Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reiterated a "Buy" rating for Sunrun (RUN.US) with a target price of $19 [1] - Sunrun completed a $510 million securitization of residential solar lease and power purchase agreements on September 12 [1] - This marks the company's fifth bond issuance for 2025 and the third in the third quarter, raising over $1.5 billion through senior and subordinated non-recourse debt financing [1] Group 2 - Sunrun's stock price has increased by over 150% in the past six months [1] - As of September 19, Sunrun's stock closed at $16.58, up 1.72% [2] - The company is recognized as one of the best-performing clean energy stocks in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun Inc. is highlighted as a promising investment opportunity in the clean energy sector, with a significant price target set by Goldman Sachs and a notable increase in share price over the past six months [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs has reiterated a 'Buy' rating on Sunrun Inc. with a price target of $19 as of September 16, 2025 [2]. - The company completed a $510 million securitization of residential solar leases and power purchase agreements on September 12, 2025, marking its fifth issuance in 2025 and third in the third quarter [2][3]. - Through senior and subordinated non-recourse debt financings, Sunrun has raised over $1.5 billion [3]. - The share price of Sunrun has increased by over 150% in the past six months [3]. Group 2: Industry Position - Sunrun Inc. is recognized as one of the best clean energy stocks, focusing on the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems across the U.S. [3].

Core Insights - The solar energy sector has faced challenges under the Trump administration, including tariffs on imported solar panels and a general inclination towards fossil fuels, creating uncertainty for solar companies [1][11] - However, recent guidance from the U.S. Treasury Department has proven to be less restrictive than initially feared, leading to a rally in solar stocks [2][8] Company Performance - First Solar Inc. (FSLR) reported Q2 EPS of $3.18, a 2.2% decline year over year, but sales increased by 8.6% to $1.10 billion, exceeding expectations [3] - Sunrun (RUN) achieved quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share, significantly up from $0.55 in the prior year, with revenues of $569.34 million, surpassing estimates [4] - SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) posted a Q2 adjusted loss of 81 cents per share, an improvement from last year's loss, with revenues rising 9.1% to $289.4 million [5] - Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.69, a 60.5% increase year over year, with revenues up 19.7% to $363.2 million [6] Industry Overview - The solar industry ranks in the top 24% of Zacks-classified industries, with a current Zacks Rank of 58 out of 245, and has seen a stock performance increase of 13.5% year to date [7] - The industry added nearly 18 GW of new capacity in H1 2025, with solar and storage accounting for 82% of all new power capacity connected to the grid [10] - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 16.64X, lower than the S&P 500's P/E of 19.85X, with a projected EPS growth of 11.43% compared to 6.92% for the S&P 500 [9] Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as the potential end of key tax credits and increased costs due to tariffs, the demand for alternative energy sources, particularly solar, is expected to persist [11][13] - Solar-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) have shown positive performance recently, with TAN gaining 1.9% and ICLN jumping 3.4% [13]

Industry Overview - The U.S. solar industry experienced a 24% year-over-year decline in installations during Q2 2025, with all segments except commercial solar shrinking due to unfavorable federal policies and trade challenges [1][3] - Solar photovoltaic (PV) accounted for 56% of the new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in the first half of 2025, maintaining its status as the dominant form of new generating capacity [2] Trends Impacting the Industry - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that total U.S. electricity generation will grow by 2.3% in 2025, with solar power contributing the largest share of this increase [3] - Federal policies, particularly the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), have cut federal tax credits and introduced new requirements that may adversely affect solar manufacturing capacity and investment [4] - Tariffs imposed in 2025 have increased component and operational costs, with module costs rising by 13% year over year due to the AD/CVD case on solar cells and modules [5][6] Financial Performance - The solar industry has underperformed compared to the Oils-Energy sector and the S&P 500, with a collective loss of 22.5% over the past year, while the Oils-Energy sector rose by 4.5% and the S&P 500 surged by 18.8% [9] - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 5.52X, compared to the S&P 500's 18.22X and the sector's 5.07X [12] Notable Companies - **Sunrun Inc.**: Announced the pricing of a securitization of leases and power purchase agreements, raising over $1.5 billion in financing in Q3 2025, supporting profitable growth [15][16] - **Shoals Technologies Group**: Announced the groundbreaking of the Maryvale Solar and Energy Storage Project in Australia, which will deliver 243 MW of solar capacity and 172 MW of battery storage, enhancing its international presence [20][21] - **Tigo Energy Inc.**: Completed compliance testing for its Tigo EI Residential solution in Slovakia, enhancing its market position and expected to improve sales by 91.9% in 2025 [25][26]

Core Insights - Sunrun has successfully priced a securitization of leases and power purchase agreements, marking its fifteenth securitization since 2015 and fifth issuance in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Securitization Details - The recent securitization includes two classes of A- rated notes (Class A-1 and Class A-2) totaling $510 million, with Class A-1 Notes priced at $260 million and Class A-2 Notes at $250 million [2][3] - Class A Notes have a coupon rate of 6.15%, a spread of 240 basis points, and a yield of 6.21% [2] - The initial balance of Class A Notes represents a 69% advance rate on the Securitization Share of ADSAB, with an expected weighted average life of 6.93 years and a final maturity date of January 30, 2061 [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - In Q3 2025, Sunrun is expected to raise over $1.5 billion in senior and subordinated non-recourse debt financings, demonstrating strong capital market access [2] - The transaction is backed by a diversified portfolio of 29,929 systems across 19 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, with a weighted average customer FICO of 743 [3] Group 3: Previous Transactions - Prior to the recent securitization, Sunrun completed a privately placed transaction in August 2025, which included an A- rated loan of $441 million and a retained BB rated loan [4] - In July 2025, Sunrun priced a public securitization of $431 million with a spread of 240 basis points and a yield of 6.374% [4]

