)拉米卡源网荷储一体化项目成交6660万美元；波黑科曼耶山 125MW光伏项目生效8173万美元，印尼MBJ综合基础设施项目生效7711万美元，阿布扎比KENT房建项 目成交生效1086万美元。 上半年，公司6个运营项目稳中向好、质效双优，为全面完成年度目标形成重要支撑。同时，运营项目 品牌优势不断彰显，对当地和周边国家市场开发和项目获取积极助力。其中蒙古矿山一体化工程项目上 半年焦煤价格持续承压下行，采矿板块累计采矿1990万方，物流运输板块，采用多种降本增效措施，完 成 ...

Investment Overview - Shanghai's total fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 6.0% compared to the same period last year [1] - Investment in urban infrastructure rose by 16.9%, industrial investment grew by 22.5%, and real estate development investment increased by 3.3% [1] - The actual funds in place for investment in the city increased by 2.5% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The total industrial output value of large-scale industrial enterprises in Shanghai reached 22,479.30 billion yuan, marking a 5.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The industrial sales rate stood at 99.0%, unchanged from the previous year [1] - Export delivery value from large-scale industrial enterprises was 4,558.67 billion yuan, up by 8.4% compared to last year [1] Consumer Retail Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Shanghai amounted to 9,551.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] - Retail sales of goods reached 8,409.84 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.3%, while catering revenue decreased by 2.9% to 1,141.95 billion yuan [1] Retail Sector Breakdown - Retail sales of grain and oil, food categories reached 842.76 billion yuan, up by 10.1% [2] - Sales in clothing, shoes, and textiles were 1,915.43 billion yuan, growing by 3.3% [2] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 22.4%, totaling 295.52 billion yuan [2] - Automotive sales, however, declined by 10.3%, amounting to 900.53 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - Company Name: Shuangdeng Co., Ltd. (06960.HK) [1] - Industry: Industrial Manufacturing [1] - Core Business: Provides energy storage batteries and system solutions for communication base stations and data centers [1][2] - Established: 2011 in Taizhou, Jiangsu [1] - Market Position: Leading in global communication and data center energy storage battery market with 11.1% market share [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue Growth: Revenue increased from 4.07 billion RMB in 2022 to 4.50 billion RMB in 2024 [3][4] - Recent Performance: Revenue for the first five months of 2025 reached 1.87 billion RMB, a 33.9% increase year-on-year [4] - Net Profit: Fluctuated from 2.81 billion RMB in 2022 to 3.53 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.27 billion RMB for the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Data Center Business: Revenue from data center business surged nearly 120% year-on-year, accounting for 46.7% of total revenue [4] - Industry Growth: Global data center energy storage installation is expected to grow from 16.5 GWh in 2024 to 209.4 GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 52.7% [6] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Strong Client Base: Collaborates with five of the top ten global telecom operators and all major Chinese telecom operators [2] - Technology Strategy: Employs a parallel strategy of "lead-acid + lithium + sodium batteries" to meet diverse market needs [5] - Unique Market Position: Differentiates from electric vehicle battery manufacturers by focusing on energy security for infrastructure [7] Group 5: IPO Details - IPO Date: Subscription from August 18 to August 21, 2023 [1] - Total Shares Issued: 58.557 million shares, with 10% allocated for public sale [1] - Market Capitalization: Approximately 60.48 billion HKD with a P/E ratio of 16 [1][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month economic data was generally below expectations, showing a weak - recovery pattern of "stable production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which confirmed the "weak demand + low inflation" fundamental for the bond market. The risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. It was suggested to seize the adjustment window in the third quarter and gradually allocate bonds after the adjustment [1]. - Short - term concerns included changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, and the effect of policies like fiscal discounts on private - sector financing demand [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities showed differentiated performance. In Beijing and Shenzhen, it increased week - on - week, while in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, it decreased [2][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption decreased week - on - week. The box office of movies decreased week - on - week but was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased week - on - week, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased [2][38]. 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rates of rebar, PTA, and polyester filament decreased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased [3][47]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased, but the latter was still at a seasonal high [3][47]. 3.3 Investment - Rebar: Apparent consumption decreased, but the price increased week - on - week [4][64]. - Cement: The price decreased week - on - week, while the shipping rate and inventory ratio increased [4][64]. 3.4 Trade - Export: Port throughput increased, while the comprehensive CCFI index decreased. The BDI index increased week - on - week [5][75]. - Import: The comprehensive CICFI index decreased by 1.2% week - on - week [5][75]. 3.5 Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.7% week - on - week. Vegetable prices increased, while egg, pork, and fruit prices decreased [6][86]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.2% week - on - week. Brent crude oil and COMEX gold prices decreased, while LME copper prices increased. The commodity futures market was stable with differentiated performance among varieties [6][91]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds was 765.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 495.2 billion yuan [7][110]. - As of August 15, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeded 95%, that of new general bonds was 72.0%, and that of new special bonds was 64.5% [7][112][117]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The Q2 monetary policy report emphasized implementing and refining a moderately loose monetary policy, including maintaining sufficient liquidity, matching financing and money supply with economic growth targets, and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [122][123]. - Multiple policies were introduced in the week, including fiscal subsidy policies for consumer loans, tax policies for express delivery services, and real - estate policies in some regions [123][124].