Core Viewpoint - NiSource Inc. (NI) is actively modernizing its infrastructure to enhance operational reliability and is transitioning from coal-based units to clean energy assets, making it a strong investment choice in the Utility-Electric Power industry [1] Growth Outlook & Surprise History - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NI's 2026 earnings per share (EPS) is $2.04, indicating an 8.2% year-over-year growth [2] - The revenue estimate for 2026 is $6.56 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year improvement [2] - NI's long-term earnings growth rate is projected at 7.9% [2] - The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.23% [2] Dividend History - NI has consistently increased shareholder value through dividends, currently paying a quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share, which annualizes to $1.12 [3] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.70%, outperforming the S&P 500 composite average of 1.07% [3] Capital Investment Focus - NI's capital investment plan anticipates expenditures of $26.4 billion to $28.4 billion for the period 2026-2030 [4] - The focus of this investment includes the development of two 1,300-megawatt natural gas-fired turbines, the addition of 400 megawatts of new battery storage, and upgrades to critical transmission infrastructure [4] - These investments aim to meet rising demand from data centers, enhance system reliability, and improve customer satisfaction [4] Overview of Debt Structure - NI's total debt to capital ratio is 58.37%, which is better than the industry average of 61.13% [5] - The company's capital structure is more efficient due to lower reliance on debt compared to industry peers [5] Solvency Ratio - NI's times interest earned (TIE) ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 3.0, indicating effective management of long-term debt obligations [6] Share Price Performance - Over the past year, NI shares have increased by 15.3%, although this is below the industry's growth of 21.9% [9]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) shares have increased by approximately 17% over the past year, driven by positive sentiment regarding power demand from AI data center developments [1] - However, shares have recently declined by about 7% from their peak levels due to rising concerns [1] Group 1 - The company has experienced a solid performance in the stock market, attributed to optimism surrounding the AI sector [1] - The recent pullback in share price indicates potential market volatility or changing investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) shares have increased by approximately 17% over the past year, driven by positive sentiment regarding power demand from AI data center developments [1] - However, shares have recently declined by about 7% from their peak levels due to rising concerns [1] Group 1 - The company has experienced a solid performance in the stock market, attributed to optimism surrounding the growth in power demand [1] - The recent pullback in share price indicates potential market volatility or changing investor sentiment [1]

Company Overview - NiSource Inc. has a market capitalization of $19.8 billion and operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility through its Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations segments [1] - The company delivers natural gas to approximately 2.4 million customers and generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to about 0.5 million customers in northern Indiana [2] Stock Performance - NiSource's shares have decreased by 7.7% from its 52-week high of $44.88, while the broader S&P 500 Index has gained 3.7% over the same period [3] - Year-to-date, NI stock is up 12.7%, underperforming the S&P 500's 16.1% rise, but has increased 13.4% over the past 52 weeks, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 12.8% return [4] Financial Results - In Q3 2025, NiSource reported revenue of $1.27 billion, which was better than expected, but its stock fell by 2.1% due to an adjusted EPS of $0.19 that missed consensus estimates and declined from $0.20 in the prior-year quarter [5] - The company announced a significant capital expenditure plan of $28 billion, representing a 45% increase over the previous plan, which may have contributed to investor caution [5] Analyst Ratings - Despite the stock's underperformance, analysts maintain a strong optimism for NiSource, with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" from 15 analysts and a mean price target of $46.43, indicating a potential upside of 12.1% from current levels [6]

Core Insights - NiSource Inc. (NI) is focused on modernizing its infrastructure and transitioning from coal-based units to clean energy assets, making it a strong investment in the Utility-Electric Power industry [1] Growth Outlook & Surprise History - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NI's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is $1.88, indicating a year-over-year growth of 7.43% [2] - The revenue estimate for 2025 is $6.26 billion, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 14.70% [2] - NI's long-term earnings growth rate is projected at 7.93% [2] - The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.23% [2] Dividend History - NI has consistently increased shareholder value through dividends, currently paying a quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share, leading to an annualized dividend of $1.12 [3] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.56%, outperforming the S&P 500 composite average of 1.09% [3] Capital Investment Focus - NI's capital investment plan anticipates expenditures between $26.4 billion and $28.4 billion for the period of 2026-2030 [4] - Strategic investments include the development of two 1,300-megawatt natural gas-fired turbines, 400 megawatts of new battery storage, and upgrades to critical transmission infrastructure [5] Debt Structure - NI's total debt to capital ratio is 58.37%, which is better than the industry average of 59.51% [6] - The company's capital structure is more efficient due to lower reliance on debt [6] Solvency Ratio - NI's times interest earned (TIE) ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 3.0, indicating strong capability to meet long-term debt obligations [7] Share Price Performance - Over the past year, NI's shares have increased by 14.4%, although this lags behind the industry's growth of 16.2% [10]

