Financial Data and Key Metrics - Net income per diluted common share for Q3 2024 was $0.65, down from $0.68 in the same period last year [25] - NAREIT and normalized FFO per diluted common share decreased 4.6% to $1.03 compared to the prior year's third quarter [26] - FAD for the quarter increased 2.5% to $49.4 million from $48.2 million in the prior year's third quarter [26] - SHOP NOI increased 30.4% year-over-year and 2.5% sequentially to $3 million [22] - SHOP occupancy improved to 88.6% from 79% year-over-year, contributing to a 320 basis points margin expansion to 22% [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Senior Living Management (SLM) ceased lease and interest payments, leading to a $1 million reduction in lease and interest payments [27] - Bickford's EBITDARM coverage improved to 1.72x, up from 1.45x in Q2 2024 [16] - Bickford's occupancy improved by 80 basis points sequentially to 86.2% [17] - The SNF portfolio reported EBITDARM coverage of 3.04x, up from 2.97x in the previous quarter [22] - The discretionary senior housing portfolio, including entrance fee properties, had EBITDARM coverage of 1.64x, up from 1.6x in the previous quarter [21] Market Data and Key Metrics - SHOP occupancy improved by 160 basis points sequentially, reaching 89.1% by the end of September [23] - Resident fees increased by 11.4% year-over-year, driven by occupancy improvements [23] - The company expects to reduce move-in incentives as occupancy approaches 90%, leading to margin improvements [24] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company closed $205 million in investments year-to-date at an average initial yield of 8.4%, including a $121 million acquisition of the Spring Arbor portfolio [7] - The company has a pipeline of $1.9 billion in investment opportunities, with $59.8 million in board-approved deals expected to close this year or early next year [7] - The company is pursuing large portfolios, including SHOP and skilled nursing deals, not included in the pipeline numbers [8] - The company's cost of capital has improved significantly over the last 12 months, supported by industry fundamentals and reduced portfolio optimization noise [8] - The company sees tailwinds from low inventory growth (1%) and new starts at the lowest level since 2010, along with demographic trends [9] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about the future, citing strong financial positioning and multi-faceted growth opportunities [9] - The company expects to recapture a significant portion of lost NOI from SLM transitions by 2025 [20] - Management tightened SHOP NOI growth guidance to 28%-30%, up from 25%-30% [24] - The company is monitoring the long-term bond market in 2025, given its reliance on the revolving credit facility for liquidity [32] Other Important Information - The company completed a $189 million equity offering, with $65 million in future proceeds available [29] - The company amended its $700 million revolving credit facility, extending the maturity to October 2028 [31] - The company declared a $0.90 per share dividend for shareholders of record December 31, 2024 [34] - Chairman Andy Adams will retire effective December 31, 2024 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on PACS and NHI's coverage post-transition - PACS is a smaller customer, with less than 3% of revenue, and half of that related to assisted living [38] - EBITDARM coverage for PACS properties is over 2x, based on prior operator performance [38] - The company is monitoring PACS closely but sees no immediate concerns [39] Question: Expected yields and mix in the investment pipeline - The pipeline includes debt, triple net lease, and SHOP deals, with expected yields of 8% or more [41] - SHOP yields may compress slightly as the market becomes more competitive [41] Question: Recovery expectations for SLM-related NOI - The company expects to recover normal rent levels by the second half of 2025 [47] - Two properties are cash-flowing and expected to return to full rent by early 2025 [49] - One property is expected to sell within 30-60 days, with interest accruing post-sale [50] Question: Impact of the election on healthcare and labor costs - Management is cautiously optimistic about the regulatory environment under the new administration [55] - Labor costs have stabilized, with no expected retrenchment in employment rates [60] Question: Board updates and state-level election impacts - The company is finalizing a new independent board member, to be presented in the next proxy season [63] - State-level subsidy programs for skilled nursing operators are being closely monitored [65] Question: Investment pace and overhead - The company expects to close $200-$400 million in investments annually, with potential for higher volumes if cost of capital remains attractive [69] - The company recently hired a Senior Vice President of Legal Affairs to support increased deal activity [70] Question: SHOP NOI growth and rate increases - The company expects to reduce incentives as occupancy stabilizes above 90%, leading to margin improvements [72] - Rate increases are expected to flow through to the bottom line by early to mid-2025 [72] Question: SHOP strategy and length of stay trends - The company's strategy of using pricing to drive occupancy has been successful, with nearly half of buildings reaching 90% occupancy [76] - Length of stay has stabilized but remains below pre-pandemic levels, influencing pricing decisions [79] Question: Medicare Advantage and SNF exposure - Management is cautiously optimistic about potential rate increases and a favorable regulatory environment under the new administration [81]

National Health Investors Q3 2024 Supplemental ONAL HEALTH INVEST TABLE OF CONTENTS | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------| | | | | COMPANY | | | COMPANY INFORMATION & LEADERSHIP | 02 | | PORTFOLIO | | | PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW | 03 | | REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS | 04 | | SENIOR HOUSING OPERATING PORTFOLIO | 05 | | OPERATING PARTNERS | 06 | | EBITDARM LEASE COVERAGE & OCCUPANCY | 07 | | PURCHASE OPTIONS & LEASE MATURITIES | 08 | | INVESTMENTS | | | INVESTMENT RATIONALE | 09 | | RECENT INVESTME ...

