Sweetgreen is rolling out wraps in select markets as same-store sales are expected to fall and shares remain far below their IPO highs. ...

Key Takeaways PZZA, SG and SHAK to report Q4 amid soft consumer sentiment and traffic pressures.Digital ordering, loyalty programs and menu innovation likely supported Q4 sales trends.Sector earnings are seen up 2.9% year over year, slower than the 16.6% rise in Q3.The restaurant industry enters the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season amid an increasingly value-conscious consumer environment. As the year progressed, operators placed greater emphasis on affordability, bundled offerings and targeted promotion ...

Company Overview - Sweetgreen, Inc. (NYSE:SG) is an American fast-casual restaurant chain founded in November 2006 and headquartered in Los Angeles, California, primarily offering salad bowls [3] - The company has achieved an average revenue growth of 25.8% over the past three years, ranking 10th among high-growth food stocks to buy [3] Recent Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Sweetgreen reported sales of $172.4 million [2] - The company opened eight new restaurants during the quarter, including six Infinite Kitchen locations, marking its entry into the Arizona market for the first time [2] - Looking ahead, Sweetgreen plans to open 17 additional restaurants in the fourth quarter, expanding into new markets such as Sacramento, Cincinnati, and Northwest Arkansas [2] Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs analyst Christine Cho raised the price target on Sweetgreen to $5.60 from $5 while maintaining a Sell rating on the shares [1] - The analyst noted that restaurant stocks, including Sweetgreen, have outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date due to expectations for potential tariff relief, stimulus measures, and tax cuts that could support household consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sweetgreen's stock is experiencing a decline due to a broader sell-off in growth stocks and a reaffirmed sell rating from Goldman Sachs, despite positive news from Starbucks [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Sweetgreen's shares fell 15.1% for the week as of 2:05 p.m. ET, reflecting ongoing struggles in the fast-casual sector [1]. - The stock has been volatile, influenced by market sentiment since its significant drop following the third-quarter earnings report in November [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs reiterated a sell rating on Sweetgreen but raised its price target from $5 to $5.60, indicating cautious optimism amid broader restaurant stock performance [3]. - Analyst Christine Cho noted that while restaurant stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, many in the industry continue to face challenges [3]. Group 3: Market Context - Starbucks reported a 4% growth in comparable sales in the U.S., suggesting potential positive trends in consumer discretionary spending, although this may be attributed to internal changes under CEO Brian Niccol [4]. - The decline in tech and growth stocks at the end of the week further contributed to Sweetgreen's stock woes [4]. Group 4: Company Outlook - Sweetgreen has potential as a leading fast-casual salad chain but has faced significant challenges, including declining same-store sales and the sale of its automation platform [6]. - The company may benefit from easier comparisons in 2026, but it remains a "show-me" story following the recent departures of key executives [7].

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) and Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) represent contrasting approaches within the fast-casual dining sector, with CMG focusing on stability and cash generation, while SG emphasizes growth through technology and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - Chipotle's growth strategy is centered on disciplined unit expansion, aiming for 7,000 restaurants, supported by strong new-unit productivity and minimal cannibalization [3]. - The company is enhancing operational execution through high-efficiency kitchen equipment, leading to improved labor efficiency and guest satisfaction [4]. - Menu innovation and digital engagement are key drivers, with limited-time offerings and loyalty initiatives boosting customer engagement without heavy discounting [5]. - Despite strengths, Chipotle faces near-term challenges from macro-driven traffic softness, particularly among lower and middle-income consumers [6]. Group 2: Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) - Sweetgreen is undergoing a transformation with a focus on operational excellence and brand relevance, as outlined in its Sweet Growth Transformation Plan [7]. - The company is committed to menu quality and differentiation, with new protein-forward offerings and a reassessment of menu pricing to enhance customer value [8][10]. - Financial flexibility has improved following the sale of the Spyce automation unit, expected to add approximately $100 million in liquidity and reduce annual G&A expenses [11]. - However, Sweetgreen's near-term fundamentals are under pressure, with significant same-store sales declines and margin erosion due to higher costs and weaker demand [12]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle indicates a 9.8% increase in sales and a 4.2% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 [13]. - In contrast, Sweetgreen's estimates imply a 9.4% increase in sales but a wider loss in EPS for 2026 [15]. - Chipotle's shares have decreased by 10.7% over the past three months, while Sweetgreen's stock has dropped 50.9%, against an industry decline of 0.9% [17]. - Chipotle trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.97, above the industry average of 3.66, while Sweetgreen's P/S multiple is 1.02 [18]. Group 4: Conclusion - The comparison favors Chipotle, which is navigating a cautious consumer environment from a position of strength, with proven unit economics and operational improvements [21]. - Sweetgreen is still in a multi-year turnaround phase, facing execution challenges and traffic pressures that make its recovery less predictable [22].