Core Insights - NIPSCO Generation plans to construct up to 3 GW of gas-fired generation and battery storage to support Amazon data centers, with an estimated investment of approximately $7 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - GenCo will build two 1.3-GW gas-fired power plants and a 400-MW, 4-hour battery storage system for the data centers, while NIPSCO anticipates a non-data center load of about 2.3 GW by 2028 [2]. - The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approved the GenCo framework to ensure existing customers do not bear the costs of infrastructure for large customers like Amazon [3]. - NIPSCO is expected to start providing power to Amazon data centers by January 1, 2027, with capacity deliveries increasing to 2.4 GW by the end of 2032 [6]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The 15-year agreement with Amazon is projected to generate around $1 billion in savings for NIPSCO's ratepayers, translating to approximately $7 in monthly savings for residential customers [4]. - NIPSCO and GenCo have requested IURC approval for a "special contract" and a power purchase agreement (PPA) related to the arrangement with Amazon [5][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Operations - NIPSCO will construct, own, and operate the necessary transmission infrastructure for the Amazon data centers, with costs kept separate from the utility's rate base [8].

Core Viewpoint - The utility sector is experiencing a significant earnings growth, driven by new contracts with data center providers, which may lead to lower consumer bills rather than higher costs [2][4][6]. Group 1: Earnings Growth and Utility Contracts - The utility sector is witnessing the longest run in earnings growth in its history, with sales and volumetric growth on the rise [2][3]. - A notable contract in Northern Indiana will result in a billion-dollar refund to consumers over a decade, showcasing a shift in the narrative around utility costs [6][7]. - Companies like NiSource are expected to double their earnings in less than a decade, with projections indicating earnings could reach nearly four dollars by 2033 [8][9]. Group 2: Data Center Impact - Data center providers, such as Amazon and Microsoft, are entering into contracts that significantly increase their energy payments, which may not be reflected in consumer bills [5][9]. - The pricing for energy from data centers can be about ten times higher than what consumers pay, indicating a substantial revenue stream for utilities [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Positioning - Utilities in the Midwest, including Alliant and Evergy, are well-positioned to maintain customer bills while benefiting from long-term contracts that extend into the 2030s [10][11]. - The energy landscape is shifting towards a combination of natural gas and renewables, making energy competitive and sustainable [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to ensure proper functionality and access to content [1] Group 1 - The article emphasizes that users may face access issues if ad-blockers are enabled, suggesting the need to disable them for a better experience [1]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, reflecting a growth trajectory [8][29] - The adjusted EPS growth rate for the base business is projected at 6% to 8% annually through 2030, with a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 8% to 9% through 2033 [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured approval for the GenCo model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, enhancing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The GenCo investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][26] - The company is advancing its AI and digital strategy, achieving sustained field productivity uplifts of over 20% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively pursuing large load customers, with a recent contract with a significant investment-grade data center customer [13][20] - The partnership with Columbia Gas of Virginia to deliver natural gas to Eli Lilly's new $5 billion facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs [11][12] - The company is focused on economic development initiatives that expand the customer base and promote efficient distribution of fixed costs [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver safe, reliable energy while capitalizing on emerging data center opportunities, with a focus on customer affordability [5][14] - The GenCo strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new customers with speed and flexibility, reinforcing the company's competitive position [12][36] - The company is committed to minimizing the financial impact of safety and reliability investments on customers, with a focus on operational excellence [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the pipeline of opportunities, with negotiations for an additional 1 to 3 gigawatts of projects ongoing [37] - The company is focused on maintaining affordability and reliability, with a positive relationship with the Indiana governor's office regarding economic development opportunities [67] - Management highlighted the importance of thoughtful risk management provisions in contracts to protect financial integrity [24][74] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan, increasing the base capital plan to $21 billion, with an additional $7 billion for data center investments [26][27] - The company is committed to a 14% to 16% FFO to debt ratio in all years of its plan, with a downgrade threshold of 13% [44][31] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity to support current initiatives and future growth opportunities [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a very large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path towards executing additional contracts based on this model [41][42] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25 to $0.45 range reflects contributions from multiple customers, with the potential for additional customers to push towards the higher end of that range [50][51] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for GenCo? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity, debt, and non-controlling interest associated with minority interest investors [52] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within GenCo? - The targeted return for GenCo is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support customer needs [79][80] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]