Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation reported first-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.65, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.72, but showing a year-over-year increase of 24.6% [1] Financial Performance - Net premiums written reached $22.2 billion, a 17% increase from $19 billion a year ago [1] - Net premiums earned grew by 20% to $19.4 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.2 billion [1] - Operating revenues increased by 20.7% year over year to $20.6 billion, driven by a 20.2% rise in net premiums earned, a 31.7% increase in net investment income, a 21.6% rise in fees, and a 32.1% increase in service revenue, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.4 billion [2] - Total expenses rose by 20.1% to $64.7 billion, due to a 16.7% increase in losses and loss adjustment expenses, an 18.2% rise in policy acquisition costs, and a 40.8% surge in other underwriting expenses [2] - The net realized loss on securities was $212 million, compared to a gain of $156 million in the same quarter last year [3] - The combined ratio improved by 10 basis points to 86% from the prior-year quarter [3] Policy Growth - Policies in force in the Personal Lines segment increased by 18% year over year to 35.1 million [4] - The Personal Auto segment saw Agency Auto policies increase by 18% to 10.1 million and Direct Auto policies rise by 25% to 14.8 million [4] - The Commercial Auto segment policies rose by 6% year over year to 1.2 million, while the Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 11% [4] Financial Metrics - Progressive's book value per share was $49.39 as of March 30, 2025, up 32.6% from $33.80 a year earlier [5] - Return on equity was 39.3% in March 2025, an increase from 34% reported in the previous year [5] - The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved by 480 basis points to 19.2% [5] Market Position - Progressive currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]

For the quarter ended March 2025, Progressive (PGR) reported revenue of $20.62 billion, up 20.7% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $4.65, compared to $3.73 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.24% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.37 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $4.72, the EPS surprise was -1.48%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expe ...

Progressive (PGR) came out with quarterly earnings of $4.65 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.72 per share. This compares to earnings of $3.73 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -1.48%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurer would post earnings of $3.43 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.08, delivering a surprise of 18.95%.Over the last four quarters, the company has s ...

Insurance provider expands Motor Truck Cargo coverage to offer broader protection MAYFIELD VILLAGE, Ohio, April 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Progressive Insurance today announced the launch of Cargo Plus, a new endorsement that expands Motor Truck Cargo coverage purchased by for-hire truckers and other eligible customers. Motor Truck Cargo coverage offers protection in the event a trucker is legally liable for damage to covered property while in the trucker's exclusive physical custody and control. The new Carg ...

Financial Performance - Net premiums written for March 2025 reached $9,041 million, a 17% increase from $7,746 million in March 2024[2] - Net premiums earned for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, were $19,409 million, reflecting a 20% growth compared to $16,149 million in the same quarter of 2024[2] - Net income for the month of March 2025 was $522 million, a decrease of 42% from $893 million in March 2024; however, year-to-date net income increased by 10% to $2,567 million from $2,331 million[2][6] - The company reported total revenues of $20,409 million for the year-to-date period, a 18% increase from $17,243 million in the same period of 2024[6] - Net Premiums Written (NPW) increased by 20% year-to-date, totaling $22,206 million, with a growth of 17% in Vehicles and 25% in Personal Lines Business[12] - Net Premiums Earned (NPE) grew by 20% year-to-date, reaching $19,409 million, with a 23% increase in Companywide performance[12] Operational Efficiency - The combined ratio for March 2025 was 90.9, up from 84.3 in March 2024, indicating a deterioration of 6.6 percentage points[2] - The combined ratio improved to 86.0%, down from 87.5% in the previous period, indicating better operational efficiency[12] - The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio for the month was 69.8%, compared to 70.9% in the previous year, showing improvement[10] - The loss/LAE ratio for the calendar year stands at 65.8%, reflecting effective claims management[12] Shareholder Information - Shareholders' equity is reported at $28,954 million, with a book value per common share of $49.39[14] - The company achieved a trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity of 34.2%[14] - The debt-to-total capital ratio is at 19.2%, indicating a strong capital structure[14] Future Outlook and Engagement - The company plans to release April results on May 21, 2025, before market opens, signaling ongoing transparency in financial reporting[17] - The first quarter Investor Relations conference call is scheduled for May 6, 2025, providing an opportunity for stakeholder engagement[16] Innovation and Customer Experience - Progressive continues to innovate with tools like Name Your Price and Snapshot, enhancing customer experience and competitive positioning[18] Policy Growth - Policies in force for personal lines increased by 18% year-over-year, totaling 35,130 thousand policies as of March 31, 2025[2]

