Financial Performance and Guidance - The company's 2021 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $6.8 billion, a decrease of approximately 2% compared to the 2020 forecast, reflecting headwinds from lower re-contracting rates and crude volumes[15] - 2021 Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is budgeted at $4.4 billion, down approximately 3% from the 2020 forecast, also impacted by higher anticipated sustaining capex[15] - Net income for 2021 is projected to be greater than $2.1 billion, an increase primarily due to asset and goodwill impairments taken during 2020[15] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program, with $575 million already purchased since December 2017[13] - The company maintains a current dividend yield of over 7%, with a Q3 2020 annualized dividend of $1.05 per share[14] Business Overview and Strategy - The company moves approximately 40% of U S natural gas consumption and exports[9] - Approximately 74% of the company's earnings are from take-or-pay or hedged contracts, providing stable cash flows[37, 48] - The company has commercially-secured capital projects underway totaling $2.6 billion as of September 30, 2020[23] - The company's business mix includes 62% natural gas, 15% products, 14% terminals, 6% CO2, and 3% oil & gas production[11] Market and Industry Trends - U S natural gas demand is expected to grow, with over 85% of the forecasted demand growth driven by Texas and Louisiana[18] - Global biofuels demand is expected to increase by approximately 146% from 2019 to 2040[46]

Acquisitions and Divestitures - Kinder Morgan acquired Northeast Transport & Storage Assets for $1225 million[8], with ~41 bcf of FERC-certificated storage capacity and ~3 bcfd of aggregate transportation pipeline capacity[11] - The company acquired Kinetrex Energy for $310 million[12], which includes 1 operational landfill-RNG facility with ~04 bcf capacity and expects 3 landfill-RNG facilities operational by 2022 end with total capacity of 35 bcf[17] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's 2021 forecast EBITDA is $79 billion[23] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program with over $14 billion of program capacity remaining[23] - The company's 2021 expected Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA is 40x[25] Market Position and Strategy - The company moves ~40% of US natural gas consumption & exports[19] - The company's stable cash flows are with ~72% take-or-pay or hedged earnings[26],[79] - The company has a $13 billion project backlog with ~64% allocated to natural gas projects[25],[83] Energy Transition and Renewables - The company's CO2 transport capacity is ~15 bcfd with ~1500 miles of CO2 pipelines[18] - The company handled nearly 260 mbbld of ethanol, biodiesel, & renewable diesel in 2020[69]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas Production and Pipeline industry is essential for meeting global energy demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption in emerging markets [1] - Despite the shift toward renewables, hydrocarbons remain crucial for transportation, heating, and petrochemical production [1] - Technological advancements like horizontal drilling and enhanced recovery techniques are unlocking new reserves and boosting productivity [1] Pipeline Infrastructure - Pipeline infrastructure is critical for transporting crude oil, natural gas, and refined products efficiently [2] - Stable, fee-based revenue models and long-term contracts provide predictable cash flows for pipeline operators, insulating them from commodity price volatility [2] - The expansion of North American shale production and rising export capacity is expected to increase demand for midstream infrastructure [2] Company Comparisons - Energy Transfer (ET) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are two of the largest midstream energy companies in North America, operating extensive networks of pipelines and storage facilities [3] - ET offers a diversified midstream infrastructure with stable cash flows and strategic export terminal access, positioning it well for rising U.S. energy production and global demand [4] - KMI has a primarily natural gas-focused midstream network with long-term contracts that provide predictable cash flows, appealing to income-focused investors [5] Earnings Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET's earnings per share (EPS) in 2025 and 2026 has increased by 2.86% and 4.26%, respectively [7] - KMI's 2025 EPS estimate has declined by 0.8%, while its 2026 EPS moved up by 2.26% [9] Dividend Yield - ET offers a dividend yield of 7.2%, significantly higher than KMI's 4.04% and the S&P 500's average of 1.58% [8][12] Valuation Metrics - ET is trading at a forward P/E of 12.54X, which is cheaper than KMI's 22.08X and the S&P 500's 22.43X [8][15] - ET's current return on equity (ROE) is 11.47%, while KMI's ROE is 16.6%, both underperforming the S&P 500's ROE of 17.02% [10] Debt to Capital - ET's debt-to-capital ratio is 56.6%, compared to KMI's 48.42%, both higher than the S&P 500's 38.07% [14] Price Performance - ET's units have gained 4.2% in the past month, outperforming KMI's 1.2% gain and the S&P 500's return of 4.4% [16] Conclusion - Energy Transfer is currently favored over Kinder Morgan due to rising earnings estimates, higher dividend yield, better return on equity, and cheaper valuation [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend-paying stocks are generally considered lower-risk investments compared to non-payers, as they generate sufficient cash to fund growth and return excess to shareholders through dividends [1] Group 1: Black Hills (BKH) - Black Hills operates as a regulated utility with a monopoly on natural gas distribution and electricity in several states, benefiting from government regulation [5][6] - The company has a growing customer base, expanding at twice the rate of the U.S. population, and has a history of increasing dividends for over five decades, achieving Dividend King status [7] - Expected earnings growth of 4% to 6% and a dividend yield of 4.8% make Black Hills an attractive investment opportunity [8] Group 2: Kinder Morgan (KMI) - Kinder Morgan is one of the largest energy infrastructure platforms in the U.S., with stable cash flows supported by take-or-pay contracts that account for 64% of annual cash flows [9][10] - The company anticipates cash flow growth to $5.9 billion this year, sufficient to cover its $2.6 billion dividend outlay and fund capital expenditures with excess free cash flow [11][12] - With $8.8 billion in growth capital projects, primarily in natural gas pipelines, Kinder Morgan has a strong foundation for future dividend increases, having raised its payout for eight consecutive years [13] Group 3: American States Water (AWR) - American States Water is a major water utility serving 1 million consumers across nine states, with a long history of dividend payments since 1931 and 70 consecutive years of increases, making it a top Dividend King [15] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in dividend growth over the past five years and aims for over 7% in the long term, supported by planned capital expenditures [16] - The stable cash flows and growth potential position American States Water as one of the safest and most reliable dividend stocks available, with a current yield of 2.4% [17]

