Core Insights - Small-cap stocks present lucrative investment opportunities due to frequent mispricings resulting from limited analyst coverage [1] - The article highlights one small-cap stock to watch and two that are recommended for sale [2] Group 1: Stocks to Sell - G-III (GIII) has a market cap of $1.16 billion and is a fashion and apparel conglomerate with declining annual revenue of 1.2% over the last two years, indicating market positioning issues [3][4] - Korn Ferry (KFY) has a market cap of $3.40 billion and serves major clients including 97% of the S&P 100, but trades at a forward P/E of 12.4x, suggesting potential overvaluation [5][7] Group 2: Stock to Watch - Origin Bancorp (OBK) has a market cap of $1.09 billion and provides personalized banking services across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi [8] - OBK has shown impressive annual net interest income growth of 11.8% over the last five years, indicating market share gains [11] - Forecasts suggest operating profits for OBK will increase as it scales, with earnings per share having grown by 19.7% annually, outpacing revenue growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - Origin Bancorp has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, raising questions about its investment potential and whether its current stock price reflects its business quality and fundamentals [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Origin Bancorp's net interest income has increased at an annualized rate of 11.8% over the last five years, outperforming the broader banking industry and its total revenue growth [3] - The growth in net interest income is attributed to an increase in outstanding loans and net interest margin, which indicates the bank's earnings relative to its loan book [3] - For the next 12 months, Wall Street anticipates an improvement in Origin Bancorp's efficiency ratio, projecting it to be 60.8%, down from 69.6% in the past year, indicating better cost management [5] Group 2: Revenue Growth Concerns - Despite positive attributes, Origin Bancorp has experienced lackluster revenue growth, with an annualized revenue growth of only 1.6% over the last two years, which is below its five-year trend [6] - The recent slowdown in demand may reflect the impact of changing interest rates and market conditions on the company's performance [6] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Origin Bancorp's stock is currently trading at 0.9 times forward price-to-book value, suggesting potential for investment despite some uncertainties [9]

Financial Performance - Net income decreased by $10.0 million, or 53.6%, to $8.6 million for Q3 2025 compared to $18.6 million for Q3 2024[244] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, decreased by $16.5 million, or 26.6%, to $45.7 million from $62.2 million in the same period in 2024[272] - Noninterest income surged by $10.1 million, or 63.4%, to $26.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $16.0 million in 2024[1] - Noninterest income decreased by $12.6 million, or 22.6%, to $43.1 million, primarily due to a $14.3 million increase in loss on sales of securities[4] Interest Income and Expenses - Net interest income for Q3 2025 was $83.7 million, an increase of $8.9 million, or 11.9%, compared to Q3 2024[245] - Net interest income increased to $83.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $74.8 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a margin increase from 3.16% to 3.62%[1] - Interest expense on total interest-bearing deposits decreased by $16.0 million, with $12.0 million of the decrease attributable to lower interest rates for Q3 2025[246] - Interest expense on total interest-bearing deposits decreased by $42.4 million, with a significant portion attributed to lower interest rates[274] - The average rate on interest-bearing deposits declined by 81 basis points to 3.20% for Q3 2025 from 4.01% for Q3 2024[246] - The average rate paid on interest-bearing deposits decreased to 3.21% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, from 3.94% in the same period of 2024[341] Credit Losses and Provisions - Provision for credit losses increased by $32.2 million to $36.8 million for Q3 2025, primarily due to suspected borrower fraud[247] - Provision for credit losses rose significantly to $36.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from $4.6 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to suspected borrower fraud[1] - The company reported a $30.3 million increase in provision expense to $43.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to suspected fraud[272] - Net charge-offs increased to $31.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $9.5 million in the same period of 2024, largely due to fraud-related issues[1] - Net charge-offs rose by $21.4 million to $36.4 million, with a significant portion attributed to suspected borrower fraud impacting a specific loan relationship[3] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $9,727.4 million as of September 30, 2025, from $9,985.8 million a year earlier[1] - Total interest-earning assets decreased to $9.21 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, from $9.39 billion in the same period in 2024[278] - Total liabilities increased by $43.1 million, or 0.5%, to $8.58 billion at September 30, 2025, from $8.53 billion at December 31, 2024[300] - Total deposits were $8.33 billion at September 30, 2025, reflecting an increase of $108.7 million, or 1.3%, compared to December 31, 2024[247] - Total deposits increased by $108.7 million, or 1.3%, to $8.33 billion at September 30, 2025, from $8.22 billion at December 