Core Insights - National Health Investors (NHI) reported revenue of $82.94 million for the quarter ended September 2024, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-over-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.03, up from $0.68 in the same quarter last year [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $80.7 million by 2.78%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.07 by 3.74% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Rental income was $63.32 million, surpassing the average estimate of $62.52 million, with a year-over-year increase of 1.7% [3] - Interest income and other revenues totaled $5.86 million, slightly above the estimated $5.81 million, marking a 6.8% increase from the previous year [3] - Resident fees and services generated $13.77 million, exceeding the estimate of $13.53 million, representing an 11.4% year-over-year growth [3] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of National Health Investors have declined by 6.1%, compared to a 0.5% decrease in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [4] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - National Health Investors (NHI) reported quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $1.03 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07 per share, representing a -3.74% surprise [1] - The company posted revenues of $82.94 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.78% [2] Financial Performance - NHI's FFO for the same quarter last year was $1.08 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline [1] - Over the last four quarters, NHI has surpassed consensus FFO estimates three times [2] - The company has also topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance - NHI shares have increased approximately 35.9% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 19.8% [3] - The current consensus FFO estimate for the coming quarter is $1.13 on revenues of $85.08 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.48 on revenues of $329.27 million [7] Industry Outlook - The Zacks Industry Rank for REIT and Equity Trust - Other is currently in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in estimate revisions, which can impact NHI's stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted common share for Q3 2024 was $0.65, down from $0.68 in Q3 2023[1]. - NAREIT FFO per diluted common share for Q3 2024 was $1.03, compared to $1.08 in Q3 2023[2]. - Normalized FAD for Q3 2024 was $49.4 million, an increase from $48.2 million in Q3 2023[4]. - Net income attributable to common stockholders for the third quarter of 2024 was $28.5 million, compared to $29.3 million in the same period last year[31]. - Net income for Q3 2024 was $28,242,000, a decrease of 2.7% from $29,033,000 in Q3 2023[32]. - The company recorded a net income of $94.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $103.6 million for the same period in 2023[31]. Revenue and Income Sources - Rental income recognized from tenants increased by $1.1 million, or 1.7%, in Q3 2024[7]. - Rental income rose to $63,318,000, compared to $62,255,000 in Q3 2023, reflecting a growth of 1.7%[39]. - Resident fees and services increased to $13,771,000, up 11.4% from $12,367,000 in Q3 2023[39]. Operating Metrics - Net operating income (NOI) from the Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) segment totaled $3.0 million, a 30.4% increase year-over-year[8]. - Consolidated net operating income (NOI) increased to $69,414,000, up 3.4% from $67,153,000 in the same quarter last year[32]. - The average occupancy for the SHOP portfolio improved to 88.6%, with a year-over-year increase of 960 basis points[9]. - NHI's same-store occupancy for SLC properties was 84.0% in September 2024, slightly down from 84.3% in August 2024[24]. - The company reported a decrease in same-store occupancy for SHOP properties to 89.1% in September 2024 from 88.5% in August 2024[24]. Guidance and Projections - NHI updated its 2024 annual guidance for NAREIT FFO per diluted common share to a range of $4.39 - $4.41, down from $4.50 - $4.54[6]. - The company expects NAREIT FFO attributable to common stockholders to be in the range of $193.8 million to $194.4 million for 2024[25]. - NHI's normalized FFO per diluted common share is projected to be between $4.43 and $4.44 for 2024[25]. - SHOP NOI growth is anticipated to be between 28% and 30% year over year[25]. Investment and Debt - NHI closed on $205.6 million in new investments in 2024 with an average initial yield of 8.4%[9]. - As of September 30, 2024, NHI had $1.1 billion in net debt, including $319.0 million outstanding on its revolving credit facility[18]. - NHI has approximately $350.0 million in a pipeline of investment opportunities, excluding portfolio deals[17]. - Debt increased slightly to $1,136,302 thousand from $1,135,051 thousand, an increase of approximately 0.1%[40]. Shareholder Metrics - The weighted average diluted common shares outstanding increased to 43,987,072 in September 2024 from 43,388,841 in August 2024[28]. - The weighted average diluted shares outstanding increased to 43,987,072 from 43,388,841 in the previous year[39]. - Earnings per common share (diluted) was $0.65, down from $0.68 in Q3 2023[39]. Expenses and Financial Position - Total expenses for the quarter were $54,804,000, an increase from $52,012,000 in Q3 2023, representing a rise of 5.4%[39]. - Interest expenses decreased slightly to $14,939,000 from $15,086,000 in Q3 2023[39]. - Real estate properties, net decreased to $2,096,824 thousand from $2,107,082 thousand, a decline of approximately 0.4%[40]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $15,550 thousand from $22,347 thousand, a decline of approximately 30.5%[40]. - Stockholders' equity decreased to $1,228,950 thousand from $1,253,952 thousand, a decline of approximately 2.0%[40]. Risks and Challenges - The company continues to face risks related to tenant performance and potential bankruptcy proceedings[40]. - Future performance may be impacted by changes in governmental regulations and reimbursement rates affecting tenants[40]. Upcoming Events - NHI will host a conference call on November 6, 2024, to discuss third quarter results[27].

