1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling does not eliminate the possibility of large-scale tariffs reinstated by former President Trump, who may utilize various legal tools to re-establish a tariff system despite the ruling against the IEEPA-based tariffs [1] Group 1: Legal Tools for Tariffs - The most relied-upon tool during Trump's presidency was the Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs based on national security reasons without limits on rates or duration [2] - Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 enables the U.S. Trade Representative to impose tariffs on countries deemed discriminatory against U.S. businesses, which Trump used to initiate trade tensions with China [3] - Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows for tariffs up to 15% for significant international balance of payments deficits, but has never been utilized and is limited to 150 days [5] - Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 permits tariffs when increased imports threaten U.S. manufacturers, requiring an investigation and public hearings, with a maximum tariff of 50% [6] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act's Section 338 allows for tariffs up to 50% without prior investigation, but has not been used and may face legal challenges if invoked [7] Group 2: Implications of the Ruling - The Supreme Court's decision undermines Trump's core economic policy but does not end the overall tariff policy, as he can still leverage other legal authorities to impose tariffs [1] - Experts suggest that it is challenging to foresee a path to the end of tariffs, indicating that Trump can utilize alternative authorizations to reconstruct the existing tariff framework [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Rizhao Chuangyuan Wood Industry Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 6 million RMB, indicating a new player in the wood processing industry in Rizhao, Shandong Province [1] Company Summary - Company Name: Rizhao Chuangyuan Wood Industry Co., Ltd. [1] - Legal Representative: Yang Shuqing [1] - Registered Capital: 6 million RMB [1] - Company Type: Other limited liability company [1] - Business Duration: Until February 14, 2026, with no fixed term thereafter [1] - Registration Authority: Rizhao Lushan District Market Supervision Administration [1] Shareholder Structure - Shareholder 1: Rizhao Aochuang Business Management Co., Ltd. - 60% ownership [1] - Shareholder 2: Wanfangyuan (Shandong) Trading Co., Ltd. - 40% ownership [1] Business Scope - The company’s business activities include wood processing, wood acquisition, wood sales, manufacturing of daily wooden products, processing of construction wood and wood components, and manufacturing of arts and crafts products [1] - Additional activities include import and export of goods, sales of forestry products, manufacturing and sales of artificial boards, furniture manufacturing and sales, tree planting operations, and landscaping engineering [1] - The company is also involved in solar thermal power product sales and agricultural horticultural services [1] - Certain activities require approval from relevant authorities before commencement [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $248 million for 2025, an 8% increase from 2024, exceeding prior guidance [5][6] - Pro forma net income for the year was $89 million, or $0.57 per share, with fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $62 million and pro forma net income of $32 million, or $0.20 per share [6][9] - Cash available for distribution (CAD) increased to $199 million in 2025 from $141 million in the prior year, driven by higher Adjusted EBITDA and lower cash interest expenses [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southern Timber segment generated fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, down 8% year-over-year due to lower stumpage realizations, despite higher harvest volumes [7][13] - Pacific Northwest Timber segment reported fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $5 million, a 24% decline from the prior year, primarily due to a 26% decrease in harvest volumes [16][17] - Real estate segment achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $127 million for 2025, significantly above guidance, with fourth-quarter revenue of $42 million from approximately 3,800 acres sold [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Southern Timber segment faced challenges with pulpwood pricing, which was down 27% year-over-year due to weaker demand and recent mill closures [14][15] - In the Pacific Northwest, average delivered domestic sawlog pricing decreased 3% year-over-year, while pulpwood pricing increased 26% due to reduced availability of sawmill residuals [17] - The real estate market showed strong demand for rural and development properties, with significant premiums to timberland value, particularly in Texas and Florida [36][38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The merger with PotlatchDeltic is expected to create a premier land resources company with a diversified timberland portfolio and enhanced operational efficiencies [3][4] - The company aims to focus on disciplined capital allocation and synergies from the merger, with an estimated $40 million in run-rate synergies by the end of year two [29][30] - The company is optimistic about long-term value creation through land-based solutions, including solar and carbon capture projects [28][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the timber and lumber