Core Insights - McCollum Christoferson Group has completely exited its position in Simply Good Foods, selling 125,985 shares for approximately $3.98 million, marking a significant reduction in their investment [1][2][3] Company Overview - Simply Good Foods Company specializes in developing, marketing, and selling snacks and meal replacements, primarily under the Atkins and Quest brands, focusing on high-protein and low-sugar products [5][7] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.09 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $1.45 billion and a net income of $103.61 million [4] Financial Performance - As of November 20, 2025, Simply Good Foods shares were priced at $20.11, reflecting a 47% decline over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 57 percentage points [3][4] - The company's sales growth has slowed from an annual rate of 12% over the last five years to 9% this year, with a recent quarter showing a dip in sales [9] Investment Insights - The liquidation of Simply Good Foods' stake by McCollum Christoferson was the largest sale of the quarter, indicating a strategic exit as the stock price fell from around $32 to $20 [8] - Despite the current low valuation, concerns remain regarding the company's future growth prospects, particularly following acquisitions that have yet to yield significant returns [10]

Core Insights - Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is well-positioned in the high-protein, low-sugar snack market, primarily through its Atkins and Quest brands, despite facing near-term challenges such as brand-specific slowdowns and inflationary pressures [2][3] - The company has demonstrated strong cash generation and disciplined expansion, suggesting that the market may be overly pessimistic about its valuation, presenting potential upside for patient investors [2][7] Financial Performance - The Quest brand saw a 13.4% increase in Q4 FY25 net sales, particularly in savory snacks, while the Atkins brand experienced a 12.9% decline, leading to a $60.9 million impairment charge [3] - Q4 FY25 net sales fell by 1.8% year-over-year, resulting in a net loss of $12.4 million, with anticipated fiscal 2026 net sales growth projected between -2% and +2% [3] - Simply Good Foods plans to invest $30-$40 million to enhance its salty snack production capacity, aiming to strengthen future growth avenues despite immediate margin pressures from inflation [3] Cash Flow and Valuation - The company boasts an impressive cash flow yield of 7.9%, with a revenue growth of 9.0% over the past 12 months, indicating an increase in cash reserves [7] - SMPL stock is currently trading 35% lower than its 3-month high, 51% below its 1-year high, and 54% below its 2-year high, suggesting a valuation discount [7]

Core Viewpoint - Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) has experienced a 48% decline year-to-date, primarily due to the Atkins brand losing distribution, which has led to a 15% decrease in sales and ongoing challenges expected in FY26 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The Atkins brand's sales are 75% healthy and growing despite the overall decline [1] - The company is viewed as having strong fundamentals that are currently undervalued due to short-term challenges [1] Group 2: Investment Perspective - The market is perceived to be overly focused on short-term issues, creating mispricing opportunities for long-term investors [1] - The strategy involves identifying these short-term mispricings to unlock long-term value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in Simply Good Foods' shares is primarily attributed to a below-consensus outlook for the upcoming year rather than ongoing challenges with the Atkins brand [1] Company Strategy - Simply Good Foods is in the process of revitalizing the Atkins brand by trimming underperforming SKUs while focusing on innovation in high-protein, low-sugar snack bars and shakes [1][2] - The company has not indicated any plans to dispose of the Atkins brand, with management reaffirming commitment despite recent impairment charges and lowered revenue expectations [3] Market Trends - The increasing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs in the US is expected to support Atkins, as users will require protein- and fiber-rich foods [4] - A broader trend towards protein consumption is also noted, with other companies like Supreme acquiring weight-loss brands to capitalize on this shift [4] Financial Outlook - The outlook for fiscal year 2026 reflects a balance between long-term ambitions, growth expectations for Quest and OWYN, and challenges such as reduced distribution for Atkins and inflation-related cost pressures [6] - Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard noted that the recent decline in Simply Good Foods' share price appears oversold, given the company's alignment with consumer interest in high-protein and low-sugar products [6] Brand Performance - Despite the challenges, 75% of Atkins brand sales, which now account for only 25% of total company sales, are reportedly growing healthily with solid margins [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a 9% increase in net