MGIC Investment (MTG)

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MGIC Investment (MTG) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-04 18:52
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $185 million for Q4 2024, resulting in an annualized return on equity of 14% [9] - For the full year, net income reached $763 million, an increase from $730 million in the previous year [9] - Insurance in force at the end of the quarter was over $295 billion, showing a slight increase from the prior quarter [10] - The annual persistency rate remained stable at 85% throughout the year [10] - The in-force premium yield was 38.6 basis points, remaining relatively flat during the year [21] - Book value per share grew to $20.82, up 12% year-over-year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company wrote $16 billion in new insurance during Q4 and $56 billion for the full year, marking a 21% increase from the prior year [11] - Operating expenses for Q4 were $49 million, down from $55 million in the same quarter last year [23] - The company repurchased 7.8 million shares for $193 million in Q4 and paid a quarterly dividend of $33 million [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The housing market remains resilient, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and a generally positive economic outlook [16] - The consensus forecast for the PMI market in 2025 is expected to be similar in size to 2024, with elevated mortgage rates leading to high persistency [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company prioritizes prudent growth over capital return, with a focus on maintaining a strong and balanced insurance portfolio [13] - A well-established reinsurance program is a key component of the company's risk and capital management strategies [15] - The company aims to continue returning capital to shareholders primarily through share repurchases while maintaining quarterly dividends [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's leadership and market position, emphasizing capital strength and flexibility for future execution [30] - The company anticipates that if credit performance remains strong, capital levels will stay above target, and payout ratios will remain elevated [14] Other Important Information - The company experienced a favorable loss reserve development of $54 million in Q4 due to better-than-expected cure rates on delinquency notices [19] - The unrealized loss position on the investment portfolio increased by $129 million due to rising yields across the treasury curve [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on new notice claim rate and severity - Management explained that the increase in new notice severity is due to higher exposures from recent delinquencies, but they are targeting the same severity to exposure ratio as before [33] Question: Operating expense guidance - Management indicated that the lower operating expenses are a result of cumulative changes made over the past years, with expectations for continued reductions in 2025 [34][36] Question: GSE reform and privatization impacts - Management discussed the potential implications of GSE reform, emphasizing the importance of having the right guardrails in place for the market [40][42] Question: Claim rate expectations - Management noted that the current claim rate of 7.3% reflects adjustments due to hurricane-related delinquencies, with expectations to revert to 7.5% once those notices are resolved [76] Question: Debt-to-income trends - Management acknowledged that rising debt-to-income ratios are a reflection of affordability challenges due to increased home prices and interest rates [52][56] Question: Pricing environment for new insurance written (NIW) - Management stated that the risk-return profile for NIW remains favorable, with no significant changes in approach to pricing and risk factors [66] Question: Operating expense ratio and potential one-time benefits - Management clarified that the fourth quarter's expense ratio reflects natural variability and cumulative impacts of changes made, with no significant nonrecurring items [72][74]
MGIC Investment (MTG) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-04 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $185 million for Q4 2024, with an annualized return on equity of 14% [7] - For the full year, net income increased to $763 million from $713 million in the prior year [8] - The insurance in force at the end of the quarter was over $295 billion, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [8] - The annual persistency rate remained stable at 85% throughout the year [9] - The book value per share grew to $20.82, reflecting a 12% increase year-over-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company wrote $16 billion of new insurance in Q4 and $56 billion for the full year, marking a 21% increase from the prior year [9] - The in-force premium yield was 38.6 basis points, remaining relatively flat during the year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The housing market remains resilient, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and a generally positive economic outlook [11] - Consensus forecasts suggest that the mortgage insurance market in 2025 will be similar in size to 2024, with elevated mortgage rates expected to lead to high persistency [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a dynamic approach to capital management, focusing on financial strength and flexibility [10] - The reinsurance program is a key component of risk and capital management, providing capital diversification and reducing required assets [11] - The company aims to continue returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends while maintaining a strong insurance portfolio [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's leadership and market position, highlighting the successful execution of business strategies [22] - The company anticipates continued favorable credit trends and