Core Insights - Onto Innovation Inc. reported Q3 2025 earnings of $0.92 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.8%, but down from $1.34 in the prior year [1][9] - The company experienced a 13.5% year-over-year decline in revenues, totaling $218.2 million, which was slightly below the consensus mark but above the midpoint of its guidance [2][9] Revenue Breakdown - Specialty devices and advanced packaging revenues accounted for 52% of total revenues, amounting to $113 million, with expectations to rebound to approximately $150 million in Q4 [3] - Revenues from advanced nodes were $54 million, representing 25% of total revenues, with a forecast to double to about $300 million in 2025 from $148.5 million in 2024 [3] - Software and services revenues were $51 million, making up 23% of total revenues [3] Technology Highlights - Onto's Dragonfly 3Di technology was qualified by two major high-bandwidth memory customers, securing orders for 2.5D logic applications essential for AI accelerators and advanced GPUs [4] - Initial shipments of Atlas G6 OCD systems were made to leading logic and memory customers, with more shipments planned for Q4, indicating strong ongoing demand [4] Q4 Outlook - The company anticipates about 18% revenue growth in Q4, primarily driven by strong demand for 2.5D packaging, with revenues expected to range between $250 million and $265 million [5][11] - Gross margin is projected to improve by about 50 basis points sequentially, with a forecasted range of 53.5% to 55% [12] Margin and Expenses - Non-GAAP gross margin was reported at 54%, slightly down from 54.5% in the previous year, impacted by tariff effects [6] - Non-GAAP operating income decreased to $46.1 million from $70 million year-over-year, with operating expenses rising to $71.9 million [6][7] Liquidity Position - As of September 27, the company had $983.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, with total current liabilities of $162.9 million [8] - The company generated a record $83.4 million in cash from operations, representing a cash conversion of 185% of non-GAAP net income [10] Acquisition Plans - Onto Innovation plans to acquire Semilab for $432.3 million in cash and 641,771 shares, valuing the deal at approximately $495 million, which is about $50 million lower than the original terms [10]