sales, with 3% organic growth and a 3% increase in adjusted EBITDA [6][32] - In Q4, reported net sales were $369 million, a decline of 1.8% year-over-year, while organic net sales grew 3.5% [28][29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $66.2 million, down 14.5% from the previous year, primarily due to inflationary pressures and the impact of the 53rd week [30][32] - The company recorded a non-cash impairment loss of $60.9 million related to the Atkins brand [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quest generated nearly two-thirds of the company's net sales in Q4, with consumption growth of 11% and net sales growth of over 13% for the fiscal year [16][20] - Atkins experienced a consumption decline of 12% in Q4 and 10% for the full year, primarily due to distribution losses [20][21] - OWYN saw a consumption increase of 14% in Q4 and 34% for the full year, despite facing some product quality issues [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nutritional snacking category grew by 13% in fiscal year 2025, reflecting a strong consumer trend towards high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb products [7][16] - The company noted that over 70% of Americans are actively seeking more protein and fewer carbs in their diets [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company's vision is to be a leader in high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb food and beverage, capitalizing on a generational shift towards these products [6][7] - The integration of OWYN has been largely completed, and the company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and marketing efforts [8][24] - The company is investing in innovation and expanding capacity to support its fast-growing salty snacks business [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges such as inflation and distribution losses for Atkins but expressed confidence in overcoming these issues [10][14] - The company expects net sales growth for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of -2% to +2%, with a focus on Quest and OWYN offsetting declines in Atkins [39][40] - Management anticipates gross margins to decline by 100-150 basis points in fiscal year 2026, with a stronger second half expected [39][42] Other Important Information - The company repaid $150 million of its term loan debt in fiscal year 2025 and has a strong balance sheet with low net debt levels [35][36] - A $150 million increase to the stock repurchase program was approved by the board, reflecting confidence in the business [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of OWYN product quality issues on future sales - Management acknowledged the product quality issue related to pea protein but stated that it has been rectified and is confident in OWYN's growth trajectory moving forward [46][47][50] Question: Competition in the high-protein, low-sugar market - Management noted that competition is not new and emphasized the importance of agility and innovation to stay ahead in the market [55][59] Question: Top-line guidance and expected performance of Quest and OWYN - Management confirmed that Quest is expected to grow in the high single digits, while OWYN is projected to be in the double-digit range, with Atkins facing a decline [65][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a 9% increase in net sales, with 3% organic growth and a 3% increase in adjusted EBITDA [6][32] - In Q4, reported net sales were $369 million, a decline of 1.8% year-over-year, while organic net sales grew 3.5% [28][29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $66.2 million, down 14.5% from the previous year, primarily due to inflationary pressures and the impact of a 53rd week in the prior year [30][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quest generated nearly two-thirds of the company's net sales in Q4, with a year-over-year consumption growth of 11% and net sales growth of over 13% for the full year [16][20] - Atkins experienced a consumption decline of 12% in Q4 and 10% for the full year, largely due to distribution losses [20][21] - OWYN saw a consumption growth of 14% in Q4 and 34% for the full year, with household penetration increasing to 4.2% [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nutritional snacking category grew by 13% in fiscal year 2025, reflecting a strong consumer trend towards high protein and low sugar products [7][16] - The company noted that over 70% of Americans are actively seeking more protein and fewer carbs in their diets, indicating a favorable market environment [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a leader in high protein, low sugar, and low carb food and beverage, capitalizing on a generational shift in consumer preferences [6][7] - Investments in innovation and marketing have increased, with a focus on expanding distribution and enhancing product offerings [8][9] - The company is proactively managing the Atkins brand to align shelf space with sales and support the growth of Quest and OWYN [13][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges such as inflation and distribution losses for Atkins but expressed confidence in overcoming these