Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Kinder Morgan (KMI), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage firms and retail investors [1][10]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Kinder Morgan has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a "Buy" based on recommendations from 19 brokerage firms, with 9 "Strong Buy" and 1 "Buy" [2][5]. - Strong Buy and Buy recommendations account for 47.4% and 5.3% of all recommendations, respectively [2]. Analysis of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations may not effectively guide investors in selecting stocks with the best price increase potential [5]. - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. - The interests of brokerage firms may not align with those of retail investors, leading to a lack of insight into future stock price movements [7]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, showing a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - Unlike ABR, Zacks Rank is a quantitative model and is updated more frequently, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates [9][12]. Current Earnings Estimates for Kinder Morgan - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinder Morgan's current year earnings remains unchanged at $1.26, suggesting steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - The Zacks Rank for Kinder Morgan is 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

KMI's Strategy and Outlook - Hydrocarbon fuels are essential and resilient, with global energy needs expected to expand 30% between 2016 and 2040[15] - Kinder Morgan transports approximately 40% of all natural gas consumed in the U S[46, 49] - KMI aims to increase dividends declared by 60% to $0 80 per share in 2018, maintaining a best-in-class coverage of 2 6x[59] - KMI plans to place $3 2 billion of growth projects into commercial service during 2018, with an investment multiple of approximately 7 0x[59] Financial Performance and Projections - KMI's 2018 budgeted EBITDA is $7 5 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year[59] - KMI's 5-year growth project backlog is expected to generate approximately $1 6 billion of cumulative EBITDA[61] - KMI's 2018 budgeted Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is $4 567 billion, or $2 05 per share, a 2% and 3% increase respectively[238, 276] - KMI's 2018 budgeted growth capital is $2 215 billion, a 26% decrease from the previous year[238, 276] - KMI's 2018 budgeted discretionary free cash flow is $568 million[238] KML and TMEP - KML's 2018 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is C$474 million, a 22% increase from the previous year[210, 323] - The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) is estimated to cost C$7 4 billion and could grow Adjusted EBITDA by C$1 1 billion[222, 216]

Energy Market Outlook - Global energy demand is projected to steadily grow, driven by developing economies like India (32% of incremental demand from 2017 to 2040), China (26%), and Africa (15%) [9, 12] - The U S is the largest oil and gas producer, with production up 23% and 29% respectively in 2017 compared to 2000 and 2010 [16, 17] - U S oil and natural gas production is expected to grow by approximately 33% from 2017 to 2025 [22] Kinder Morgan's Asset and Financial Highlights - Kinder Morgan transports approximately 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U S [26, 39] - The company's 2019 budgeted Segment EBDA is approximately $84 billion, with natural gas pipelines contributing 61%, products pipelines 15%, terminals 14%, CO2 oil production 6%, and CO2 S&T 4% [25] - Kinder Morgan anticipates $5 billion of distributable cash flow (DCF) in 2019, allocating approximately $2 billion for dividends and $3 billion to enhance shareholder value [30] - Approximately 96% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted segment cash flow is from take-or-pay and other fee-based contracts or hedged [33] Growth and Capital Allocation - Kinder Morgan has $61 billion of commercially secured capital projects underway, with $43 billion specifically for natural gas projects [44] - The company's capital allocation priorities include maintaining a strong balance sheet with a target Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 45x, dividend growth, and share repurchases [37, 38] - U S natural gas production is projected to grow by over 30 Bcfd, or approximately 37%, through 2030, driven by key basins [39] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $78 billion, and distributable cash flow (DCF) is $50 billion [73] - The company's 2019 dividend is targeted at $100 per share, with a planned increase to $125 per share in 2020 [38] - Approximately 69% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted net revenue is generated by end-users [87]

