Core Insights - NiSource Inc. is valued at a market cap of $19.4 billion and operates as an energy holding company providing natural gas and electricity services [1] - The company is heavily investing in modernizing infrastructure and transitioning to cleaner energy sources, which positions it for long-term growth [2] Company Overview - NiSource is classified as a large-cap stock due to its market cap exceeding $10 billion, highlighting its size and influence in the regulated gas industry [2] - The company benefits from being a fully regulated utility, ensuring stable and predictable cash flows [2] Financial Performance - In Q2, NiSource reported an 18.3% year-over-year increase in operating revenue to $1.3 billion, with adjusted EPS growing 4.8% to $0.22, surpassing consensus estimates [5] - The company narrowed its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of the $1.85 to $1.89 range, indicating confidence in achieving financial targets [5] Stock Performance - NiSource's shares are currently trading 5.1% below their 52-week high of $43.51, reached on August 4 [3] - Over the past three months, shares have gained 4.5%, underperforming the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLU) 5.5% return [3] - Year-to-date, shares are up 12.4%, slightly lagging behind XLU's 12.6% increase [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, NiSource has rallied 21.2%, outperforming XLU's 6.4% rise [4] - Despite positive earnings results, shares fell 2.5% on the day of the Q2 earnings release [5]

Group 1 - NiSource shares have increased by approximately 14% over the past year due to rising optimism regarding data center electricity demand [1] - Currently, NiSource shares are down nearly 10% from their recent highs, primarily due to escalating political risks [1] Group 2 - The company has a history of making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories to achieve outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1]

Group 1 - NiSource (NYSE: NI) shares have increased approximately 14% over the past year due to rising optimism regarding data center electricity demand [1] - Currently, NiSource shares are down nearly 10% from their recent highs, primarily due to escalating political risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [1][2]. - Changes in future earnings potential, reflected in earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for NiSource indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, suggesting that investors may push the stock price higher [5][10]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on four factors related to earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance of Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7][9]. - NiSource's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a superior earnings estimate revision feature and potential for market-beating returns [10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions for NiSource - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, NiSource is expected to earn $1.88 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but analysts have raised their estimates by 0.1% over the past three months [8].

Industry Overview - The Utility – Electric Power industry is transitioning to cleaner fuel sources and reducing carbon emissions, supported by government policies promoting sustainable power generation [1] - Utilities are investing in grid upgrades and improving transmission and distribution infrastructure to enhance resilience against severe weather events [1][3] - The industry is experiencing stable demand across economic cycles, with increased electricity consumption during extreme weather [3] Trends Impacting the Industry - Interest rates have declined from 5.25-5.50% to 4.25-4.50%, benefiting capital-intensive utilities by lowering borrowing costs for infrastructure investments [4] - Electricity production is projected to increase by 2.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, reaching 4,340 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by demand from commercial and industrial sectors [5] - The share of electricity generation from renewable sources is expected to rise from 23% in 2024 to 26% in 2026, aided by the Inflation Reduction Act [6] Company Highlights - CenterPoint Energy Inc. plans to invest $53 billion over the next 10 years to expand operations and meet rising electricity demand [19] - Fortis Inc. expects to invest $26 billion from 2025 to 2029, focusing on strengthening regulated electric and gas operations [23] - NiSource Inc. projects an investment of $19.4 billion for 2025-2029 to enhance its existing operations [27] Financial Performance and Valuation - The Utility Electric Power industry has gained 16.9% over the past 12 months, outperforming its sector's 14.2% increase but lagging behind the S&P 500's 22.7% gain [10] - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 14.37X, lower than the S&P 500's 17.02X and the Utility sector's 15.75X [13] - Long-term earnings growth estimates for CenterPoint Energy, Fortis, and NiSource are 7.8%, 5.13%, and 7.88% respectively, with respective dividend yields of 2.3%, 3.53%, and 2.58% [20][24][28]