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674.4 points, reaching a new high since December 2021 [1] - The "924 market" on October 8, 2024, saw the index open up 10.13% and close at 3674.4 points, marking a historic peak driven by strong policy support [3] Policy Impact - A series of robust policies were introduced by the central bank, financial regulators, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 24, which contributed to the market rally [3] - The State Council emphasized measures to boost the capital market and guide long-term funds into the market during a press conference on October 8 [3] Market Trends - The research team believes that the A-share market has entered its fifth bull market, characterized as a "systematic slow bull," with a shift in asset allocation towards equity assets by residents [5] - The long-term target for the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to exceed the 3700-point mark [5] Sector Performance - The financial sector remains a key driver of the index's strength, with a notable performance from brokerage firms, while the banking sector has seen a pullback [6] - Leading brokerages such as Guosheng Securities and Changcheng Securities have shown significant gains [6] Investment Opportunities - Recent trends indicate three main drivers for the brokerage industry: an increase in T0 client numbers, steady growth in client margin scales, and a noticeable increase in leverage among existing clients [10] - The research team anticipates that the equity allocation by insurance funds, wealth management, and public offerings will likely rebound, opening growth opportunities for brokerage services [10] Large-cap Stocks - Eight large-cap stocks, including Industrial Fulian and Zijin Mining, have reached historical highs, indicating strong performance in the market [11] - The market has shown a trend where large-cap stocks outperform smaller indices, likely due to institutional funds entering the market [11] Future Outlook - The research team predicts that the A-share market will continue to experience a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on large financial stocks and large-cap companies as potential investment targets [12]

天眼查App显示，近日，深圳市海铭鸥工业有限公司成立，法定代表人为潘新葵，注册资本20万人民 币，经营范围为一般经营项目是：交通及公共管理用标牌销售；五金产品批发；五金产品零售；五金产 品研发；高速精密齿轮传动装置销售；高速精密重载轴承销售；机械零件、零部件销售；人造板销售； 高性能有色金属及合金材料销售；高品质特种钢铁材料销售；金属链条及其他金属制品销售；广告制 作；平面设计；数字广告制作；数字广告设计、代理；广告设计、代理；数字广告发布；广告发布；贸 易经纪；国内贸易代理；货物进出口；进出口代理；数字内容制作服务（不含出版发行）；工业设计服 务；工业酶制剂研发；工业机器人销售；工业工程设计服务；工业自动控制系统装置销售；工业控制计 算机及系统销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动），许可经营项目 是：无。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the monthly net purchase amount of Southbound Capital to evaluate its effectiveness in driving sector rotation in the Hong Kong stock market[12][40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The net purchase amount for each stock is calculated as: $$ S_{i,t} = (N_{i,t} - N_{i,t-1}) * P_{i,t} $$ Where: \( N_{i,t} \) = Southbound Capital holdings of stock \( i \) on day \( t \)[37] \( P_{i,t} \) = Average price of stock \( i \) on day \( t \)[37] - The sector-level net purchase amount is aggregated as: $$ Ind_{t} = \sum S_{i,t} $$ Where \( Ind_{t} \) represents the cumulative net purchase amount for the sector on day \( t \)[37]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a positive Rank IC mean, indicating its effectiveness in sector rotation strategies[40]. 2. Model Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Adjust the Southbound Capital net purchase amount by sector market capitalization to improve strategy performance[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The net purchase amount is calculated as in the previous model. - Adjustments are made based on the market capitalization of each sector to normalize the influence of large-cap sectors[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: This adjustment improves strategy returns and reduces maximum drawdown compared to the unadjusted model[46][48]. 3. Model Name: Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Use the three-year percentile rank of Southbound Capital net purchases to identify sector preferences over a longer historical period[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the three-year percentile rank of the net purchase amount for each sector. - Rank sectors based on their percentile values to determine rotation preferences[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: The three-year percentile model provides a longer-term perspective but shows slightly lower Rank IC values compared to the unadjusted model[40]. 4. Model Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine market capitalization adjustments with the three-year percentile rank to enhance strategy robustness[40]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the three-year percentile rank of net purchases. - Rank sectors based on the adjusted values to guide rotation decisions[40]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model achieves the best overall performance, with the highest Sharpe ratio and IR among all tested strategies[46][48]. --- Model Backtest Results 1. Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Model - **Annualized Return**: 4.73% - **Excess Return**: 3.22% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 56.01% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.3130 - **IR**: 0.3864[52] 2. Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Model - **Annualized Return**: 5.40% - **Excess Return**: 3.89% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 50.24% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.3384 - **IR**: 0.3901[52] 3. Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Model - **Annualized Return**: 3.61% - **Excess Return**: -2.05% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 54.33% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.2704 - **IR**: 0.1498[52] 4. Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Model - **Annualized Return**: 7.99% - **Excess Return**: 2.