Energy Market Overview - Global energy demand is expected to grow steadily, driven by population growth, urbanization, and economic development, with developing economies like India (32%), China (26%), Africa (15%), and Southeast Asia (15%) leading the increase from 2017 to 2040[9] - The U S is the largest oil and gas producer globally, with production expected to grow by approximately 33% by 2025, positioning it as a key trade partner[11, 15] - By 2025, the U S is projected to supply over 50% of the expected global supply increase and produce nearly 1 out of every 5 barrels of oil and 1 out of every 4 cubic meters of natural gas worldwide[15] Kinder Morgan's Business and Financial Highlights - Kinder Morgan is a leader in energy infrastructure, operating approximately 70,000 miles of natural gas pipelines and transporting about 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U S [20, 49] - The company anticipates approximately $5 billion in distributable cash flow (DCF) for 2019, allocating around $2 billion for dividends and $3 billion for enhancing shareholder value[21] - Kinder Morgan has a market capitalization exceeding $40 billion and boasts investment-grade rated debt, with recent upgrades to BBB / Baa2 by S&P and Moody's[24] - The company offers a current dividend yield of 5% based on a $20 share price, with a planned 25% dividend growth in both 2019 ($1 00/share) and 2020 ($1 25/share)[24, 30] - Kinder Morgan has repurchased approximately $525 million of its shares since December 2017 as part of a $2 billion share buyback program[24] Growth and Capital Projects - The company has $6 1 billion of commercially secured capital projects underway, primarily focused on natural gas opportunities[36] - U S natural gas production is projected to grow by over 30 Bcfd, nearly 40%, by 2030, with over 70% of the forecasted demand growth concentrated in Texas and Louisiana[33, 34] - Kinder Morgan is investing in Permian takeaway projects, including GCX and PHP, with a combined capacity of 4 1 Bcfd, and is in discussions for a potential third pipeline[40, 42] - The company's network is contracted for over 5 7 Bcfd of transport capacity to U S liquefaction facilities under 19-year average term contracts, with approximately $1 billion invested in transportation infrastructure to support LNG exports[49] Financial Performance and Stability - Approximately 90% of Kinder Morgan's earnings are underpinned by take-or-pay or fee-based contracts, ensuring stable cash flows[65] - The company projects approximately $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2019[66] - Kinder Morgan has a long-term target net debt / adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 4 5x, which was reached as of March 31, 2019[30]

Financial Performance and Guidance - The company's 2021 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $6.8 billion, a decrease of approximately 2% compared to the 2020 forecast, reflecting headwinds from lower re-contracting rates and crude volumes[15] - 2021 Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is budgeted at $4.4 billion, down approximately 3% from the 2020 forecast, also impacted by higher anticipated sustaining capex[15] - Net income for 2021 is projected to be greater than $2.1 billion, an increase primarily due to asset and goodwill impairments taken during 2020[15] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program, with $575 million already purchased since December 2017[13] - The company maintains a current dividend yield of over 7%, with a Q3 2020 annualized dividend of $1.05 per share[14] Business Overview and Strategy - The company moves approximately 40% of U S natural gas consumption and exports[9] - Approximately 74% of the company's earnings are from take-or-pay or hedged contracts, providing stable cash flows[37, 48] - The company has commercially-secured capital projects underway totaling $2.6 billion as of September 30, 2020[23] - The company's business mix includes 62% natural gas, 15% products, 14% terminals, 6% CO2, and 3% oil & gas production[11] Market and Industry Trends - U S natural gas demand is expected to grow, with over 85% of the forecasted demand growth driven by Texas and Louisiana[18] - Global biofuels demand is expected to increase by approximately 146% from 2019 to 2040[46]

