Core Viewpoint - IREN Limited (IREN) experienced a significant increase of approximately 308% in FY25, with expectations for even stronger performance in FY26 [1] Company Performance - The stock has shown remarkable outperformance, indicating strong momentum in its market position [1] Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a retired Wall Street portfolio manager with over two decades of experience in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, emphasizing risk mitigation strategies through various market cycles [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Crypto Industry** and its outlook for **2026**, highlighting a **tokenization supercycle** that includes the tokenization of stablecoins, capital markets, and prediction markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2025 Performance**: Despite a weak Q4 in 2025, Bitcoin ended the year down 6%, while crypto equities had an average return of approximately **59%** [1]. 2. **Bitcoin Price Forecast**: The forecast for Bitcoin in 2026 is set at **$150K**, with a peak target of **$200K** in 2027, indicating a belief that the market has bottomed [1][8]. 3. **Stablecoin Growth**: Total stablecoin supply is expected to grow by **56% YoY** to **$420 billion** by 2026, driven by various factors including cross-border payments and fintech integration [2][47]. 4. **Tokenization of Real-World Assets**: The market for tokenized real-world assets is projected to increase from approximately **$37 billion** in 2025 to **$80 billion** in 2026, with equity tokenization expected to rise from **2%** to **16%** of total assets [3][47]. 5. **Prediction Markets**: The total volume for prediction markets is anticipated to double in 2026, reaching around **$70 billion**, with a significant portion of revenue expected from sports and political markets [4]. Company-Specific Insights Robinhood (HOOD) - **Management Strength**: HOOD is recognized for its effective management across equity, crypto, banking, and wealth management, with a strong distribution network of **14 million active traders** [12]. - **Prediction Markets Revenue**: Expected to contribute **9%** of total trading revenue by 2026, with HOOD building its own prediction markets exchange [15][77]. - **Tokenization Platform**: Plans to launch a full-scale equity tokenization platform, potentially impacting revenues significantly [15]. Coinbase (COIN) - **Business Transition**: COIN is transitioning to an 'everything exchange' model, expanding into tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and derivatives [16]. - **New Product Revenue**: New products are expected to drive **17%** of total trading revenues in 2026 [85]. - **Strategic Partnerships**: Partnerships with Circle are aimed at increasing USDC demand across various trading and payment platforms [16]. Circle (CRCL) - **Market Position**: Circle remains the largest regulated stablecoin provider in the U.S., with USDC growing by **73%** in 2025 to **$76 billion** [19][89]. - **Revenue Growth**: Despite concerns over interest rates, Circle's revenue and EBITDA have shown strong growth, maintaining pace with market demands [19]. Figure (FIGR) - **Loan Origination**: FIGR is expected to capture **5%** of U.S. HELOC origination by 2026, with strong momentum in tokenized consumer credit [26]. - **EBITDA Margin Expansion**: Projected EBITDA margins are expected to increase from **47%** in 2025 to **52%** in 2026 [26]. MicroStrategy (MSTR) - **Bitcoin Holdings**: MSTR holds approximately **674K BTC**, valued at around **$63 billion**, with a strong cash position to cover dividends [30]. - **Market Recovery**: MSTR is expected to benefit significantly from Bitcoin price appreciation, with a forecasted price of **$150K** in 2026 [31]. IREN - **AI Pivot**: IREN is focusing on building a vertically integrated AI business, with plans to set up **100K GPUs** over **350MW** of power [34]. - **Revenue Potential**: Expected to generate approximately **$2.5 billion** in annual recurring revenue by 2027 [39]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regulatory Catalysts**: Key regulatory changes, such as the SEC crypto innovation exemption and the CLARITY Act, are expected to provide legitimacy to crypto trading platforms and could significantly impact market dynamics [10][11]. - **Market Risks**: The potential launch of crypto trading by legacy brokers and the competitive landscape with new entrants like Binance.US could pose risks to existing players [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the crypto industry and key companies within it.

Core Viewpoint - Vertiv has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years, but smaller AI stocks like Iren may present better investment opportunities due to their higher growth potential [1][2]. Company Performance - Vertiv's stock has increased by 39% over the past year and over 550% in the last five years, driven by investor interest in its liquid cooling solutions for data centers [1]. - In Q3, Vertiv reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 29%, but guidance for Q4 suggests a slowdown with expected growth of 18% to 22% [6]. Comparison with Iren - Iren's stock price has more than quadrupled in the past year, indicating a strong growth trajectory, and it has a market cap of $12 billion compared to Vertiv's $67 billion [2][7]. - Iren is projected to generate $20 billion in annual recurring revenue within five to ten years, supported by a significant deal with Microsoft worth $9.7 billion [3][4]. Revenue Projections - Iren aims for $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026, up from $3.1 million in fiscal 2024 and $16.4 million in fiscal 2025 [4]. - Management has indicated expectations of reaching $200 million to $250 million in annual recurring revenue by December 2025, suggesting potential to exceed the $3.4 billion target [5]. Market Dynamics - The smaller market cap of Iren allows for potentially greater stock price movements, which could benefit investors seeking faster growth compared to Vertiv [7].

