Intesa Sanpaolo ( ISNPY ) continues to defy concerns that its current profitability is unsustainably high. After serving up a 20%-plus return on tangible equity in 2025, management thinks it can boost that to nearly 30% by the end of the decade—numbers that wouldI like to take a long term, buy-and-hold approach to investing, with a bias toward stocks that can sustainably post high quality earnings. Mostly found in the dividend and income section. Blog about various US/Canadian stocks at 'The Compound Invest ...

Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...

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Core Insights - Intesa Sanpaolo has launched its 2026–2029 Business Plan, focusing on existing businesses, prior investments, and a proven operational model [2] - The Plan aims for a sustainable Return on Equity (ROE) exceeding 20% and maintains a Zero-NPL profile, supported by a technology- and fee-driven business model [3] Business Strategy - The strategy emphasizes a fully integrated Wealth Management, Protection, and Advisory platform, expecting to gain 2.5 million new customers through enhanced digital offerings and advisory capabilities [4] - In Italy, the Business Plan includes the expansion of advisory networks, particularly the Global Advisors network, which aims to become the third-largest financial advisory network in the country [5] International Growth - The International Banks Division is identified as a key growth driver, with plans to replicate the successful Italian business model in international subsidiaries, aiming to establish a Fideuram-style advisory network with around 1,200 advisors by 2029 [6] New Strategic Initiatives - The introduction of isywealth Europe aims to leverage Intesa Sanpaolo's Wealth Management leadership and technology investments to challenge key European markets like France, Germany, and Spain [7] Financial Projections - By 2029, the Group targets net income exceeding €11.5 billion, with a ROE of 22% and a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) of 27%, while projecting a 3% CAGR in revenues [8] - The Group anticipates delivering approximately €50 billion in capital returns over the 2025–2029 period, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 75% and share buybacks constituting around 20% of total distributions [9] Technology and Sustainability - Technology plays a crucial role, with the rollout of isytech, a cloud-native platform, aiming for 100% cloud operation by 2029, and the integration of Artificial Intelligence to enhance productivity and risk management [10] - The Business Plan is expected to contribute about €500 billion to the real economy, including over €370 billion in new medium/long-term lending, with 30% allocated to sustainable financing [11]

Core Viewpoint - Intesa Sanpaolo aims to increase its net income to approximately 10 billion euros (around $12 billion) by 2026 after surpassing profit expectations in the fourth quarter, despite allocating funds to reduce impaired debts and workforce [1] Financial Performance - The bank reported a strong performance in the fourth quarter, exceeding profit forecasts [1] - The projected net income of 10 billion euros in 2026 indicates a significant growth strategy [1] Strategic Actions - Intesa Sanpaolo has set aside cash to address impaired debts, indicating a proactive approach to financial health [1] - The decision to allocate resources for staff reduction suggests a focus on operational efficiency [1]

Core Insights - The article revisits Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) and IITSF after several quarters without dedicated follow-up, indicating a renewed interest in the company and its performance within the EU banking sector [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Intesa Sanpaolo is highlighted as a significant player in the EU banking sector, with 2025 being noted as a standout year for earnings within this industry [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The article emphasizes the importance of fundamental, income-oriented, long-term analysis conducted by buy-side hedge professionals across developed markets globally, suggesting a strategic approach to investment in the banking sector [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses an important development regarding Italy's largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY, OTCPK:IITSF) and emphasizes the need for timely updates on its coverage [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The focus is on long-term investment strategies in U.S. and European equities, particularly undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers [1] - Sustained profitability, characterized by strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital, is highlighted as a more reliable driver of returns than valuation alone [1] Group 2: Personal Investment Approach - The investment approach is influenced by a diverse academic background in Economics, Classical Philology, Philosophy, and Theology, which enhances both quantitative analysis and market narrative interpretation [1] - The goal of investment is to ensure financial freedom for the investor and their family, allowing for the ability to work in fulfilling environments rather than seeking to escape work altogether [1]

Core Insights - Intesa Sanpaolo's IMI Corporate & Investment Banking Division has facilitated approximately $50 billion in US transactions over the past three years, indicating robust growth in project finance and capital markets activity [2][4]. Market Performance - From January to August 2025, global project finance volumes surpassed €200 billion, with IMI CIB participating in over €30 billion, accounting for around 15% of global volumes [4]. - Between 2018 and 2024, US project finance volumes grew approximately 20% annually, while IMI CIB's activity increased nearly 34% per year [4]. Key Transactions - Notable transactions include: - AT&T (2025): Joint Lead Manager and Active Bookrunner for a €2.75 billion bond issuance [5]. - Bighorn Project (2024): Participation in a $3.4 billion financing for a 300 MW hyperscale data center in Reno, Nevada [5]. - Cider Project (2024): Structured and partially underwrote a $870 million long-term loan for New York's largest solar PV park [5]. - SunZia (2023): Structured and partially underwrote an $8.8 billion green credit facility for a major green energy infrastructure project [5]. - CEMEX SAB de CV (2023): Involved in a $1 billion hybrid green bond issuance [5]. - JFK New Terminal One (2022): Organized and underwrote a $6.63 billion financing for New York's New Terminal One [5]. Americas Operations - IMI CIB operates in the Americas with a significant presence in New York, employing over 200 professionals and serving as the operational hub [6]. - The division supports over 150 global corporate groups, including US Fortune 500 companies and major Latin American firms, as well as around 50 financial institutions [7]. Strategic Positioning - Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp. connects US investors with European financial assets, enhancing ties between Italian corporates and US investors [8]. - The division is recognized as a strategic bridge between Europe and the United States, supporting growth-oriented investments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Fitch has upgraded Intesa Sanpaolo's credit rating by two notches to A-, marking the first time the Group is rated above Italy's sovereign rating, indicating its exceptional strength in the banking sector [2][3]. Group 1: Credit Rating Upgrade - The Long-Term Issuer Default Rating was lifted from BBB to A- and the Viability Rating from bbb to a- [2]. - This upgrade signifies that Intesa Sanpaolo is recognized as a strong performer relative to its domestic peers and European banks [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Profitability - Fitch highlights Intesa Sanpaolo's diversified business model, strong profitability, and capital flexibility as key strengths [3]. - The bank is expected to maintain profitability above the average of large European banks in the coming years [3]. Group 3: Resilience and Market Position - Intesa Sanpaolo is viewed as a safe haven during sovereign stress, with resilient performance anticipated even as interest rates decline [3]. - The bank's dominant domestic franchise and diversified products are expected to mitigate pressures during severe stress on the Italian sovereign [3]. Group 4: Management and Strategy - The upgrade reflects the strength of management's execution and the constructive dialogue maintained with Fitch over the past year [3]. - It serves as a validation of Intesa Sanpaolo's strategy focused on resilience, profitability, and diversification, positioning it among Europe's top-tier banks while ensuring strong shareholder returns [3].

Core Insights - Intesa Sanpaolo reported strong results for the second quarter, showcasing resilience in earnings despite lower interest rates in the Eurozone [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved earnings of €2.6 billion for the second quarter, indicating robust financial health [1]