Core Insights - Recurve Capital reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, achieving a gross return of +31%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which returned +10.6% and +17.8% respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has returned +14.8% gross and +12% net [1] Company Highlights - Recurve Capital highlighted RH (NYSE:RH) as a notable stock, which experienced a one-month return of 13.37% but has lost 39.00% of its value over the past 52 weeks [2] - As of October 2, 2025, RH's stock closed at $203.79 per share, with a market capitalization of $3.82 billion [2] - Despite the negative contributions from RH and another company, Recurve Capital remains optimistic about their future performance, expecting them to become meaningful positive contributors [2] Hedge Fund Activity - RH (NYSE:RH) was held by 49 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 46 in the previous quarter [3] - While acknowledging RH's potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [3]

Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the United States, aiming to rejuvenate the American film industry, which led to a decline in shares for Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery [2][3] - The immediate market reaction included Netflix shares dropping 1.4% and Warner Bros Discovery falling 0.6% on September 29, with previous tariff threats causing even larger declines [3] - Other sectors affected included home furnishings, with Williams-Sonoma and RH experiencing significant drops in share prices due to new tariffs on furniture and lumber [4] Impact on the Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector faced a potential 100% tariff on branded drugs unless companies agreed to build manufacturing plants in the U.S. or reduce prices [6] - Pfizer secured a three-year reprieve from tariffs by committing to cut U.S. drug prices by up to 85%, resulting in a 6.8% surge in its stock price [7] - Other pharmaceutical companies, including Roche and Novartis, also saw stock gains following the Pfizer deal, indicating a positive market response to tariff negotiations [8][9] Agricultural Sector Developments - President Trump announced a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss agriculture, which is expected to be a major topic, particularly regarding soybean purchases [10] - Following hints of positive trade developments, soybean prices rebounded, with November soybeans rising 1.3% to $10.15 1/4 a bushel on October 1 [11] - The volatility in soybean prices reflects the market's sensitivity to trade news, with previous declines occurring after a lack of concrete outcomes from Trump-Xi communications [11] Regulatory Changes in Banking - The Trump administration is proposing significant changes to U.S. capital rules, aiming to reduce regulatory burdens on banks, which could lead to a decrease in capital requirements [12][13] - While large banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America may face challenges from lower interest margins, the overall sentiment in the banking sector remains optimistic about potential deregulation [13] - Critics warn that these changes could leave the financial system vulnerable, estimating a potential $200 billion reduction in banking system capital [13] Overall Market Trends - Major indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, have generally continued to rise despite the volatility caused by tariff announcements and trade negotiations [15] - The market is experiencing a "stagflation-lite" scenario, with predictions of higher inflation and unemployment linked to the ongoing tariff impacts [15] - Investors are left questioning the sustainability of market gains amid the unpredictable nature of presidential announcements and their effects on various sectors [16]

Upgrades - Barclays upgraded Charles River (CRL) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $195, up from $165, citing stabilized drug discovery demand and valuation [2] - Barclays upgraded C.H. Robinson (CHRW) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $130, up from $95, reflecting the company's AI-enabled efficiency gains in a soft market [2] - HSBC upgraded Ferrari (RACE) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $470, up from $413, anticipating double-digit earnings growth out to 2030 due to the upcoming capital markets day plan [3] - JPMorgan upgraded Corteva (CTVA) to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $70, noting that the planned split into two companies in 2026 does not diminish its value [4] - KeyBanc upgraded Nike (NKE) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a price target of $90, following solid fiscal Q1 results driven by progress on its "Win Now" actions [4] Downgrades - Roth Capital downgraded Electronic Arts (EA) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $210, up from $185, after the announcement of a $55 billion take-private deal [5] - Berenberg downgraded Mondelez (MDLZ) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $70, down from $81, expecting cocoa prices to decline in 2026 relative to 2025 [5] - William Blair downgraded RH (RH) to Market Perform from Outperform due to new tariffs on imported kitchen cabinets and furniture, starting at 25% and potentially rising to 50% [5] - Mizuho downgraded Bloom Energy (BE) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $79, up from $48, citing improved demand visibility but concerns over valuation after a recent rally [5] - Barclays downgraded Medpace (MEDP) to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $425, down from $450, due to growth deceleration and margin pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [5]

Core Insights - Financial giants are showing bullish sentiment towards RH, with 45% of traders being bullish and 45% bearish, indicating a mixed outlook in options trading [1] - The predicted price range for RH is between $175.0 and $310.0, suggesting significant interest from large players in this price window [2] - Recent options trading activity indicates a notable volume and open interest in RH's options, reflecting liquidity and trader interest [3] Options Trading Activity - Significant options trades include bullish call sweeps with total trade prices of $292.5K and $141.9K, alongside bearish put trades valued at $58.9K [8] - The volume of RH's options trading stands at 1,130,387, with the stock price currently at $196.43, down by 3.0% [15] Company Overview - RH operates in the $136 billion domestic furniture and home furnishing industry, offering a wide range of products including furniture, lighting, and textiles [9] - The company is expanding its hospitality business with 23 restaurant locations and aims to broaden its market through international expansion and digital platforms [10] Market Analysis - Recent analyst ratings for RH show an average target price of $285.0, with varying opinions from different analysts, including a downward revision to $300 and a maintained target of $385 [12][13] - The stock is approaching oversold conditions according to RSI indicators, with an earnings announcement expected in 73 days [15]

