We came across a bullish thesis on Olin Corporation on X.com by BlueDuckCap. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OLN. Olin Corporation's share was trading at $24.85 as of October 9th. OLN’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.62 and 17.99 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. chemical, industry Adam Gregor/Shutterstock.com Olin Corporation (OLN) presents a compelling cyclical turnaround opportunity, highlighted by recent market activity such as Warren Buffett’s acquisition of OxyChem ...

Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation CLAYTON, Mo., Sept. 26, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) announced today that on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time, Olin's senior management will review the company's third quarter 2025 financial results. Our prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer period. Following the call, the webcast will remain available for replay on the company's website for one year. A telephonic replay of this conference call will be avail ...

Core Insights - Xcel Brands, Inc. has appointed Olin C. Lancaster as Chief Revenue Officer, bringing over 30 years of experience in global consumer brands and a strong record in revenue growth and operational excellence [2][3] Company Overview - Xcel Brands, Inc. is a media and consumer products company focused on the design, licensing, marketing, live streaming, and social commerce sales of various branded products, including apparel, footwear, and home goods [6] - The company was founded in 2011 with a vision to innovate shopping, entertainment, and social media through social commerce [6] - Xcel owns several brands, including Halston and Judith Ripka, and has partnerships with various creators and brands [6] Leadership Background - Olin C. Lancaster has held senior leadership positions at notable companies such as Kenneth Cole, DKNY, and Ralph Lauren, where he significantly grew the North American wholesale business [3] - At Meridian Brands, he successfully led a rebranding and restructuring effort that improved profitability and operational performance [3] Strategic Vision - Lancaster emphasizes the importance of activating and monetizing brands in a challenging market, highlighting Xcel's dual role as a media and brand management company [4] - The company aims to leverage its extensive experience in live streaming and social commerce to enhance brand value and attract partners [4] Market Impact - Xcel Brands has generated over $5 billion in retail sales through live streaming and digital channels, showcasing its effective sales strategy [6] - The company's brand portfolio has a significant social media presence, reaching over 43 million followers and broadcasting to 200 million households [6]

Core Insights - Innovent Biologics, in partnership with Ollin, is advancing IBI324 (OLN324), a bispecific antibody targeting VEGF and Ang2, currently in Phase 1b clinical trials for wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD) and diabetic macular edema (DME) [1][2][3] - The JADE study has enrolled over 150 patients, with topline results expected in Q1 2026, indicating significant progress in the clinical development of OLN324 [1][3] Company Overview - Innovent Biologics is a leading biopharmaceutical company founded in 2011, focusing on developing high-quality medicines for various diseases, including oncology and ophthalmology [5] - The company has launched 16 products and has multiple assets in various stages of clinical trials, showcasing a robust pipeline [5] Product Development - OLN324 is designed to have higher potency and durability compared to the current market leader, faricimab, potentially establishing it as a first-line treatment option [2][3] - The dual targeting mechanism of OLN324 aims to improve clinical outcomes for patients suffering from wAMD and DME, addressing significant unmet medical needs [3][2] Clinical Trial Progress - The successful completion of patient enrollment in the JADE study marks a key milestone for both Innovent and Ollin, reflecting their strong collaboration [3][1] - Previous studies have shown promising results for IBI324 in improving vision and anatomical outcomes in DME patients, alongside a favorable safety profile [3]

Group 1 - Olin Corporation (OLN) shares have underperformed over the past year due to a weak PVC market, primarily caused by low construction activity in China and globally [1] - The company's stock performance reflects broader industry challenges, particularly in the construction sector, which has seen reduced demand for PVC products [1]

