诺基亚预计全年调整后运营利润16亿-21亿欧元，分析师预期20.8亿欧元。 ...

市场消息：诺基亚下调2025年运营利润指引。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nokia has lowered its 2025 operating profit guidance due to adverse currency fluctuations and tariff impacts, adjusting the range from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.4 billion down to EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 2.1 billion [2][4][7] Financial Guidance Update - The updated comparable operating profit outlook for 2025 is now EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 2.1 billion, down from the previous range of EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.4 billion [4][7] - Free cash flow conversion guidance remains unchanged at 50% to 80% from comparable operating profit [4] - The new guidance is based on a EUR:USD exchange rate of 1.17, compared to the previous rate of 1.04 used in January [2][4] Impact of External Factors - Currency fluctuations, particularly the weaker USD, are expected to have a negative impact of approximately EUR 230 million on the 2025 outlook, which includes EUR 140 million operationally and EUR 90 million from non-cash venture fund currency revaluations [3] - The current tariff landscape is anticipated to affect full year operating profit by EUR 50 million to EUR 80 million [3] Preliminary Q2 Financials - For the second quarter, Nokia expects to report net sales of approximately EUR 4.55 billion and a comparable operating profit of EUR 300 million, which includes a negative impact of EUR 50 million from its venture funds primarily related to currency [5][7] - The official release of the second quarter and half year 2025 financial results is scheduled for July 24, 2025 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Nokia has lowered its 2025 operating profit guidance due to adverse currency fluctuations and tariff impacts, adjusting the range from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.4 billion down to EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 2.1 billion [2][8]. Financial Guidance Update - The updated comparable operating profit outlook for 2025 is now EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 2.1 billion, down from the previous range of EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.4 billion [4][8]. - The guidance for free cash flow conversion from comparable operating profit remains unchanged at 50% to 80% [4]. - The new guidance is based on a EUR:USD exchange rate of 1.17, compared to the previous rate of 1.04 used in January [2][4]. Impact of External Factors - Currency fluctuations, particularly the weaker USD, are expected to have a negative impact of approximately EUR 230 million on the operating profit, which includes EUR 140 million operationally and EUR 90 million from non-cash venture fund currency revaluations [3]. - The current tariff landscape is anticipated to further impact the full year operating profit by EUR 50 million to EUR 80 million [3]. Preliminary Financial Results - For the second quarter, Nokia expects to report net sales of approximately EUR 4.55 billion and a comparable operating profit of EUR 300 million, which includes a negative impact of EUR 50 million from its venture funds primarily related to currency [5][8]. - The official release of the second quarter and half-year 2025 financial results is scheduled for July 24, 2025 [5].

Core Points - HMD, a Finnish mobile brand known for its association with Nokia, has announced a significant reduction in its operations in the U.S., effectively exiting the market [1][3][34] - The company has struggled to adapt to the competitive smartphone market, particularly against established players like Apple and Samsung, and has primarily focused on low to mid-range devices [18][30][33] Company Background - HMD Global Oy was formed after Nokia's mobile division was sold to Microsoft, with HMD acquiring the rights to use the Nokia brand [11][12][15] - Despite the legacy of Nokia, HMD has failed to make a significant impact in the smartphone market since its inception in 2016 [32][34] Market Challenges - HMD's strategy has been focused on the sub-$400 market, which is highly competitive and has limited profit margins [18][19] - The company has faced challenges in the U.S. market due to the dominance of major carriers and the high costs associated with gaining market access [28][29] Future Strategy - HMD plans to pivot towards three strategic pillars: "family," "security," and "microfinancing," targeting emerging markets and enterprise solutions [35][40] - The company has already launched products aimed at family safety and is looking to expand into enterprise markets with a focus on security [36][38] Competitive Landscape - HMD's exit from the U.S. market highlights its inability to compete effectively against larger brands and the challenges posed by established ecosystems [30][33][34] - The company faces significant competition from brands like Transsion in emerging markets, which could hinder its growth plans [41]