Group 1 - KBRA assigns preliminary ratings to three classes of notes issued by Sunrun Lucius Issuer 2025-3, LLC, which are collateralized by a diversified pool of 29,929 leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs) related to residential solar photovoltaic installations [1][2] - The total Aggregate Discounted Solar Asset Balance (ADSAB) is approximately $694.3 million, calculated using a discount rate of 7.5% [1] - The largest geographic concentrations of the portfolio are California, Massachusetts, and Puerto Rico, representing about 50.9% of the number of PV Systems and approximately 61.3% of the ADSAB [2] Group 2 - The portfolio consists of approximately 73.1% PPA agreements and 26.9% lease agreements by ADSAB, with weighted average original and remaining tenors of 297 months and 285 months, respectively [2] - The weighted average FICO score of the underlying customers of the PV Systems is 743, indicating a relatively high credit quality among the customer base [2]

Industry Overview - The solar sector is experiencing significant declines following President Trump's announcement that the U.S. will not approve new wind or solar projects, attributing high electricity and energy costs to renewables [1] Company Performance - First Solar Inc (FSLR) is down 6.6% at $192.78, but remains up 9.5% year-to-date [2] - Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) is one of the worst performers on the Nasdaq, down 18.4% at $10.40, with disappointing second-quarter earnings and a reduced full-year outlook contributing to its decline [4] - Sunrun Inc (RUN) is down 5.3% at $14.64, marking its third consecutive drop, although it has a year-to-date performance lead of 57.9% over its peers [6] Options Market Activity - FSLR is experiencing quadruple the average intraday put volume, with significant activity at the weekly 8/22 202.50-strike put [8] - CSIQ is seeing eight times the typical put volume, with new positions being opened at the weekly 8/22 11-strike call [8]

Core Viewpoint - Solar stocks experienced a significant rally on August 18, 2025, following the U.S. Treasury Department's release of guidance on clean energy tax credits, which were less restrictive than initially feared [1] Market Reaction - First Solar (FSLR) saw a jump of over 9%, becoming the second-best performer in the S&P 500 on that day, while Sunrun (RUN) gained nearly 11.4%. Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) each increased by approximately 3% [2] - Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including Proshares S&P Kensho Cleantech ETF (CTEX), Fidelity Clean Energy ETF (FRNW), SPDR Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG), Global Clean Energy iShares ETF (ICLN), and Global X Cleantech ETF (CTEC), reached a 52-week high on August 18, 2025 [2] Tax Credit Phase-Out Timeline - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" signed by President Donald Trump phased out tax credits for new wind and solar projects unless construction begins by July 4, 2026. The IRS's new guidance clarifies that smaller projects, like rooftop solar installations, can still benefit from a 5% "safe harbor" rule, allowing developers to qualify for tax credits if they invest at least 5% of the project's total cost and complete construction within four years [3] - For larger, utility-scale projects, the new guidance requires that "physical work of a significant nature" must have begun to qualify for the credits, eliminating reliance on the previous safe harbor rule [4] Analyst Takeaways - Jefferies analysts described the update as a "clear win" for residential solar, alleviating fears of stricter rules and retroactive changes [5] - Citi analysts noted that the guidance was "better than anticipated," as it was not retroactive and the investment threshold did not increase above 10%, providing relief to investors [5]

Market Overview - Investor risk sentiment paused as markets awaited details from President Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders [1] - Major U.S. indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones, remained little changed, holding near record highs [2] Performance of Major Indices - Russell 2000 increased by 0.4% to 2,295.13 - Dow Jones remained unchanged at 44,967.07 - S&P 500 held steady at 6,450.31 - Nasdaq 100 also unchanged at 23,709.13 [4] Sector and Stock Movements - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) flattened at $591.03 - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) held steady at $449.33 - Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ) eased 0.1% to $576.08 - iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged up 0.3% to $227.78 [7] Notable Stock Performances - First Solar Inc. (FSLR) rose 10.15%, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) advanced 10.63%, and Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) added 5.24% following new guidance on clean energy tax credits [7] - UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) increased by 3.15% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.6 billion stake [7] - Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) gained 11% after an upgrade to Overweight by KeyBanc and a Buy rating from Citi Research [7] - Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) rose 5.03% after FDA approval of its weight-loss drug Wegovy for liver disease [7] - GoodRx Holdings Inc. (GDRX) jumped 40% on news of a partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell Wegovy and Ozempic for $499 a month [7] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Movements - Gold slipped 0.1% to $3,333 per ounce - Oil prices fell 0.8% to $62 a barrel - Bitcoin (BTC/USD) dropped 1.2% to $116,000, with Ethereum (ETH/USD) down 3.3% to $4,327 and Solana (SOL/USD) off 4.3% [3]

RBC Capital's Christopher Dendrinos upgraded Sunrun RUN to Outperform with a $16 price target. There is clearer long-term growth visibility after the recent U.S. Treasury guidance eased regulatory uncertainty, he explained.Dendrinos noted that the updated framework strengthens demand, supports cash generation. It also positions Sunrun to gain market share as policy shifts favor its third-party ownership (TPO) model.Treasury clarification on "commence construction" rules removes much of the prior uncertainty ...