氯碱日报 | 2025-08-26 烧碱下游继续上调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5047元/吨（+28）；华东基差-297元/吨（-8）;华南基差-187元/吨（+2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4750元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4860元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格630元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（+0）；电石利润-39元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-223元/吨（+8）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-592元/吨（-52）；PVC出口利润14.1美元/吨（+1.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-2.1）；PVC社会库存50.8万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率76.07%（-3.14%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.44%（-5.48%）；PVC开工率75.02%（-3.82%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量72.5万吨（-6.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2732元/吨（-9）；山东32%液碱基差-45元/吨（+40）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC受黑色板块情绪影响，期价反弹，近期需关注宏观及 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的推确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方 法，并不代表广发期货或其倾眉机楣机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或均价，投资者局比投资，风险自担 。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布，复制，如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2025年8月25日 张鹏珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 涨跌幅 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| ////◆ 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月25日 | | 影丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | な女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | ★☆★ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内高开后围绕10日均线震荡整理。基本面上,生产企业库存压力不大 ...

[Table_Title] 氯碱行业：底部徘徊等风来 行业研究丨深度报告丨基础化工 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 氯碱下游应用领域涉及地产、氧化铝、化工、印染等多方面的需求，所以与我国 GDP 存在一 定关系，同时烧碱+PVC 出口均呈稳步增长。国家倡导反内卷下，供给侧装置转型、能耗都有 望成为氯碱行业的抓手。目前行业盈利已经触底，后续需求或者供给端的刺激或会对行业带来 较大的弹性。在公司上面，我们建议关注"烧碱+一体化低成本电石法 PVC"企业以及"烧碱 +乙烯法 PVC"企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 氯碱行业：底部徘徊等风来 [Table_Summary2] 氯碱行业：规模较大的基础化工产业 [Table_S ...

人民财讯8月25日电，氯碱化工(600618)8月25日晚间披露2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入35.77亿 元，同比下降8.10%；归母净利润4.43亿元，同比增长21.09%；基本每股收益0.3831元。本报告期公司 所处行业市场整体呈现供需博弈加剧、价格波动频繁的复杂局面，公司的主导产品烧碱价格比上年同期 略有上涨，氯产品和聚氯乙烯价格均有所下降。 转自：证券时报 ...

智通财经APP讯，氯碱化工(600618.SH)发布2025年半年度报告，该公司营业收入为35.77亿元，同比减 少8.10%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4.43亿元，同比增长21.09%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润为4.41亿元，同比增长21.26%。基本每股收益为0.3831元。 报告期公司所处行业市场整体呈现供需博弈加剧、价格波动频繁的复杂局面，公司的主导产品烧碱价格 比上年同期略有上涨，氯产品和聚氯乙烯价格均有所下降。 ...

化工板块今日（8月22日）持续上攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后拉 升，盘中场内价格涨幅一度达到1.29%，截至发稿，涨1.15%。 | | | 分别 8日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 川 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 图加 九龙 图线 工具 @ (2) > | | 化工ETF (D | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.70 | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 14:11 6) 0.703 露天 0.000(1.15%) 150 0.699 成交量 413 IOPV 0.7023 2025... | | | | 0.703 | | +0.008 +1.159 | | | | | | | monthour move | | | | SSE CNY 14:11:26 交易中 | | 10 4 | | 0.000 | | | | | | | | 0.65% | 净值走势 | | 华安化工ETF | | ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-22 旺季临近，烧碱继续去库 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5004元/吨（-4）；华东基差-264元/吨（+24）;华南基差-164元/吨（+44）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4740元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（+40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格630元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（+0）；电石利润-39元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-231元/吨（+21）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-540元/吨（-51）；PVC出口利润15.5美元/吨（-3.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存49.3万吨（+1.2）；PVC电石法开工率76.07%（-3.14%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.44%（-5.48%）；PVC开工率75.02%（-3.82%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.1万吨（-4.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2687元/吨（+32）；山东32%液碱基差-62元/吨（-32）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1340元/吨（+0）。 市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - PVC unilateral: Neutral; PVC inter - period: Wait - and - see; PVC inter - variety: None [4] - Caustic soda unilateral: Wait - and - see; Caustic soda inter - period: SH10 - 01 long the spread when prices are low; Caustic soda inter - variety: None [5] Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports in July were 330,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 113%. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 2.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%. Due to the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, PVC exports in July exceeded expectations. However, the overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak, with high supply pressure and low downstream demand [2] - The upstream production of caustic soda maintains a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. The demand side shows that the alumina industry has stable profits and production, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has also increased slightly. The inventory of caustic soda is decreasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Price and Basis - PVC main contract closing price: 5,008 yuan/ton (+7); East China basis: - 288 yuan/ton (- 17); South China basis: - 208 yuan/ton (- 27) [1] - East China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,720 yuan/ton (- 10); South China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,800 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Semi - coke price: 630 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide price: 2,755 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide profit: - 39 yuan/ton (+0); PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit: - 231 yuan/ton (+21); PVC ethylene - based production gross profit: - 540 yuan/ton (- 51); PVC export profit: 24.7 US dollars/ton (+6.5) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - PVC factory inventory: 327,000 tons (- 10,000); PVC social inventory: 493,000 tons (+12,000); PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate: 79.21% (+1.38%); PVC ethylene - based operating rate: 77.92% (+0.37%); PVC overall operating rate: 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] Downstream Orders - Production enterprise pre - sales volume: 791,000 tons (- 41,000) [1] Caustic Soda Price and Basis - SH main contract closing price: 2,655 yuan/ton (+57); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis: - 30 yuan/ton (- 57) [1] - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: 840 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda spot price: 1,340 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Shandong caustic soda single - product profit: 1,634 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine): 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 583.78 yuan/ton (- 10.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 1,367.74 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - Liquid caustic soda factory inventory: 437,800 tons (- 23,900); Flake caustic soda factory inventory: 23,300 tons (+1,200); Caustic soda operating rate: 84.10% (- 1.00%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate - Alumina operating rate: 85.64% (- 0.09%); Printing and dyeing operating rate in East China: 61.46% (+2.18%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 86.04% (+1.07%) [1]