DENVER, Dec. 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) (“Simply Good Foods” or the “Company”), a leader in the Nutritional Snacking category, today announced it will report financial results for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 on Thursday, January 8, 2026. A press release will be issued that morning, followed by a live conference call beginning at 6:30 a.m. Mountain Time (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time). Participating on the call will be Geoff Tanner, President and Chief Execut ...

We came across a bullish thesis on The Simply Good Foods Company on Value investing subreddit by RainMakerJMR. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SMPL. The Simply Good Foods Company's share was trading at $18.99 as of December 2nd. SMPL’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.00 and 10.47 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and ...

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Core Insights - Madison Small Cap Fund experienced a challenging third quarter in 2025, with the fund down 1.3%, significantly underperforming benchmarks due to stock selection and a speculative market environment [1] Fund Performance - The Madison Small Cap Fund's performance was broadly affected by the small-cap index, indicating a widespread downturn in the sector [1] - The fund's underperformance was attributed to poor stock selection and a market characterized by high speculation [1] Highlighted Stocks - The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) was mentioned as a notable stock in the fund's investor letter, with a one-month return of 0.74% and a significant decline of 48.45% over the past 52 weeks [2] - As of November 20, 2025, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) had a market capitalization of $2.022 billion, with shares closing at $20.11 [2] Market Context - The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) faced downward pressure due to a broad-based sell-off in Consumer Staples stocks, as investors favored more speculative investments, particularly those related to AI [3] - The company was not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 32 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 28 in the previous quarter [4] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, The Simply Good Foods Company reported a net loss of $12.4 million, a decline from a net income of $29.3 million in the same quarter of fiscal 2024 [4] - Despite acknowledging the potential of The Simply Good Foods Company as an investment, the fund expressed that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - McCollum Christoferson Group has completely exited its position in Simply Good Foods, selling 125,985 shares for approximately $3.98 million, marking a significant reduction in their investment [1][2][3] Company Overview - Simply Good Foods Company specializes in developing, marketing, and selling snacks and meal replacements, primarily under the Atkins and Quest brands, focusing on high-protein and low-sugar products [5][7] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.09 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $1.45 billion and a net income of $103.61 million [4] Financial Performance - As of November 20, 2025, Simply Good Foods shares were priced at $20.11, reflecting a 47% decline over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 57 percentage points [3][4] - The company's sales growth has slowed from an annual rate of 12% over the last five years to 9% this year, with a recent quarter showing a dip in sales [9] Investment Insights - The liquidation of Simply Good Foods' stake by McCollum Christoferson was the largest sale of the quarter, indicating a strategic exit as the stock price fell from around $32 to $20 [8] - Despite the current low valuation, concerns remain regarding the company's future growth prospects, particularly following acquisitions that have yet to yield significant returns [10]

Core Insights - Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is well-positioned in the high-protein, low-sugar snack market, primarily through its Atkins and Quest brands, despite facing near-term challenges such as brand-specific slowdowns and inflationary pressures [2][3] - The company has demonstrated strong cash generation and disciplined expansion, suggesting that the market may be overly pessimistic about its valuation, presenting potential upside for patient investors [2][7] Financial Performance - The Quest brand saw a 13.4% increase in Q4 FY25 net sales, particularly in savory snacks, while the Atkins brand experienced a 12.9% decline, leading to a $60.9 million impairment charge [3] - Q4 FY25 net sales fell by 1.8% year-over-year, resulting in a net loss of $12.4 million, with anticipated fiscal 2026 net sales growth projected between -2% and +2% [3] - Simply Good Foods plans to invest $30-$40 million to enhance its salty snack production capacity, aiming to strengthen future growth avenues despite immediate margin pressures from inflation [3] Cash Flow and Valuation - The company boasts an impressive cash flow yield of 7.9%, with a revenue growth of 9.0% over the past 12 months, indicating an increase in cash reserves [7] - SMPL stock is currently trading 35% lower than its 3-month high, 51% below its 1-year high, and 54% below its 2-year high, suggesting a valuation discount [7]

