Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85-$1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07, reflecting a projected growth from the 2025 midpoint [28][34] - The adjusted EPS trajectory is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% from $1.37 in 2021 to a projected $1.88 in 2025 [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured approval of the Genco model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, reinforcing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The Genco investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing its tracker programs in Ohio and Indiana, with a Pennsylvania rate case expected to conclude by year-end [10][11] - Columbia Gas of Virginia's partnership with Eli Lilly for a $5 billion manufacturing facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs, showcasing economic development [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 6%-8% annual adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030 and an 8%-9% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2033, aligning financial plans with long-term stakeholder value [7][30] - The Genco strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new large load customers with speed and flexibility, enhancing the competitive position [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of customer affordability and the proactive approach to economic development, ensuring reliability and sustainability [11][12] - The company is confident in its ability to execute large-scale construction projects and is focused on operational excellence to meet growing customer needs [10][36] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan to $28 billion, which includes $7 billion for data center investments, marking one of the largest investment cycles in its history [26][27] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity, reinforcing the capital structure for Genco [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path for executing future negotiations based on this model [39][41] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [43][44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25-$0.45 range reflects contributions from the current customer, with potential upside from additional strategic negotiations [49][50] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for Genco? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity and debt, supporting the full $28 billion of capital expenditures [52][53] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within Genco? - The targeted return for Genco is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support development [77][79] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures will occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 [6][22] - The 2026 consolidated EPS guidance is announced to be $2.02 to $2.07, reflecting strong financial commitments and growth potential [6][26] - The adjusted EPS trajectory shows an increase from $1.37 in 2021 to a projected $1.88 in 2025, representing an 8.2% CAGR over five years [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured approval for the GenCo model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, reinforcing its regulatory foundation [5][8] - The GenCo investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [19][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing its regulatory agenda in Ohio and Indiana, with a Pennsylvania rate case expected to conclude by year-end [8][9] - Columbia Gas of Virginia's partnership with Eli Lilly for a $5 billion manufacturing facility is highlighted as a proactive economic development initiative [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 6% to 8% annual adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030 and an 8% to 9% CAGR for consolidated business through 2033 [5][27] - Investments in AI-driven operational efficiencies are emphasized to enhance customer affordability and service quality [7][10] - The GenCo strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new large load customers with speed and flexibility [10][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in the pipeline of projects and the ability to execute on new customer agreements, highlighting a robust growth strategy [33] - The focus remains on customer affordability and operational excellence, with a commitment to minimizing the financial impact of investments on customers [11][28] Other Important Information - The company has introduced a refreshed five-year capital expenditure plan of $28 billion, which includes $7 billion for data center investments [23][24] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners is expected to contribute $1.5 billion in equity, reinforcing the capital structure [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is described as a very large investment-grade data center customer, with a new business model being unlocked for future negotiations [35][36] Question: What is the return profile or capital structure assumptions within the GenCo? - The targeted return for GenCo is expected to exceed NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support customer needs [64][65] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The range reflects contributions from multiple customers, with the current customer fitting within that range, and additional customers could push towards the higher end [43][44] Question: What protections are in place for the contracts? - The contracts include thoughtful risk management provisions, cost-sharing arrangements, and a fixed-rate structure to mitigate risks [60][61] Question: How does the timing of capital investment align with earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings ramping up as customers begin to utilize the infrastructure [66][67]

Core Insights - NiSource Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share (EPS) of 19 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 5% and down by a penny from the previous year [1] - The company’s total revenues reached $1.28 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 billion by 8.6% and increasing 18.3% year-over-year [2][9] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses were $0.98 billion, up 13.7% from $0.86 billion in the prior-year quarter [3] - Operating income increased to $297.5 million, a rise of 36.3% from $218.3 million in the previous year [3] - Net interest expenses rose to $179.8 million, up 33.6% from $134.6 million in the prior-year quarter [3] Sales and Distribution - Total gas distribution in Sales and Transportation (excluding weather) was 100.2 Million British Thermal Units per day (MMDth), up 3.5% from 96.8 MMDth in the prior-year quarter [4] - Total electric sales (excluding weather) were recorded at 4,621.6 gigawatt-hours (GWh), an increase of 0.8% from 4,587.1 GWh in the prior-year quarter [4] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $95 million, down from $156.6 million as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Long-term debts as of September 30, 2025, were $14.47 billion, compared to $12.07 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash flows from operating activities in the first nine months of 2025 were $1.65 billion, up from $1.24 billion in the same period of 2024 [5] Liquidity and Guidance - NiSource's liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was nearly $3 billion, sufficient to meet near-term obligations [6] - The company reaffirmed 2025 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $1.85-$1.89 per share and expects 2026 non-GAAP earnings in the range of $2.02-$2.07 [7] - NiSource anticipates an earnings CAGR of 6-8% through 2030 [7] Capital Expenditure - The company plans a capital expenditure of $28 billion for the 2026-2030 period, which is nearly $8.6 billion higher than the previous five-year plan, primarily driven by $7 billion in strategic investments for data centers [8][9]

