Investor 2023 Q2 Relations Reserving and cohort pricing Information Relevant to this Presentation Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this presentation and related comments by management during the earnings callnot based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “p ...

Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call August 2, 2023 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director Gary Traicoff - Corporate Actuary Jim Curtis - Personal Lines Controller Conference Call Participants Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co. Tracy Benguigui - Barclays Bank Joshua Shanker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Yaron Kinar - Jefferi ...

Premium Growth and Policy Performance - Net premiums written grew 18% year-over-year to $14.7 billion in Q2 2023, driven by policy growth and rate increases[112] - Policies in force increased by 12% year-over-year to 29.6 million, with personal auto products showing strong growth[112] - Personal auto policies in force grew between 10% and 17% across all consumer segments in Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year[187] - Companywide total policies in force increased by 12% to 29,576.8 thousand in Q2 2023 from 26,509.1 thousand in Q2 2022[183] - Net premiums written for Personal Lines increased by 22% to $11,600.1 million in Q2 2023 compared to $9,472.5 million in Q2 2022[183] - Total underwriting operations net premiums written grew by 18% to $14,716.9 million in Q2 2023 from $12,422.1 million in Q2 2022[183] - Total Personal Lines net premiums earned grew 23% to $11,387.9 million in Q2 2023 from $9,272.4 million in Q2 2022[183] - Commercial Lines net premiums written increased by 2% to $2,366.4 million in Q2 2023 compared to $2,308.8 million in Q2 2022[183] Underwriting Performance and Losses - Combined ratio increased by 4.8 points to 100.4 in Q2 2023, primarily due to unfavorable prior accident years reserve development and higher catastrophe losses[109] - Catastrophe losses contributed 7.1 points to the underwriting loss in Q2 2023, with nearly 60% of losses in vehicle businesses[111] - Property business experienced a 33.2% underwriting loss margin in Q2 2023, with 66.7 points attributed to catastrophic weather events[117] - Underwriting profit for Personal Lines - Agency decreased to $(71.2) million with a margin of (1.4)% in Q2 2023, compared to $260.3 million and 6.0% margin in Q2 2022[154] - Total underwriting operations reported a loss of $(64.3) million with a margin of (0.4)% in Q2 2023, down from $538.5 million and 4.4% margin in Q2 2022[154] - Catastrophe losses reduced underwriting profitability by 7.1 points in Q2 2023 and 4.5 points in the first six months of 2023, compared to 4.3 points and 2.8 points respectively in the same periods last year[154] - Total incurred losses and LAE increased to $12,170.1 million in Q2 2023 from $9,421.1 million in Q2 2022[159] - The total loss and LAE ratio increased by 6.5 points in Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased severity and higher catastrophe losses[160] - Net catastrophe losses incurred totaled $1,024.6 million in Q2 2023, up from $528.3 million in Q2 2022[161] - The company experienced 19 catastrophic weather events in Q2 2023, compared to 23 events in Q2 2022[161] Investment Performance - Net income increased by 164% year-over-year in Q2 2023, driven by net realized gains on securities and a 55% increase in recurring investment income[114] - The fair value of the investment portfolio rose to $59.3 billion at June 30, 2023, up from $53.5 billion at December 31, 2022[134] - Recurring investment income generated a pretax book yield of 3.1% in Q2 2023, up from 2.3% in Q2 2022[136] - Pretax recurring investment book yield (annualized) increased to 3.1% in Q2 2023 from 2.3% in Q2 2022, and to 3.0% in the first six months of 2023 from 2.1% in the same period last year[205] - The total portfolio value as of June 30, 2023, was $59.27 billion, with fixed-income securities accounting for 95.4% ($56.56 billion) and common equities making up 4.6% ($2.71 billion)[209] - U.S. government obligations represented 53.3% ($31.60 billion) of the portfolio as of June 30, 2023, up from 36.0% ($18.72 billion) in June 2022[209] - Corporate debt securities accounted for 17.4% ($10.30 billion) of the portfolio as of June 30, 2023, slightly down from 19.6% ($10.17 billion) in June 2022[209] - The fixed-income portfolio had a duration of 2.9 years as of June 30, 2023, within the acceptable range of 1.5 to 5 years[217] - The portfolio's credit quality rating was AA as of June 30, 2023, with 26.9% of the fixed-income portfolio allocated to 5-year duration securities[218] - Group I securities (higher risk) made up 7.6% ($4.52 billion) of the portfolio as of June 30, 2023, down from 11.4% ($5.90 billion) in June 2022[212] - Group II securities (lower risk) accounted for 92.4% ($54.74 billion) of the portfolio as of June 30, 2023, up from 88.6% ($46.03 billion) in June 2022[212] - The fixed-maturity portfolio had total after-tax net unrealized losses of $2.6 billion as of June 30, 2023, compared to $2.2 billion in June 2022[213] - Equity securities had net holding period gains of $1.92 billion as of June 30, 2023, up from $1.84 billion in December 2022[215] - The portfolio's short-term investments decreased to 2.5% ($1.49 billion) as of June 30, 2023, from 8.9% ($4.61 billion) in