Core Insights - The report titled "Natural Disaster Management - Company Evaluation Report, 2024" provides a comprehensive analysis of the global market for natural disaster management, evaluating over 100 companies and identifying the top 14 as quadrant leaders [1][2]. Industry Overview - Natural disaster management has shifted from reactive to proactive, technology-driven strategies due to increasing climate-related events and urbanization, integrating technologies such as IoT, AI, GIS, and remote sensing [3][4]. - The approach to disaster management encompasses four phases: preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation, focusing on planning, immediate actions, restoration, and long-term risk reduction [3][4]. Technological Advancements - Data-driven technologies are crucial for enhancing preparedness and response, with real-time monitoring improving situational awareness and AI supporting predictive analytics [4]. - Key trends include integrated multi-hazard early warning systems, personalized risk assessments, and resilient infrastructure development [4]. Competitive Landscape - The 360 Quadrant evaluates companies based on revenue, geographic presence, growth strategies, and sales strategies, with criteria including product footprint by component, application, end user, and communication system [5]. - Key players in the market include NEC, Hexagon, Nokia, Xylem, Esri, and others, each contributing unique technologies and solutions to disaster management [6][7][8][10]. Market Dynamics - The market is driven by the escalating frequency of climate-related disasters, technological advancements in IoT and AI, and increased government initiatives [12]. - Opportunities exist in the expansion of remote sensing technologies and the development of AI-powered predictive analytics [12]. Company Profiles - NEC Corporation is recognized for integrating AI and IoT in disaster management solutions, enhancing collaboration between governments and enterprises [7]. - Hexagon AB excels in geospatial solutions, supporting effective risk assessment and resource allocation [8][9]. - Nokia provides critical communication infrastructure and drone-based solutions for damage assessment, reinforcing its role in advanced disaster management systems [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Zacks Rank and its focus on earnings estimates and revisions to identify strong stocks, while also acknowledging that investors have their own strategies [1] - Value investing is highlighted as a preferred method for finding strong stocks, utilizing fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to identify undervalued stocks [2] Company Analysis: Nokia (NOK) - Nokia currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and an A grade for Value, indicating it is a strong candidate for value investors [4] - The stock has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.82, significantly lower than the industry average of 25.18, suggesting it may be undervalued [4] - Over the past year, Nokia's Forward P/E has fluctuated between a high of 15.03 and a low of 9.56, with a median of 12.96 [4] - Nokia's P/S ratio stands at 1.24, compared to the industry's average P/S of 1.59, further indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The combination of these metrics suggests that Nokia is likely undervalued and presents an impressive value stock opportunity at this time [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nokia (NOK) has experienced a significant downtrend with an 8.1% decline over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, suggesting a potential turnaround as analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, with a reading below 30 indicating that a stock is oversold [2]. - Nokia's current RSI reading is 19.12, indicating that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting, and a trend reversal could be imminent [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - There is strong consensus among sell-side analysts regarding an increase in earnings estimates for Nokia, with a 1% rise in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [7]. - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions typically correlates with price appreciation in the near term [7]. Group 3: Zacks Rank - Nokia holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, indicating a strong potential for a turnaround [8].