Financial Performance & Guidance - The company reaffirmed the upper half of its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at $1.85-$1.89 and initiated 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 [16] - The company is targeting an annual base plan adjusted EPS growth of 6%-8% from 2026-2030 and a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 8%-9% from 2026-2033 [12] - The company anticipates Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt to be 14%-16% annually through 2030 [12] Capital Investment & Rate Base - The company increased its enterprise capital plan to $28.0 billion for 2026-2030, representing an approximate 45% increase from the prior 5-year plan [16] - The company plans for base plan capital investments of $21.0 billion from 2026-2030 and approximately $7.0 billion in data center capital investment, supporting a 9%-11% consolidated Rate Base CAGR from 2026-2033 [16] - The company's year-end 2024 regulated electric and gas rate base was $21.3 billion [12] Data Center Strategy & GenCo - The company established a commercial partnership with a large investment-grade data center customer to power 3 GW of generation capacity in Northern Indiana [23] - The company's GenCo capital investment is projected to be approximately $7.0 billion [12] - The company is in strategic negotiations for an additional 1-3 GW of load [12] Third Quarter 2025 Results - The company's GAAP net income available to common shareholders for the third quarter of 2025 was $94.7 million, compared to $85.7 million in the third quarter of 2024 [40] - The company's adjusted net income available to common shareholders for the third quarter of 2025 was $91.8 million, compared to $89.9 million in the third quarter of 2024 [40]

Core Insights - NiSource reported quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, representing a -5.00% earnings surprise [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.27 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.33% and up from $1.08 billion a year ago [2] - NiSource shares have increased approximately 18% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, NiSource has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.49 on revenues of $1.64 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.88 on revenues of $6.26 billion [7] Market Outlook - The company's earnings outlook and estimate revisions trend were favorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The Utility - Electric Power industry, to which NiSource belongs, is currently in the top 21% of Zacks industries, suggesting a positive industry outlook [8]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, NiSource reported total operating revenues of $1,273.1 million, a 18.3% increase from $1,076.3 million in the same period of 2024[19]. - Customer revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached $4,636.2 million, up 23.9% from $3,743.2 million in 2024[19]. - Operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $297.5 million, representing a 36.3% increase compared to $218.3 million in 2024[19]. - Net income attributable to NiSource for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $671.7 million, a 25.9% increase from $536.5 million in 2024[19]. - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $0.20, compared to $0.19 in the same period of 2024[19]. - Comprehensive income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $122.2 million, compared to $101.0 million in 2024[20]. - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $734.2 million, up from $600.4 million in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 22.3%[24]. - The total operating revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,275.5 million, an increase from $1,079.6 million in the same period of 2024, representing an 18.1% growth[128][130]. - Operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $284.7 million, compared to $212.5 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a 34% increase[128][130]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total operating revenue reached $4,746.5 million, up from $3,877.1 million in 2024, marking a 22.4% increase[133]. Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, amounted to $34,402.9 million, an increase from $31,788.1 million at the end of 2024[22]. - Total stockholders' equity increased to $11,241.8 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $10,668.3 million at the end of 2024[23]. - The balance of additional paid-in capital increased to $9,798.3 million as of September 30, 2025, from $9,521.5 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of about 2.9%[26]. - The company’s retained deficit improved to $(572.0) million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $(711.7) million at the end of 2024, indicating a reduction of approximately 19.6%[26]. - The balance of common stock increased from 451,345 thousand shares as of December 31, 2023, to 470,670 thousand shares as of September 30, 2024[28]. - The fair value of long-term debt as of September 30, 2025, was estimated at $14,050.3 million, compared to a carrying amount of $14,503.4 million[94]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Net cash flows from operating activities reached $1,649.7 million, compared to $1,241.7 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 32.8%[24]. - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $1,936.0 million, an increase from $1,854.0 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 4.4%[24]. - The company paid dividends of $396.4 million on common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $357.0 million in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 11.0%[24]. - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of $95.0 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $156.6 million at the end of 2024[215]. Debt and Financing - Long-term debt, excluding amounts due within one year, rose to $14,472.1 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $12,074.5 million at the end of 2024[23]. - Proceeds from the issuance of long-term debt amounted to $2,362.0 million, compared to $2,229.6 million in 2024, showing an increase of about 5.9%[24]. - The company had $1,060.0 million of commercial paper outstanding as of September 30, 2025, with a weighted-average interest rate of 4.40%[64]. - The revolving credit facility has a program limit of $1.85 billion, with no outstanding borrowings as of September 30, 2025[63]. - NiSource's credit ratings remain stable, with S&P rating at BBB+, Moody's at Baa2, and Fitch at BBB as of September 30, 2025[216]. Operational Highlights - The Columbia Operations segment reported residential gas distribution revenues of $328.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $296.9 million in the same period of 2024, marking an increase of approximately 10.5%[40]. - NIPSCO Operations generated electric service revenues of $633.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from $515.1 million in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of about 22.9%[40]. - The company executed a forward sale agreement in February 2025, settling for $80.0 million based on a net price of $40.02 per share[57]. - NIPSCO plans to retire remaining coal-fired electric generation by 2028, transitioning to a balanced mix of low- or zero-emission electric generation[155]. - NIPSCO has placed into service renewable projects totaling 3,051 MW of nameplate capacity since 2020, with additional projects expected to be operational between 2025 and 2027[194]. Regulatory and Compliance - The company is evaluating the impacts of recent accounting pronouncements on its financial disclosures and policies[33]. - The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission approved a Joint Stipulation and Settlement Agreement on June 26, 2025, which implemented new rates in multiple steps starting July 2025[76]. - NIPSCO Gas filed for a CPCN on April 21, 2025, seeking recovery of $244.1 million related to federally mandated Pipeline Safety IV Compliance Plan costs, which was granted on October 22, 2025[211]. - The company recorded a liability of $84.6 million for environmental remediation as of September 30, 2025, compared to $91.8 million as of December 31, 2024[112]. Employee and Talent Management - Increased competition for talent has led to higher costs for attracting and retaining employees, prompting NIPSCO to enhance its internal human capital programs[162].