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分组1 - Onto Innovation reported quarterly earnings of $0.92 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.87 per share, but down from $1.34 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +5.75% [1] - The company posted revenues of $218.19 million for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.02%, and down from $252.21 million year-over-year [2] - Onto Innovation has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, while also topping consensus revenue estimates three times in the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 18.6% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.24 on revenues of $257.3 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.89 on revenues of $995.73 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Nanotechnology sector is currently in the top 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $218.2 million, slightly ahead of the midpoint of previous guidance [11] - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54%, impacted by approximately one percentage point due to tariffs [11] - Operating margins were 21.1%, exceeding the top end of guidance [11] - Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.92, towards the high end of guidance [11] - Cash from operations increased sequentially to $83 million from $58 million in Q2, representing cash conversion of approximately 185% of non-GAAP net income [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advanced nodes generated revenue of $54 million, or 25% of total revenue, with expected full-year revenue of approximately $300 million, doubling from $148.5 million in 2024 [11][12] - Specialty device and advanced packaging revenue was $113 million, or approximately 52% of revenue, with a strong rebound expected in Q4 [12] - Software and services revenue was $51 million, comprising the remaining 23% of Q3 results [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects revenue growth of approximately 18% at the midpoint of Q4 guidance, primarily driven by 2.5D packaging customers [7] - Advanced packaging revenue is expected to nearly double from Q3, driven by strong demand for DragonFly systems [8] - Global AI infrastructure investments could reach $3 trillion-$4 trillion by the end of the decade, reshaping the semiconductor supply chain [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its leadership position in advanced packaging and advanced nodes markets [4] - Strategic initiatives include new product adoption, advancing offshoring activities, and preparing for the integration of the Semilab transaction [4] - The company plans to ramp up production capabilities in Asia, aiming to ship over 60% of production demand from international locations by the end of Q1 2026 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects organic growth in 2026, with momentum building towards the second half of the year [17] - The long-term outlook for AI and advanced node investments is positive, driven by aggressive infrastructure expansion plans globally [17] - Management noted that while quarterly performance may show variation, sequential growth is expected in the first half of next year [9] Other Important Information - The pending acquisition of Semilab is expected to close in the coming weeks and be accretive to both revenue and earnings in 2026 [10] - The company will switch to a quarterly calendar schedule starting Q1 2026 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic growth in advanced packaging and advanced nodes - Management indicated that the first half of 2026 is expected to show sequential growth, with more significant growth in the second half driven by customer expansions and new product adoption [20][21] Question: Gross margin outlook for next year - Management expects tariff impacts to mitigate next quarter, with more meaningful gross margin expansion anticipated in mid to late 2026 as offshore factories ramp up [22][23] Question: Clarification on 2.5D packaging growth - Management confirmed that the sequential growth mentioned was primarily driven by AI packaging and strong demand for DragonFly systems [26][28] Question: Qualification of 3DI tool and its impact - Management expressed hope to be the first choice for HBM4 and noted that the 3DI technology is tied to improving yields through new applications [32][40] Question: Timing of revenue from DragonFly - Management expects incremental revenue from DragonFly in the first half of 2026, with more meaningful revenue anticipated in the second half as customer adoption ramps up [36][38] Question: Visibility on HBM progression - Management noted that visibility is improving, but discussions with suppliers regarding allocations are still ongoing [56][57] Question: Impact of memory market strength on future orders - Management indicated that existing VPAs cover the current year, with discussions now focused on new VPAs for the next year and beyond [51]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $218.2 million, a decrease of 13.5% year-over-year from $252.2 million in Q3 2024[7] - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 50.7%, down from 54.1% in Q3 2024; non-GAAP gross margin was 54.0%, compared to 54.5% in Q3 2024[7] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $23.7 million, or 10.9% of revenue, down from $53.1 million, or 21.0% of revenue, in Q3 2024[7] - Net income for the three months ended September 27, 2025, was $28.224 million, compared to $53.051 million in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of 46.8%[31] - Non-GAAP net income for the three months ended September 27, 2025, was $45.125 million, down from $66.386 million in the prior year[31] - Diluted earnings per share for the three months ended September 27, 2025, was $0.92, compared to $1.34 for the same period in 2024[28] Cash Flow and Assets - The company generated record cash from operations of approximately $83.4 million in Q3 2025, representing 185% conversion of non-GAAP net income[6] - Total assets as of September 27, 2025, were $2.186 billion, an increase from $2.117 billion at the end of 2024[25] - Cash and short-term investments at the end of Q3 2025 totaled $983.9 million, up from $852.3 million at the end of 2024[25] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, the company expects revenue between $250 million and $265 million, with GAAP diluted earnings per share projected to be between $0.85 and $1.00[10] - Non-GAAP net income for Q4 2025 is expected to be $28.2 million, or earnings per share of $0.57, compared to $53.1 million, or earnings per share of $1.07, in Q4 2024[9] - The company provided guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, estimating U.S. GAAP operating income between $39.8 million and $48.3 million, with an EPS range of $0.85 to $1.00[32] Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased to $32.493 million for the three months ended September 27, 2025, from $28.277 million in the prior year, indicating a focus on innovation[27] Product Developments - The company shipped initial Atlas® G6 OCD systems to several leading logic and memory customers, with additional shipments scheduled for Q4 2025[6] - The Dragonfly® 3Di™ technology is now fully qualified by two major high bandwidth memory (HBM) customers, with orders secured for 2.5D logic applications supporting AI packaging[6]

Industry Overview - Nanotechnology stocks represent companies focused on developing, manufacturing, or commercializing technologies and materials at the nanoscale, which ranges from approximately 1 to 100 nanometers. These include advanced materials, nanoelectronics, targeted drug-delivery systems, and nanosensors [2] - These stocks offer thematic exposure to high-growth, often early-stage and technically specialized fields, making them potentially more volatile and speculative [2] Company Summaries Onto Innovation (ONTO) - Onto Innovation Inc. specializes in designing, developing, manufacturing, and supporting process control tools for optical metrology. The company provides lithography systems and process control analytical software, along with process and yield management solutions [3] Nano Dimension (NNDM) - Nano Dimension Ltd. engages in additive manufacturing solutions, offering 3D printers that produce high-performance electronic devices (Hi-PEDs) using proprietary conductive and dielectric substances. The company also provides micro additive manufacturing systems and industrial additive manufacturing systems for fabricating ceramic and metal parts [4] NVE Corporation (NVEC) - NVE Corporation develops and sells devices utilizing spintronics, a nanotechnology that leverages electron spin for data acquisition, storage, and transmission. The company manufactures spintronic products, including sensors and couplers [5] Clene Inc. (CLNN) - Clene Inc. is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel clean-surfaced nanotechnology therapeutics. Its lead drug candidate, CNM-Au8, is undergoing various clinical trials for conditions such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), chronic optic neuropathy, and Parkinson's Disease [6][7]