markets, despite current challenges [27][52] - The company anticipates improved demand and pricing in the Southern Timber segment as supply tightens due to hurricane impacts [15][52] - For 2026, the company expects full-year harvest volumes to increase due to the merger, with a conservative outlook on pricing in the Southern Timber segment [22][23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 110,000 shares at an average price of $26.31 prior to the merger announcement, with $230 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization [11][12] - A special dividend of $1.40 per share was paid, reflecting taxable gains from the sale of a New Zealand joint venture [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the real estate segment's performance and expectations for 2026? - Management noted that real estate sales are lumpy and significantly impacted by larger transactions, with strong premiums to timberland value driving outperformance [34][36] Question: What factors influenced the initial harvest guidance for the combined companies? - The guidance reflects a partial year contribution from PotlatchDeltic and aligns with Rayonier's historical sustainable yield [48][49] Question: Are there signs of stabilization in the pulpwood market? - Management indicated that while recent pressures have been challenging, they expect long-term improvements as supply tightens due to hurricane impacts [51][52] Question: What is the company's stance on M&A opportunities in the current market? - The timberland M&A market remains competitive, but the company sees share repurchases as a more attractive use of capital at this time [60][61] Question: How does the company view the integration of wood products within the timberlands portfolio? - Management believes that the integrated model will benefit shareholders over time, with a focus on maximizing returns on capital allocation [76][77]

立足新发展阶段，满洲里车站海关将紧扣"推动高质量发展"主题，精准抓机遇、用政策，以通关提速助推企业发 展提效，持续优化口岸营商环境，为进出口贸易注入强劲动能。 据了解，为助推满洲里铁路口岸外贸高质量发展，满洲里车站海关通过"关长送政策上门""通关服务专窗"等方式 为企业提供进出口货物政策咨询、通关业务指导和疑难问题解答等服务，确保中欧班列回程境内段运费扣减等惠 企措施落地见效。同时，大力推广"铁路快通"业务模式，细化通关指南，解答企业关于申报方式、归并分票货物 出现异常情况如何处置等常见问题，有效缩短进出口货物通关时间。此外，运用信息共享、应急处置、综合分析 上报"三项机制"，织密"海关+铁路+企业"信息共享数据链，提高货物通关物流信息交互效率，保障进出口货物高 效通关。"为助力更多企业拓展国外市场，我关坚持以企业需求为导向，为企业提供'零距离'政策解读和业务指 导，解答企业关于公式定价商品归类要素、价格审核、规范申报等通关要点，提升企业合规申报意识。同时，积 极协调铁路部门分配线路资源，高效衔接装卸、运输、查验等环节，保障煤炭、木材、家电等进出口货物通关顺 畅，持续以优质高效的服务为企业进出口保驾护航。"满 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。春节备货进入尾声,产区冷库成交量逐渐下降。需求方面,整体销售情况良好。库存方 面,卓创的数据显示，截至2月5日,全国冷库苹果库存为563.51万吨,同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨,同比下 降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转向需求。今年苹果质量较差，但是收购价格较高， ...

Group 1 - QXO has agreed to acquire Kodiak Building Partners from Court Square Capital Partners for approximately $2.25 billion, consisting of $2 billion in cash and 13.2 million shares, with a buyback option at $40 per share [1] - The transaction is expected to close in early Q2 2026, pending customary closing conditions, and is anticipated to significantly enhance QXO's earnings in 2026 [1] - Kodiak, a U.S. building materials distributor, achieved revenue of approximately $2.4 billion in 2025, offering a range of products including lumber, trusses, windows, doors, waterproofing materials, roofing materials, and related exterior products, along with value-added assembly, processing, and installation services [1] Group 2 - QXO aims to integrate Kodiak's structural components and exterior building products with its existing product lines to better capture market share and wallet share in the large home builder sector [1] - This acquisition will expand QXO's addressable market size to over $200 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - QXO has agreed to acquire Kodiak Building Partners from Court Square Capital Partners for approximately $2.25 billion, which includes $2 billion in cash and 13.2 million shares, with a buyback option at $40 per share [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The transaction is expected to close in early Q2 2026, pending customary closing conditions [1] - The acquisition is projected to significantly enhance QXO's earnings in 2026 [1] Group 2: Kodiak Building Partners Overview - Kodiak is a U.S. building materials distributor, with projected revenues of approximately $2.4 billion in 2025 [1] - The company’s business includes lumber, trusses, doors and windows, building supplies, waterproofing materials, roofing materials, and associated exterior products, along with value-added assembly, processing, and installation services [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - QXO aims to integrate Kodiak's structural components and exterior building products with its existing product lines to better capture market share and wallet share in the large home builder sector [1] - The acquisition will expand QXO's addressable market size to over $200 billion [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月10日 (原油) 美伊均对上周五在阿曼举行的会谈给予积极评价,并计划本周继续磋商。市场短期认为局势失控风 险降低,对冲突和供应中断的担忧有所缓解。这一判断也与政治现实相符：考虑到低油价承诺及中 期选举临近，美方在选前主动升级局势的可能性较低。然而伊朗态度依然强硬，其外长强调承认铂 浓缩权利是谈判关键,双方核心分歧显著,僵局可能持续。而特朗普在委内瑞拉的成功或增强其对 伊朗的施压信心，不愿轻易让步。因此短期内对峙难有突破。布伦特油价在68-70美元区间大幅震 荡，反映出在谈判前景不明、对峙持续的背景下，市场持续计入地缘风险溢价。预计油价将保持高 波动性，且继续蕴含显著的地缘政治风险溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡反弹。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经济委 员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续，她缘仍 存在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段，观望等待波动率下降。 （铜） 隔夜铜价随贵金属反弹，沪铜节前继续减仓，市场持续关注地缘风险与长线战略金属价值 ...