投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所增加，产量有所下滑。周度国内烧碱产量环比下降0.2万吨至83万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.0%，较上 | | | | 周环比-0.7%。分区域来看，假期期间，西北及华北负荷均有下滑，其中西北-1.8%至91.8%；华北-1.4%至76.8%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）季节性淡季，非铝需求复工不足。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率89.63%，较上周-0.19%。本周山东部分粘胶装置运行负荷降低，周内行业整体 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 Z0003135 张晓珍 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 10月10日 | 10月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2307 | 2290 | 17.00 | 0.74% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2351 | 2346 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | MA15价差 | -44 | -56 | 12.00 | -21.43% | | | 太仓基差 | -136 | -136 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2068 | 2083 | -15.00 | -0.72% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2195 | 2200 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2215 | 2210 | 5.00 | 0.23% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 148 | 128 | 20.00 | 15.69% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 20 ...

【SH周报20251012】供需基本面变化有限,现货弱稳等待驱动 日期：2025-10-10 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【SH周报20251012】供需基本面变化有限，现货弱稳等待驱动 | | | ® 合约: SH601 ® 观点: 烧碱 等待做空机会,但上方空间也可能较大 ● 退領。 解威証联受配手页腾讯职称简单发艺集，现货价佳表现局强、市场围绕化工产业团和集团的记同样对俄媒体应带领维得了较强的部引，短期期顾或是现情景运行。但10台的处于手市出演季，后续随迁率领域，现 货价格或再度回落。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 套保比例(%) 情拐向 现货做口 策略推荐 套保行生品 入场价格 参与角色 行为导向 买卖 相关场外产品 买入看跌期权对库存进行报价,同时卖 买入 SH601P2400 100 38 | 生产企业 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 安 | 出看涨期权，若不行权可以增强收益， | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 若行权可以实现高价卖出库存 | SH601C2800 ...

氯碱周报 S H ：节日期间现货成交平淡 ， 烧碱趋弱运行 V ：供需矛盾较难解决 ， 关 注 旺 季 需 求 边际变化 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：节后盘面大幅回落，受长假影响节日期间库存大幅累库，现货成交清淡。节前盘面持续趋弱回落。下游方面，节前非铝补库结束，刚需买货为主，国庆后伴随 非铝库存消化下降或可能因为低价有采购意愿。主力氧化铝下游库存高补库意愿同样偏低，节前山东大厂送货量居高不下，未来收货价有下调预期。氧化铝产能高位，过剩问题存 在，预计若减产或需等到11月，因此短期烧碱需求尚存支撑。从投产节奏看，氧化铝在明年一季度有较多投产，因此今年四季度或有集中备货行为，届时现货流通性或收紧。因此 中长线烧碱存需求支撑，但短期缺乏支撑趋于弱势，短线可偏空对待，需跟踪下游补库节奏。 ◼ 期货策略建议：继续偏空对待 ◼ 期权策略建议：持有看跌期权 ◼ PVC主要观点：节中pvc中下游企业多数放假，现货成交清淡。节前pvc盘面趋弱震荡，基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，盘面、现货价格共同 ...

氯碱周报 | 2025-10-12 烧碱现货成交好转，关注采购持续性 烧碱：现货成交好转，关注采购持续性 市场要闻与重要数据 价格方面：截至2025-10-10，烧碱期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2470元/吨（+20）；山东32%液碱基差77元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+5）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 供应方面：烧碱开工率84.30%，（-0.80%）；烧碱周度产量82.83万吨（-0.62）。 需求方面：主力下游氧化铝开工率86.32%（+0.14%），氧化铝周度产量186.30万吨（+0.30），氧化铝港口库存6.30 （+0.30）；印染华东开工率66.63%（+0.00%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.63%（-0.30%）；白卡纸开工率：82.95%（+0.00%）； 阔叶浆开工率82.70%（+0.10%）。 生产利润方面：截至2025-10-10，山东氯碱综合利润（1吨烧碱+0.8吨液氯）748.28元/吨（-24.38），山东氯碱综合 利润（1吨烧碱+1吨PVC）177.28元/吨（+30.63），山东烧碱单品种利润1571.40元/吨（+15.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-10 节后累库，关注下游采购情况 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4769元/吨（-70）；华东基差-149元/吨（-10）;华南基差-59元/吨（+20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4620元/吨（-80）；华南电石法报价4710元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-775元/吨（+9）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-558元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.0万吨（-1.9）；PVC社会库存53.8万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.6万吨（+1.7）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 10月9日 | 9月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7077 | 7153 | -76 | -1.06% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7158 | 7220 | -62 | -0.86% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6745 | 6852 | -107 | -1.56% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6807 | 6880 | -73 | -1.06% | | | L2509-2601 | 81 | 67 | 14 | 20.90% | | | PP2509-2601 | 62 | 28 | 34 | 121.43% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6680 | 6750 | -70 | -1.04% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7030 | 7100 | -70 | -0.99% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -50 | -50 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) -81 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2450 | | 102719 | 18857 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3064 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -2697 | | 290860 | 116592 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -81 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2450 | | 2550 | -63 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -2697 | -3064 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | 940 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 50 | 81 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) 0 原盐:西北:主 ...