Group 1 - The retail sector in the US stock market experienced an initial rise, with Amazon increasing by approximately 3.5% [1] - Other retailers such as eBay, Ross Stores, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target saw an increase of about 1% [1]

Core Insights - Ross Stores is considering raising prices to mitigate the impact of new U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The company reported lower-than-expected tariff-related costs for Q2 and anticipates moderation in tariff costs as the year progresses [2][3] - Executives indicated that price increases would be evaluated on an area-by-area basis, providing flexibility in response to tariff pressures [3] Industry Trends - More than half of middle-market firms believe tariffs will negatively affect their businesses, a significant increase from previous months [3] - 63% of goods firms plan to renegotiate pricing with suppliers, while 53% intend to shift from overseas to domestic providers [4] - A strategic shift is occurring across U.S. companies, with some considering price increases and layoffs as a response to ongoing tariff challenges [5]

Core Insights - The earnings season for retail stocks highlights the disparity in consumer spending between low/middle-income and high-income households due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - Companies like Walmart are experiencing a trade-down effect, where higher-income consumers are opting for value-oriented retailers [2][3] Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco has shown strong performance with a total return of over 220% in the last five years, indicating robust stock appreciation and dividend reinvestment [4] - The company's business model relies on an annual membership fee, which provides stable revenue, and it recently raised this fee for the first time in seven years while maintaining a retention rate above 90% [5] - Costco's commitment to expanding its global footprint is expected to drive future revenue and earnings growth, justifying its premium valuation at over 54 times forward earnings [6] Group 2: Ross Stores - Ross Stores caters to budget-conscious consumers seeking value, especially during economic uncertainty, and has a strong performance with a total return of over 72% in the last five years [7][9] - The company anticipates some earnings pressure due to tariffs, as approximately 50% of its inventory is sourced from China, but it maintains solid fundamentals with strong traffic and comparable store sales growth [8] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $159.40 for Ross Stores, indicating that the stock may be fairly priced despite tariff challenges [9] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Both Costco and Ross Stores can coexist in a diversified investment portfolio due to their distinct business models and target consumers [10] - Costco is viewed as a growth stock with defensive characteristics, benefiting from higher-income households' spending [10][11] - Ross Stores represents a cyclical play in retail, appealing to value-oriented shoppers, which is expected to sustain strong traffic and comparable sales [12]

Core Insights - Ross Stores, Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.56, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52, but a 1.9% decline from $1.59 in the same quarter of fiscal 2024 due to tariff-related costs [2][7] - Total sales reached $5,529 million, a 5% increase year over year, but slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,533 million, with comparable store sales improving by 2% [3][7] Financial Performance - The cost of goods sold (COGS) was $4 billion, up 5.5% year over year, representing 72.4% of sales, an increase of 70 basis points from the previous year [8] - Operating income declined 3.2% year over year to $638.3 million, with an operating margin of 11.5%, down 95 basis points due to tariff-related costs [10] - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $3.8 billion and long-term debt of $1.02 billion [11] Store Expansion and Future Outlook - In the second quarter, Ross Stores opened 28 new Ross and 3 dd's DISCOUNTS stores, bringing the total to 2,233 stores [13] - For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the company expects to open 40 new stores and anticipates comparable store sales growth of 2-3% [14][16] - Management projects EPS for the third quarter to be between $1.31 and $1.37, reflecting a negative impact of 7-8 cents per share from tariffs [16][18]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures by 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.22% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.08%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.05%, France's CAC40 up 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.30% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.31% to $63.72 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.19% to $67.80 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Market is focused on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for future Fed monetary policy [5] - According to CME FedWatch, traders are betting on a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with at least one more cut expected this year [5] - Analysts warn that if Powell does not confirm or suggest a rate cut, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [5] Company Performance - Goldman Sachs predicts Powell will not explicitly signal a rate cut in his speech, while Yardeni Research estimates the probability of a September cut at only 40% [6] - HSBC suggests that despite tariffs impacting US corporate profit margins, the rapid adoption of AI could help reduce operational costs by 1%, potentially offsetting 25% of the cost increase from tariffs [6] - UBS indicates that the effective tariff rate in the US has exceeded 18%, with expectations of a stabilization around 15% by mid-2026, suggesting that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers [6] Individual Company News - Gold Fields (GFI.US) reported a net profit of $1.02 billion for the first half of the year, doubling from $389 million year-over-year, and announced an interim dividend of 7 Rand ($0.3948) per share [8] - Zoom (ZM.US) achieved its strongest growth in 11 quarters, with enterprise sales up 7% to $730.7 million, exceeding analyst expectations [9] - Ross Stores (ROST.US) reported sales of $5.53 billion for the quarter, a 2% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $1.56, surpassing market expectations [9] - Chinese stocks are mostly up in pre-market trading, with notable gains for Miniso (MNSO.US) up over 8%, NIO (NIO.US) up over 5%, and Pinduoduo (PDD.US) up over 4% [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the valuation of Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), indicating that the stock was trading around $150 per share nearly a year ago, with a valuation model suggesting a fair price [1]. Company Analysis - Ross Stores, Inc. is highlighted as a focus of investment analysis, with the author having previously reviewed the company and its stock performance [1]. - The author possesses a strong educational background in Analytics and Accounting, which supports the analysis provided [1]. Investment Perspective - The author expresses a personal interest in dividend investing, indicating a long-term commitment to the stock [1]. - There is a beneficial long position in the shares of ROST, suggesting confidence in the company's future performance [2].