31, 2024[300] Equity and Capital - Book value per common share increased by $2.52, or 6.9%, to $39.23 at September 30, 2025, compared to December 31, 2024[247] - Stockholders' equity increased to $1.21 billion at September 30, 2025, from $1.15 billion at January 1, 2025, driven by net income of $45.7 million[360] - Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio for Origin Bancorp, Inc. increased to 13.59% as of September 30, 2025, up from 13.32% on December 31, 2024[363] - Total capital ratio for Origin Bancorp, Inc. decreased to 15.90% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 16.44% on December 31, 2024[363] Strategic Initiatives - The company executed various strategic initiatives as part of the Optimize Origin initiative, targeting a return on average assets (ROAA) of greater than 1% by Q4 2025[242] - The company’s interest rate risk management includes simulation models to assess the impact of interest rate changes on net interest income and fair value of equity[373] - The company’s stock repurchase program authorized up to $50 million for the next three years, following the completion of the previous program[363] Market and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points on September 17, 2025, and again on October 29, 2025, totaling a 150 basis point decrease from mid-2023[378] - Inflation impacts the company primarily through increased costs of goods and services, salaries, and occupancy expenses, rather than directly affecting monetary assets and liabilities[380]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific information or data regarding companies or industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Origin Bancorp (OBK) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is primarily based on a company's earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The recent upgrade reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is correlated with stock price movements, particularly influenced by institutional investors [5][6]. Investment Implications - The upgrade signifies an improvement in Origin Bancorp's underlying business, suggesting that investor sentiment may lead to an increase in stock price [6]. - The Zacks Rank system, which categorizes stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, has a strong historical performance, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 1988 [8]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Origin Bancorp is expected to earn $3.23 per share, with no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 2.7% over the past three months [9]. Market Positioning - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Origin Bancorp in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.27 for Q3 2025, with a net expense of $23.3 million from notable items impacting EPS by $0.59 [15] - Total revenue, excluding notable items, increased by 10%, while noninterest expense decreased by 3% [9][19] - The pretax pre-provision return on assets (ROA) rose by 48 basis points to 1.63% compared to 1.15% in 2024 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan originations increased by 19.2% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, with business loan production under $2.5 million up by 22.9% [9] - Treasury management fee income grew by 7% year-over-year, while loan and swap fees surged by 62% during the same period [9] - Noninterest-bearing deposits rose by $158.6 million or 8.6% quarter-over-quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a strong build on the deposit side, with total deposits increasing by 2.6% during the quarter [15] - Loans past due 30 to 89 days decreased from 0.16% last quarter to 0.1% as of September 30 [13] - Classified loans increased by $10.7 million, representing 1.84% of total loans at quarter-end, compared to 1.66% as of June 30 [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the "Optimize Origin" initiative, aiming to enhance ROA and capitalize on M&A-driven disruptions in the market [7][21] - The management expressed confidence in achieving top quartile performance through strategic relationship building and market opportunities [7][21] - The company plans to continue enhancing processes and controls to mitigate risks and improve credit management [44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the Tricolor fraud incident but emphasized that it is an isolated event and does not define the company [6][12] - The outlook for loan growth in Q4 is optimistic, with expectations of a return to growth after a period of paydowns [17][39] - The company anticipates maintaining deposit growth guidance in low single digits for the year, supported by seasonal inflows [17] Other Important Information - The company charged off the entire outstanding debt related to Tricolor, totaling $28.4 million, and fully reserved $1.5 million in unfunded letters of credit [12] - The tangible book value grew to $33.95, marking the twelfth consecutive quarter of growth [20] - The company repurchased 265,248 shares at an average price of $35.85 during the quarter [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about your NDFI exposure and any trends in subprime credits? - The subprime portfolio was approximately $92 million, representing 1.2% of total loans, with no past dues or non-performing loans in the NDFI segment [31][32] Question: What insurance could offset some of the charge-offs related to Tricolor? - Management is pursuing recovery avenues but cannot quantify the potential recovery at this time due to the complexities of the bankruptcy process [33][34] Question: Can you provide insights on loan growth guidance for 2026? - The company expects mid to high single-digit growth in 2026, driven by strong origination trends and a robust pipeline [39][40] Question: Will there be any impact on expense run rate due to the Tricolor incident? - Management does not anticipate significant additional expenses but is enhancing internal processes for credit management [44][45] Question: What are the priorities for capital deployment? - The primary focus is on organic balance sheet growth, with stock buybacks and potential M&A opportunities considered secondary [59][60]