a stable risk profile, which may lead to elevated payout ratios [10] - Management noted that while the economic environment has been favorable, future conditions remain uncertain [33] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $700 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing a 92% payout ratio of net income [10] - Operating expenses for Q4 were $49 million, down from $55 million in the previous year, with expectations for further reductions in 2025 [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the new notice claim rate and its drivers? - Management explained that the increase in new delinquencies is due to higher exposures from recent vintages, but they are targeting the same severity to exposure ratio as before [24] Question: What are the drivers behind the lower operating expenses? - Management attributed the lower operating expenses to cumulative changes made over the past couple of years, aligning resources to add value [25][26] Question: How does GSE reform impact the company? - Management acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding GSE reform but emphasized the importance of having the right guardrails in place to protect taxpayers and ensure a stable market [29][30] Question: What is the normalized delinquency rate? - Management indicated that while the current environment is favorable, they expect more normalized delinquency rates to be in the range of 20% to 40% over time [36] Question: Can you elaborate on the pricing environment for new insurance written? - Management noted that the risk-return profile remains favorable, allowing for effective capital deployment [50]
MGIC Investment (MTG) - 2024 Q4 - Annual Results
2025-02-03 21:05
Financial Performance - Fourth Quarter 2024 net income was $184.7 million, or $0.72 per diluted share, compared to $184.5 million, or $0.66 per diluted share in Q4 2023[2][19] - Full Year 2024 net income reached $763.0 million, or $2.89 per diluted share, an increase from $712.9 million, or $2.49 per diluted share in 2023[2][19] - Net income for Q4 2024 was $184.7 million, a slight increase from $184.5 million in Q4 2023, while total net income for the year reached $763.0 million, up from $712.9 million in 2023[21] - Diluted net income per share increased to $0.72 in Q4 2024 from $0.66 in Q4 2023, and for the full year, it rose to $2.89 from $2.49[23] Insurance Operations - New insurance written (NIW) for Q4 2024 was $15.9 billion, down from $17.2 billion in Q3 2024 and up from $10.9 billion in Q4 2023[4] - New primary insurance written (NIW) for Q4 2024 was $15.9 billion, while the total NIW for the year was $55.7 billion, up from $46.1 billion in 2023[28] - The percentage of new primary risk written for Q4 2024 was $4.1 billion, compared to $2.8 billion in Q4 2023, showing a significant increase in risk underwriting[28] - In Q4 2024, 86.2% of new insurance written (NIW) was subject to reinsurance, slightly down from 87.0% in Q3 2024[35] Delinquency and Claims - The annual persistency rate decreased to 84.8% in Q4 2024 from 86.1% in Q4 2023[4] - The primary delinquency inventory increased to 26,791 in Q4 2024 from 25,650 in Q4 2023, with a primary IIF delinquency rate of 2.40%[4] - The delinquency rate for primary insurance in force rose to 2.40% in Q4 2024, compared to 2.24% in Q3 2024[33] - The primary average claim payment increased to $34.0 thousand in Q4 2024, compared to $27.2 thousand in Q3 2024[34] Financial Position - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, were $6.55 billion, compared to $6.54 billion in 2023, indicating a stable asset base[26] - The company's total liabilities decreased to $1.37 billion in 2024 from $1.47 billion in 2023, indicating a reduction in financial obligations[27] - The book value per share increased to $20.82 in 2024 from $18.61 in 2023, demonstrating growth in shareholder equity[27] - As of December 31, 2024, MGIC had $295.4 billion of primary insurance in force covering 1.1 million mortgages[9] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 7.8 million shares of common stock for $193.3 million in Q4 2024[7] - A dividend of $0.13 per common share was declared, payable on March 5, 2025[7] - The company paid $750 million in dividends to the holding company in the twelve months ended December 31, 2024[131] Risk Management and Compliance - The company incurred a $1 million termination fee in Q4 2024 related to the partial termination of a quota share reinsurance transaction[35] - MGIC established case reserves for 26,791 loans in its delinquency inventory, with an IBNR reserve totaling $29 million as of December 31, 2024[66] - The GSEs may change the credit allowed under the PMIERs for risk ceded under reinsurance transactions, potentially impacting MGIC's returns[65] - MGIC is in compliance with the PMIERs and is eligible to insure loans purchased by the GSEs[49] Market Environment - The FHA's share of low down payment residential mortgages was 33.2% in 2023, compared to 26.7% in 2022 and 24.7% in 2021, indicating a growing competitive pressure on MGIC[77] - The VA's market share of low down payment residential mortgages was 21.5% in 2023, down from 24.5% in 2022 and 30.2% in 2021, reflecting fluctuations in the competitive landscape[78] - The mortgage insurance industry remains highly competitive, with the company’s top ten customers accounting for approximately 37% of new insurance written (NIW) for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023[118] Investment Portfolio - The company’s investment portfolio is primarily composed of high-quality, investment-grade fixed income investments, but is subject to risks from economic conditions and interest rate volatility[126] - The company’s ability to manage risks in its investment portfolio is critical, as a prolonged period of low investment yields could adversely impact investment income[129] Regulatory Environment - Changes in state or federal regulations could lead to more mortgage loans being originated with higher risk characteristics, impacting the company's underwriting and pricing models[112] - A proposed regulatory capital rule could impose higher capital standards on large U.S. banks, potentially negatively affecting MGIC's new insurance written (NIW) if adopted[79] Cybersecurity Risks - Cybersecurity risks are increasing, with potential impacts from AI technology and hybrid workforce models[96] - The company may face material adverse effects from unauthorized disclosures of information or cyber attacks, with some costs potentially non-recoverable[98]