June 2022[212] - AAA-rated fixed-income portfolio increased to 68.4% in June 2023, up from 57.7% in June 2022[219] - The company expects approximately $3.1 billion (13%) of principal repayment from its fixed-income portfolio during the remainder of 2023[220] - Total asset-backed securities decreased to $9,845.8 million in June 2023, down from $11,929.9 million in June 2022[221] - Residential mortgage-backed securities decreased by 3.1% in value during the second quarter of 2023[222] - The CMBS portfolio experienced a 14.4% decrease in value during the second quarter of 2023 due to commercial real estate market volatility[225] - The CMBS portfolio has no delinquencies as of the end of the second quarter of 2023[225] - The average original loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for the CMBS portfolio ranges from 51.9% to 66.5% across different maturity years[227] - The average current debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) for the CMBS portfolio ranges from 1.8 to 3.7 across different maturity years[227] - Automobile and equipment categories saw additions in Q2 2023, with a total fair value of $1,481.3 million and $820.8 million respectively, representing 63.7% of the total portfolio[229] - Municipal securities portfolio increased modestly in Q2 2023, with total fair value reaching $2,154.7 million, including $472.2 million in single-family housing revenue bonds[230][231] - Corporate debt securities portfolio decreased to $10.3 billion in Q2 2023 from $10.7 billion in Q1 2023, with a reduction in high-yield securities exposure[233] - Preferred stocks portfolio declined to $1.1 billion in Q2 2023 from $1.3 billion in Q1 2023, primarily due to called or sold securities with less attractive risk/reward profiles[235][236] - Common equities portfolio held 762 out of 1,008 stocks in the Russell 1000 Index, representing 95% of the index's total market capitalization[239] - Total fair value of the fixed-income portfolio decreased by 4.4% in Q2 2023, with the largest declines in asset-backed securities (-11.2%) and equipment (-10.8%)[229] - Revenue bonds supported by individual mortgages held by state housing finance agencies had an overall credit quality rating of AA+[231] - Corporate debt securities made up approximately 18% of the fixed-income portfolio in Q2 2023, down from 20% in Q1 2023[233] - Approximately 82% of preferred stocks pay dividends with tax preferential characteristics[236] - The majority of common stock portfolio holdings are selected based on their correlation with the Russell 1000 Index, with a year-to-date total return within the targeted tracking error of +/- 50 basis points[239] - The duration of financial instruments subject to interest rate risk was 2.9 years at both June 30, 2023, and December 31, 2022, and 2.8 years at June 30, 2022[243] - The weighted average beta of the equity portfolio was 1.04 at June 30, 2023, and 1.00 at both June 30, 2022, and December 31, 2022[243] - The company has not experienced a material impact compared to the tabular presentations of interest rate and market risk-sensitive instruments in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022[243] Personal Auto and Commercial Auto Performance - Personal auto incurred severity increased by 12% year-over-year in Q2 2023, while accident frequency rose by 1%[119] - Personal auto rates increased by an aggregate countrywide net of 7% in Q2 2023, following a 4% increase in Q1 2023[121] - Snapshot adoption rates increased by 40% in Agency auto and nearly 10% in Direct auto year-over-year in Q2 2023[129] - Trailing 12-month total personal auto policy life expectancy increased by 1% compared to last year, marking the first positive trend since early 2022[132] - Direct channel trailing 12-month policy life expectancy increased by 2%, while the Agency channel remained flat[132] - Trailing 3-month policy life expectancy for total personal auto surged by 40% compared to the same period last year[132] - Trailing 12-month policy life expectancy increased by 4% in special lines and 7% in Property, but decreased by 11% in Commercial Lines[133] - Personal auto business severity increased by 12% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-to-date, driven by inflation impacting vehicle and repair costs[167] - Commercial auto products' incurred severity increased by 7% in Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year, excluding TNC, BOP, and Protective Insurance products[168] - Commercial auto products' incurred frequency increased by 2% in Q2 2023 on a trailing 12-month basis, excluding Protective Insurance and TNC business[169] - 80% of the total unfavorable development in H1 2023 was in personal auto products, with half due to higher severity in auto property and physical damage coverages[174] - Florida contributed approximately 40% to prior accident year reserve development year-to-date across all personal auto product lines[175] - Property damage coverage severity trends increased significantly, with over 80% of prior year development from the 2022 accident year[176] - Written premium per policy for new and renewal Agency auto business increased 11% and 8% respectively in Q2 2023 compared to Q2 2022[192] - Direct auto applications increased 14% in Q2 2023 and 16% year-to-date, driven by growth in both new and renewal applications[193] - Agency auto quote volume increased 16% in Q2 2023 and 