hurdles [10][14] - The company expects net sales growth for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of -2% to +2%, with a stronger second half anticipated [39][40] - Management emphasized the importance of innovation and marketing investments to drive growth and improve margins in the future [39][42] Other Important Information - The company repaid $150 million of its term loan debt in fiscal year 2025 and repurchased nearly 1.6 million shares [35][36] - A non-cash impairment loss of $60.9 million was recorded related to the Atkins brand, reflecting updated revenue projections [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of OWYN product quality issues on future sales - Management confirmed that the product quality issue related to pea protein has been addressed and expressed confidence in OWYN's growth trajectory moving forward [46][47][50] Question: Competition in the high protein, low sugar market - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized the company's agility and robust supply chain as key advantages [55][59] Question: Top-line guidance and expected growth rates - Management indicated that Quest and OWYN are expected to grow in the high single digits and double digits respectively, while Atkins is projected to decline by about 20% [65][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported net sales were $369 million, a decline of 1.8% year-over-year, while organic net sales grew 3.5% [26][27] - Adjusted EBITDA was $66.2 million, down 14.5% from the previous year, primarily due to inflationary pressures and the impact of lapping the 53rd week [28][30] - Gross profit was $126.6 million, a decline of 13.3%, with gross margin at 34.3%, down 450 basis points year-over-year [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quest generated nearly two-thirds of the company's net sales in Q4, with consumption growth of 11% and net sales growth of over 13% for the full year [15][19] - Atkins experienced a consumption decline of 12% in Q4 and 10% for the full year, primarily due to distribution losses [19][20] - OWYN saw consumption growth of 14% in Q4 and 34% for the full year, with household penetration increasing to 4.2% [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nutritional snacking category grew by 13% in fiscal 2025, with a significant shift towards high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb products [6][14] - Quest and OWYN now represent nearly three-quarters of the company's net sales, both growing at double-digit rates [6][15] - The company is expanding its presence in mainstream aisles, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [66][67] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a leader in high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb food and beverage, capitalizing on a generational shift in consumer preferences [5][14] - There is a focus on innovation, with increased investment in R&D and marketing to enhance product offerings and brand awareness [8][66] - The company is proactively managing the Atkins brand to align shelf space with sales, while prioritizing growth for Quest and OWYN [10][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges such as inflation and distribution losses for Atkins but expressed confidence in overcoming these headwinds [9][12] - The outlook for fiscal 2026 includes expected net sales growth in the range of -2% to +2%, with a focus on Quest and OWYN offsetting declines in Atkins [35][36] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term growth strategies despite short-term challenges [24][36] Other Important Information - The company repaid $150 million of its term loan debt in fiscal 2025 and has a strong balance sheet with low net debt levels [32][33] - A $150 million increase to the stock repurchase program was approved, reflecting management's confidence in the business [33] - The company plans to invest $30 to $40 million in capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 to support growth initiatives [40][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of OWYN's product quality issues on future sales - Management confirmed that the product quality issue related to pea protein has been addressed and expressed confidence in OWYN's growth trajectory moving forward [43][45] Question: Competition in the high-protein, low-sugar market - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape but emphasized the company's agility and robust supply chain as key advantages [50][52] Question: Top-line guidance and expected growth rates for Quest and OWYN - Management indicated that Quest is expected to grow in the high single digits, while OWYN is projected to grow in the double-digit range, with Atkins facing a decline [59][60]