Group 1 - Google Fiber and Nokia have collaborated to demonstrate network slicing for home broadband, successfully reducing gaming latency from 90 milliseconds to 10 milliseconds [1] - Network slicing is a core technology of 5G, and its application has not yet met expectations, requiring more market participants to drive its commercial value [1][3] - Comcast has also initiated network slicing trials, aiming to reduce latency by 75% and support various applications including Apple FaceTime and Nvidia GeForce Now [2] Group 2 - Siemens has partnered with O2 Telefónica to develop 5G network slicing solutions, targeting industries such as water management and wastewater treatment [3][4] - The B2B model is currently the primary deployment method for network slicing, with Siemens acting as a reseller of O2 Telefónica's slicing services [4] - Google Fiber's demonstration may lead to B2C business models, enhancing its broadband service capabilities while also offering slicing capabilities to users [4] Group 3 - The smartphone sector faces challenges in implementing network slicing due to limitations in chipsets and operating systems, hindering the formation of B2C and B2B2C models [5][6] - For network slicing to succeed in consumer markets, smartphones must incorporate slicing capabilities, which requires collaboration among operating systems, modem chips, and applications [6][12] - A survey indicated that 33% of global operators are testing network slicing, while only 7% have deployed initial use cases, highlighting the complexity and resource demands of end-to-end slicing [13] Group 4 - Network slicing can enhance user experiences by providing dedicated bandwidth and lower latency, particularly in crowded environments [8] - It can drive innovation in internet applications, allowing for the development of new services based on reliable network slicing [9] - Service industries can leverage network slicing to improve customer service, offering dedicated communication channels for high-end clients [10] Group 5 - The introduction of network slicing in smartphones presents a significant opportunity for operators to design premium products and increase revenue [11] - As 5G smartphone users grow, network slicing could lead to tiered service offerings, enhancing the average revenue per user (ARPU) for operators [11] - The successful implementation of network slicing in consumer markets is crucial for expanding the mobile internet economy [11]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Nokia - **Industry**: Telecommunications and Networking Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q1 Financial Results**: Net sales declined by 3% year-over-year, but adjusted for over 400 million euros of catch-up net sales in Nokia Technologies, net sales grew by 7% [2][4] - **Growth Segments**: - Network Infrastructure grew by 11%, particularly strong in optical networks at 15% [2][5] - Cloud and Network Services grew by 8%, driven by demand for 5G Core [2][5] - Mobile Networks stabilized with a 2% growth [2][5] - **Profitability**: Operating margin in network infrastructure expanded by 190 basis points, while cloud and network services expanded by 930 basis points [3][5] - **Free Cash Flow**: Over 700 million euros generated in Q1, resulting in a net cash position of 3 billion euros [3][5] Market Dynamics - **Customer Feedback**: Initial conversations indicate Nokia is a critical partner for mobile and fixed infrastructure, with potential for expansion in hyperscale enterprise and defense markets [2][3] - **Global Trade Landscape**: The company expects a 20 to 30 million euro impact on operating profit in Q2 due to tariffs, but remains optimistic about market resilience [3][16] - **Infinera Acquisition**: The acquisition is expected to create significant synergies and enhance access to hyperscale customers, which are key growth drivers [4][11] Strategic Focus - **Capital Allocation**: The focus will be on driving efficiency while investing in growth segments to deliver long-term value [2][19] - **R&D Investment**: Emphasis on increasing R&D and go-to-market investments to capture growth opportunities, particularly in AI and cloud [19][26] - **Mobile Networks Strategy**: While mobile networks face challenges, there is potential for growth through a robust RAN and core portfolio [26][27] Regional Performance - **North America**: Significant contributor to net sales growth, particularly in network infrastructure and mobile networks [6][7] - **India**: Returned to growth, driven by network infrastructure and fixed wireless access demand [6][7] - **Europe**: Experienced a decline primarily due to Nokia Technologies, with a 7% decline excluding this segment [6][7] Risks and Challenges - **Tariff Impacts**: The company is actively monitoring the situation and exploring mitigation strategies [3][16] - **One-time Charges**: A significant one-time contract settlement of 120 million euros impacted mobile networks, but the company does not foresee similar issues with other customers [12][13] Future Outlook - **2025 Guidance**: The company maintains its guidance for comparable operating profit in the range of 1.9 to 2.4 billion euros, though achieving the top end may be more challenging [7][8] - **Growth Opportunities**: Continued focus on optical and IP networks, with expectations for strong growth in these areas [21][22] Additional Insights - **Enterprise Sales Growth**: 27% organic growth driven by hyperscale customers, particularly in optical networking [23] - **Customer Relationships**: Strong partnerships with key customers like Amazon and T-Mobile are expected to drive future growth [24][32] Important but Overlooked Content - **Customer-Specific Projects**: The one-time charge related to a customer-specific project from 2019 highlights the importance of operational visibility and customer satisfaction [12][13] - **Emerging Opportunities**: Potential growth in defense and AI-related services within mobile networks, indicating a shift in market dynamics [27]