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Moelis: Fade The Key Man Risk
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-21 14:45
Core Viewpoint - Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) stock has experienced a significant rebound, although it has not fully matched the performance of other U.S.-listed independent advisors since the previous analysis [1]. Group 1 - The stock of Moelis & Company has been on a positive trend following a prior selloff [1].
Why Moelis (MC) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again
ZACKS· 2025-07-18 17:11
Core Viewpoint - Moelis (MC) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of earnings surprises [1][5]. Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, Moelis reported earnings of $0.57 per share, falling short of the expected $0.64 per share, resulting in a surprise of 12.28% [2]. - In the previous quarter, Moelis significantly exceeded expectations, reporting $1.18 per share against a consensus estimate of $0.46 per share, leading to a surprise of 156.52% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Moelis, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for Moelis stands at +1.82%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8]. Zacks Rank and Success Rate - Moelis holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, historically results in a positive surprise rate of nearly 70% [6][8]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7].
LVMH Share transactions disclosure
Globenewswire· 2025-07-08 15:47
Group 1 - LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton has a diverse portfolio across various sectors including Wines and Spirits, Fashion and Leather Goods, Perfumes and Cosmetics, Watches and Jewelry, and Selective Retailing [2] - The company’s Wines and Spirits division features renowned brands such as Moët & Chandon, Hennessy, and Château d'Yquem, among others [2] - In the Fashion and Leather Goods sector, LVMH includes prestigious names like Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, and Fendi [2] Group 2 - LVMH is also involved in the Perfumes and Cosmetics market with brands like Guerlain and Fenty Beauty by Rihanna [2] - The Watches and Jewelry division includes luxury brands such as Bulgari and Tiffany & Co [2] - LVMH operates in Selective Retailing through entities like Sephora and DFS [2]
Moelis & Company (MC) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-06-30 09:40
Financial Performance & Returns - The company returned approximately $28 billion to shareholders[7, 65] - The company's Last Twelve Months (LTM) revenue as of Q1 2025 was $1284 million[7] - The total shareholder return is approximately 400%[7] - Revenue growth from FY 2014 to LTM Q1 2025 was 147%[7] Talent & Global Reach - The company has 168 Managing Directors (MDs), with approximately 45% being internally promoted[7] - The company has approximately 1300 employees[7] - The company has a global presence with 23 locations and advises clients in over 45 countries[7] - The company has deep knowledge in over 85 industries/sectors[7] Advisory Services - The company has restructured approximately $1 trillion of liabilities since its IPO in 2014[26] - The company's Private Capital Advisory team has advised on over $75 billion in private capital[39] - The company has raised approximately $200 billion in capital since its IPO[36] M&A Performance - The company has been involved in $22 trillion in transaction volume since its IPO[22]
Moelis & Company vs. Goldman: Which Finance Stock Has Better Upside?
ZACKS· 2025-06-18 16:11
Core Insights - The article compares Goldman Sachs (GS) and Moelis & Company (MC), highlighting their distinct business models within the investment banking industry, with GS being a global financial giant and MC being a focused advisory-driven boutique [1][2]. Goldman Sachs (GS) - GS maintains a leadership position in global investment banking, particularly in M&A advisory, equity, and debt underwriting, with a 24% increase in IB revenues in 2024 due to a rebound in corporate financing activity [3]. - However, GS experienced an 8% decline in IB revenues in Q1 2025, attributed to market turmoil and uncertainty over monetary policy, though its leading position in deal-making suggests enduring client trust [4]. - The firm is strategically exiting lower-margin consumer finance businesses to focus on high-return sectors like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple on the Apple Card and Apple Savings account [5]. - Goldman Asset Management aims for aggressive growth in private credit, targeting a portfolio of $300 billion by 2030, reinforcing its long-term growth potential [6]. Moelis & Company (MC) - MC demonstrates resilient performance driven by its high-quality advisory platform, achieving a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over five years despite revenue declines in 2019, 2022, and 2023 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in M&A and capital advisory, with elevated corporate debt levels driving demand for restructuring services [8]. - MC's business is diversified across various sectors and geographies, with no significant client concentration, and has advised on over $5.1 trillion in transactions since inception [9]. - MC projects a 42.4% year-over-year earnings growth for 2026, significantly outpacing GS's projected 13.1% growth, and offers a higher dividend yield of 4.64% compared to GS's 1.92% [10][22]. Performance and Valuation Comparison - Over the past year, GS shares gained 38.7%, while MC shares increased by 7.5%, both outperforming the industry average rise of 33.1% [11]. - GS is currently trading at a forward P/E of 13.26X, higher than its five-year median of 10.16X, while MC trades at a forward P/E of 25.65X, above its five-year median of 20.16X [14]. - Both companies have dividend yields exceeding the industry average, with MC having a notable edge [16]. Estimates and Growth Potential - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS indicates a revenue rise of 3.8% and 5.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 9.6% and 13.1% [19]. - In contrast, MC's estimates reflect a revenue increase of 2.8% and 20.9% for 2025 and 2026, with earnings growth of 0.6% and 42.4% [20]. - MC's advisory-driven model aligns well with the rising demand for restructuring services, indicating significant long-term potential [21][22]. - Despite trading at a premium valuation, MC's market capitalization of $4.4 billion compared to GS's $188.3 billion suggests more room for growth [23].