Financial Performance - The Progressive Corporation reported net premiums written of $9,041 million for March 2025, a 17% increase from $7,746 million in March 2024 [1] - Net premiums earned for March 2025 were $6,787 million, reflecting a 20% increase compared to $5,634 million in March 2024 [1] - The company reported a net income of $522 million for March 2025, a decrease of 42% from $893 million in March 2024 [1] - Earnings per share available to common shareholders decreased by 42% to $0.89 in March 2025 from $1.52 in March 2024 [1] - The total pretax net realized losses on securities were $211 million in March 2025, compared to gains of $59 million in March 2024, marking a significant decline of 458% [1] - The combined ratio for March 2025 was 90.9%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from 84.3% in March 2024 [1] Policy Growth - The total number of policies in force increased to 36,292 thousand in March 2025, up 18% from 30,834 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Personal lines policies rose to 35,130 thousand, an 18% increase from 29,733 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Direct auto policies grew by 25% to 14,771 thousand in March 2025, compared to 11,855 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Agency auto policies increased by 18% to 10,146 thousand in March 2025 from 8,593 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Special lines policies saw a 9% increase to 6,637 thousand in March 2025, up from 6,076 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Property policies increased by 11% to 3,576 thousand in March 2025, compared to 3,209 thousand in March 2024 [1] - Commercial lines policies grew by 6% to 1,162 thousand in March 2025 from 1,101 thousand in March 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Earnings season is crucial for investors, with a focus on guidance due to recent tariff-induced uncertainties [1] - Notable large-cap stocks reporting this week include Progressive (PGR) and UnitedHealth (UNH), both showing strong relative performance in 2025 [1][7] UnitedHealth (UNH) Summary - UnitedHealth Group provides a comprehensive range of health benefits, leveraging data and technology through its Optum segment to enhance care delivery and health outcomes [4] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with stable earnings estimate revisions and expected 5% EPS growth on 11% higher sales [4] - Current trading at a 19.5X forward 12-month earnings multiple, aligning with the five-year median and below the five-year high of 26.6X; PEG ratio stands at 1.6X, slightly above the five-year median of 1.4X [6] Progressive (PGR) Summary - Progressive is a leading auto and property insurer in the U.S., recognized for its direct-to-consumer model and strong underwriting performance [9] - The stock also holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with earnings expectations rising significantly, up 27% over the last 60 days [9] - Projected to see a 27% year-over-year increase in EPS on nearly 20% higher sales, with a history of exceeding Zacks Consensus EPS estimates by an average of 18% in the last four releases [10] - Currently trading at a 17.6X forward 12-month earnings multiple, compared to a five-year median of 19.3X and a five-year high of 31.9X [10] Overall Market Context - The Q1 earnings season for 2025 is gaining momentum, with Progressive and UnitedHealth as key players [13] - Both companies are relatively insulated from tariff concerns due to their domestic operations, which is a significant advantage in the current political climate [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility due to the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about a potential global trade war and its impact on the U.S. economy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The baseline tariff of 10% was imposed on all imports starting April 5, 2025, with rates reaching as high as 145% for certain countries like China [2][3]. - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, having declined by 8.6% year to date, and was trading close to bear market levels last week [5]. Group 2: Featured Stocks - A selection of stocks that have provided double-digit returns year to date includes American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO), all carrying a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]. Group 3: American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates enhancing performance [7]. - The company is expanding its operations through both organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [9]. - AWK has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate [10]. Group 4: Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization expected to enhance service reliability [11]. - The company anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12]. Group 5: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand driven by the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [13]. - The company has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 60 days [16]. Group 6: The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is experiencing growth due to higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [17]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PGR are 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, with a 1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [18]. Group 7: Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is supported by a compelling portfolio and strategic initiatives that enhance its capabilities and geographic reach [19]. - The company has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [20].

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are attracted to stocks with above-average financial growth, but identifying such stocks can be challenging due to their inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Growth Stock Identification - The Zacks Growth Style Score helps identify promising growth stocks by analyzing a company's real growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - Progressive (PGR) is currently highlighted as a recommended growth stock, possessing a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is a critical factor for growth investors, with double-digit growth being particularly attractive as it signals strong future prospects [3] - Progressive's projected EPS growth for the current year is 10.9%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 1.4% [4] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - High cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, allowing them to expand without relying on external funding [5] - Progressive's year-over-year cash flow growth stands at 115.9%, far exceeding the industry average of 15.6% [5] - The company's historical annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 14.8%, compared to the industry average of 11.6% [6] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [7] - The current-year earnings estimates for Progressive have increased by 2.9% over the past month, indicating a favorable outlook [8] Group 5: Overall Assessment - Progressive has achieved a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2, reflecting positive earnings estimate revisions and suggesting it is a solid choice for growth investors [10]

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Progressive (PGR) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.Progressive currently has an average brokerage recommendation ...