Group 1: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continues to rise, with China Ping An (02318) up 5.17%, New China Life (01336) up 4.14%, China Life (02628) up 4.83%, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 3.29%. The National Financial Regulatory Administration reported that the insurance industry achieved a total premium income of 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% for the first 11 months of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Hydrogen Energy - Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582) saw a rise of over 7.2% after announcing the delivery of a total of 424 sets of vehicle-mounted high-pressure hydrogen supply systems to clients, which will be used in fuel cell buses in Guangzhou [1]. Group 3: Coal Sector - Coal stocks collectively rose, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.33%, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 3.18%, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 2.31%. Since late November, port thermal coal prices have been on a downward trend, dropping from a high of 834 yuan/ton to a low of 670 yuan/ton, before rebounding on December 31, increasing by 8 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Solar Energy and AI - Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) increased by over 6.1% following a report from Guotai Junan that Elon Musk proposed a plan to deploy 100GW of solar AI satellites annually, driving demand for space photovoltaic technology [1]. Group 5: Lithium Mining - Lithium stocks were active, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.22% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 2.85%. After breaking through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark, lithium carbonate futures surged over 8%, reaching a high of 137,760 yuan/ton [2]. Group 6: Real Estate Sector - Domestic real estate stocks continued to rise, with Beike-W (02423) up 3.44%, Longfor Group (00960) up 5.24%, China Jinmao (00817) up 5.34%, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.64%. An article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to improve and stabilize expectations in the real estate market [2]. Group 7: Baby Products - Different Group (06090) rebounded by over 34.99%. According to a report from China Merchants Securities, the company is positioned as a mid-to-high-end baby products brand with strong product development and channel expansion capabilities, targeting middle-class and high-net-worth consumers [3]. Group 8: Mining Sector - Zijin Mining (02899) rose nearly 6%, reaching a historical high. The company recently announced an annual profit forecast of 51 to 52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 18.9 to 19.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year's profit of 32.051 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 59% to 62% [3]. Group 9: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 49,000 points, rising 1.3%, with major U.S. bank stocks reaching historical highs. Goldman Sachs (GS.US) rose 3.73%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) rose 2.63%, and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) rose 2.55%. The U.S. ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, below the expected 48.4 [4]. Group 10: Precious Metals - U.S. precious metal stocks collectively strengthened, with Hecla Mining (HL.US) up 4.56% and Barrick Gold (B.US) up 3.77%. Spot gold surged 2.5%, reclaiming the $4,400 mark, while spot silver rose 5%, surpassing $76 [4]. Group 11: AI and Technology - Datavault AI (DVLT.US) surged 42.57%, with a cumulative increase of 180% over three trading days after signing a procurement agreement with AP Global Holdings LLC for infrastructure and cybersecurity services [5]. Group 12: Bitcoin and Related Stocks - Bitcoin briefly reached the $93,000 mark, with related stocks rising, including Strategy (MSTR.US) up 4.81% and Coinbase (COIN.US) up 7.77% [6]. Group 13: Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw significant pre-market gains, with Chevron (CVX.US) up 5.1% and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) up 2.59%. Reports indicated that the U.S. had captured Venezuelan President Maduro through military action, leading to a strong performance in oil and gas services [7].