Financial Performance - NiSource reported a net income of $94.7 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, for Q3 2025, compared to $85.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, in Q3 2024, representing a 10.5% increase in net income year-over-year [2]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, NiSource's net income was $671.7 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, up from $515.8 million, or $1.14 per diluted share, in the same period of 2024, marking a 30.3% increase [2]. - Non-GAAP adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $91.8 million, or $0.19 per adjusted EPS, compared to $89.9 million, or $0.20 per adjusted EPS, in Q3 2024 [3]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, non-GAAP adjusted net income was $656.0 million, or $1.38 per adjusted EPS, compared to $567.4 million, or $1.26 per adjusted EPS, in the same period of 2024, reflecting a 16.0% increase [3]. Guidance and Growth Projections - NiSource reaffirmed its 2025 non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.85-$1.89 and introduced a 2026 guidance of $2.02-$2.07 [4]. - The company extended its base capital plan to 2030, with expected annual non-GAAP adjusted EPS growth of 6%-8%, driven by $21.0 billion in capital expenditures [4]. - The expected consolidated non-GAAP adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be 8%-9% from 2026 through 2033 [4]. Capital Expenditure Plans - NiSource announced a consolidated capital expenditure plan of $28.0 billion, which is approximately $8.6 billion more than the previous five-year plan, including nearly $7.0 billion for strategic data center investments [3]. Customer Commitment - NiSource serves approximately 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across six states, emphasizing its commitment to delivering reliable energy [9]. - The company aims to protect customers from the costs of large-load development while ensuring affordability remains central to its strategy [5].

Core Viewpoint - NiSource Inc. is expected to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, with a prior earnings surprise of 4.76% in the last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Q3 Performance - The approval of the Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC Electric rate case and the Columbia Gas of Virginia rate case is anticipated to positively influence NiSource's performance in Q3 [2] - Increased investments in data center developments and infrastructure to support higher demand are expected to contribute positively to earnings [3] - However, higher operation and maintenance expenses may partially offset these positive impacts [3] Q3 Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is 19 cents per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% [4] - Revenue is estimated at $1.15 billion, indicating a 6.9% increase from the previous year [4][8] Earnings Prediction - The company's Earnings ESP is +8.11%, suggesting a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5] - NiSource currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position [6] Other Industry Players - Xcel Energy, Inc. is also expected to report on October 30, with an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [7] - Eversource Energy is set to report on November 4, with an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [9] - Duke Energy will report on November 7, with an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [10]

Core Insights - NiSource is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 6.83% [1][5] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, NiSource reported earnings of $0.22 per share against an expectation of $0.21, resulting in a surprise of 4.76% [2] - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.90 per share, while the actual earnings were $0.98 per share, leading to a surprise of 8.89% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for NiSource have been trending higher, influenced by its history of earnings surprises [5] - The company has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +8.11%, indicating that analysts are optimistic about its earnings prospects [8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a strong possibility of another earnings beat in the upcoming report [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] Future Outlook - NiSource's next earnings report is anticipated to be released on October 29, 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending September 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on October 29, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for NiSource's quarterly earnings is $0.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 15%, while revenues are projected to be $1.15 billion, representing a 6.9% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial projections during this period [4]. - NiSource's Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, NiSource was expected to post earnings of $0.21 per share but exceeded this with actual earnings of $0.22, resulting in a surprise of +4.76% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, NiSource has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates on all occasions [14]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, Edison International (EIX) is expected to report earnings of $1.52 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of +0.7%, with revenues projected at $5.2 billion, unchanged from the previous year [18][19]. - Edison International's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.5% higher in the last 30 days, and with a higher Most Accurate Estimate, it has an Earnings ESP of +7.15%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19][20].