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.84% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.4350 - **IR**: 0.4713[52] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure the monthly net purchase amount of Southbound Capital to assess its impact on sector rotation[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net purchase amount for each stock and aggregate it at the sector level as described in the model construction process[37]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows a positive Rank IC mean, indicating its predictive power for sector rotation[40]. 2. Factor Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjust the net purchase amount by sector market capitalization to reduce bias from large-cap sectors[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the net purchase amount as described in the model construction process[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The adjustment improves the factor's effectiveness, as evidenced by higher Rank IC values[40]. 3. Factor Name: Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use the three-year percentile rank of net purchases to capture longer-term sector preferences[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the three-year percentile rank for each sector's net purchase amount[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a longer-term perspective but shows slightly lower Rank IC values compared to the unadjusted factor[40]. 4. Factor Name: Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine market cap adjustments with the three-year percentile rank to enhance factor robustness[40]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Apply market cap adjustments to the three-year percentile rank as described in the model construction process[40]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor achieves the best overall performance, with the highest Rank IC values among all tested factors[40]. --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Southbound Capital Monthly Net Purchase Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 7.72% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 24.31%[41] 2. Market Cap-Adjusted Southbound Capital Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 5.15% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 15.66%[41] 3. Three-Year Percentile Southbound Capital Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 4.13% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 12.75%[41] 4. Market Cap-Adjusted Three-Year Percentile Factor - **Rank IC Mean**: 4.55% - **Rank IC t-Value**: 14.82%[41]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March [3] Agricultural Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, and measures will be taken to adjust the breeding of approximately 1 million sows to prevent price volatility [3] Small and Medium Enterprises - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July remained stable at 89.0, with significant increases in sectors such as construction, transportation, real estate, and information technology [3] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate has risen to 20.11%, significantly higher than the 2.44% at the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial increase in trade barriers [5] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing recent tariff adjustments as a negative influence on global trade prospects [5] International Relations - European leaders emphasized that any diplomatic solution regarding the Ukraine crisis must protect the significant security interests of Europe and Ukraine [5] - Discussions are ongoing between Qatar and the U.S. regarding a comprehensive ceasefire agreement for the Gaza conflict, expected to be submitted for discussion soon [5]

Core Viewpoint - Danaher Corporation is recognized as a "king of mergers and acquisitions" with a remarkable track record of 400 acquisitions over 40 years, yielding an 1800-fold return, making it a model for companies like Midea, Fosun, and WuXi Biologics to learn from [2][3]. Company Overview - Danaher Corporation, founded in 1984 by Steven and Mitchell Rales, has evolved from a real estate trust into a diversified global company with a market value exceeding $200 billion as of 2024 [4][5]. - The company maintains a low profile despite owning well-known brands such as Leica Microsystems and Pantone, and has been pivotal in supplying critical equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic [6][12]. Financial Performance - Danaher has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway in stock price performance over the past 40 years, achieving nearly 100,000% total shareholder return since its inception, compared to just over 4,000% for the S&P 500 during the same period [9][8]. - The company has consistently delivered a compound annual growth rate of 22% in total shareholder returns from 1984 to 2019, significantly surpassing other diversified companies [9][8]. M&A Strategy - Over its 40-year history, Danaher has completed nearly 400 acquisitions, investing approximately $90 billion, which has contributed to its current market valuation of around $200 billion [11][10]. - The company’s approach to mergers and acquisitions not only increases its size but also enhances its operational efficiency, allowing it to discover multiple growth avenues [12][10]. Management and Operational Excellence - Danaher’s management system, known as DBS (Danaher Business System), is recognized for its effectiveness in operational improvements, often yielding significant increases in profit margins for acquired companies [14][15]. - The company has a strong track record of developing CEOs, with many of its former executives taking leadership roles in other major corporations [17][18]. Business Evolution - Danaher’s business model has transformed significantly over the decades, moving from leveraged buyouts to lean operations, and now focusing on healthcare technology [26][27]. - The company’s revenue has grown from under $1 billion in 1990 to approximately $31.5 billion in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of about 12% [25][27]. Conclusion - Danaher Corporation exemplifies a successful blend of a long-term acquisition fund and a management consulting firm, demonstrating a unique ability to adapt and thrive in various industries [22][23].