Core Insights - IREN Limited's expanding GPU footprint is significantly enhancing its revenue visibility and stock performance, driven by a multi-year AI Cloud contract with Microsoft [1][9] - The company plans to scale its GPU fleet from approximately 23,000 units to 140,000 by the end of 2026, targeting $3.4 billion in annualized AI Cloud revenues [2][9] - IREN's first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues showed substantial year-over-year growth, with improved adjusted EBITDA indicating operational leverage as AI workloads increase [3][9] - The global demand for AI compute, tight GPU supply, and power constraints in major data center markets are favorable for IREN's growth prospects [4] - Analysts project a 125.89% year-over-year revenue growth for fiscal 2026, with earnings estimates rising to 79 cents per share from 4 cents [4][14] Company Strategy and Performance - IREN's vertically integrated model, which includes ownership of power, data centers, and GPU infrastructure, minimizes execution risk and allows for faster commissioning compared to competitors [2] - The company has secured only about 16% of its 3 GW power portfolio for its GPU expansion, indicating significant growth potential [2] Competitive Landscape - Applied Digital is a notable competitor, operating purpose-built GPU data centers under long-term contracts, including an $11 billion deal with CoreWeave [5] - CoreWeave has rapidly scaled AI-native, GPU-optimized data centers and has secured multi-billion-dollar contracts with major companies like OpenAI and Microsoft, giving it a competitive edge [6] Market Performance - IREN's shares have increased by 151.9% over the past six months, outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector and the Zacks Financial Miscellaneous Services industry [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin mining companies that diversified into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) significantly outperformed traditional cryptocurrency miners in 2025 Group 1: Company Performance - IREN achieved a 285% return in 2025, leading the sector after signing a five-year agreement with Microsoft valued at approximately $9.7 billion for cloud computing services [2] - Cipher recorded a 218% increase following a 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services and a separate $3 billion deal with Fluidstack, totaling $5.5 billion for hosting AI workloads [3] - Hut 8 saw a 124% return after announcing a $7 billion partnership with Anthropic and Fluidstack to develop AI data centers, with potential total contract value reaching $17.7 billion [4] Group 2: Underperforming Companies - Marathon Digital (MARA) ended the year down 46%, with Rosenblatt Securities lowering its price target due to high exposure to bitcoin mining and declining profitability [5] - Bitdeer experienced the largest decline among major miners, with a 48% loss attributed to a class action lawsuit regarding its SEAL04 chip development timeline [6] Group 3: Mixed Sector Performance - Other miners showed varied performance: Terawulf returned 103%, Bitfarms gained 58%, CleanSpark ended with a 10% gain, and Core Scientific rose 4%, while Hive fell 9% and Cango dropped 32% [7]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，比特币一度站上9.3万美元关口。比特币概念股盘前普涨，截至发稿， Strategy(MSTR.US)、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨近4%，Robinhood(HOOD.US)、Circle(CRCL.US)涨超1.8%， Iren Ltd(IREN.US)涨超5.6%，Mara Holdings(MARA.US)涨超4.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $93,000 mark, leading to a pre-market surge in Bitcoin-related stocks [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin reached a peak of $93,000 [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Strategy (MSTR.US) and Coinbase (COIN.US) both increased by nearly 4% [1] - Robinhood (HOOD.US) and Circle (CRCL.US) saw gains of over 1.8% [1] - Iren Ltd (IREN.US) rose by more than 5.6% [1] - Mara Holdings (MARA.US) experienced an increase of over 4.5% [1]

Key Points Iren is well positioned to meet the power shortage for data centers. It signed a $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft recently. Iren has secured 3 gigawatts of power for its data center pipeline. 10 stocks we like better than Iren › Shares of Iren (NASDAQ: IREN) more than tripled in 2025. The Bitcoin miner, founded in 2018, is pursuing a massive opportunity by offering its data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) cloud services. Iren has secured thousands of megawatts of clean power ...

Core Insights - Retail investors have shown significant interest in five stocks this week, driven by retail hype, AI advancements, and corporate news [1] Group 1: Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) - Target was highlighted after activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management acquired a significant stake, which is seen as a potential catalyst for operational changes [5] - The stock is trading around $97 to $99 per share, with a 52-week range of $83.44 to $145.08, and has declined by 28.75% in 2025 and 7.30% in the last six months [6] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) - Retail investors are bullish on TSM ahead of its earnings release later this month [4] Group 3: Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) - GOOG is trading around $303 to $305 per share, with a 52-week range of $134.25 to $313.98, and has returned 50.75% in 2025 and 30.09% in the last six months [10] - The stock has shown strong performance driven by AI advancements, cloud growth, and progress in Waymo, outperforming its peers [10] Group 4: IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN) - IREN gained attention due to discussions about using Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant for cryptocurrency mining, which could impact U.S. bitcoin production [16] - The stock is trading around $36 to $38 per share, with a 52-week range of $5.12 to $76.87, and has risen 261.09% in 2025 [17] Group 5: Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) - MSTR announced the purchase of 1,229 Bitcoin for approximately $108.8 million, increasing its holdings to 672,497 BTC [17] - The stock is trading around $150 to $152 per share, with a 52-week range of $151.42 to $457.22, and has declined by 49.35% in 2025 [19] Group 6: Market Context - The retail focus has combined meme-driven narratives with earnings outlooks and corporate news, amidst negative market action in the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq [18]