Moelis & Company (MC) 2025 Conference Transcript
2025-06-10 18:50
Summary of Moelis & Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Moelis & Company - **New CEO**: Naved Mamuzadigan will become CEO on October 1, 2023, transitioning from co-president, while Ken Moelis will become Executive Chairman and Jeff Rach will be appointed Executive Vice Chairman [2][4][5] Key Points and Arguments Leadership Transition - The transition is seen as a natural evolution of the firm, with a focus on promoting internal talent [4][5][6] - 45% of managing directors (MDs) are internally promoted, indicating a strong culture of talent development [5] Strategic Focus - The firm is focusing on major verticals with significant revenue opportunities, including technology and oil and gas [7][8] - A major expansion into private equity fundraising is planned, with a new focus on continuation vehicles [7][8] Market Environment - Optimism is expressed regarding the M&A environment, with indications of increased transaction activity despite previous setbacks [10][11] - The pipeline for new business is reportedly strong, with activity levels comparable to historical highs [13] Private Equity and Sponsor Clients - There is pressure on private equity firms to return capital to investors due to limited exit activity over the past few years [14][15] - Continuation vehicles are highlighted as a key opportunity for sponsors to provide liquidity to investors while retaining ownership of portfolio companies [15][34] IPO Market - The IPO market is beginning to open for certain types of companies, which could encourage more activity from sponsors [17] Interest Rates - While there is a desire for interest rate cuts, sponsors are not solely waiting for this to proceed with transactions [20][21] - Long-term concerns about elevated ten-year yields are acknowledged, but not seen as an immediate threat [22] Private Funds Advisory (PFA) - The PFA business is a significant growth area, with key hires made to strengthen this segment [23][24] - Continuation vehicles and LP to LP secondaries are identified as major opportunities within the PFA space [27][29] Restructuring Business - The restructuring segment is performing well, with steady activity levels expected even in a recovering economy [35][38] Hiring and Talent Acquisition - Competition for top talent remains high, with a focus on cultural fit and alignment with the firm's values [40][41] - The firm aims to maintain a nimble approach to hiring, especially during uncertain times [46][47] Financial Metrics - The compensation ratio was reported at 69% in Q1, with a target of low 60s for equilibrium in the long term [51][52] - Non-compensation growth is targeted at 15% year-over-year, with a focus on efficiency and technology adoption [57] Technology and AI - AI is seen as a potential tool to improve efficiency and enhance the capabilities of junior bankers [58][62] Overall Strategy - The firm aims to maintain its core values of collaboration, transparency, and a strong balance sheet while striving to be the best independent investment bank [64][65] Additional Important Points - The firm is committed to building long-term client relationships, which are central to its strategy and success [64][65] - The focus on internal promotions and talent development is a key differentiator for Moelis & Company in the competitive investment banking landscape [5][6]
Moelis (MC) Up 7.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
ZACKS· 2025-05-23 16:36
Company Overview - Moelis (MC) shares have increased by approximately 7.5% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The most recent earnings report is crucial for understanding the catalysts affecting the stock [1] Earnings Estimates - Estimates for Moelis have trended downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -14.05% in the past month [2] - The stock has received a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [4] VGM Scores - Moelis has an average Growth Score of C, but it significantly lags in Momentum Score with an F, and also has a Value Score of F, placing it in the lowest quintile for investment strategies [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for Moelis is F, which is a critical indicator for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Industry Comparison - Moelis is part of the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, where Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) has gained 22.3% over the past month [5] - Interactive Brokers reported revenues of $1.4 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +16%, with an EPS of $1.88 compared to $1.64 a year ago [5] - For the current quarter, Interactive Brokers is expected to post earnings of $1.73 per share, showing a year-over-year change of -1.7% [6]
Moelis & pany(MC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-25 21:42
Business Overview - Moelis is a leading global advisory-focused independent investment bank[6] - The firm has a global reach, advising clients in over 45 countries[7] - Moelis has deep knowledge in over 85 industries/sectors[7] Financial Performance - LTM 1Q 2025 Revenue is $1284 million[7] - Approximately $28 billion of capital has been returned to shareholders since IPO[7, 64] - Total shareholder return is approximately 400%[7] - Revenue growth from FY 2014 to LTM 1Q 2025 is 147%[7] Talent and Culture - The firm has 168 Managing Directors[7] - Approximately 45% of MDs are internally promoted[7] - The company has 1300 employees[7] Capital Structure Advisory - Moelis has restructured approximately $1 trillion of liabilities since IPO in 2014[26] - Approximately 60% of engagements are company-side and 40% are creditor side[26] - Approximately 50% of engagements have been completed out of court[30] Capital Markets - The firm has raised approximately $200 billion in capital since IPO[34] Private Funds Advisory - The firm has advised on over $75 billion in private capital[37]
