Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) closed at $63.26, reflecting a -2.1% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - The stock has decreased by 0.86% over the past month, contributing to the Medical sector's loss of 1.56%, while the S&P 500 gained 4.97% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Hologic is set to announce its earnings on July 30, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.05, indicating a 0.94% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted at $1.01 billion, reflecting a 0.39% decrease compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $4.19 per share and revenue at $4.08 billion, representing changes of +2.7% and +1.16% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Hologic are important as they indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3][4] Valuation Metrics - Hologic's Forward P/E ratio is 15.41, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 23.06 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.37, compared to the Medical - Instruments industry's average PEG ratio of 2.24 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry, part of the Medical sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - The demand for gynecology surgical instruments is increasing due to the rising prevalence of gynecological diseases and government investments in women's health, with a projected market growth rate of 8.26% CAGR from 2024 to 2032 [1] - Hologic's GYN Surgical business has shown a 7.6% CAGR over the past decade, driven by the MyoSure suite and the Fluent fluid management system [1][8] - The launch of the Fluent Pro system in late 2024 is expected to enhance MyoSure's performance and user experience, contributing positively to Hologic's Surgical performance [2] Market Position and Growth - Hologic's International Surgical segment remains the leading revenue driver, supported by investments in market development for minimally invasive GYN products [2] - Legacy NovaSure devices are gaining traction in Europe, despite declining volumes in the U.S., indicating significant expansion opportunities in international markets [3] - Inorganic investments, such as the acquisitions of Acessa Health and Gynesonics, have strengthened Hologic's product offerings and global market reach [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic faces competition from major companies like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic in the GYN Surgical space [5] - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech segment reported $8 billion in sales for Q1 2025, with a 4.1% year-over-year growth [6] - Medtronic's Medical Surgical Portfolio saw a 2% increase in Q4 2025, with expectations for improved growth as it expands its robotic platform [6] Financial Performance - Hologic's stock has declined by 8.7% year-to-date, slightly better than the industry's 9.1% decline [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.85, which is lower than the industry average of 28.39 [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a bearish trend, with current estimates remaining stable [10][11]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Core Insights - Hologic's Molecular Diagnostics business experienced a 7.8% growth in Q2 of fiscal 2025, excluding COVID-19-related sales, but faced challenges due to reduced HIV testing sales in Africa from USAID funding cuts [1][8] - The long-term outlook for the Molecular Diagnostics segment remains positive, driven by over 20 assays on the Panther platforms and a focus on increasing test utilization [2] - Innovations such as the BV/CV/TV assay are contributing to growth, addressing significant testing gaps in women's health [3] - Hologic's Molecular Diagnostics is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% from 2025 to 2027 [4] Company Performance - Hologic's stock has increased by 3.6% in the last 30 days, contrasting with a 0.7% decline in the industry [7] - The company is trading at a forward five-year sales multiple of 3.44X, below the industry average of 4.11X, and currently holds a Value Score of B [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a downward trend, with current earnings projections for fiscal 2025 at $4.19 per share [10][11]

Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) ended the recent trading session at $65.11, demonstrating a +1.31% change from the preceding day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.8% [1] - The stock has climbed by 0.88% in the past month, which is below the Medical sector's gain of 3.12% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12% [1] Earnings Projections - Hologic's upcoming earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $1.05, reflecting a 0.94% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - The latest consensus estimate predicts revenue to be $1.01 billion, indicating a 0.39% decrease compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates call for earnings of $4.19 per share and revenue of $4.