Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment insights and research capabilities of Ian Bezek, highlighting his experience in Latin American markets and focus on high-quality growth stocks at reasonable prices [2]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Ian Bezek has a decade of experience as a hedge fund analyst, particularly in Latin America, focusing on markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Chile [2]. - He specializes in identifying high-quality compounders and growth stocks in both the US and developed markets [2]. Group 2: Investment Group Features - The investing group, Ian's Insider Corner, offers various features including a Weekend Digest that covers new investment ideas, updates on current holdings, and macroeconomic analysis [2]. - Members of the group receive trade alerts, have access to an active chat room, and can directly interact with Ian Bezek [2].

Core Thesis - Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMAB) is viewed positively due to its monopoly position, long-term government-backed contracts, and strong financial performance, making it a compelling long-term investment opportunity [1][5][6] Company Overview - OMAB operates 13 airports in higher-income cities in Mexico, including Monterrey, Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Ciudad Juárez, and is led by CEO Ricardo Duenas Espriu since 2018 [2] - The company has a government-backed contract to operate these airports until 2048, positioning it as a durable monopoly [2] Revenue Structure - OMAB's revenue is divided into Aeronautical revenue from per-ticket fees charged to airlines and Non-Aeronautical revenue from retail, restaurant leases, and hotel operations [3] - The company can adjust per-ticket fees slightly above inflation every five years, with the next renegotiation scheduled for 2025 [3] Financial Performance - OMAB has a trailing P/E of 17x and a forward P/E of 14x, with an EV/EBITDA of 10x trailing and 8.7x forward, indicating strong profitability [4] - The company boasts a 50% return on equity (ROE) and a 23% return on invested capital (ROIC) [4] - OMAB holds $242 million in cash against approximately $500 million in debt and offers a 4.6% dividend funded by about 75% of free cash flow [4] - Over the past decade, revenue has compounded at 14% and diluted EPS at 17%, supported by increasing operating margins [4] Investment Outlook - Despite potential risks such as declines in passenger volumes due to economic downturns, OMAB's monopoly position, robust domestic traffic, predictable contracts, and attractive dividend provide downside protection [5] - Anticipated economic growth in Mexico, rising ticket fees from the 2025 renegotiation, and steady volume growth present strong potential for multiple expansion and long-term returns [5][6]