15% year-to-date, with conversion rates up 29% and 39% respectively[191] - Personal auto rate increases implemented in 27 states during Q2 2023 resulted in an aggregate rate increase of about 7%[187] - Direct auto quote volume decreased 7% in Q2 2023 but increased 32% in the first six months of 2023, with conversion rates rising by 35% and 21% respectively[194] - Written premium per policy for new and renewal Direct auto business increased by 5% and 7% in Q2 2023, and 6% and 8% in the first six months of 2023[194] - Commercial auto new application growth was positive in all business markets except for-hire transportation, with quote volume increasing 8% in Q2 2023 and 5% in the first six months of 2023[196] - Written premium per policy for new commercial auto business decreased 4% in Q2 2023 and 5% in the first six months of 2023, while renewal business increased 3% and 4% respectively[197] Property Business Performance - Property business new applications increased 12% in Q2 2023 and 12% year-to-date, driven by underwriting changes in less volatile weather states[198] - New applications in growth-oriented states for Property business were up about 50% in Q2 2023 and the first six months of 2023[199] - The Property business reinsurance program includes coverage for $2.0 billion in damages, with additional substantial coverage for a second or third hurricane[163] - The new aggregate excess of loss reinsurance contract has a first retention layer threshold ranging from $500 million to $575 million, excluding named tropical storms and hurricanes[164] - Reinsurance coverage limits are $100 million for non-named storm property catastrophe losses and $85 million for other events[165] Expense Management and Ratios - Advertising spend decreased by 34% in Q2 2023, reducing the contribution to the combined ratio by 2.0 points[112] - Underwriting expense ratio decreased by 1.7 points in Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year, driven by a 34% reduction in advertising spend[180] - Non-acquisition expense ratio (NAER) increased by 0.4 points in Commercial Lines and 0.7 points in Property businesses in Q2 2023 compared to the same period last year[181] Capital and Shareholder Equity - Total capital (debt plus shareholders' equity) increased to $23.6 billion at June 30, 2023, compared to $22.0 billion at June 30, 2022[140] - The company repurchased 0.3 million common shares in the first six months of 2023 at a total cost of $40.1 million[144] Tax and Financial Metrics - The company reported recoverable income taxes of $44.0 million at June 30, 2023, compared to net current income taxes payable of $114.0 million at June 30, 2022[201] - Net federal deferred tax assets were $1.2 billion at June 30, 2023, compared to $1.0 billion at June 30, 2022[201] - The effective tax rate for the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, was 20.7% and 19.9%, respectively, compared to 14.6% and 6.8% for the same periods last year[203] Reinsurance and Reserve Development - Calendar-year actuarial adjustments totaled $490.4 million for Q2 2023, with prior accident years contributing $206.9 million and current accident year contributing $283.5 million[172]

Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2023 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director John Sauerland - VP & CFO Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines Jonathan Bauer - CIO Conference Call Participants Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities Brian Meredith - UBS Andrew Kligerman - Crédit Suisse Jamminder Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co. David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Tracy Beng ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2023 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number: 001-09518 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Ohio 34-0963169 (State or other jurisd ...

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2022 Results Conference Call February 28, 2023 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Doug Constantine - Director, IR Tricia Griffith - CEO Jim Haas - Business Leader, Personal Lines Telematics Cory Fischer - Business Leader, Commercial Lines Product Development John Sauerland - CFO Conference Call Participants Michael Zaremski - BMO David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs Andrew Kligerman - Credit Suisse Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Tracy Benguigui - Ba ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K (Mark One) ☒ Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from __________to__________ Commission file number 001-09518 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Ohio 34-0963169 (State o ...

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call November 2, 2022 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Doug Constantine - Director of Investor Relations Tricia Griffith - President & Chief Executive Officer Pat Callahan - President of Personal Lines John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley Mike Zaremski - BMO Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs Greg Peters - Raymond James David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Gary ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2022 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2022 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------|---- ...