Group 1 - The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is experiencing significant activity in the options market, particularly with the Nov 21, 2025 $40.00 Call showing high implied volatility, indicating expectations of a major price movement [1] - Implied volatility reflects market expectations for future stock movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant event that could lead to a substantial price change [2] - Analysts have a negative outlook on Simply Good Foods, with the company currently holding a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) in the Food - Confectionery Industry, which is in the bottom 6% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] Group 2 - Over the past 60 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while three have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 45 cents per share to 36 cents [3] - The high implied volatility may present a trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility, hoping that the underlying stock does not move as much as anticipated by expiration [4]

Core Insights - Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) is currently perceived as a potential bargain due to short-term weaknesses in its stock performance [1] - The company's stock price experienced a significant decline on October 23 following the release of weak overall guidance for 2026 [1] - Despite the stock price drop, it is important to evaluate the brand-level performance of Simply Good Foods [1] Company Performance - The stock price of Simply Good Foods fell sharply, indicating market concerns regarding its future performance [1] - The guidance provided for 2026 was weaker than expected, contributing to the stock's decline [1] - Analyzing brand-level performance may reveal underlying strengths that could present investment opportunities [1]

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in net sales, achieving $500 million, representing a 15% year-over-year growth[7]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 10% for the next fiscal year, projecting sales to reach $550 million[7]. - The gross margin improved to 40%, up from 35% in the previous year, due to cost management initiatives[7]. User Growth and Market Expansion - User data indicates a 20% increase in active users, reaching 2 million, driven by new product launches and marketing strategies[7]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Europe, targeting a 25% increase in market share within the next two years[7]. Product Development - New product development includes the launch of three innovative snack lines, expected to contribute an additional $50 million in sales[7]. Strategic Investments and Acquisitions - A recent acquisition of a competitor is expected to generate $30 million in annual synergies[7]. - The company intends to grow through mergers, acquisitions, or joint ventures, including the OWYN Acquisition, but may not successfully integrate or realize anticipated benefits[21]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company plans to invest $10 million in enhancing its supply chain efficiency to mitigate inflationary pressures[7]. - The company is dependent on a global supply chain, which is affected by supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures, and tariffs[21]. - Ingredient and packaging costs are volatile and may rise significantly, impacting overall costs[21]. Risks and Challenges - The company has identified potential risks related to supply chain disruptions and changing consumer preferences, which could impact future performance[21]. - The company faces risks related to changing consumer preferences, which may negatively impact brand loyalty and net sales[21]. - The company relies on a limited number of retailers for a substantial portion of net sales, maintaining "at will" contracts without minimum purchase requirements[21]. - The company may incur significant costs due to operating as a public company, affecting financial performance[21]. - Changes in interest rates may adversely affect the company’s earnings and cash flows, impacting financial stability[22]. Dividend Policy - The company does not expect to declare any dividends in the foreseeable future, focusing instead on reinvestment for growth[22]. - The company’s only significant asset is ownership of 100% of Atkins Intermediate Holdings, LLC, which could limit its ability to pay dividends or meet financial obligations[21]. - The company’s common stock price may be affected by future sales of common stock or other dilution, posing risks to investors[22].

Core Viewpoint - Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) has experienced a 48% decline year-to-date, primarily due to the Atkins brand losing distribution, which has led to a 15% decrease in sales and ongoing challenges expected in FY26 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The Atkins brand's sales are 75% healthy and growing despite the overall decline [1] - The company is viewed as having strong fundamentals that are currently undervalued due to short-term challenges [1] Group 2: Investment Perspective - The market is perceived to be overly focused on short-term issues, creating mispricing opportunities for long-term investors [1] - The strategy involves identifying these short-term mispricings to unlock long-term value [1]