Group 1: Oil Industry Insights - Crude oil prices have rallied to one-year highs, but futures indicate lower prices are likely ahead, suggesting temporary disruptions at worst [3] - Kinder Morgan (KMI) offers a 4.2% yield, funding its dividend through tolls on its extensive pipeline network, which transports crude oil and natural gas [6][7] - Kinder Morgan controls 40% of US natural gas flows, allowing for regular price increases and dividend boosts [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Energy Dividends - Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) provides an 8% dividend yield by consolidating MLPs into a single fund, simplifying tax reporting for investors [9] - The fund has raised its dividend for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [10] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The US dollar has depreciated 28% against gold year-to-date, signaling a shift towards assets that are less affected by central bank policies [11] - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) serves as a straightforward investment in gold, benefiting from lower energy costs as a primary input for gold miners [12] - GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (GGN) trades at a 2% discount to its net asset value and offers an 8% annualized dividend, providing income stability with potential upside [13]

Core Insights - Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) are midstream energy companies that are less affected by commodity price volatility due to their business models [2] - Over the past year, ENB's stock has increased by 35.7%, while KMI's stock surged by 51.5%, indicating KMI's stronger short-term performance [3] - A deeper analysis of the underlying business fundamentals and long-term outlook is necessary to assess the investment potential of both companies [3] Enbridge Inc. (ENB) - ENB generates 98% of its EBITDA from regulated or take-or-pay contracts, providing strong cash flow stability [5][6] - More than 80% of ENB's profits are inflation-adjusted, which supports earnings and dividends in high-cost environments [6] - ENB has a history of increasing dividends for 30 consecutive years, positioning it as a dividend aristocrat in the energy sector [9] - The company anticipates approximately 5% annual business growth through 2030, indicating a solid long-term outlook [10] - ENB is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 15.05x, reflecting a premium over KMI's 14.54x [12] Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) - KMI generates nearly two-thirds of its EBITDA from long-term take-or-pay contracts, ensuring steady cash flows [8] - KMI follows a more conservative dividend policy, having raised its dividend by nearly 2% in the first quarter of the year, but its previous dividend cut in 2015 remains a concern for income-focused investors [11] - KMI is also rated 3 (Hold) by Zacks, indicating stable fee-based revenues but less favorable compared to ENB [13][16]