Company Performance - Onto Innovation (ONTO) closed at $133.08, reflecting a +2.07% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.4% [1] - Prior to the latest trading session, ONTO shares had gained 8.13%, surpassing the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 2.27% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.02% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings disclosure is highly anticipated, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87, indicating a 35.07% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $218.24 million, reflecting a 13.47% decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4.89 per share and revenue of $995.73 million, showing changes of -8.43% and +0.85% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates are crucial as they often indicate shifts in near-term business trends, with positive alterations suggesting analyst optimism [3] Valuation Metrics - Onto Innovation is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 26.68, which aligns with the industry average [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.89, matching the industry average, indicating a balance between earnings growth expectations and valuation [7] Industry Context - The Nanotechnology industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 232, placing it in the bottom 7% of over 250 industries [7] - The strength of individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Performance - Onto Innovation (ONTO) closed at $139.83, with a +1.89% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - Prior to the latest trading session, Onto Innovation's shares had increased by 33.68%, significantly surpassing the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 8.78% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.94% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Onto Innovation to report earnings of $0.89 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 33.58% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $218.24 million, indicating a 13.47% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4.92 per share and revenue of $992.52 million, showing changes of -7.87% and +0.53% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Onto Innovation are important as they reflect changes in short-term business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Onto Innovation currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 27.91, which aligns with the industry average [7] - The PEG ratio for Onto Innovation is 0.93, consistent with the Nanotechnology industry's average PEG ratio of 0.93 [7] Industry Context - The Nanotechnology industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 235, placing it in the bottom 5% of over 250 industries [8]

Group 1 - Onto Innovation Inc. shares increased over 4% in pre-market trading after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $170 from $100 [1] - Jefferies expressed improved confidence in Onto's ability to regain lost CoWoS market share following recent management meetings [1] - Revenue is expected to bottom in the first quarter of 2026 before reaccelerating in the second half of the year, driven by ongoing accelerator builds and tightening memory markets [1] Group 2 - Jefferies raised its earnings forecasts to $5.55 for 2026 and $7.08 for 2027, applying a 24x multiple on 2027 EPS to derive the new target [2]

Upgrades - Jefferies upgraded Onto Innovation (ONTO) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $170, up from $100, citing expected growth reacceleration in the second half of 2026 [2] - Bernstein upgraded United Rentals (URI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $1,128, up from $885, indicating a 20% upside from current levels, viewing it as a cyclical rebound and portfolio transition story [2] - Guggenheim upgraded Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $206, up from $167, expressing confidence in the company's navigation of Stelara's loss of exclusivity and anticipating growth from its Innovative Medicine business [3] - Wells Fargo upgraded Omnicom (OMC) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $91, up from $78, highlighting compelling upside potential near the close of the Interpublic Group merger [4] - Wells Fargo also upgraded CoreWeave (CRWV) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $170, up from $105, noting the company's positioning to benefit from elevated build cycles and hyperscaler industry shortages into 2026 [5] - Melius Research upgraded CoreWeave to Buy from Hold with a price target of $165, up from $128 [5] Downgrades - Baird downgraded Lululemon (LULU) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $195, down from $225, due to low near-term confidence in growth and margin trajectory [6] - KeyBanc downgraded Lam Research (LRCX) to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target, believing strong memory pricing may take time to drive new tool demand [6] - Citizens JMP downgraded CyberArk (CYBR) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, citing the pending acquisition by Palo Alto Networks and not anticipating a superior proposal [6] - Seaport Research downgraded Oklo (OKLO) to Neutral from Buy without a price target, acknowledging positives in business development but stepping aside based on valuation [6] - Jefferies downgraded Vistra (VST) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $230, down from $241, following a 160% stock run-up attributed to expectations of a Comanche Peak nuclear deal [6]