National Health Investors (NHI) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 10.2% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier. How to Determine if a Stock is Oversold We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spottin ...

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Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Group 1: Company Overview - National Health Investors (NHI) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong potential for momentum investing [3] - NHI has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it is positioned for outperformance in the market [4] Group 2: Price Performance - Over the past week, NHI shares increased by 5.84%, outperforming the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust - Other industry, which rose by 3.92% [6] - In a longer timeframe, NHI shares have risen by 24.15% over the past quarter and 57.29% over the last year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gains of 8.19% and 26.56%, respectively [7] Group 3: Trading Volume - NHI's average 20-day trading volume is 259,269 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Group 4: Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for NHI have been revised upwards, increasing the consensus estimate from $4.40 to $4.52 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards, with no downward revisions, indicating positive earnings momentum [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter exceeded forecasts, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of outperformance, driven by stable cash collections, steady deferral repayments, and improving operator fundamentals [4][6] - Normalized FFO per share increased by 11.4% year-over-year, while total dollar FAD rose by 16.1% [6][17] - Net income per diluted common share for Q2 2024 was $0.81, down from $0.92 in the same period last year, but up 14.1% sequentially [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) NOI increased by 39.9% year-over-year to approximately $3 million, with occupancy improving to 87% from 75.5% [7][13] - The discretionary senior housing portfolio's coverage improved to 1.6 times, driven by performance improvements at various operators [12] - EBITDARM coverage for need-driven operators improved to 1.38 times, with Bickford's coverage at 1.67 times [10][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has sourced investment opportunities totaling over $1.8 billion, with board-approved signed LOIs of $155.4 million expected to close this year [4][5] - The investment pipeline includes approximately $270 million, primarily targeting senior housing assets and fee-simple real estate [5][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to pre-pandemic acquisition growth levels, with a strong emphasis on external investment activity as a significant driver of cash flow growth [5][8] - The updated guidance reflects a midpoint normalized FFO per share growth of 4.8% and a midpoint FAD growth of 7% compared to 2023 [7][24] - The company is agnostic to short-term economic fluctuations, believing it is positioned to succeed through all business cycle stages [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential of the senior housing market, supported by favorable demographic trends [8] - The company is optimistic about its future, indicating it is in the early stages of exceptional growth for several years to come [8] - Management noted that the timing of investments and rent resets will depend on operators' ability to improve their NOIs [34] Other Important Information - The company declared a $0.90 per share dividend for shareholders of record on September 27, 2024, payable on November 1, 2024 [20] - The balance sheet remains strong, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.2 times, well within the stated leverage policy [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will Blueprint look for replacement tenants for NHC? - Management confirmed that it is within Blueprint's scope to look for replacement tenants, with NHC having the right to renew the lease at market rates [27] Question: What are the main assumptions driving the expected deceleration in SHOP growth? - Management indicated that improvements in portfolio optimization and cash basis tenants are driving growth, with continued expectations for improvements over the prior year [28] Question: Are LOIs included in guidance? - Management clarified that guidance does not include effects from LOIs, only closed transactions are reflected [29] Question: Is FAD growth a moving target due to rent deferral repayments? - Management acknowledged that while FAD growth is influenced by deferral repayments, there are various organic opportunities contributing to growth [32] Question: What is the source of the $1.8 billion investment pipeline? - Management explained that the $1.8 billion represents a universe of opportunities being evaluated, including relationships built over the years and current market conditions [37][38] Question: How is the $270 million investment pipeline structured? - Management indicated that the pipeline is skewed towards fee-simple investments, with a focus on need-driven senior housing [40] Question: How does the company plan to manage leverage as the pipeline builds? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining liquidity and investment-grade credit rating while being proactive in managing capital needs [52][53]

National Health Investors (NHI) came out with quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $1.18 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10 per share. This compares to FFO of $1.06 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an FFO surprise of 7.27%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this health care real estate investment trust would post FFO of $1.05 per share when it actually produced FFO of $1.10, delivering a surprise of 4.76%. ...