Company Performance - Kinder Morgan (KMI) closed at $27.53, reflecting a -2.17% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.09% [1] - Over the past month, KMI shares gained 3.04%, lagging behind the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 5.47% and the S&P 500's gain of 7.21% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $0.27, representing an 8% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $3.88 billion, indicating an 8.69% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year [2] - Full-year estimates predict earnings of $1.26 per share and revenue of $16.52 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +9.57% and +9.37%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Kinder Morgan indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses these estimate changes, currently ranks Kinder Morgan at 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Kinder Morgan's Forward P/E ratio stands at 22.3, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 17.03 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 3.09, higher than the industry average PEG ratio of 2.57 [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 148, placing it in the bottom 40% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1: Oil Price Volatility - Crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, starting with WTI at $72 per barrel and Brent at $75, before dropping over 10% due to fears of a global recession, increased OPEC+ output, and weakening demand from China [1][10] - Macroeconomic pressures, such as slowing global growth and disappointing trade data from China, are negatively impacting demand, while OPEC+ has ramped up production unexpectedly [3][10] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-China trade talks, continue to influence short-term oil price movements [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Energy Stocks - Large-cap, high-yield energy stocks like Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and TC Energy Corporation (TRP) are recommended for stability amid market volatility, offering steady dividend payouts and operational resilience [2][5][6] - These companies, valued at over $10 billion, provide dependable cash flows and resilient business models, making them attractive for income-focused investors [5][6][8] Group 3: Company Profiles - **Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)**: One of Canada's largest independent oil and gas producers with a market capitalization of approximately $66 billion, CNQ has a quarterly dividend payout of 58.75 Canadian cents, yielding 5.2% annually [11][12][13] - **Kinder Morgan (KMI)**: A major energy infrastructure company with a market cap of around $63 billion, KMI operates extensive pipelines and storage facilities, offering a quarterly dividend of 29.25 cents, resulting in a 4.2% yield [14][15] - **TC Energy (TRP)**: A leading energy infrastructure firm with a market cap of about $53 billion, TRP operates a significant natural gas pipeline network and pays a quarterly dividend of 85 Canadian cents, yielding 4.7% [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in high-yielding dividend stocks like ExxonMobil and Kinder Morgan offers potential for passive income while also presenting growth opportunities through significant capital investments and predictable cash flows [1][2][15] ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil has a strong track record of increasing its dividend for 42 consecutive years, leading the oil industry and achieving a milestone only 4% of S&P 500 companies have reached [4] - The company plans to invest $140 billion in major projects and its Permian Basin development program through 2030, expecting returns of over 30% on these investments [5] - This investment strategy could yield an additional $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow by 2030, assuming oil prices average around $60 per barrel, translating to a 10% compound annual growth rate for earnings and an 8% growth rate for cash flow [6] - ExxonMobil estimates it could generate $165 billion in surplus cash through 2030, which would allow for increased shareholder distributions, including a planned $20 billion stock repurchase in 2026 [7][8] Kinder Morgan - Kinder Morgan has extended its dividend growth streak to eight consecutive years, with a current yield of over 4%, and expects to continue this growth for at least the next five years [9] - The company benefits from highly contracted and predictable cash flows, with only 5% exposed to commodity prices and 69% secured through take-or-pay agreements or hedging contracts [10] - Kinder Morgan has $8.8 billion in commercially secured expansion projects, a $5.8 billion increase from the previous year, including $8 billion in natural gas-related expansions expected to generate steady cash flow through 2030 [11] - The company recently acquired a natural gas gathering and processing system for $640 million, which will immediately enhance cash flow, and it has the financial flexibility to pursue further growth opportunities [12] - Kinder Morgan is actively exploring additional projects to supply gas to LNG export terminals and the power sector, anticipating increased demand driven by factors such as AI data centers [13][14] Growth Visibility - Both ExxonMobil and Kinder Morgan exhibit strong growth visibility through 2030, making them attractive options for investors seeking to buy and hold high-yielding dividend stocks [15]

With the demand for data processing increasing due to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, data centers are facing unprecedented energy challenges. Natural gas is emerging as a pivotal solution in the power strategies of these facilities, offering the reliability, scalability and economic viability needed to support continuous and intensive data processing operations.Integrating natural gas with renewable energy sources allows data centers to balance sustainability goals with op ...