Company Performance - Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) closed at $6.66, reflecting a -6.98% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.5% gain [1] - The stock has increased by 2.73% over the past month, which is below the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.24% but above the S&P 500's gain of 0.18% [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Sweetgreen, Inc. to report earnings of -$0.32 per share, representing a year-over-year decline of 28% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $159.29 million, indicating a 1% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of -$0.87 per share and revenue of $683.56 million, reflecting shifts of -10.13% and 0% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Sweetgreen, Inc. should be monitored as they may indicate changes in short-term business dynamics [3] Zacks Rank and Industry Position - Sweetgreen, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 3.6% over the past month [5] - The Retail - Restaurants industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 202, placing it in the bottom 18% of over 250 industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sweetgreen's stock has significantly declined, raising questions about whether it presents a buying opportunity or should be avoided by investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Sweetgreen focuses on healthy food in the fast-casual restaurant sector, emphasizing health and sustainability while incorporating automation to reduce costs [1][2]. - The company has plans to open 37 new restaurants by 2025, increasing its total to 266 by the end of Q3 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2025 grew by 2% to $524 million, but same-store sales dropped by 7% during the same period [3]. - Operating expenses have increased, leading to a net loss of $84 million in the first three quarters of 2025, up from $61 million in the same period the previous year [4]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to financial struggles, Sweetgreen has reduced its new restaurant growth plans to 20 locations in 2026 [5]. - The company holds $130 million in cash and expects to gain an additional $100 million from selling its automation unit, Spyce, which may provide time for a turnaround [5]. Market Position - Sweetgreen's stock has experienced a nearly 80% decline over the past year, resulting in a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.2, significantly lower than competitors like Chipotle (4.5) and Cava (7.2) [5][7]. - The low P/S ratio may attract risk-tolerant investors, but the lack of profitability raises concerns about the stock's potential for recovery [9].

Core Insights - Sweetgreen has experienced significant stock volatility since its IPO in November 2021, with shares dropping 74% in the first year, then rising 236% until late November 2024, and currently trading 85% below its all-time high as of January 16 [1] Company Overview - Sweetgreen has successfully carved out a niche in the competitive fast-casual restaurant sector by focusing on healthy salads and bowls [3] - The company is expanding rapidly, having opened 25 net new stores in fiscal 2024, with plans for 37 net new locations in fiscal 2025 and 15 to 20 in fiscal 2026, indicating potential for higher revenue in the future [4] Technological Innovation - Sweetgreen is leveraging technology to enhance operations, particularly through its Infinite Kitchen robotic machine, which automates order preparation, aiming to improve throughput and operational efficiencies [5] Market Conditions - The broader macroeconomic environment presents challenges, with U.S. GDP growing by 4.3% in Q3, yet consumer spending is tightening, negatively impacting restaurants like Sweetgreen [6] - In Q3, Sweetgreen reported an 11.7% decline in foot traffic, leading to a 9.5% drop in same-store sales (SSS), with management forecasting a further SSS decline of 7.7% to 8.5% for fiscal 2025 [7] Competitive Position - Sweetgreen operates with a relatively small footprint of 266 stores, which limits brand recognition and cost advantages, contributing to ongoing net losses [8]

Core Insights - Both Sweetgreen and Beyond Meat saw their shares decline nearly 80% in 2025, reflecting challenges in the healthy eating sector amid rising inflation and consumer budget constraints [2][3] Company Performance - Sweetgreen and Beyond Meat have both faced declining growth rates, contributing to their poor stock performance [3] - Sweetgreen has a gross margin of 6.51%, while Beyond Meat has a gross margin of 5.98%, indicating that Sweetgreen has a slight edge in profitability metrics [5][17] - Sweetgreen has been generating positive cash flow over the trailing 12 months, while Beyond Meat's cash and cash equivalents were only $117 million as of September, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [15][17] Market Position - Sweetgreen is recognized for its premium offerings, such as $20 salads, while Beyond Meat faces intense competition and scrutiny over the healthiness of its processed products [5] - Despite both companies incurring losses, Sweetgreen has not reported negative gross margins recently, which is a significant concern for investors [11] Investment Outlook - Sweetgreen is viewed as a safer investment option due to its stronger fundamentals and positive operating cash flow, making it a more attractive turnaround play compared to Beyond Meat [17][18] - Both companies are expected to struggle in the near term, but Sweetgreen may have a better chance of recovery [18]

Group 1 - Chris Tarrant is leaving his role as Sweetgreen's chief development officer, confirmed by the company, and will support a smooth transition until the end of January [1][2] - Tarrant joined Sweetgreen in September 2024 and previously held the same position at Nothing Bundt Cakes and worked at Starbucks for over six years [2] - His departure follows the retirement announcement of cofounder and chief brand officer Nathaniel Ru after 20 years [3] Group 2 - Sweetgreen reported a challenging 2025, with a -9.6% decline in same-store sales and -11.7% drop in traffic in the third quarter, marking its third consecutive negative quarter [4] - The company revised its same-store sales outlook for the full year from a range of -4% to -6% to a new range of -7% to -8.5% [4] - Sweetgreen is now targeting the opening of 15 to 20 new locations, down from the previously projected 37 new locations [4]