Core Insights - The company is focusing on investments in terminal expansions, airside infrastructure, equipment upgrades, and sustainability initiatives, aiming for improved energy efficiency and emissions reduction targets [1][6][7] Investment and Development Plans - The Federal Civil Aviation Agency approved OMA's Master Development Program (MDP) for 2026–2030, with a total investment commitment of approximately MXN 16 billion in December 2024 pesos, emphasizing capacity expansion and quality enhancements at major airports [2][6] - The investment plan is expected to improve capital efficiency due to higher traffic levels compared to the previous cycle [7] Financial Performance - OMA reported strong operating results for 2025, with seat capacity up approximately 11% and total passengers reaching 28.8 million, an increase of 8.5% year-over-year [5][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was MXN 10.2 billion, with a margin of 74.5%, supported by significant growth in commercial and diversification lines [12] Traffic and Revenue Growth - Full-year 2025 traffic rose 8.5%, with domestic passengers growing by 8% and international passengers increasing by 12% [9] - The company opened 35 new routes during the year, enhancing its international footprint, particularly from Monterrey [9] Tariff Adjustments - A 6.9% tariff increase was announced, effective April 10, with expectations to reach approximately 93% of the maximum tariff by year-end [4][21] - Aeronautical revenues increased by 5.6% year-over-year, while non-aeronautical revenues rose by 7.5%, driven by higher passenger traffic and tariff adjustments [15][16] Major Maintenance and Costs - The major maintenance provision was MXN 216 million, significantly higher than the previous year's quarter, reflecting reassessed maintenance requirements [20] - Airport services and general administrative expenses rose by 11.6%, attributed to higher contracted services and maintenance costs [19] Future Outlook - Management anticipates low- to mid-single-digit traffic growth for 2026, with 20 confirmed new routes [23] - The company is evaluating new projects, including hotel developments and industrial park expansions in Monterrey [24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total passenger traffic reached 28.8 million, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2024, with domestic traffic growing by 8% and international traffic by 12% [8][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was MXN 10.2 billion, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 74.5% [10] - For Q4 2025, passenger traffic totaled 7.5 million, a 6% increase year over year, with seat capacity increasing by 8% [10][12] - Consolidated net income for Q4 was MXN 1.2 billion, an increase of 3.6% compared to Q4 2024 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Restaurant revenues grew by 22%, VIP lounges revenues increased by 30%, and parking revenues increased by 13% compared to 2024 [9] - OMA Carga revenues recorded a 9% increase, driven by higher volumes and improved operational efficiencies [10] - Aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues each grew approximately 12% year over year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The approval of the Master Development Program (MDP) for 2026-2030 includes an investment commitment of approximately MXN 16 billion, focusing on capacity expansion and quality enhancements [4][5] - The MDP reflects disciplined capital allocation and greater efficiency in the deployment of capital expenditures [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The MDP prioritizes projects that enhance passenger experience, improve operational efficiency, and incorporate technology solutions [5] - Sustainability and decarbonization are embedded in the investment strategy, with initiatives aimed at improving energy efficiency and supporting long-term emission reduction targets [5] - The company aims to strengthen overseas connectivity with additional operations to Madrid and the launch of a Monterrey-Paris route in April 2026 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that traffic levels today are materially higher than five years ago, indicating improved capital efficiency per passenger [6] - For 2026, the company anticipates low to mid-single digit growth in traffic [68] - The management expressed confidence that the tariff increases will not significantly impact traffic elasticity [81] Other Important Information - Total investments in Q4, including MDP investments, amounted to MXN 755 million [13] - The company expects the full-year major maintenance provision cost for 2026 to be approximately MXN 400 million [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Major maintenance provision details - The MXN 260 million major maintenance provision reflects expected expenditures for 2026-2030 and timing changes [22][23] Question: Passenger fees increase expectations - A 6.9% increase in passenger fees is expected starting April 10th, with an aim to reach 100% of the maximum tariff in 2 to 3 years [32] Question: Timing of investment in Monterrey - The new commercial area in Monterrey is expected to open by mid-next year [36] Question: Major maintenance investments in MDP - Approximately 17% of the total MDP investments for the next five years will be for major maintenance [41] Question: Excess concession tax on aeronautical revenues - The excess was incorporated as an additional reference value for recent negotiations and is being recovered through maximum tariff adjustments [44][45] Question: Traffic expectations for 2026 - The company anticipates low to mid-single digit growth in traffic for 2026 [68] Question: Commercial revenues per passenger and diversification growth - Commercial revenue per passenger ended 2025 at MXN 62, with expectations for similar amounts in 2026 [89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total passenger traffic reached 28.8 million, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2024, with domestic traffic growing by 8% and international traffic by 12% [6][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was MXN 10.2 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 74.5% [9] - For Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA grew by 5.9% to MXN 2.6 billion, with a margin of 73.6% [11][18] - Consolidated net income for Q4 was MXN 1.2 billion, a 3.6% increase year-over-year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aeronautical revenues increased by approximately 12% year-over-year, while non-aeronautical revenues also grew by about 12% [9] - Restaurant revenues grew by 22%, VIP lounges revenues increased by 30%, and parking revenues rose by 13% compared to 2024 [8] - OMA Carga revenues recorded a 9% increase, driven by higher volumes and improved operational efficiencies [9][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seat capacity across airports increased by close to 11% during 2025, reflecting improved aircraft deployment [5] - The company opened 35 new routes in 2025, with 24 being domestic and 11 international, enhancing connectivity [5][6] - Monterrey Airport has expanded its long-haul connectivity, including new routes to Madrid and Paris [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Master Development Program (MDP) for 2026-2030 was approved, with an investment commitment of approximately MXN 16 billion focused on capacity expansion and quality enhancements [3][4] - The MDP emphasizes sustainability and decarbonization, with initiatives aimed at improving energy efficiency and supporting long-term emission reduction targets [4] - The company aims to maximize the use of current assets while ensuring disciplined capital allocation [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that traffic levels today are materially higher than five years ago, indicating improved capital efficiency per passenger [4] - The company anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth in traffic for 2026 [66] - Management expressed confidence in the structural growth outlook of their airports, supported by the approved MDP [5] Other Important Information - The company expects a 6.9% increase in passenger fees starting April 10, 2026, with a target to reach close to 100% of the maximum tariff over the next 2-3 years [32][34] - Total investments in Q4, including MDP investments, amounted to MXN 755 million [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Major maintenance provision details - The MXN 260 million major maintenance provision reflects expected expenditures for 2026-2030 and timing changes [21][22] Question: Passenger fee increases - A 6.9% increase in passenger fees is expected, with 93% of the maximum tariff anticipated to be reached by the end of the year [32][34] Question: Investment timing in Monterrey - The new commercial area in Monterrey is expected to open by mid-next year [35] Question: Major maintenance in MDP - Major maintenance projects represent approximately 17% of the total MDP for the next five years [40][41] Question: Concession tax on aeronautical revenues - The excess concession tax is being recovered through maximum tariff adjustments starting January 1st of this year [44] Question: Traffic expectations for 2026 - The company anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth in traffic for 2026 [66] Question: Demand elasticity and new route additions - The company believes that the tariff increases will not significantly impact traffic elasticity, with 20 new routes confirmed for the year [78][83]

