Shares of The Progressive Corporation ( PGR ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 16% of their value, and shares currently sit near a 52-week low. There has been significant concern that auto insurance profitability has peaked, and those fears wereOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a questio ...

分组1 - Progressive reported quarterly earnings of $4.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44 per share, and up from $4.08 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +5.10% [1] - The company posted revenues of $22.49 billion for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.50%, and compared to year-ago revenues of $20.33 billion [2] - Progressive has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 8.6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $4.38 on revenues of $22.61 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $16.38 on revenues of $92.77 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Progressive Corporation announced the retirement of CFO John Sauerland, effective July 3, 2026, and the expected succession of Andrew Quigg as the new CFO [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - John Sauerland has served Progressive for 35 years, including the last 10 years as CFO, and his leadership has been crucial for the company's growth and success [2]. - Andrew Quigg, currently the Chief Strategy Officer, will succeed Sauerland as CFO and will collaborate with him to ensure a smooth transition [2][3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Progressive Insurance specializes in car, home, and other types of insurance, providing various options for consumers to access services conveniently [4]. - The company is the second largest personal auto insurer in the United States and a leading provider of commercial auto, motorcycle, and boat insurance, as well as one of the top 15 homeowners insurance carriers [5].

Financial Performance - The Progressive Corporation reported net premiums written of $6,313 million for December 2025, a 6% increase from $5,964 million in December 2024 [1] - Net premiums earned rose to $7,121 million in December 2025, up 6% from $6,717 million in December 2024 [1] - The company achieved a net income of $1,147 million for December 2025, reflecting a 22% increase compared to $942 million in December 2024 [1] - Earnings per share available to common shareholders increased to $1.95, a 22% rise from $1.60 in December 2024 [1] - Total pretax net realized gains on securities were $168 million in December 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of $140 million in December 2024 [1] - The combined ratio for December 2025 was 87.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from 84.1% in December 2024 [1] Policy Growth - The total number of policies in force reached 38,619 thousand by December 31, 2025, marking a 10% increase from 34,952 thousand in December 2024 [1] - Personal lines policies increased to 37,428 thousand, an 11% growth from 33,811 thousand in December 2024 [1] - Agency auto policies rose by 10% to 10,787 thousand, while direct auto policies grew by 14% to 15,993 thousand [1] - Special lines policies increased by 7% to 6,998 thousand, and property policies rose by 4% to 3,650 thousand [1] - Commercial lines policies saw a 4% increase, reaching 1,191 thousand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a revenue estimate of $21.9 billion, reflecting a 7.9% year-over-year growth [1][9]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's fourth-quarter revenues is $21.9 billion, indicating a 7.9% increase from the previous year [1][9]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $4.44, which represents an 8.8% year-over-year growth [2][9]. Earnings Surprise History - Progressive has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.84% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Progressive, as it lacks the necessary combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [4]. - PGR has an Earnings ESP of +0.69%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at $4.47, slightly above the consensus estimate of $4.44 [5]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Revenue growth is expected to be driven by higher premiums, increased net investment income, and stronger fees and service revenues, particularly in personal auto products and commercial lines [6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $20.9 billion, indicating a 9.3% increase from the previous year [7]. Business Performance Insights - The personal auto business is likely to benefit from growth in new and renewal applications, supported by increased advertising spend and competitive pricing [8]. - The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is 26.1 million [8]. Financial Metrics - PGR's combined ratio is expected to improve to 88.6%, aided by prudent underwriting practices and mild catastrophe losses [9][11]. - The consensus estimate for pretax net realized gains on securities is $84.5 million, reflecting a significant increase of 22% from the previous year [10].