Core Viewpoint - Ross Stores (ROST.US) reported a strong second-quarter performance with a 5% year-over-year sales increase, although slightly below analyst expectations [1] Financial Performance - Sales reached $5.53 billion, compared to analyst expectations of $5.54 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.56, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.53, with approximately $0.11 impact from tariff-related costs [1] - Same-store sales grew by 2% year-over-year [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts third-quarter EPS between $1.31 and $1.37, while fourth-quarter EPS is expected to be between $1.74 and $1.81, compared to analyst expectations of $1.48 and $1.70 respectively [1] - CEO Jim Conroy expressed cautious optimism regarding early sales trends related to the back-to-school season, but noted macroeconomic uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - Due to tariff policies leading to increased retail prices during the holiday season, consumer demand for discounted clothing and accessories has risen, resulting in stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and a robust annual forecast from Ross Stores (ROST.US), which significantly boosted its stock price in after-hours trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - Ross Stores reported a 2% increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, with sales for the three months ending August 2 reaching $5.53 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the market expectation of $5.57 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.56, exceeding market expectations by $0.02 [1]. - The company has revised its full-year EPS forecast to a range of $6.08 to $6.21, which includes an estimated tariff impact of $0.22 to $0.25 per share, while the market expectation stands at $6.10 [1]. Future Outlook - Ross Stores anticipates same-store sales growth of 2% to 3% over the next two quarters, with the upper end of this range representing the largest increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - The company projects third-quarter EPS between $1.31 and $1.37, below the market expectation of $1.47, but expects fourth-quarter EPS to be between $1.74 and $1.81, surpassing the market forecast of $1.69 [1][2]. Market Context - The tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased prices for imported goods, benefiting discount retailers as consumers become more budget-conscious amid rising inflation [2]. - Other retailers, such as TJX Companies (TJX.US) and Home Depot (HD.US), have also reported positive performance, indicating a broader trend of consumers seeking value [2]. Stock Performance - As of Thursday's close, Ross Stores' stock has declined by 4.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which has risen by 8.3% during the same period [3].

Market Overview - Major indexes closed mostly in the red, with the Dow down 157 points, S&P 500 down 24 points, and Nasdaq down 90 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4 points [1] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, significantly above the anticipated 49.5 and July's 49.8, marking a more than 3-year high [2] - August Services PMI was reported at 55.4, the second consecutive month above 55 this year [2] Company Earnings Reports - **Zoom Communications (ZM)**: Shares rose 6% after Q2 earnings beat expectations by 10% at $1.53 per share, with revenues of $1.217 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year growth, and non-GAAP operating margins at 41.3% [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Shares fell 5% despite beating fiscal Q4 earnings expectations by 10 cents at $2.75 per share, with revenues of $3.8 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, attributed to lackluster guidance for the current quarter [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Shares increased by 2.3% after Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share exceeded consensus by 4 cents, with revenues of $5.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year growth, and expected comps of 2-3% going forward [5] Upcoming Events - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, is anticipated to provide insights on interest rate decisions for the September meeting [6] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is due out a week from Friday, with the last report showing year-over-year PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.8% [7]

Company Performance - Ross Stores reported quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 per share, but down from $1.59 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +2.63% [1] - The company posted revenues of $5.53 billion for the quarter ended July 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.08%, but up from $5.29 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ross Stores has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times, but has only topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Market Performance - Ross Stores shares have declined approximately 3.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Ross Stores is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.46 on revenues of $5.33 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.22 on revenues of $21.98 billion [7] - The outlook for the Retail - Discount Stores industry is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact the performance of Ross Stores [8] Industry Comparison - Dollar Tree, a competitor in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -44.8%, with revenues anticipated to be $4.46 billion, down 39.6% from the previous year [9][10]