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +2.7% and +1.16%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Hologic suggest a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance, with positive estimate revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [4][3] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Hologic at 4 (Sell) [5] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.11% downward [5] Valuation Metrics - Hologic is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.32, which is a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 27.05 for its industry [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.36, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.25 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry, part of the Medical sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 181, positioning it in the bottom 27% of all 250+ industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Hologic's consistent profitability has resulted in strong annual cash flow generation of approximately $1 billion, which supports a robust balance sheet and capital deployment strategy focused on tuck-in acquisitions and share repurchases [1][8] - Recent acquisitions, including Biotheranostics, Endomagnetics, and Gynesonics, are expected to enhance revenue growth and improve operating margins, as these businesses are growing faster than Hologic's legacy units [2][3][4] - Hologic maintains a strong financial position with $1.6 billion in cash and investments and a leverage ratio below 1X, allowing for continued investments in acquisitions and share buybacks [2][8] Acquisition Strategy - Hologic has allocated approximately $3.6 billion for share repurchases and $2 billion for mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on high-growth adjacent markets [1] - The integration of Biotheranostics is expected to benefit from increased lab testing volumes, while Endomagnetics is positioned to capture significant market opportunities in wireless localization [3] - Gynesonics' Sonata System is anticipated to strengthen Hologic's International Surgical business by providing a minimally invasive treatment option for uterine fibroids [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic's rivals, such as Becton, Dickinson and Company and Thermo Fisher Scientific, are also engaging in share repurchases and acquisitions, with BDX reporting $625 million in free cash flow and TMO returning $2.1 billion to shareholders [5][6] - Hologic's stock has performed relatively well, rising 5.3% over the past three months, while the industry has seen an 8.6% decline [7] Financial Performance and Estimates - Hologic's forward two-year earnings multiple stands at 14.66X, indicating a favorable position relative to the industry [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings remain stable, with projected earnings of $4.19 for the current year and $4.50 for the next year [10][11]

Core Insights - The demand for gynecological surgical instruments is increasing as more women seek surgical procedures for gynecological conditions, positively impacting the GYN Surgical market outlook [1] - Companies like Hologic and CooperCompanies are positioned well in this growing market, attracting investor interest [1] Hologic Overview - Hologic's Surgical business is a key growth driver, with international sales increasing by 16.2% in Q2 of fiscal 2025, supported by market development and awareness of minimally invasive GYN products like MyoSure [4] - The Fluent Pro system, launched in late 2024, is gaining traction, contributing to the growth of the Surgical unit, which is expected to see high-single-digit growth this year due to the acquisition of Gynesonics [4][7] - Hologic benefits from multiple growth drivers across segments, including advancements in molecular diagnostics and strong adoption of the Breast Cancer Index test [5] - The Skeletal Health segment reported a 22.9% growth in Q2 due to increased production of DXA systems, while the Breast Health segment faces challenges in the capital equipment market [6] - Hologic's profitability allows for M&A and share buybacks, but external pressures such as tariffs and funding cuts may impact costs and outlook [7] CooperCompanies Overview - CooperSurgical is experiencing growth in its surgical medical devices and labor delivery portfolio, with Paragard, a contraceptive IUD, growing by 18% in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [8] - The fertility business is currently soft, particularly in Asia-Pacific, but long-term growth prospects remain positive due to strong underlying fundamentals [9] - Recent acquisition of obp Surgical saw a 31% growth in Q2, indicating potential in the office and surgical category for minimally invasive GYN devices [9] - CooperCompanies is well-positioned financially, expecting a rebound in free cash flow in the second half of the year, while also prioritizing debt reduction [12] Financial Performance and Valuation - Hologic's fiscal 2025 EPS is expected to grow by 2.7%, with recent estimates trending downward [13] - CooperCompanies is projected to see a 10% year-over-year growth in EPS, with analysts becoming more bullish due to upward revisions [13] - Year-to-date, Hologic shares have decreased by 10.5%, while CooperCompanies shares have fallen by 24.4% [14] - Hologic is trading at a five-year price-to-sales ratio of 3.40X, while CooperCompanies is at 3.24X, both below industry averages [15] Investment Outlook - Both Hologic and CooperCompanies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with Hologic benefiting from international momentum and Gynesonics expansion, despite macro pressures [17] - CooperCompanies faces challenges in fertility but has strong growth in GYN Surgical and contact lens offerings, supporting a case for retaining the stock [18] - Hologic appears to be better positioned than CooperCompanies due to its more favorable valuation [18]