Here's Why MGIC Investment (MTG) is a Strong Value Stock
ZACKS· 2024-12-20 15:40
Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides various tools for investors to confidently navigate the stock market and identify investment opportunities [1] Zacks Style Scores - The Style Scores categorize stocks into four types: Growth Score, Momentum Score, Value Score, and VGM Score, each focusing on different investment strategies [3][9][19][10] - The Growth Style Score evaluates a company's financial strength and future outlook based on projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [19] - The Value Style Score highlights attractive and discounted stocks using ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [9] - The Momentum Score identifies optimal times to invest based on price changes and earnings estimate trends [3] - The VGM Score combines all Style Scores to provide a comprehensive indicator for stock selection [10] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to help investors build successful portfolios [21] - Stocks are rated from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with 1 stocks historically producing an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [11] - A stock's Zacks Rank should be considered alongside its Style Scores to maximize investment potential [12][23] Company Spotlight: MGIC Investment Corp. - MGIC Investment Corp. is the parent company of Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, the largest private mortgage insurer in the U.S., focusing on sustainable homeownership [24] - MGIC has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, with three analysts revising earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2024, increasing the consensus estimate to $2.85 per share [15][16] - The company also has a Value Style Score of B, supported by a forward P/E ratio of 8.18, making it attractive for value investors [25][26]
MGIC (MTG) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
ZACKS· 2024-12-04 17:36
Core Viewpoint - MGIC Investment reported strong third-quarter earnings, surpassing estimates, driven by higher revenues and new insurance written, although some metrics showed slight declines compared to the previous year [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The operating net income per share for Q3 2024 was 77 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.3% [2]. - Total operating revenues reached $306 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, matching consensus expectations [3]. - New insurance written amounted to $17.2 billion, representing a significant year-over-year growth of 17.8% [7]. Operational Metrics - Insurance in force decreased by 0.5% year-over-year to $292.8 billion, aligning with estimates [4]. - Primary delinquency increased by 1.5% to 25,089 loans [5]. - The loss ratio for the quarter was reported at 4%, compared to 0% in the same quarter of the previous year [9]. Investment Income and Expenses - Net investment income rose by 12.1% year-over-year to $62 million, slightly below estimates [5]. - Net premiums written decreased by 0.2% year-over-year to $234 million, which was lower than the estimated $237.3 million [5]. - Net underwriting and other expenses totaled $53.3 million, reflecting a 0.6% increase year-over-year [8]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Deployment - The company repurchased 5.2 million shares for $122.9 million during Q3 2024 [12]. - In the past 12 months, MGIC paid $650 million in dividends [13]. - An additional 2.9 million shares were repurchased in October for $72.4 million, with a dividend of 13 cents per share declared for payment on November 21, 2024 [14]. Financial Health - Book value per share increased by 19% year-over-year to $20.66 as of September 30, 2024 [10]. - Shareholder equity stood at $5.3 billion, up 4.3% from the end of 2023 [11]. - PMIERs Available Assets totaled $6 billion, exceeding the Minimum Required Assets by $2.5 billion [11]. Market Outlook - Estimates for MGIC have trended downward recently, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [15][17]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [17].
Why MGIC Investment (MTG) is a Top Value Stock for the Long-Term
ZACKS· 2024-11-11 15:41
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.Zacks Premium also includes the Zacks Style Scores.What are the Zacks Style Scores?The Zacks Style Scor ...
Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About MGIC (MTG) Q3 Earnings
ZACKS· 2024-11-05 01:00
MGIC Investment (MTG) reported $306.07 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 3%. EPS of $0.77 for the same period compares to $0.64 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $306.11 million, representing a surprise of -0.01%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +14.93%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.67.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings ...
MGIC Investment (MTG) Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-11-04 23:31
MGIC Investment (MTG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.67 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.64 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 14.93%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this mortgage insurance company would post earnings of $0.62 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.77, delivering a surprise of 24.19%.Over the last four quar ...