Moelis & Company's Q1 Earnings Beat on Higher Revenues, Stock Up 4.9%
ZACKS· 2025-04-24 14:25
Core Viewpoint - Moelis & Company reported better-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of 64 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents, and significantly improving from 22 cents per share in the prior-year quarter [1][2] Financial Performance - Net income on a GAAP basis was $50.3 million, compared to $16.6 million in the prior-year quarter [2] - Total revenues on a GAAP basis grew 41% year over year to $306.6 million, driven by increases in M&A and capital markets revenues, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $289.8 million [3] - Total operating expenses on a GAAP basis rose 27.4% to $269.9 million, attributed to increases in compensation and benefits costs as well as non-compensation expenses, with estimates for total operating expenses at $252.9 million [3] Other Income and Liquidity - Other income on a GAAP basis was $6.1 million, up 45.2%, surpassing projections of $5.5 million [4] - As of March 31, 2025, the company held cash and liquid investments of $336.3 million, with no debt or goodwill [4] Strategic Outlook - The company's hiring spree and rising revenue-related compensation may negatively impact bottom-line growth, alongside concerns regarding a delayed rebound in global deal-making [5] - However, global expansion initiatives and diverse operations across various sectors are seen as positive factors for future growth [5] Peer Performance - Morgan Stanley reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.60 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23, with a 28.7% increase from the prior-year quarter [6] - Goldman Sachs achieved first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $14.12, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.71, and showing growth from $11.58 in the year-ago quarter [7]
Moelis & pany(MC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 02:27
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved revenues of $307 million in Q1 2025, representing a 41% increase compared to the prior year period, driven by growth in M&A and capital markets [6] - The first quarter compensation expense ratio was 69%, with a non-compensation ratio of 19% [6][7] - The underlying corporate tax rate for the quarter was 29.5%, with a net tax benefit due to a discrete tax benefit related to equity awards [8][9] - The board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, maintaining a strong balance sheet with no funded debt [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue split for the quarter was approximately two-thirds from M&A and one-third from capital markets and restructuring [61] - The company reported record new business origination and a robust pipeline, although some transactions have been delayed due to market volatility [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post-April 2nd, a new wave of volatility in capital markets has slowed M&A transaction activity, but the company believes this is a temporary phenomenon [11] - The backlog decreased from $331 million due to some transactions being shelved, with the majority being delayed rather than canceled [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to invest in the growth of its private funds advisory business, aiming to be a market leader in private capital solutions [12][13] - The focus remains on adding talent in strategic areas, including technology and business services, to enhance service offerings [13][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, stating that clients will continue to need strategic advice despite current market volatility [11] - The company is actively hiring in private capital advisory, indicating confidence in future M&A activity once the policy situation stabilizes [52][88] Other Important Information - The company has not seen a dramatic change in the recruiting environment despite recent market volatility, and it expects to benefit from talent leaving heavily leveraged institutions [66][69] - The tech team has been performing exceptionally well, contributing significantly to revenue and enhancing the company's overall impact in the sponsor world [102][106] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the backlog move from here and what could potentially cancel them? - Management indicated that the majority of the backlog is on delay due to market conditions, with some transactions shelved [21][22] Question: What is the tone shift in the restructuring business? - The restructuring business was flat in Q1, with increased conversations about financing options rather than immediate restructuring mandates [25][27] Question: How does volatility impact different geographic markets? - The US is seen as dynamic, while Europe has been less affected by recent volatility, with indications of potential positive actions in the European economy [36][37] Question: What is the expected trajectory for restructuring in a weaker economic scenario? - Management believes that liability management will be a significant focus, with less emphasis on traditional restructuring compared to previous downturns [56][58] Question: What is the split of revenue across M&A, capital markets, and restructuring? - The revenue split is about two-thirds from M&A and one-third from capital markets and restructuring combined [61] Question: How is the recruiting environment and talent retention being managed? - The company plans to aggressively pursue talent in private capital advisory and believes it will benefit from talent leaving leveraged institutions [66][69] Question: What is the impact of the accelerated vesting of retirement-eligible bankers on comp expense? - The first quarter saw a higher fixed comp ratio due to the accelerated vesting, approximately double the expense of a normal quarter [108]