Core Insights - Analysts expect Progressive (PGR) to report quarterly earnings of $4.44 per share, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $21.94 billion, up 7.9% from the previous year [1] - There has been a downward revision of 0.4% in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days, indicating a reappraisal of projections by analysts [1][2] Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Net premiums earned' is $20.93 billion, indicating a 9.3% year-over-year increase [4] - The 'Companywide Total - Combined ratio' is expected to be 88.6%, compared to 87.9% in the same quarter last year [4] - Analysts estimate 'Policies in force - Companywide Total' to be 38.60 million, up from 34.95 million year-over-year [4] Policies in Force - 'Policies in force - Total special lines' is projected to reach 7.01 million, compared to 6.52 million last year [5] - 'Policies in force - Total personal auto' is expected to be 26.72 million, up from 23.77 million year-over-year [5] - 'Policies in force - Personal Lines - Direct auto' is estimated at 15.94 million, compared to 14.00 million last year [6] - 'Policies in force - Personal Lines - Agency auto' is projected to reach 10.78 million, up from 9.78 million [6] - 'Policies in force - Total Personal Lines' is expected to be 37.40 million, compared to 33.81 million last year [7] - 'Policies in force - Total Commercial Lines' is estimated at 1.20 million, up from 1.14 million year-over-year [7] - 'Policies in force - Total Property business' is projected to reach 3.68 million, compared to 3.52 million last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Progressive have declined by 9.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.6% [8] - Currently, PGR holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [8]

Group 1: Seasonal Patterns Overview - The article discusses five seasonal trading patterns that have consistently delivered high returns over time [2][27] - These patterns are based on historical data and are designed to provide actionable trading opportunities [27] Group 2: Tapestry Inc. - Tapestry Inc. (NYSE:TPR) has a seasonal pattern that starts now, with a return on investment (ROI) of 192% over a duration of 35 days [3][5] - The company is known for luxury brands like Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman, and performs well when consumer spending confidence is high [5][6] Group 3: Costco Wholesale Corp. - Costco (NASDAQ:COST) has a seasonal pattern starting in February, with an ROI of 50% over 13 days [7][10] - The company operates on a bulk-buy model and maintains a loyal membership base, making it resilient in volatile markets [9][10] Group 4: SPDR Gold Shares - SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) has a seasonal pattern starting in March, with an ROI of 153% over 23 days [10][15] - This pattern aligns with current market momentum and is particularly relevant given the rising gold prices amid economic uncertainty [15][16] Group 5: The Progressive Corp. - The Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) has a seasonal pattern starting on May 16, with an ROI of 128% over 50 days [18][20] - The company is recognized for its strong underwriting and steady revenue, making it a reliable performer during market stress [20][21] Group 6: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has a seasonal pattern starting on October 20, with an ROI of 112% over 77 days [22][23] - As the largest bank in the U.S., it is sensitive to interest rate changes and provides insights into market sentiment [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Progressive (PGR) due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Progressive is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.44 per share, reflecting an 8.8% increase year-over-year [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $21.94 billion, indicating a 7.9% rise from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.42% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Progressive is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.79% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP reading suggests a potential earnings beat, especially when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [10]. - However, Progressive currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Progressive's actual earnings of $4.05 per share fell short of the expected $5.08, resulting in a surprise of -20.28% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Progressive has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Industry Comparison - W.R. Berkley (WRB), another player in the insurance sector, is expected to report earnings of $1.14 per share, with a year-over-year change of +0.9% [18]. - W.R. Berkley's revenue is projected at $3.75 billion, up 6.9% from the previous year, but its consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.4% [19].

Core Insights - The financial sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Paysafe Ltd (NYSE:PSFE) has an RSI of 29.9, with shares falling 7.3% to close at $7.16. The stock has a 52-week low of $6.43 and has dropped around 14% in the past five days [3][6] - Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) has an RSI of 29.6, with shares declining 0.6% to close at $202.37. The stock has a 52-week low of $199.90 and has decreased approximately 11% over the past month [4][6] - Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (NYSE:BOW) has an RSI of 29.2, with shares dipping 5% to close at $24.08. The stock has a 52-week low of $23.50 and has fallen around 16% in the past month [5][6]

Core Insights - The financial sector has identified several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Paysafe Ltd (NYSE:PSFE) has an RSI of 29.9, with shares falling 7.3% to close at $7.16. The stock has a 52-week low of $6.43 and has dropped around 14% in the past five days [3][6] - Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) has an RSI of 29.6, with shares declining 0.6% to close at $202.37. The stock has a 52-week low of $199.90 and has decreased approximately 11% over the past month [4][6] - Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (NYSE:BOW) has an RSI of 29.2, with shares dipping 5% to close at $24.08. The stock has a 52-week low of $23.50 and has fallen around 16% in the past month [5][6]