With a market cap of $19.8 billion, NiSource Inc. (NI) operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility through its Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations segments. The company delivers natural gas to approximately 2.4 million customers across several states using an extensive network of distribution and transmission pipelines. Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally classified as “large-cap” stocks, and NiSource fits this criterion perfectly. NiSource also generates, transmits, ...

Core Insights - NiSource Inc. (NI) is focused on modernizing its infrastructure and transitioning from coal-based units to clean energy assets, making it a strong investment in the Utility-Electric Power industry [1] Growth Outlook & Surprise History - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NI's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is $1.88, indicating a year-over-year growth of 7.43% [2] - The revenue estimate for 2025 is $6.26 billion, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 14.70% [2] - NI's long-term earnings growth rate is projected at 7.93% [2] - The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.23% [2] Dividend History - NI has consistently increased shareholder value through dividends, currently paying a quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share, leading to an annualized dividend of $1.12 [3] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.56%, outperforming the S&P 500 composite average of 1.09% [3] Capital Investment Focus - NI's capital investment plan anticipates expenditures between $26.4 billion and $28.4 billion for the period of 2026-2030 [4] - Strategic investments include the development of two 1,300-megawatt natural gas-fired turbines, 400 megawatts of new battery storage, and upgrades to critical transmission infrastructure [5] Debt Structure - NI's total debt to capital ratio is 58.37%, which is better than the industry average of 59.51% [6] - The company's capital structure is more efficient due to lower reliance on debt [6] Solvency Ratio - NI's times interest earned (TIE) ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 3.0, indicating strong capability to meet long-term debt obligations [7] Share Price Performance - Over the past year, NI's shares have increased by 14.4%, although this lags behind the industry's growth of 16.2% [10]

Core Insights - NIPSCO Generation plans to construct up to 3 GW of gas-fired generation and battery storage to support Amazon data centers, with an estimated investment of approximately $7 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - GenCo will build two 1.3-GW gas-fired power plants and a 400-MW, 4-hour battery storage system for the data centers, while NIPSCO anticipates a non-data center load of about 2.3 GW by 2028 [2]. - The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approved the GenCo framework to ensure existing customers do not bear the costs of infrastructure for large customers like Amazon [3]. - NIPSCO is expected to start providing power to Amazon data centers by January 1, 2027, with capacity deliveries increasing to 2.4 GW by the end of 2032 [6]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The 15-year agreement with Amazon is projected to generate around $1 billion in savings for NIPSCO's ratepayers, translating to approximately $7 in monthly savings for residential customers [4]. - NIPSCO and GenCo have requested IURC approval for a "special contract" and a power purchase agreement (PPA) related to the arrangement with Amazon [5][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Operations - NIPSCO will construct, own, and operate the necessary transmission infrastructure for the Amazon data centers, with costs kept separate from the utility's rate base [8].