Core Insights - NiSource Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share (EPS) of 22 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents by 4.8% and up from 21 cents in the prior-year quarter [1][9] - Total revenues reached $1.28 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15 billion by 11.3% and increasing 18.3% from $1.08 billion in the same quarter last year [2][9] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses were $1.02 billion, a rise of 20.3% from $0.85 billion in the prior-year quarter [3] - Operating income was reported at $262.9 million, up 10.9% from $237 million a year ago [3] - Net interest expenses increased to $139.1 million, up 7.6% from $129.3 million in the previous year [3] Sales and Distribution Metrics - Total gas distribution in Sales and Transportation (excluding weather) was 114.4 Million British Thermal Units per day (MMDth), down 2.8% from 117.7 MMDth in the prior-year quarter [4] - Total electric sales (excluding weather) were 3,994.2 gigawatt-hours (GWh), an increase of 0.5% from 3,974.5 GWh in the same quarter last year [4] Liquidity and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2025, were $0.34 billion, up from $0.157 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Long-term debts as of June 30, 2025, were $14.47 billion, compared to $12.07 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash flows from operating activities in the first half of 2025 were $1.18 billion, compared to $0.9 billion in the first half of 2024 [5] Guidance and Future Outlook - The company reaffirmed its 2025 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $1.85-$1.89 per share, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.88 per share [7][9] - NiSource expects an earnings CAGR of 6-8% through 2029 and plans capital expenditures of $19.4 billion for the 2025-2029 period [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $0.22, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.19, which is an increase of $0.13 from the same period last year [8][24]. - The 2025 adjusted EPS guidance has been narrowed to the upper half of the previously stated range of $1.85 to $1.89 [9][25]. - The company is reaffirming long-term financial commitments, targeting 6% to 8% annual adjusted EPS growth and 8% to 10% rate base growth through 2029 [25][29]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong performance was noted in both the NIPSCO and Columbia segments, which continue to outperform expectations [24]. - The operational excellence initiatives, including Project Apollo and WAM, have enabled consistent and high-quality results across the business [24]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer growth in the electric business was nearly 1% and 0.6% in the gas business, both surpassing forecasts [26]. - The metro growth in Columbus, Ohio was reported to be 38% higher than the national average last year, indicating strong economic tailwinds [26]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined capital deployment, operational excellence, and constructive regulatory relationships to drive value [6][7]. - The regulatory agenda has seen progress with approved rate cases in Virginia and Indiana, supporting significant revenue increases and investments [12][13]. - The company is advancing initiatives to support broader economic development, including revitalizing infrastructure to attract new industrial customers [14][15]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for data centers in Northern Indiana and emphasized a disciplined approach to executing opportunities [32][33]. - The company remains focused on maximizing opportunities for stakeholders while ensuring financial integrity [32][33]. - The outlook for 2025 is positive, with expectations to deliver strong financial results and continued growth [28][29]. Other Important Information - The company has successfully issued $1.65 billion of senior notes to meet 2025 funding needs while maintaining a strong credit profile [27]. - The company is exploring AI capabilities to enhance operational efficiency and improve service delivery [9][10]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about the data center opportunity, especially in the NISCO territory? - Management highlighted a strong demand for data centers in Northern Indiana and emphasized a disciplined approach to executing this opportunity while protecting existing customers [32][33]. Question: Can you provide an update on the Genco operating model and its timeline? - Management confirmed that the Genco declination process is moving forward, with an order expected by the third quarter of this year [36][64]. Question: How does the company plan to finance the Genco structure? - Management indicated that flexibility in financing will be retained, evaluating options once customer contracts are in place [57][58]. Question: What is the status of the coal plant retirements? - The company plans to retire the Schaeffer plant by the end of the year but will work closely with state officials to align with any new directives [54]. Question: Can you clarify the timeline for converting the Genco opportunity into reality? - Management reiterated that they are on track to execute the Genco opportunity in 2025 [76].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - NiSource reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $0.22, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.19, which is an increase of $0.13 from the same period last year [6][24] - The company narrowed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of the previously stated range of $1.85 to $1.89 [7][25] - The company reaffirmed long-term financial commitments, projecting 6% to 8% annual adjusted EPS growth and 8% to 10% rate base growth through 2029 [25][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong performance was noted in both the NIPSCO and Columbia segments, which continue to outperform expectations [24] - The operational excellence initiatives, including Project Apollo and WAM, have enabled consistent and high-quality results across the business [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer growth was observed at nearly 1% in the electric business and 0.6% in the gas business, both surpassing forecasts [26] - Metro growth in Columbus, Ohio was reported to be 38% higher than the national average last year, indicating strong economic tailwinds [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - NiSource's strategy focuses on disciplined capital deployment, operational excellence, and fostering constructive regulatory relationships [5][6] - The company is advancing its internal AI capabilities to enhance operational efficiency and create a sustainable competitive edge [7][8] - Regulatory achievements include a $40.7 million revenue increase in Virginia and a $257 million revenue uplift in Indiana, reinforcing stakeholder relationships [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for data centers in Northern Indiana and emphasized a disciplined approach to executing this opportunity [34][35] - The company remains focused on maximizing opportunities for stakeholders, including existing customers and communities, while maintaining financial integrity [35][16] Other Important Information - NiSource's five-year capital plan is valued at $19.4 billion, with 48% allocated to gas system hardening [22] - The company is actively engaging in commercial development of over $2 billion in identified upside projects [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is NiSource thinking about the data center opportunity in NIPSCO territory? - Management highlighted strong demand for data centers and emphasized a disciplined approach to execution, ensuring existing customers are protected while serving new ones [34][35] Question: How do the Genco application and counterparty negotiations relate to each other? - Management clarified that the Genco declination process and counterparty negotiations are separate but ongoing, with confidence in achieving a positive outcome [39][40] Question: What is the status of coal plant retirements and their impact on supply? - Management confirmed plans to retire the Schaeffer plant by the end of the year while working closely with state officials to align on capacity needs [58][59] Question: How does the financing strategy relate to the Genco structure? - Management indicated flexibility in financing strategies and emphasized the importance of strengthening the balance sheet to support future operations [62][64] Question: What is the timeline for the Genco declination process? - Management confirmed that all final filings are due soon, with an order expected by the end of the third quarter [78]