MGIC Investment (MTG) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2024-11-04 21:05
Financial Performance - Third Quarter 2024 net income was $200.0 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, compared to $182.8 million, or $0.64 per diluted share in Q3 2023, reflecting a 9.5% year-over-year increase in net income[1][3][19] - Net income for Q3 2024 was $199,969,000, an increase of 9.6% compared to $182,844,000 in Q3 2023[20] - Diluted net income per share rose to $0.77 in Q3 2024 from $0.64 in Q3 2023, reflecting a 20.3% increase[21] - The company reported net premiums earned of $243.3 million in Q3 2024, compared to $241.3 million in Q3 2023, indicating a modest growth[3][19] - The loss ratio for Q3 2024 was (4.0%), an improvement from (0.0%) in Q3 2023, indicating better loss management[3] - Total assets increased to $6,677,784,000 as of September 30, 2024, compared to $6,538,380,000 at the end of 2023, marking a growth of 2.1%[23] - Total liabilities decreased to $1,383,708,000 as of September 30, 2024, down from $1,466,363,000 at the end of 2023, a reduction of 5.6%[24] Insurance Metrics - New insurance written (NIW) for Q3 2024 was $17.2 billion, up from $14.6 billion in Q3 2023, representing a 17.8% increase[3] - New primary insurance written (NIW) reached $17.2 billion in Q3 2024, up from $14.6 billion in Q3 2023, representing an 17.8% increase[25] - New primary risk written was $4.5 billion in Q3 2024, compared to $3.5 billion in Q2 2024, showing a 28.6% increase[25] - The percentage of new primary insurance written with FICO scores below 680 remained stable at 4% for both Q3 2024 and Q3 2023[25] - Primary Insurance In Force (IIF) for Q3 2024 is $292.8 billion, a decrease from $294.3 billion in Q3 2023[26] - The primary IIF delinquency rate increased to 2.24% in Q3 2024 from 2.14% in Q3 2023[3] - The primary average direct reserve per delinquency decreased to $18,232 in Q3 2024 from $20,307 in Q2 2024[29] Shareholder Returns - MGIC paid a dividend of $0.13 per common share in Q3 2024 and repurchased 5.2 million shares for $122.9 million[5] - In the twelve months ended September 30, 2024, the company paid $650 million in dividends to the holding company, with future payments subject to regulatory approval[143] Capital and Liquidity - Holding company liquidity was reported at $841 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to $723 million a year earlier[4] - As of September 30, 2024, MGIC's Available Assets totaled $6.0 billion, exceeding the Minimum Required Assets by $2.5 billion[52] - MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio was 9.6 to 1 as of September 30, 2024, which is below the maximum allowed by jurisdictions with State Capital Requirements[73] - The company has agreed to a 40% quota share transaction with unaffiliated reinsurers covering most of its 2025 and 2026 NIW[6] Delinquency and Claims - The primary delinquency inventory increased to 25,089, up from 24,720 in Q3 2023, while the primary IIF delinquency rate rose to 2.24% from 2.14% in Q3 2023[3] - Beginning delinquent inventory for Q3 2024 is 23,370, an increase from 24,142 in Q2 2024[28] - New notices for delinquency increased to 13,679 in Q3 2024 from 11,444 in Q2 2024, representing a 19.5% increase[28] - Ending delinquent inventory rose to 25,089 in Q3 2024, up from 23,370 in Q2 2024, indicating a 7.4% increase[28] - Net paid claims for Q3 2024 were $10 million, down from $12 million in Q2 2024[29] Regulatory and Market Environment - The GSEs' updated Equitable Housing Finance Plans published in spring 2024 may impact mortgage insurance practices and revenues[39] - The proposed regulatory capital rule by the Federal Reserve could negatively impact new insurance written (NIW) if adopted, although the extent of the impact remains uncertain[82] - The company is subject to comprehensive regulation, which may impact its ability to write new insurance if it fails to meet State Capital Requirements[75] - The revised Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act adopted by the NAIC includes new capital and minimum capital requirements, which may affect MGIC's operations[74] Risk Factors - Changes in claim rate and claim severity estimates could materially impact MGIC's future results, even in stable economic conditions[57] - Cybersecurity threats are increasing in frequency and sophistication, posing risks to the company's information security and operational integrity[100] - The company's risk management programs may not effectively identify or mitigate risks, potentially impacting financial results[92] - The company faces potential adverse effects on operations from unauthorized disclosures of information or cyber attacks, which may not be fully recoverable through insurance[102] Market Trends - The FHA's share of low down payment residential mortgages was 33.2% in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022 and 24.7% in 2021, indicating a significant increase in government-supported mortgage insurance market share[80] - The VA's market share of low down payment residential mortgages decreased to 21.5% in 2023 from 24.5% in 2022 and 30.2% in 2021, reflecting a downward trend[81] - The market price of the company's common stock may fluctuate significantly due to various factors, including economic conditions and changes in operating performance[148]
All You Need to Know About MGIC (MTG) Rating Upgrade to Strong Buy
ZACKS· 2024-10-11 17:01
MGIC Investment (MTG) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices. The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The power of a cha ...