Group 1: Shopify - Shopify has shown tremendous growth, with stock returns exceeding 400% since 2022, and continues to have significant expansion opportunities [4] - The majority of Shopify's revenue comes from merchant solutions, which grew 36% year over year in Q2 to over $2 billion [5] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance its offerings, such as launching Catalog to integrate millions of products into AI-powered shopping apps [6] - Shopify's strong brand and competitive advantage stem from its innovative solutions that help merchants increase sales, creating a powerful incentive to attract more businesses [7] - Total spending by Shopify merchants in the U.S. is projected to be only 12% of the e-commerce market by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential [8] Group 2: RH (Restoration Hardware) - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to revitalize the housing market, which has been stagnant due to high rates [10] - RH reported an 8.4% increase in revenue to $899.2 million in its recent Q2 earnings, benefiting from its focus on the higher-end market [12] - The company's business model has significant leverage, and margins could expand with increased demand, trading at a P/E of less than 20 based on fiscal 2027 estimates [13] Group 3: Carnival - Carnival has experienced a strong recovery, with record metrics in revenue, operating income, and customer deposits, indicating sustained demand [14][15] - Customer deposits reached $8.5 billion, with 93% of 2025 occupancy already booked, and 2026 demand aligning with historical highs [16] - Despite a staggering debt of over $27 billion, lower interest rates are facilitating debt repayment, with Carnival refinancing $7 billion at better rates [18][19]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a new wave of tariffs set to launch on October 1, targeting imports of heavy trucks, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, citing national security reasons [1] - A 25% tariff will be imposed on foreign-made heavy-duty trucks, impacting domestic manufacturers and higher-end importers like RH [1] - The stock market showed mixed reactions, with some domestic manufacturers experiencing gains while importers faced declines [1] Group 2 - The Dow and other indexes experienced a rise following inflation data that met estimates, indicating a potential recovery in the market [2] - Stocks related to furniture, such as Wayfair, received upgrades despite concerns over tariffs, with Wayfair's stock jumping after beating Q2 expectations [4] - The overall market sentiment was affected by inflation concerns and the looming tariff announcements, leading to volatility in stock prices [4]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, effective October 1, 2025, citing a "large scale FLOODING" of these products into the U.S. as a national security threat [2][6] - The U.S. imported $44.4 billion in furniture and fixtures in 2024, including $6.4 billion in upholstered household furniture and at least $8.2 billion in wood cabinets [3] - Furniture stocks reacted to the tariff announcement, with companies that have significant domestic manufacturing, like MasterBrand and MillerKnoll, seeing their shares rise, while high-end retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma experienced declines [1][9] Group 2 - MasterBrand's stock rose almost 6% following the tariff announcement, as the company operates 15 manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [5] - MillerKnoll's shares increased by 3%, with 75% of its square footage located in the U.S., and the company had already raised prices to offset tariff costs [8] - RH and Williams-Sonoma saw their shares drop by about 3% and less than 1%, respectively, as they both engage in some domestic upholstery work [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - RH's stock declined due to new tariff announcements and updated manufacturing and spending plans, impacting its operational outlook and financial performance [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. government announced a 30% duty on upholstered furniture starting next week, aimed at addressing the influx of imports into the domestic market [2]. - New tariffs include a 100% duty on branded or patented drug imports, a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, and a 50% tariff on kitchen and bathroom cabinets [1]. Group 2: Company Adjustments - RH expects approximately 52% of its upholstered furniture to be produced in the U.S. next year, with this share increasing through 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates an additional $30 million in tariff costs for the second half of the year, net of mitigation, and expects about $40 million in revenue to shift from Q3 to Q4 and Q1 of 2026 [3]. Group 3: Capital Expenditures - RH projects adjusted capital expenditures of $200 million to $250 million in 2026 and $150 million to $200 million in 2027 and beyond, aimed at enhancing supply-chain resilience and supporting long-term brand initiatives [4]. Group 4: Industry Reaction - The tariff announcements have faced pushback from U.S. businesses, with Ikea stating that the furniture levies complicate operating conditions [5]. - Competitors like Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Wayfair Inc. experienced stock declines following the tariff news [5].

Core Viewpoint - RH's stock declined due to new tariff announcements and updated manufacturing and spending plans, impacting the home furnishings sector [1][2]. Company Summary - RH anticipates producing approximately 52% of its upholstered furniture in the U.S. next year, with this percentage expected to increase through 2026 [3]. - The company has incorporated about $30 million in additional tariff costs for the second half of the year, net of mitigation, and expects around $40 million in revenue to shift from Q3 to Q4 and Q1 of 2026 [3]. - Projected adjusted capital expenditures are between $200 million to $250 million in 2026 and $150 million to $200 million in 2027 and beyond, aimed at enhancing supply-chain resilience and addressing policy-driven cost pressures [4]. Industry Summary - The new tariffs, including a 30% duty on upholstered furniture, have been met with resistance from U.S. businesses, complicating operating conditions for companies like Ikea [5]. - Competitors such as Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Wayfair Inc. experienced stock declines following the tariff announcements [5]. - A higher U.S. production mix may help RH mitigate import-related volatility, although near-term tariff costs and revenue timing shifts present execution risks [6].

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariffs - Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W) shares are responding positively to President Trump's tariff updates, with a 50% levy on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture [1] - RH (NYSE:RH) shares are experiencing a decline due to the same tariff announcements, indicating a negative market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Wayfair's stock is up 0.9% to $85.71, reversing previous losses and showing a 92.3% year-to-date gain, while testing support around the $80 level after a high of $91.77 on September 11 [2] - RH's stock is down 2.6% to $205.80, marking its third consecutive loss and a 47.4% deficit for 2025, with support at $200 potentially containing further losses [3] Group 3: Options Trading Activity - Options traders are leaning bearish on Wayfair, as indicated by a high Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio in the 86th percentile [2] - For RH, options activity shows a significant bearish sentiment with 5,973 puts traded, which is double the typical volume, indicating expectations of further downside [4]