Company Performance - Hologic (HOLX) closed at $64.14, reflecting a -1.6% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.84% [1] - Over the past month, Hologic's shares have increased by 14.77%, while the Medical sector remained flat at 0% and the S&P 500 gained 1.44% [1] Earnings Expectations - Hologic is expected to report an EPS of $1.06, unchanged from the prior-year quarter, with a revenue estimate of $1.01 billion, indicating a 0.39% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $4.2 per share and revenue of $4.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of +2.94% and +1.16%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Valuation - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Hologic are crucial, as positive revisions often indicate a favorable business outlook [3] - Hologic currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with a Forward P/E ratio of 15.52, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 26.88 [5] - The PEG ratio for Hologic stands at 2.39, compared to the Medical - Instruments industry average of 2.26 [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Instruments industry is ranked 151 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 39% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Rank system indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 61.1% for Q2 of fiscal 2025, an increase of 40 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong diagnostic sales and high-margin acquisitions [1][8] - The company has adopted a cautious full-year outlook due to macroeconomic volatility, with expected tariff impacts adding $20 million-$25 million to quarterly costs [2] - Despite challenges, Hologic anticipates growth in its Diagnostics and Surgical segments, with gross margins projected to remain in the low 60s for the full year [3][8] Financial Performance - Hologic's operating margin for the quarter was 30%, which is among the strongest in its peer group, and increased by 60 basis points sequentially [1] - The Diagnostics segment is expected to grow in the mid-single digits, while the Surgical segment is projected to grow in the high-single digits [2][3] - The company has lowered its revenue forecast for China by approximately $20 million, now estimating $50 million, to mitigate geopolitical risks [2] Competitive Landscape - GE Healthcare (GEHC) reported an 80 basis points year-over-year improvement in adjusted gross margin, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 15% [4] - Bio-Rad (BIO) experienced a non-GAAP gross margin of 53.8%, down 0.7% year-over-year, but its operating margin increased to 10.8% [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Hologic shares have decreased by 10.4% over the past six months, compared to a 13.8% decline in the industry [6] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.42X, which is above the sector average [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 2.9% year-over-year improvement [10]

Core Business Outlook - Hologic is adjusting its fiscal 2025 sales outlook by excluding the HIV testing business in Africa, which previously generated $50 million annually, due to the cessation of USAID funding [1][9] - The revenue forecast for China has been reduced to nearly $50 million for the year, influenced by increased tariff pressures, rising anti-American sentiment, and strong local competition [1] Cost Pressures - Tariffs related to manufacturing in Costa Rica and China are expected to increase quarterly inventory acquisition costs by approximately $20 million to $25 million, impacting profitability [2] Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - Despite challenges, Hologic remains optimistic about delivering solid financial results, supported by cost-effective infectious disease and cancer tests that aid in early detection and reduce overall healthcare costs [3] - The Molecular diagnostics business is anticipated to perform well, driven by strong demand for specific assays and the growing utilization of the Panther platform [3][9] Breast Health Segment - Hologic's Breast Health products provide a strong foundation, with the service business growing 12% year over year in the fiscal 2025 second quarter, outpacing capital sales growth [4] Peer Comparison - QIAGEN has shown resilience in a cautious spending environment, with first-quarter sales and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and a forecasted 4% constant exchange rate growth in its core portfolio [5] - Medtronic projects a net tariff impact of $200 million to $350 million on its cost of goods sold for fiscal 2026, while still expecting approximately 4% EPS growth excluding tariff impacts [6] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Hologic shares have decreased by 10.1%, compared to a 13.9% decline in the industry [7] Valuation Metrics - Hologic trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.44X, which is lower than its median of 3.99X and the industry average of 4.11X, indicating a favorable valuation [10]