Financial Performance & Targets - Origin Bancorp的目标是在2025年第四季度实现超过1%的ROAA运行率[17] - 2025年第三季度，净利息收入为8370万美元，比第二季度增长19%[32] - 2025年第三季度，NIM-FTE为365%，比第二季度增长4个基点[32] - 预计优化措施将带来约3720万美元的年度税前收益[18] Balance Sheet & Loan Portfolio - 截至2025年9月30日，总贷款额为7537099000美元[31] - 截至2025年9月30日，总存款额为8331830000美元[31] - 德克萨斯州的贷款占LHFI的71%，存款占54%[49] - 截至2025年9月30日，商业贷款占贷款组合的45%，非自用商业房地产、C&D和多户住宅占36%[54] Strategic Initiatives & Capital Management - Origin Bancorp正在实施“优化Origin”计划，以提高财务业绩和企业文化[32] - 公司在第三季度回购了265248股普通股，平均价格为每股3585美元[32] - 截至第三季度末，股票回购计划中剩余4050万美元[122]

Core Insights - Origin Bancorp reported revenue of $109.83 million for the quarter ended September 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 21% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $103.95 million by 5.66% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.27, a significant decrease from $0.60 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of -69.66% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.89 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total interest-earning assets were reported at $9.16 billion, slightly below the estimated $9.2 billion [4] - Total nonperforming assets amounted to $88.86 million, which is better than the average estimate of $90.56 million [4] - The Net Interest Margin (NIM) was reported at 3.7%, matching the average estimate [4] - Net charge-offs to total average LHFI (annualized) were 1.7%, significantly higher than the estimated 0.2% [4] - Total nonperforming LHFI was $88.28 million, slightly above the estimated $88.09 million [4] - The Efficiency Ratio was reported at 56.5%, better than the average estimate of 61.1% [4] - Total Noninterest Income was $26.13 million, exceeding the average estimate of $19.8 million [4] - Net Interest Income was reported at $83.7 million, slightly below the estimated $84.16 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Origin Bancorp have returned -4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +1.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Company Performance - Origin Bancorp reported quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.89 per share, and down from $0.60 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -69.66% [1] - The company posted revenues of $109.83 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.66%, compared to year-ago revenues of $90.79 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Origin Bancorp has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Market Comparison - Origin Bancorp shares have added about 2.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 14.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.85 on revenues of $101.05 million, and $3.23 on revenues of $382.6 million for the current fiscal year [7] Industry Outlook - The Zacks Industry Rank for Banks - Southeast is currently in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating that the industry is performing well [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact stock performance [5]

Core Points - Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported a net income of $8.6 million, or $0.27 diluted EPS for Q3 2025, down from $14.6 million, or $0.47 diluted EPS in Q2 2025 [1] - Pre-tax, pre-provision earnings (PTPP) increased to $47.8 million for Q3 2025, a significant rise of 122% compared to the previous quarter [1][4] - The company is focused on its "Optimize Origin" initiative aimed at enhancing financial performance and achieving a top quartile return on average assets (ROAA) [2][5] Financial Highlights - Net interest income for Q3 2025 was $83.7 million, up by 1.9% from the linked quarter, marking the highest level in the last ten quarters [1][8] - The net interest margin (NIM-FTE) expanded to 3.65%, reflecting a four basis point increase from the previous quarter [1][14] - Total deposits reached $8.33 billion, an increase of 2.6% from the previous quarter, with noninterest-bearing deposits rising by 8.6% [1][31] Credit Quality - The allowance for loan credit losses (ALCL) was $96.3 million, a 4.1% increase from the previous quarter [15] - Net charge-offs surged to $31.4 million, primarily due to issues related to Tricolor Holdings, LLC [17][19] - Past due loans increased by 7.2% compared to the previous quarter, indicating potential credit quality concerns [15] Noninterest Income and Expenses - Noninterest income for Q3 2025 was $26.1 million, a substantial increase from the linked quarter, primarily due to a recovery in equity method investment income [20][23] - Noninterest expenses remained relatively stable at $62.0 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous quarter [25] Investment and Securities - Total loans held for investment (LHFI) decreased to $7.54 billion, down 1.9% from the previous quarter, driven by declines in certain loan categories [27] - Total securities decreased to $1.12 billion, primarily due to scheduled principal paydowns [33] - Equity method investments increased significantly to $65.6 million, reflecting a change in accounting treatment following an additional investment in Argent Financial [33]