Core Viewpoint - Retail traders are heavily investing in EVTOL stocks, particularly Joby Aviation and Archer, despite Goldman Sachs expressing concerns about overhype in the flying car market [1][2][3] EVTOL Market Performance - EVTOL stocks have shown volatility in 2026, with Joby stock increasing by 70% year-to-date, while Archer has decreased by 22%. Other competitors, BETA Technologies and Eve Holding, have also seen declines of 16% and 13% respectively [2] - High retail investor participation is identified as a significant factor contributing to the volatility of these stocks [2] Retail Participation and Analyst Ratings - Retail participation in Joby and Archer is more than double that of the S&P 500, indicating strong retail interest [3] - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating for Joby, despite its strong performance this year, and has a "Buy" rating for BETA Technologies, citing it as the best-positioned company in the sector [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Joby is noted for having the most flight hours and a comprehensive business model, but faces regulatory hurdles and high capital requirements [4] - Archer is viewed cautiously due to its lack of vertical integration, which may lead to lower margins, despite its rapid progress [5][6] - Eve Holdings is considered to be lagging behind its competitors, receiving a Neutral rating from analysts [5] Market Sentiment - Retail traders appear to favor Archer over Joby, despite Joby's better stock performance, as indicated by Stocktwits data from 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has entered the eVTOL industry stock rating business, giving a "buy" rating to BETA Technologies, a "neutral" rating to Archer Aviation and Eve Holding, and a "sell" rating to Joby Aviation [1][2] Group 1: BETA Technologies - BETA Technologies is rated "buy" due to its phased certification process through CTOL aircraft, which allows for early revenue generation and accelerates the learning curve without affecting the eVTOL timeline [1] - The company operates as both an aircraft manufacturer (OEM) and a parts supplier, representing an attractive business model in the aviation industry [1] - BETA has partnered with General Electric (GE) to develop a hybrid aircraft for defense and is collaborating with competitors to sell motors and chargers, aiding in scaling [2] Group 2: Joby Aviation - Joby Aviation is rated "sell" as it is the oldest company in the field with the most flight hours and leads in certification [2] - The company aims to be a one-stop service provider covering manufacturing, supply, and operations, which presents the largest market opportunity but faces regulatory hurdles and significant capital demands [2] - The current stock price is considered to have a significant premium, which is viewed as unreasonable [2] Group 3: Archer Aviation - Archer Aviation receives a "neutral" rating, with its outsourcing approach accelerating the certification process despite being established later than competitors [2] - The size of its aircraft may indicate strong performance, but the lack of vertical integration suggests lower aftermarket profits and margins [2] - The partnership with Anduril could lead to a top defense product, but the lack of funding visibility makes it difficult to assess its value [2] Group 4: Eve Holding - Eve Holding is rated "neutral," with its parent company Embraer's control providing attractive labor, facilities, and aerospace expertise [2] - However, this structure results in slower development and fewer flight hours [2] - The company is expected to compete in the market eventually, but it is relatively behind in certification [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated stock ratings in the eVTOL industry, providing a "Buy" rating for BETA Technologies, "Neutral" ratings for Archer Aviation and Eve Holding, and a "Sell" rating for Joby Aviation [1][2] Group 1: BETA Technologies - BETA Technologies is rated "Buy" due to its phased certification process through CTOL aircraft, which allows for early revenue generation and accelerated learning without affecting the eVTOL timeline [1] - The company operates as both an aircraft manufacturer (OEM) and a parts supplier, representing an attractive business model in the aviation industry [1] - BETA has partnered with General Electric (GE) to develop a hybrid aircraft for defense and is collaborating with competitors to sell motors and chargers, aiding in scaling [2] Group 2: Joby Aviation - Joby Aviation is rated "Sell" as it is the oldest company in the sector with the most flight hours and leads in certification [2] - The company aims to be a one-stop service provider covering manufacturing, supply, and operations, which presents the largest market opportunity [2] - However, Joby faces regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements, and its current stock price is considered to be at a significant premium, which is deemed unreasonable [2] Group 3: Archer Aviation - Archer Aviation receives a "Neutral" rating, with its outsourcing approach accelerating certification despite being younger than competitors [2] - The size of its aircraft may indicate strong performance, but the lack of vertical integration suggests lower aftermarket profits and margins [2] - Archer's partnership with Anduril could lead to a top defense product, but the lack of funding visibility makes it difficult to assess its value [2] Group 4: Eve Holding - Eve Holding is rated "Neutral," with its parent company Embraer's control providing attractive labor, facilities, and aerospace expertise [2] - This structure, however, results in slower development and fewer flight hours [2] - The company is expected to compete in the market eventually, but it is currently lagging in certification [2]

A key reason for Goldman's rating is the aircraft maker's high valuation, given the uncertainty of the industry. But investors see potential. ...