Core Viewpoint - The utility sector is experiencing a significant earnings growth, driven by new contracts with data center providers, which may lead to lower consumer bills rather than higher costs [2][4][6]. Group 1: Earnings Growth and Utility Contracts - The utility sector is witnessing the longest run in earnings growth in its history, with sales and volumetric growth on the rise [2][3]. - A notable contract in Northern Indiana will result in a billion-dollar refund to consumers over a decade, showcasing a shift in the narrative around utility costs [6][7]. - Companies like NiSource are expected to double their earnings in less than a decade, with projections indicating earnings could reach nearly four dollars by 2033 [8][9]. Group 2: Data Center Impact - Data center providers, such as Amazon and Microsoft, are entering into contracts that significantly increase their energy payments, which may not be reflected in consumer bills [5][9]. - The pricing for energy from data centers can be about ten times higher than what consumers pay, indicating a substantial revenue stream for utilities [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Positioning - Utilities in the Midwest, including Alliant and Evergy, are well-positioned to maintain customer bills while benefiting from long-term contracts that extend into the 2030s [10][11]. - The energy landscape is shifting towards a combination of natural gas and renewables, making energy competitive and sustainable [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to ensure proper functionality and access to content [1] Group 1 - The article emphasizes that users may face access issues if ad-blockers are enabled, suggesting the need to disable them for a better experience [1]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, reflecting a growth trajectory [8][29] - The adjusted EPS growth rate for the base business is projected at 6% to 8% annually through 2030, with a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 8% to 9% through 2033 [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured approval for the GenCo model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, enhancing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The GenCo investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][26] - The company is advancing its AI and digital strategy, achieving sustained field productivity uplifts of over 20% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively pursuing large load customers, with a recent contract with a significant investment-grade data center customer [13][20] - The partnership with Columbia Gas of Virginia to deliver natural gas to Eli Lilly's new $5 billion facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs [11][12] - The company is focused on economic development initiatives that expand the customer base and promote efficient distribution of fixed costs [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver safe, reliable energy while capitalizing on emerging data center opportunities, with a focus on customer affordability [5][14] - The GenCo strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new customers with speed and flexibility, reinforcing the company's competitive position [12][36] - The company is committed to minimizing the financial impact of safety and reliability investments on customers, with a focus on operational excellence [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the pipeline of opportunities, with negotiations for an additional 1 to 3 gigawatts of projects ongoing [37] - The company is focused on maintaining affordability and reliability, with a positive relationship with the Indiana governor's office regarding economic development opportunities [67] - Management highlighted the importance of thoughtful risk management provisions in contracts to protect financial integrity [24][74] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan, increasing the base capital plan to $21 billion, with an additional $7 billion for data center investments [26][27] - The company is committed to a 14% to 16% FFO to debt ratio in all years of its plan, with a downgrade threshold of 13% [44][31] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity to support current initiatives and future growth opportunities [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a very large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path towards executing additional contracts based on this model [41][42] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25 to $0.45 range reflects contributions from multiple customers, with the potential for additional customers to push towards the higher end of that range [50][51] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for GenCo? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity, debt, and non-controlling interest associated with minority interest investors [52] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within GenCo? - The targeted return for GenCo is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support customer needs [79][80] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85-$1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07, reflecting a projected growth from the 2025 midpoint [28][34] - The adjusted EPS trajectory is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% from $1.37 in 2021 to a projected $1.88 in 2025 [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured approval of the Genco model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, reinforcing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The Genco investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing its tracker programs in Ohio and Indiana, with a Pennsylvania rate case expected to conclude by year-end [10][11] - Columbia Gas of Virginia's partnership with Eli Lilly for a $5 billion manufacturing facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs, showcasing economic development [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 6%-8% annual adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030 and an 8%-9% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2033, aligning financial plans with long-term stakeholder value [7][30] - The Genco strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new large load customers with speed and flexibility, enhancing the competitive position [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of customer affordability and the proactive approach to economic development, ensuring reliability and sustainability [11][12] - The company is confident in its ability to execute large-scale construction projects and is focused on operational excellence to meet growing customer needs [10][36] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan to $28 billion, which includes $7 billion for data center investments, marking one of the largest investment cycles in its history [26][27] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity, reinforcing the capital structure for Genco [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path for executing future negotiations based on this model [39][41] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [43][44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25-$0.45 range reflects contributions from the current customer, with potential upside from additional strategic negotiations [49][50] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for Genco? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity and debt, supporting the full $28 billion of capital expenditures [52][53] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within Genco? - The targeted return for Genco is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support development [77][79] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures will occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 [6][22] - The 2026 consolidated EPS guidance is announced to be $2.02 to $2.07, reflecting strong financial commitments and growth potential [6][26] - The adjusted EPS trajectory shows an increase from $1.37 in 2021 to a projected $1.88 in 2025, representing an 8.2% CAGR over five years [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured approval for the GenCo model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, reinforcing its regulatory foundation [5][8] - The GenCo investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [19][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing its regulatory agenda in Ohio and Indiana, with a Pennsylvania rate case expected to conclude by year-end [8][9] - Columbia Gas of Virginia's partnership with Eli Lilly for a $5 billion manufacturing facility is highlighted as a proactive economic development initiative [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 6% to 8% annual adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030 and an 8% to 9% CAGR for consolidated business through 2033 [5][27] - Investments in AI-driven operational efficiencies are emphasized to enhance customer affordability and service quality [7][10] - The GenCo strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new large load customers with speed and flexibility [10][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in the pipeline of projects and the ability to execute on new customer agreements, highlighting a robust growth strategy [33] - The focus remains on customer affordability and operational excellence, with a commitment to minimizing the financial impact of investments on customers [11][28] Other Important Information - The company has introduced a refreshed five-year capital expenditure plan of $28 billion, which includes $7 billion for data center investments [23][24] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners is expected to contribute $1.5 billion in equity, reinforcing the capital structure [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is described as a very large investment-grade data center customer, with a new business model being unlocked for future negotiations [35][36] Question: What is the return profile or capital structure assumptions within the GenCo? - The targeted return for GenCo is expected to exceed NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support customer needs [64][65] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The range reflects contributions from multiple customers, with the current customer fitting within that range, and additional customers could push towards the higher end [43][44] Question: What protections are in place for the contracts? - The contracts include thoughtful risk management provisions, cost-sharing arrangements, and a fixed-rate structure to mitigate risks [60][61] Question: How does the timing of capital investment align with earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings ramping up as customers begin to utilize the infrastructure [66][67]

Core Insights - NiSource Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share (EPS) of 19 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 5% and down by a penny from the previous year [1] - The company’s total revenues reached $1.28 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 billion by 8.6% and increasing 18.3% year-over-year [2][9] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses were $0.98 billion, up 13.7% from $0.86 billion in the prior-year quarter [3] - Operating income increased to $297.5 million, a rise of 36.3% from $218.3 million in the previous year [3] - Net interest expenses rose to $179.8 million, up 33.6% from $134.6 million in the prior-year quarter [3] Sales and Distribution - Total gas distribution in Sales and Transportation (excluding weather) was 100.2 Million British Thermal Units per day (MMDth), up 3.5% from 96.8 MMDth in the prior-year quarter [4] - Total electric sales (excluding weather) were recorded at 4,621.6 gigawatt-hours (GWh), an increase of 0.8% from 4,587.1 GWh in the prior-year quarter [4] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $95 million, down from $156.6 million as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Long-term debts as of September 30, 2025, were $14.47 billion, compared to $12.07 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash flows from operating activities in the first nine months of 2025 were $1.65 billion, up from $1.24 billion in the same period of 2024 [5] Liquidity and Guidance - NiSource's liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was nearly $3 billion, sufficient to meet near-term obligations [6] - The company reaffirmed 2025 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $1.85-$1.89 per share and expects 2026 non-GAAP earnings in the range of $2.02-$2.07 [7] - NiSource anticipates an earnings CAGR of 6-8% through 2030 [7] Capital Expenditure - The company plans a capital expenditure of $28 billion for the 2026-2030 period, which is nearly $8.6 billion higher than the previous five-year plan, primarily driven by $7 billion in strategic investments for data centers [8][9]