Acquisitions and Divestitures - Kinder Morgan acquired Northeast Transport & Storage Assets for $1225 million[8], with ~41 bcf of FERC-certificated storage capacity and ~3 bcfd of aggregate transportation pipeline capacity[11] - The company acquired Kinetrex Energy for $310 million[12], which includes 1 operational landfill-RNG facility with ~04 bcf capacity and expects 3 landfill-RNG facilities operational by 2022 end with total capacity of 35 bcf[17] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's 2021 forecast EBITDA is $79 billion[23] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program with over $14 billion of program capacity remaining[23] - The company's 2021 expected Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA is 40x[25] Market Position and Strategy - The company moves ~40% of US natural gas consumption & exports[19] - The company's stable cash flows are with ~72% take-or-pay or hedged earnings[26],[79] - The company has a $13 billion project backlog with ~64% allocated to natural gas projects[25],[83] Energy Transition and Renewables - The company's CO2 transport capacity is ~15 bcfd with ~1500 miles of CO2 pipelines[18] - The company handled nearly 260 mbbld of ethanol, biodiesel, & renewable diesel in 2020[69]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas Production and Pipeline industry is essential for meeting global energy demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption in emerging markets [1] - Despite the shift toward renewables, hydrocarbons remain crucial for transportation, heating, and petrochemical production [1] - Technological advancements like horizontal drilling and enhanced recovery techniques are unlocking new reserves and boosting productivity [1] Pipeline Infrastructure - Pipeline infrastructure is critical for transporting crude oil, natural gas, and refined products efficiently [2] - Stable, fee-based revenue models and long-term contracts provide predictable cash flows for pipeline operators, insulating them from commodity price volatility [2] - The expansion of North American shale production and rising export capacity is expected to increase demand for midstream infrastructure [2] Company Comparisons - Energy Transfer (ET) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are two of the largest midstream energy companies in North America, operating extensive networks of pipelines and storage facilities [3] - ET offers a diversified midstream infrastructure with stable cash flows and strategic export terminal access, positioning it well for rising U.S. energy production and global demand [4] - KMI has a primarily natural gas-focused midstream network with long-term contracts that provide predictable cash flows, appealing to income-focused investors [5] Earnings Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET's earnings per share (EPS) in 2025 and 2026 has increased by 2.86% and 4.26%, respectively [7] - KMI's 2025 EPS estimate has declined by 0.8%, while its 2026 EPS moved up by 2.26% [9] Dividend Yield - ET offers a dividend yield of 7.2%, significantly higher than KMI's 4.04% and the S&P 500's average of 1.58% [8][12] Valuation Metrics - ET is trading at a forward P/E of 12.54X, which is cheaper than KMI's 22.08X and the S&P 500's 22.43X [8][15] - ET's current return on equity (ROE) is 11.47%, while KMI's ROE is 16.6%, both underperforming the S&P 500's ROE of 17.02% [10] Debt to Capital - ET's debt-to-capital ratio is 56.6%, compared to KMI's 48.42%, both higher than the S&P 500's 38.07% [14] Price Performance - ET's units have gained 4.2% in the past month, outperforming KMI's 1.2% gain and the S&P 500's return of 4.4% [16] Conclusion - Energy Transfer is currently favored over Kinder Morgan due to rising earnings estimates, higher dividend yield, better return on equity, and cheaper valuation [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend-paying stocks are generally considered lower-risk investments compared to non-payers, as they generate sufficient cash to fund growth and return excess to shareholders through dividends [1] Group 1: Black Hills (BKH) - Black Hills operates as a regulated utility with a monopoly on natural gas distribution and electricity in several states, benefiting from government regulation [5][6] - The company has a growing customer base, expanding at twice the rate of the U.S. population, and has a history of increasing dividends for over five decades, achieving Dividend King status [7] - Expected earnings growth of 4% to 6% and a dividend yield of 4.8% make Black Hills an attractive investment opportunity [8] Group 2: Kinder Morgan (KMI) - Kinder Morgan is one of the largest energy infrastructure platforms in the U.S., with stable cash flows supported by take-or-pay contracts that account for 64% of annual cash flows [9][10] - The company anticipates cash flow growth to $5.9 billion this year, sufficient to cover its $2.6 billion dividend outlay and fund capital expenditures with excess free cash flow [11][12] - With $8.8 billion in growth capital projects, primarily in natural gas pipelines, Kinder Morgan has a strong foundation for future dividend increases, having raised its payout for eight consecutive years [13] Group 3: American States Water (AWR) - American States Water is a major water utility serving 1 million consumers across nine states, with a long history of dividend payments since 1931 and 70 consecutive years of increases, making it a top Dividend King [15] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in dividend growth over the past five years and aims for over 7% in the long term, supported by planned capital expenditures [16] - The stable cash flows and growth potential position American States Water as one of the safest and most reliable dividend stocks available, with a current yield of 2.4% [17]

Group 1: Oil Industry Insights - Crude oil prices have rallied to one-year highs, but futures indicate lower prices are likely ahead, suggesting temporary disruptions at worst [3] - Kinder Morgan (KMI) offers a 4.2% yield, funding its dividend through tolls on its extensive pipeline network, which transports crude oil and natural gas [6][7] - Kinder Morgan controls 40% of US natural gas flows, allowing for regular price increases and dividend boosts [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Energy Dividends - Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) provides an 8% dividend yield by consolidating MLPs into a single fund, simplifying tax reporting for investors [9] - The fund has raised its dividend for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [10] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The US dollar has depreciated 28% against gold year-to-date, signaling a shift towards assets that are less affected by central bank policies [11] - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) serves as a straightforward investment in gold, benefiting from lower energy costs as a primary input for gold miners [12] - GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (GGN) trades at a 2% discount to its net asset value and offers an 8% annualized dividend, providing income stability with potential upside [13]

Core Insights - Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) are midstream energy companies that are less affected by commodity price volatility due to their business models [2] - Over the past year, ENB's stock has increased by 35.7%, while KMI's stock surged by 51.5%, indicating KMI's stronger short-term performance [3] - A deeper analysis of the underlying business fundamentals and long-term outlook is necessary to assess the investment potential of both companies [3] Enbridge Inc. (ENB) - ENB generates 98% of its EBITDA from regulated or take-or-pay contracts, providing strong cash flow stability [5][6] - More than 80% of ENB's profits are inflation-adjusted, which supports earnings and dividends in high-cost environments [6] - ENB has a history of increasing dividends for 30 consecutive years, positioning it as a dividend aristocrat in the energy sector [9] - The company anticipates approximately 5% annual business growth through 2030, indicating a solid long-term outlook [10] - ENB is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 15.05x, reflecting a premium over KMI's 14.54x [12] Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) - KMI generates nearly two-thirds of its EBITDA from long-term take-or-pay contracts, ensuring steady cash flows [8] - KMI follows a more conservative dividend policy, having raised its dividend by nearly 2% in the first quarter of the year, but its previous dividend cut in 2015 remains a concern for income-focused investors [11] - KMI is also rated 3 (Hold) by Zacks, indicating stable fee-based revenues but less favorable compared to ENB [13][16]