The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) suggests a 0.9% decrease year over year to $1.05. The estimate has dropped by 1 cent in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third- quarter revenues currently stands at $1.01 billion, suggesting a 0.4% decline year over year. | | Q1 | Q2 | F1 | F2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 7 Days Ago | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 30 Days Ago | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 4.50 | | 60 Days Ago | 1 ...

Core Insights - Breast cancer remains a major global health issue and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly playing a crucial role in improving clinical outcomes and decision-making [1] Group 1: Hologic's Innovations and Market Position - Hologic has set a new standard in breast cancer screening with its Genius 3D mammography exam, which is FDA-approved and superior to 2D mammography for all women, including those with dense breast tissue [2] - The company's Genius AI platform enhances cancer detection and operational efficiency, and it powers the FDA-approved 3DQuorum technology, which significantly reduces read time for radiologists [2] - Hologic's Genius AI Detection 2.0 solution has shown consistent results across diverse populations, and the upcoming Genius AI Detection PRO solution promises greater accuracy and fewer false positives [3] - The Envision Mammography Platform, which offers a 2.5-second scan time, is set to be launched, making it the fastest 3D mammography platform available [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - GE Healthcare has the largest global footprint in breast imaging systems, with innovations like the Pristina Via mammography system and Invenia ABUS Premium, which enhance the screening experience and drive faster, reproducible results [5] - RadNet, through its subsidiary DeepHealth, has acquired See-Mode Technologies to enhance its AI-powered ultrasound solutions and plans to acquire iCAD, known for its AI-powered breast health solutions [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Hologic's stock has declined by 12.3% year-to-date, compared to the industry's 10.2% decline [7] - The company is trading at a forward three-year price-to-earnings ratio of 14.25X, which is lower than the industry average of 28.35X [9] - Consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 0.5% for fiscal 2025 and 1.1% for 2026 over the past 60 days [10]

Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) closed at $63.26, reflecting a -2.1% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - The stock has decreased by 0.86% over the past month, contributing to the Medical sector's loss of 1.56%, while the S&P 500 gained 4.97% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Hologic is set to announce its earnings on July 30, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.05, indicating a 0.94% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted at $1.01 billion, reflecting a 0.39% decrease compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $4.19 per share and revenue at $4.08 billion, representing changes of +2.7% and +1.16% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Hologic are important as they indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3][4] Valuation Metrics - Hologic's Forward P/E ratio is 15.41, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 23.06 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.37, compared to the Medical - Instruments industry's average PEG ratio of 2.24 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry, part of the Medical sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - The demand for gynecology surgical instruments is increasing due to the rising prevalence of gynecological diseases and government investments in women's health, with a projected market growth rate of 8.26% CAGR from 2024 to 2032 [1] - Hologic's GYN Surgical business has shown a 7.6% CAGR over the past decade, driven by the MyoSure suite and the Fluent fluid management system [1][8] - The launch of the Fluent Pro system in late 2024 is expected to enhance MyoSure's performance and user experience, contributing positively to Hologic's Surgical performance [2] Market Position and Growth - Hologic's International Surgical segment remains the leading revenue driver, supported by investments in market development for minimally invasive GYN products [2] - Legacy NovaSure devices are gaining traction in Europe, despite declining volumes in the U.S., indicating significant expansion opportunities in international markets [3] - Inorganic investments, such as the acquisitions of Acessa Health and Gynesonics, have strengthened Hologic's product offerings and global market reach [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic faces competition from major companies like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic in the GYN Surgical space [5] - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech segment reported $8 billion in sales for Q1 2025, with a 4.1% year-over-year growth [6] - Medtronic's Medical Surgical Portfolio saw a 2% increase in Q4 2025, with expectations for improved growth as it expands its robotic platform [6] Financial Performance - Hologic's stock has declined by 8.7% year-to-date, slightly better than the industry's 9.1% decline [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.85, which is lower than the industry average of 28.39 [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a bearish trend, with current estimates remaining stable [10][11]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Core Insights - Hologic's Molecular Diagnostics business experienced a 7.8% growth in Q2 of fiscal 2025, excluding COVID-19-related sales, but faced challenges due to reduced HIV testing sales in Africa from USAID funding cuts [1][8] - The long-term outlook for the Molecular Diagnostics segment remains positive, driven by over 20 assays on the Panther platforms and a focus on increasing test utilization [2] - Innovations such as the BV/CV/TV assay are contributing to growth, addressing significant testing gaps in women's health [3] - Hologic's Molecular Diagnostics is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% from 2025 to 2027 [4] Company Performance - Hologic's stock has increased by 3.6% in the last 30 days, contrasting with a 0.7% decline in the industry [7] - The company is trading at a forward five-year sales multiple of 3.44X, below the industry average of 4.11X, and currently holds a Value Score of B [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a downward trend, with current earnings projections for fiscal 2025 at $4.19 per share [10][11]

Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) ended the recent trading session at $65.11, demonstrating a +1.31% change from the preceding day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.8% [1] - The stock has climbed by 0.88% in the past month, which is below the Medical sector's gain of 3.12% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12% [1] Earnings Projections - Hologic's upcoming earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $1.05, reflecting a 0.94% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - The latest consensus estimate predicts revenue to be $1.01 billion, indicating a 0.39% decrease compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates call for earnings of $4.19 per share and revenue of $4.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +2.7% and +1.16%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Hologic suggest a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance, with positive estimate revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [4][3] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Hologic at 4 (Sell) [5] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.11% downward [5] Valuation Metrics - Hologic is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.32, which is a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 27.05 for its industry [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.36, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.25 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry, part of the Medical sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 181, positioning it in the bottom 27% of all 250+ industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Hologic's consistent profitability has resulted in strong annual cash flow generation of approximately $1 billion, which supports a robust balance sheet and capital deployment strategy focused on tuck-in acquisitions and share repurchases [1][8] - Recent acquisitions, including Biotheranostics, Endomagnetics, and Gynesonics, are expected to enhance revenue growth and improve operating margins, as these businesses are growing faster than Hologic's legacy units [2][3][4] - Hologic maintains a strong financial position with $1.6 billion in cash and investments and a leverage ratio below 1X, allowing for continued investments in acquisitions and share buybacks [2][8] Acquisition Strategy - Hologic has allocated approximately $3.6 billion for share repurchases and $2 billion for mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on high-growth adjacent markets [1] - The integration of Biotheranostics is expected to benefit from increased lab testing volumes, while Endomagnetics is positioned to capture significant market opportunities in wireless localization [3] - Gynesonics' Sonata System is anticipated to strengthen Hologic's International Surgical business by providing a minimally invasive treatment option for uterine fibroids [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic's rivals, such as Becton, Dickinson and Company and Thermo Fisher Scientific, are also engaging in share repurchases and acquisitions, with BDX reporting $625 million in free cash flow and TMO returning $2.1 billion to shareholders [5][6] - Hologic's stock has performed relatively well, rising 5.3% over the past three months, while the industry has seen an 8.6% decline [7] Financial Performance and Estimates - Hologic's forward two-year earnings multiple stands at 14.66X, indicating a favorable position relative to the industry [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings remain stable, with projected earnings of $4.19 for the current year and $4.50 for the next year [10][11]

Core Insights - The demand for gynecological surgical instruments is increasing as more women seek surgical procedures for gynecological conditions, positively impacting the GYN Surgical market outlook [1] - Companies like Hologic and CooperCompanies are positioned well in this growing market, attracting investor interest [1] Hologic Overview - Hologic's Surgical business is a key growth driver, with international sales increasing by 16.2% in Q2 of fiscal 2025, supported by market development and awareness of minimally invasive GYN products like MyoSure [4] - The Fluent Pro system, launched in late 2024, is gaining traction, contributing to the growth of the Surgical unit, which is expected to see high-single-digit growth this year due to the acquisition of Gynesonics [4][7] - Hologic benefits from multiple growth drivers across segments, including advancements in molecular diagnostics and strong adoption of the Breast Cancer Index test [5] - The Skeletal Health segment reported a 22.9% growth in Q2 due to increased production of DXA systems, while the Breast Health segment faces challenges in the capital equipment market [6] - Hologic's profitability allows for M&A and share buybacks, but external pressures such as tariffs and funding cuts may impact costs and outlook [7] CooperCompanies Overview - CooperSurgical is experiencing growth in its surgical medical devices and labor delivery portfolio, with Paragard, a contraceptive IUD, growing by 18% in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [8] - The fertility business is currently soft, particularly in Asia-Pacific, but long-term growth prospects remain positive due to strong underlying fundamentals [9] - Recent acquisition of obp Surgical saw a 31% growth in Q2, indicating potential in the office and surgical category for minimally invasive GYN devices [9] - CooperCompanies is well-positioned financially, expecting a rebound in free cash flow in the second half of the year, while also prioritizing debt reduction [12] Financial Performance and Valuation - Hologic's fiscal 2025 EPS is expected to grow by 2.7%, with recent estimates trending downward [13] - CooperCompanies is projected to see a 10% year-over-year growth in EPS, with analysts becoming more bullish due to upward revisions [13] - Year-to-date, Hologic shares have decreased by 10.5%, while CooperCompanies shares have fallen by 24.4% [14] - Hologic is trading at a five-year price-to-sales ratio of 3.40X, while CooperCompanies is at 3.24X, both below industry averages [15] Investment Outlook - Both Hologic and CooperCompanies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with Hologic benefiting from international momentum and Gynesonics expansion, despite macro pressures [17] - CooperCompanies faces challenges in fertility but has strong growth in GYN Surgical and contact lens offerings, supporting a case for retaining the stock [18] - Hologic appears to be better positioned than CooperCompanies due to its more favorable valuation [18]

Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) closed at $64.14, reflecting a -1.6% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.84% [1] - Over the past month, Hologic's shares have increased by 14.77%, while the Medical sector remained flat at 0% and the S&P 500 gained 1.44% [1] Earnings Expectations - Hologic is expected to report an EPS of $1.06, unchanged from the prior-year quarter, with a revenue estimate of $1.01 billion, indicating a 0.39% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $4.2 per share and revenue of $4.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +2.94% and +1.16%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Valuation - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Hologic are crucial, as positive revisions often indicate a favorable business outlook [3] - Hologic currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with a Forward P/E ratio of 15.52, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 26.88 [5] - The PEG ratio for Hologic stands at 2.39, compared to the Medical - Instruments industry average of 2.26 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry is ranked 151 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 39% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Rank system indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]