Financial Performance in Fiscal Year 2025 - The company reported net sales growth of 9%[9], with organic net sales growth of 3%[9] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 3%[9] - Quest's FY25 organic net sales increased by 13% year-over-year[14], reflecting nearly 20% 5-Year CAGR[14] - OWYN's full fiscal year retail takeaway grew 34%[25] - Atkins' FY25 retail takeaway declined 10%[19] - Q4 2025 reported net sales grew -1.8% year-over-year to $363.5 million[32] from $351.1 million[32] in Q4 2024 - Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA decreased 14.5% year-over-year to $66.2 million[34] from $77.5 million[34] in Q4 2024 - Fiscal Year 2025 net sales increased 9% year-over-year to $1,450.9 million[36] from $1,306.7 million[36] in FY24 - Fiscal Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.4% year-over-year to $278.2 million[38] from $269.1 million[38] in FY24 Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook - The company anticipates net sales to be between -2% to +2%[10][46] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between -4% to +1%[10][46]

Core Viewpoint - The Simply Good Foods Company reported solid financial results for fiscal year 2025, with net sales increasing by 9% and a focus on integrating the OWYN acquisition while navigating inflationary pressures and evolving consumer habits [2][11][12]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, net sales were $369.0 million, a decrease of 1.8% year-over-year, primarily due to a 6.9% headwind from lapping an extra week in the previous year [3][6]. - Organic net sales growth was 3.5%, with the OWYN acquisition contributing $5.6 million, or 1.5%, to reported net sales growth [3][11]. - Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $126.6 million, down 13.3% from the previous year, with a gross margin of 34.3%, reflecting a 450 basis point decrease due to elevated input costs [5][12]. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased to $138.4 million, up $40.3 million year-over-year, with selling and marketing expenses decreasing by $8.4 million due to planned reductions for the Atkins brand [7][13]. - General and administrative expenses were $40.6 million, slightly down from the previous year, with a notable decrease in costs excluding integration expenses [7][13]. Net Income and Earnings - The company reported a net loss of $12.4 million for the fourth quarter, compared to a net income of $29.3 million in the prior year, resulting in a loss per diluted share of $0.12 [6][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $66.2 million, a decrease of 14.5% from $77.5 million in the previous year [9][10]. Fiscal Year 2025 Summary - For the full fiscal year 2025, net sales reached $1,450.9 million, a 9% increase driven by a 7.9% contribution from the OWYN acquisition and 3.0% organic growth [11][15]. - Gross profit for the year was $525.7 million, up 2.8% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.2%, reflecting a decrease of 220 basis points due to inflationary pressures [12][15]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of fiscal year 2025, the company had cash of $98.5 million and a term loan balance of $250.0 million, having repaid over $200.0 million of its debt during the year [18][19]. - Cash flow from operations was approximately $178.5 million, down from $215.7 million in the previous year, primarily due to higher working capital needs [19]. Outlook for Fiscal Year 2026 - The company anticipates a balanced outlook for fiscal year 2026, with expectations for net sales growth between -2% and +2% year-over-year and a decline in gross margins by 100 to 150 basis points [24][21]. - Increased marketing spending is planned for Quest and OWYN, with expectations for stronger performance in the second half of the fiscal year [21][22].

Company Overview - The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) operates as a "nutritious snacking platform" with three main brands: Quest, Atkins, and OWYN [2] - Atkins represents approximately 30% of net sales but is experiencing a decline, with FY 2024 sales down 6.6% [2][4] - Quest maintains brand strength but is facing moderating growth due to increased competition [3] Financial Performance - As of September 3rd, SMPL's share was trading at $28.66, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 20.05 and 14.71, respectively [1] - The company's long-term guidance suggests 4-6% sales growth and slightly higher EBITDA growth, which is now questioned due to structural headwinds [4] - The equity shows a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8% and lacks a dividend, with consensus earnings growth around 8% [5] Market Challenges - The Atkins segment is facing structural headwinds, leading to a persistent decline despite management's revitalization efforts [2][4] - Competitive pressures are increasing, particularly from established players and new entrants in the protein bar market, which leverage low barriers to entry [3][4] - The overall sales mix is highly concentrated in North America, with mass retailers and e-commerce channels accounting for over half of sales [4] Strategic Considerations - Management's focus on innovation is hindered by low R&D spending relative to peers, and promotional intensity has increased due to competitive pressures [4] - The potential for further deterioration in Atkins' performance or disappointing operational execution could lead to a downside of 10-15% from current levels [5] - While SMPL has a strong balance sheet that may allow for additional acquisitions, these may not address the underlying structural challenges [5]