Group 1 - The core focus is on the upcoming events related to the airport in central northern Mexico (OMAB.US) that are worth monitoring [1] - The company forecasts its revenue for Q4 2025 to be 45.685 billion Mexican pesos, with the exact release date of the report yet to be announced [2] - The market will closely watch the actual revenue and earnings per share (EPS) against the forecasted figures [2] Group 2 - Following the Q4 2025 earnings report, the company is expected to hold a conference call to discuss operational details and future outlook, which may provide further insights into operational dynamics [3] - Institutional ratings may influence market sentiment, and any updates from other institutions regarding ratings or target prices will be noteworthy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming events regarding the Mexican airport operator (OMAB.US) are significant and warrant attention until February 2026 [1] Group 1: Performance and Operational Situation - The revenue forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 is set at 45.685 billion Mexican pesos, with the exact release date yet to be announced. Market participants will closely monitor the actual revenue and earnings per share against this forecast [2] - Following the release of the fourth quarter financial report, the company is expected to hold an earnings call to discuss operational details and future outlook, which may provide further insights into operational dynamics [3] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Changes in institutional ratings could impact market sentiment, and any updates from other institutions regarding ratings or target prices should be noted [4]

Group 1 - Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (NASDAQ:OMAB), known as OMA, is recognized as one of the best Mexican stocks to invest in [1] - Jefferies has maintained a Buy rating for OMA and set a price target of $135 for the shares [2] - OMA operates 13 airports in central and northern Mexico, including key locations such as Monterrey, Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Chihuahua [3] Group 2 - OMA announced a second cash dividend installment for 2025, scheduled for November 27, amounting to 2.25 billion Mexican pesos, which corresponds to 5.77 Mexican pesos per share [2] - The total approved dividend for 2025 is 4.5 billion Mexican pesos, with the full-year dividend per share reaching 11.54 Mexican pesos [2]

Core Insights - Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) is characterized as a "cash flow machine" indicating strong financial performance and operational efficiency [1] Company Analysis - The analysis highlights the company's ability to generate significant cash flow, which is a critical factor for long-term investment potential [1] - The focus is on identifying undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, suggesting that OMAB may be an attractive investment opportunity due to its overlooked value [1] Market Context - The analyst's background in macroeconomic research provides a comprehensive view of the market dynamics affecting OMAB, particularly in the context of the Latin American economic landscape [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total passenger traffic reached 7.6 million, an 8% increase year over year [3] - Aeronautical revenues increased by 11%, with aeronautical revenue per passenger rising by 3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% to 2.7 billion pesos, with a margin of 74.8% [5][10] - Consolidated net income was 1.5 billion pesos, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [10] - Total debt at the end of September was 13.6 billion pesos, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.9 times [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic passenger traffic grew by 7%, primarily driven by Monterrey Airport [3] - International passenger traffic increased by 11%, with significant contributions from routes to San Francisco and Dallas [4] - Commercial revenues grew by 7%, with parking, restaurants, VIP lounges, and retail being the main contributors [4][8] - Industrial services revenues increased by 53%, driven by higher leased square meters and contractual rent increases [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The occupancy rate for commercial space stood at 96% at the end of the quarter [4] - The overall traffic growth expectation for the year is between 7% and 8% [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding capacity and commercial opportunities at Monterrey Airport, with half of the Master Development Program (MDP) investment allocated there [23] - The company is exploring international expansion opportunities, although no concrete transactions are currently in place [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects commercial revenues per passenger to gradually increase in line with inflation [17] - Cost pressures from AG&E and utility costs are viewed as not permanent, with ongoing analysis to maintain costs [19] Other Important Information - Total investments in Q3 amounted to 472 million pesos, including major maintenance and strategic investments [5] - The negotiation process for the next MDP is on track, with expectations for a resolution in December [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Traffic expectations for Q4 and 2026 - Management expects overall traffic growth for the year to be between 7% and 8%, with next year's growth anticipated in the low to mid-single digits [14] Question: Drivers behind the decline in commercial revenue per passenger - The decline is attributed to one-time revenues recorded in the previous year, with expectations for gradual increases in future quarters [17] Question: Outlook on AG&E and utility cost pressures - Cost pressures are not expected to be permanent, with management actively analyzing alternatives to control costs [19] Question: Capital allocation for the next MDP and international expansion - Half of the MDP will be allocated to Monterrey, focusing on capacity expansion and commercial opportunities, while international expansion opportunities are being explored [23]