Financial Performance and Guidance - The company reaffirms its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85-$1.89, narrowing to the upper half of the range[13] - The company projects an annual adjusted EPS growth of 6%-8% from 2025-2029[9, 13] - The company targets an annual FFO/Debt of 14%-16% through 2029[9, 13] - The company anticipates a total shareholder return of 9%-11% annually[9] Capital Investment and Rate Base - The company plans a base capital investment of $19.4 billion from 2025-2029, supporting an 8%-10% rate base growth[9, 13] - The company estimates its year-end 2024 regulated electric and gas rate base to be $21.3 billion[9] - The company's capital investments are allocated across Gas System Hardening (~48%), Electric System Modernization (~17%), Electric Generation (~14%), Growth (~11%), and IT & Facilities (~10%)[42] Second Quarter 2025 Results - The company's GAAP net income available to common shareholders for the second quarter of 2025 was $102.2 million, compared to $85.8 million in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of $16.4 million[27] - The company's adjusted net income available to common shareholders for the second quarter of 2025 was $101.9 million, compared to $94.7 million in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of $7.2 million[27] - The company's GAAP diluted earnings per share for the second quarter of 2025 was $0.22, compared to $0.19 in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of $0.03[27]

Core Viewpoint - NiSource (NI) reported quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, and showing an increase from $0.21 per share a year ago, indicating a positive earnings surprise of +4.76% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.28 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.51%, compared to $1.08 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, NiSource has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - NiSource shares have increased approximately 16.7% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 7.1% [3] Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for assessing future stock performance, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.17 on $1.14 billion in revenues for the upcoming quarter and $1.88 on $6 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Rank for NiSource is currently 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for the stock to outperform the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Utility - Electric Power industry, to which NiSource belongs, is currently in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable environment for stock performance [8]