Part I — Financial Information [Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements) This section presents Olin Corporation's unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2025, including balance sheets, statements of operations, comprehensive income, shareholders' equity, and cash flows, along with detailed notes on accounting policies and financial data Condensed Balance Sheet Highlights (as of June 30, 2025) | Metric | June 30, 2025 (Millions USD) | Dec 31, 2024 (Millions USD) | June 30, 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | 223.8 | 175.6 | 182.1 | | Total current assets | 2,286.7 | 2,079.8 | 2,058.3 | | Total assets | 7,667.9 | 7,579.1 | 7,660.6 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | | Total current liabilities | 1,545.9 | 1,632.2 | 1,439.3 | | Long-term debt | 2,977.5 | 2,713.2 | 2,789.1 | | Total liabilities | 5,680.1 | 5,523.7 | 5,491.3 | | Total equity | 1,987.8 | 2,055.4 | 2,169.3 | Statement of Operations Summary | Metric | Q2 2025 (Millions USD) | Q2 2024 (Millions USD) | H1 2025 (Millions USD) | H1 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Sales | 1,758.3 | 1,644.0 | 3,402.5 | 3,279.3 | | Operating income | 35.3 | 136.4 | 79.0 | 233.7 | | Net (loss) income attributable to Olin | (1.3) | 74.2 | 0.1 | 122.8 | | Diluted EPS | (0.01) | 0.62 | 0.00 | 1.01 | Cash Flow Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | Metric | 2025 (Millions USD) | 2024 (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash from operating activities | 126.3 | 171.6 | | Net cash for investing activities | (152.3) | (150.4) | | Net cash from financing activities | 73.4 | (8.9) | | Net increase in cash | 48.2 | 11.8 | Notes to Condensed Financial Statements - Olin operates in three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester[17](index=17&type=chunk) - On April 18, 2025, Olin acquired AMMO, Inc.'s small caliber ammunition manufacturing assets for **$55.8 million** in cash, which is now part of the Winchester segment[21](index=21&type=chunk) - In March 2025, the company issued **$600.0 million** of 6.625% senior notes due 2033 and entered into a new **$1.85 billion** senior credit facility, extending maturity to 2030 and increasing borrowing limits[36](index=36&type=chunk)[37](index=37&type=chunk) - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company repurchased and retired **1.2 million shares** of common stock for **$30.3 million**. As of June 30, 2025, **$1.97 billion** remained authorized for repurchase[67](index=67&type=chunk)[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=27&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses the company's financial performance, highlighting a significant decrease in net income for the second quarter and first half of 2025 compared to the prior year, attributed to lower operating results across all segments, higher costs, planned maintenance, and pricing pressures, detailing segment-specific performance, liquidity actions, and providing an outlook for the third quarter and full year 2025 Executive Summary Net Income and EPS Comparison | Period | Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Olin (Millions USD) | Diluted EPS (USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q2 2025** | (1.3) | (0.01) | | **Q2 2024** | 74.2 | 0.62 | | **H1 2025** | 0.1 | 0.00 | | **H1 2024** | 122.8 | 1.01 | - The decrease in net income was primarily due to **lower operating results** across all business segments[105](index=105&type=chunk) - Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls **segment income was lower** due to higher costs and lower EDC pricing, despite higher volumes[106](index=106&type=chunk) - The Epoxy **segment reported a loss**, impacted by higher operating costs and weak global demand, with challenges from subsidized Asian competition[107](index=107&type=chunk) - Winchester **segment income declined** due to decreased commercial ammunition sales and higher costs, partially offset by increased military sales[108](index=108&type=chunk) Consolidated Results of Operations - Q2 2025 sales **increased 7% YoY to $1,758.3 million**, driven by higher volumes in Chlor Alkali and higher military sales in Winchester[116](index=116&type=chunk) - Q2 2025 gross margin **decreased by $99.7 million YoY**, with the margin percentage **falling to 8% from 14%**, primarily due to lower commercial sales and pricing in Winchester and higher operating costs across all segments[117](index=117&type=chunk) - H1 2025 sales **increased 4% YoY to $3,402.5 million**, driven by higher volumes in Chlor Alkali and increased military sales in Winchester[122](index=122&type=chunk) - H1 2025 gross margin **decreased by $158.3 million YoY**, with the margin percentage **falling to 8% from 14%**, due to lower commercial volumes and pricing in Winchester and higher operating costs across segments[123](index=123&type=chunk) Segment Results Segment Income (Loss) Before Taxes (Millions USD) | Segment | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls | 64.9 | 99.3 | 143.2 | 175.9 | | Epoxy | (23.7) | (3.0) | (52.1) | (14.8) | | Winchester | 25.0 | 70.3 | 47.8 | 142.5 | - **Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls:** Q2 segment income **decreased by $34.4 million YoY** due to higher raw material/operating costs and lower EDC pricing, which offset higher volumes[133](index=133&type=chunk) - **Epoxy:** Q2 segment **loss widened by $20.7 million YoY**, driven by higher operating costs from planned maintenance and lower product pricing[138](index=138&type=chunk) - **Winchester:** Q2 segment **income fell by $45.3 million YoY**, attributed to lower commercial sales volumes, lower pricing, and higher raw material costs[143](index=143&type=chunk) Outlook - Expects Q3 2025 operating results to be comparable or slightly higher than Q2 2025 levels, with seasonally stronger demand in Chemicals and increased military demand in Winchester[153](index=153&type=chunk) Full Year 2025 Forecast | Metric | Forecast Range (Millions USD) | | :--- | :--- | | Capital Spending | 200 - 220 | | Depreciation & Amortization | ~525 | | Environmental Expenses | 25 - 35 | | Cash Taxes Paid | ~175 | - The 2025 effective tax rate is expected to be in the **25% to 35% range**[156](index=156&type=chunk) Liquidity and Capital Resources - Cash from operations **decreased by $45.3 million** in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, primarily due to lower operating results[162](index=162&type=chunk) - Capital spending for H1 2025 was **$92.4 million**, down from **$100.8 million** in H1 2024[163](index=163&type=chunk) - In H1 2025, the company had net debt borrowings of **$159.8 million**, repurchased **$30.3 million** of common stock, and paid **$46.0 million** in dividends[161](index=161&type=chunk)[165](index=165&type=chunk)[166](index=166&type=chunk)[168](index=168&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, the company had **$1,164.6 million** available under its 2025 Revolving Credit Facility[173](index=173&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk](index=37&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20about%20Market%20Risk) Olin is exposed to market risks from commodity price volatility, foreign currency exchange rates, and interest rate changes, which the company manages using derivative instruments; as of June 30, 2025, a hypothetical **100-basis point change** in the SOFR would impact annual interest expense by **$12.3 million** on its **$1.23 billion** of variable-rate debt - The company is exposed to market risk from commodity prices (energy, raw materials), foreign currencies (primarily Euro), and interest rates[187](index=187&type=chunk)[188](index=188&type=chunk)[190](index=190&type=chunk)[191](index=191&type=chunk) - A hypothetical **100-basis point change** in the SOFR would impact annual interest expense by an estimated **$12.3 million**, based on variable-rate debt levels at June 30, 2025[192](index=192&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=38&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) The CEO and CFO concluded that as of June 30, 2025, the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective, with no material changes in internal control over financial reporting during the quarter - Management, including the CEO and CFO, concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025[194](index=194&type=chunk) - No material changes to internal control over financial reporting occurred during the quarter ended June 30, 2025[195](index=195&type=chunk) Part II — Other Information [Legal Proceedings](index=40&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) This section notes a chlorine release incident at the company's Freeport, TX site on May 20, 2025, and while monetary fines or penalties are possible, the company cannot currently predict the outcome or estimate any potential loss - On May 20, 2025, a chlorine release occurred at the Freeport, TX site, which may result in monetary fines or penalties[201](index=201&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=40&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) There have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 - No material changes have occurred to the risk factors disclosed in the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K[203](index=203&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=40&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) During the second quarter of 2025, Olin repurchased **510,088 shares** of its common stock, and as of June 30, 2025, approximately **$1.97 billion** remained available for purchase under its authorized share repurchase programs Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q2 2025) | Period | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid per Share (USD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | April 1-30, 2025 | — | — | | May 1-31, 2025 | 387,104 | 19.77 | | June 1-30, 2025 | 122,984 | 19.18 | | **Total** | **510,088** | **N/A** | - As of June 30, 2025, **$1,968.9 million** remained available for repurchase under the company's 2022 and 2024 share repurchase authorizations[204](index=204&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=41&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists the exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including bylaws, debt agreements, officer certifications, and XBRL data files - Exhibits filed include amended bylaws, debt indentures and credit agreements, CEO/CFO certifications, and interactive data files (XBRL)[211](index=211&type=chunk)

Core Insights - Olin Corporation (OLN) reported a second-quarter 2025 loss of $1.3 million, or a loss of $0.01 per share, compared to a profit of $74.2 million, or $0.62 per share, in the same quarter last year. Excluding one-time items, earnings were $0.05 per share [1][7] - Revenues increased by approximately 6.9% year over year to $1,758.3 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,669.1 million [1][7] Segment Review - **Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls**: Revenues reached $979.5 million, up around 6.4% year over year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $955.4 million. Segment earnings were $64.9 million, down from $99.3 million in Q2 2024 [2] - **Epoxy**: Revenues rose approximately 4.2% year over year to $331.2 million, beating the consensus estimate of $305.9 million [3] - **Winchester**: Revenues increased by about 10.2% year over year to $447.6 million, driven by higher military sales, surpassing the consensus estimate of $401.9 million [3] Financials - Olin's cash balance at the end of Q2 was $223.8 million, with a net debt of approximately $2.8 billion. The company repurchased around 0.5 million shares for $10.1 million during the quarter, with about $2 billion remaining in share repurchase authorizations [4] Outlook - Olin anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 to be between $170 million and $210 million, citing ongoing market challenges and potential rising costs. The company emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on maximizing cash generation [5] Price Performance - Olin's shares have declined by 54.1% over the past year, compared to a 19.4% decline in the industry [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, adjusted EBITDA declined by 5% compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to a $32 million headwind from planned maintenance turnaround costs in the chemicals business [18] - Operating cash flow exceeded $212 million, funding the acquisition of a new ammunition facility, paying down $39 million of debt, and repurchasing $10 million of shares [7][20] - The company expects working capital to be a source of at least $100 million in cash for 2025, excluding tax payment timing [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment saw stable domestic caustic soda demand, with robust global demand for caustic soda into alumina [8] - The epoxy business experienced sequential growth in both volume and margin, despite ongoing challenges in the building and construction, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors [10][11] - Winchester's defense business continued to grow, driven by strong domestic military ammunition demand, while the commercial ammunition business faced challenges due to high retail inventories and weak consumer demand [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EDC pricing declined significantly, dropping more than 50% year-to-date, with expectations for stabilization in Q3 [31][34] - The company noted that tariff impacts on the chlor alkali business are generally neutral, but potential retaliatory tariffs could shift this balance [9][74] - The company highlighted that the market for caustic soda remains stable, with no deterioration in global demand [91] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a "value first" commercial approach, focusing on preserving value across integrated ECU products despite ongoing trough demand conditions [5] - The "Beyond 250" cost savings initiative aims to achieve annual cost savings of $70 million to $90 million by optimizing operations and reducing reliance on outside contractors [14][42] - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined capital allocation approach, prioritizing investment-grade balance sheet maintenance, sustaining capital spending, and returning free cash flow to shareholders [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for Q3, expecting seasonal demand strength across businesses, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $170 million and $210 million [25][23] - The management acknowledged the challenges posed by higher commodity costs and the need for price increases to recover margins in the Winchester segment [46][48] - Management indicated that the current challenges in the commercial ammunition business are not structural and are expected to improve over time [12][45] Other Important Information - The company experienced several unplanned operating events that limited results to the lower end of expectations [7] - The acquisition of the Manitowoc ammunition facility is expected to generate $5 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and $40 million by year three [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress of caustic soda price increase - Management noted ongoing strength in caustic soda supply and demand, with some short-term headwinds due to tariff uncertainties [27] Question: EDC pricing and potential support - Management acknowledged lower-than-expected EDC prices but expressed confidence in a floor due to curtailments in Asia and stable oil prices [32] Question: Winchester commercial pricing and cost headwinds - Management indicated that the decline in Winchester's commercial business is driven by volume and pricing pressures, with propellant costs continuing to be a headwind [36] Question: Cost savings program details - Management expects to realize $50 million to $70 million in cost savings for 2025, with additional structural cost reductions anticipated in 2026 [42] Question: Outlook for Winchester and potential worsening conditions - Management does not foresee further deterioration in Winchester, emphasizing that current challenges are temporary and not structural [45] Question: Impact of tariffs on chlor alkali operating rates - Management indicated that tariffs are currently neutral for chlor alkali, but significant retaliatory tariffs could pose a risk [74] Question: Customer inventory levels and destocking - Management reported that customers have not begun restocking and are focused on cash generation, with no significant changes in inventory behavior [81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the second quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA declined by 5% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a $32 million headwind from planned maintenance turnaround costs in the chemicals business [16][19] - Operating cash flow exceeded $212 million, funding the acquisition of a new ammunition facility, paying down $39 million of debt, and repurchasing $10 million of shares [5][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The chemicals business faced operational headwinds but managed to generate stable cash flow, with caustic soda demand remaining robust [6][16] - The epoxy resins segment saw sequential growth in both volume and margin, despite ongoing challenges in the building and construction sectors [9][10] - Winchester's defense business continued to grow, driven by strong domestic military demand, while the commercial ammunition business faced challenges due to high costs and weak consumer demand [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American chlorine index values remained stable and higher than previous troughs, despite ongoing demand challenges [4][6] - EDC pricing experienced a significant decline, dropping more than 50% year-to-date, with expectations for stabilization in the third quarter [28][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a "value first" commercial approach, focusing on maintaining profitability during trough demand conditions [4][5] - The "Beyond 250" cost savings initiative aims to achieve $70 million to $90 million in annual savings by optimizing operations and reducing costs [13][37] - The company is exploring strategic options for its PBC market participation, leveraging its integrated VCM assets [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the third quarter, expecting seasonal demand strength across businesses, although macroeconomic uncertainties remain [21][22] - The company anticipates that the challenges in the commercial ammunition market are not structural and expects improvements as destocking pressures ease [11][41] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing rising costs and the need for price increases to restore margins in the Winchester segment [32][42] Other Important Information - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined capital allocation approach, prioritizing investment-grade balance sheets, sustaining capital spending, and returning free cash flow to shareholders [19][20] - The company is actively managing operational challenges, including a chlorine leak incident, and is committed to improving safety and reliability [7][73] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress of caustic soda price increase - Management noted that the caustic soda market remains tight, driven by stable demand and supply issues related to tariffs, which may cause temporary headwinds [24][26] Question: EDC pricing decline and potential support - Management acknowledged the unexpected drop in EDC prices but expressed confidence in reaching a floor due to curtailments in Asia and stable oil prices [30] Question: Winchester commercial pricing and cost pressures - Management indicated that the decline in Winchester's commercial business is driven by volume and pricing pressures, with ongoing cost headwinds from metals and propellants [32][33] Question: Cost savings program details - Management expects to achieve $50 million to $70 million in cost savings for 2025, with additional structural reductions anticipated in 2026 [37] Question: Future outlook for Winchester and potential risks - Management does not foresee worsening conditions for Winchester but emphasized the need for price recovery to address margin pressures [41][42] Question: Impact of tariffs on caustic soda exports - Management discussed the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs from Brazil on caustic soda exports, noting that trade flows would need to be adjusted if such tariffs were implemented [66][72] Question: Clarification on working capital and tax payments - Management provided insights into expected cash taxes for 2025 and clarified the relationship between deferred tax burdens and working capital benefits [94]

Financial Performance - Olin's Q2 2025 sales were $980 million[10], compared to $920 million in Q2 2024[10] and $925 million in Q1 2025[10] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $171 million[10], down from $205 million in Q2 2024[10] and $186 million in Q1 2025[10] - Olin generated $212 million in operating cash flow[9] Segment Performance - Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls (CAPV) sales were $331 million in Q2 2025[17], slightly down from $332 million in Q1 2025[17], and up from $318 million in Q2 2024[17] Adjusted EBITDA was negative $11 million[17] - Epoxy sales were $448 million in Q2 2025[23], up from $388 million in Q1 2025[23] and $406 million in Q2 2024[23] Adjusted EBITDA was $33 million[23] - Winchester sales were $176 million in Q2 2025[36] Outlook and Initiatives - Olin expects Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to be between $170 million and $210 million[45] - The company is targeting $70-$90 million in annualized run rate savings by year-end 2025 through the Beyond250 initiative[30] - Olin expects working capital, excluding tax payment timing, to be greater than $100 million source of cash in 2025[43]