Core Insights - Joby Aviation has seen its stock price increase over 70% this year, with the potential for significant growth as it aims to obtain FAA-type certification in 2026, marking the beginning of a decade of expansion in urban air travel [1][3] Company Overview - Joby Aviation is an aircraft start-up focused on alleviating urban traffic congestion by using electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to transport passengers over city roads and highways [1][2] - The company's aircraft are designed to be electric, relatively quiet, and utilize a combination of fixed wings and propellers for flight, distinguishing them from traditional helicopters [2] Competitive Position - Joby Aviation is nearing the completion of the FAA-type certification process, positioning itself as a potential first-mover in the eVTOL market, which could provide a significant competitive advantage over rivals like Archer Aviation [4] Financial Metrics - As of the latest data, Joby Aviation has a market capitalization of $13 billion, with a current stock price of $14.43 [5][6] - The company ended the third quarter with approximately $978 million in cash and equivalents, which is expected to sustain its research and development efforts for the next couple of years [7] Strategic Partnerships - Joby has partnered with Nvidia, which selected the company as a launch partner for its IGX Thor computer platform, aimed at enhancing the safety and reliability of Joby's aircraft through real-time data processing from onboard sensors [6]

Core Insights - The recent sell-off of electric air taxi companies presents a potential entry point for long-term investors despite skepticism surrounding the industry [1][2] Company Summaries Joby Aviation - Joby Aviation is leading in the eVTOL market and is in the final stage of FAA certification, with expectations for commercial operations by 2026 [3][4] - The stock has decreased approximately 35% from its 52-week high of nearly $21, resulting in a market capitalization of around $12.8 billion [4][6] - Joby has completed over 600 flights this year and announced a $250 million aircraft sale in Kazakhstan, indicating growing international demand [7] Archer Aviation - Archer Aviation focuses on selling aircraft to operators and building infrastructure for urban air mobility, with its stock down roughly 34% recently [8][11] - The company acquired Hawthorne Airport for $126 million, positioning itself strategically for the upcoming 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles [9] - Archer has over $2 billion in liquidity and has secured partnerships with Stellantis and United Airlines, enhancing its long-term prospects [11] Market Outlook - Wall Street remains optimistic, with a consensus price target of around $12.4 for the companies, suggesting a potential 70% upside from current levels [12] - The eVTOL industry is expected to grow into a multibillion-dollar market by the end of the decade, with both companies having the necessary partnerships and technology to lead [14]

Group 1 - Joby Aviation is an eVTOL aircraft start-up that is currently in the final stage of FAA certification and aims to begin commercial operations next year [3][4] - The company is burning through $500 million in free cash flow annually and will require time to scale up to its current $12 billion valuation [4] - Joby has secured significant partnerships, including with Uber, Nvidia, and Toyota, but these collaborations have not yet resulted in commercial operations [5] Group 2 - Joby Aviation represents a long-term investment in autonomous technology, with partnerships that enhance its credibility and financial backing [6][7] - Uber envisions using autonomous eVTOLs to supplement its delivery services and potentially replace its existing fleets [6] - Nvidia's IGX Thor platform supports Joby's ambitions in autonomous aviation, providing a competitive edge in the advanced AI semiconductor market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Joby Aviation has filed a lawsuit against Archer Aviation for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to business strategies, partnership terms, and aircraft specifications [1][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - Joby claims that Archer hired George Kivork, a former employee, who took confidential information to Archer [1][4]. - The lawsuit alleges that Kivork misused Joby's trade secrets in an attempt to undercut Joby's contract with a real estate developer [4]. - Joby discovered through a forensic investigation that Kivork sent numerous files to a personal email and altered security permissions for access after leaving the company [5]. Group 2: Archer's Response - Archer's legal officer stated that the company did not use Joby's trade secrets and that Kivork did not bring any confidential information to Archer [2]. - Archer claims that Joby's lawsuit is an attempt to achieve through litigation what they cannot accomplish through fair competition [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - Joby and Archer are part of the electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft sector, which is focused on developing faster and more sustainable urban transportation solutions [3]. - Joby is backed by Toyota and plans to integrate helicopter and seaplane services into Uber's ridesharing app as early as next year [3].

Core Insights - Joby Aviation has successfully completed the first flight of its long-range VTOL air taxi using a turbine-electric engine, enhancing range and payload capacity through its hybrid turbine powertrain and proprietary autonomy software [1][2] Group 1: Aircraft Development - The aircraft features a hybrid design that allows for deployment from forward locations without the need for runway infrastructure, developed in partnership with L3Harris Technology [2] - Joby Aviation's SuperPilot autonomous stack is designed to extend the aircraft's range while increasing its payload capacity [1] Group 2: Military Applications - The partnership with L3Harris aims to tailor the aircraft for government missions, focusing on contested logistics, low-altitude support, and loyal wingman tasks [3] - The U.S. government has requested over $9 billion in the fiscal 2026 budget for next-generation platforms, aligning with the development of resilient, autonomous, and hybrid aircraft [3] Group 3: Technological Capabilities - The aircraft incorporates real-time sensor fusion (radar, LiDAR, vision) and autonomous mission management, allowing for planning and adapting to changes such as weather and air traffic [4] - It demonstrates long-range autonomy with flights over thousands of miles and includes health monitoring and resilience features like predictive system health modeling [4]

Core Insights - Joby Aviation has experienced a significant increase of over 70% in 2025, indicating strong investor interest in the eVTOL market [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the emerging eVTOL sector, with its electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft offering a potential solution to urban traffic congestion [2] Company Overview - Joby Aviation is currently a pre-revenue company without regulatory approval for commercial flights or a fleet of eVTOLs, making its current status more of a leader in concept rather than in revenue generation [3] - The company has made notable progress towards commercialization, including completing its first flight between two airports and demonstrating flights at a California airshow [4] Regulatory Progress - Joby Aviation is in the final stage of certification, with expectations for flight testing by its pilots to commence later this year and "for credit" testing to begin in 2026 [6] - The successful completion of flight demonstrations is crucial for proving the safety of its aircraft to the FAA, which is necessary for obtaining regulatory approval [5] Market Position - The current market capitalization of Joby Aviation stands at $12 billion, with a stock price of $13.07, reflecting investor confidence despite the lack of revenue [5] - The company’s gross margin is reported at -11490.90%, indicating significant costs relative to revenue, which is expected for a pre-revenue startup [5]