中新网北京1月10日电 (贺劭清李嘉茵)"去年春天，特朗普发动贸易战，并开始贪婪地将加拿大视作'第 51州'时，警钟似乎终于被敲响。"在美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇后，加拿大最大报纸《环球 邮报》(《The Globe and Mail》)连发多篇社论。 该报指出："美国在周六对委内瑞拉发动了军事打击。任何认为加拿大可以简单等待特朗普总统任期结 束的想法，在这个周末都破灭了。"如今，加拿大已经没有再"慢慢来"的空间。 加拿大究竟有何魅力，让美国如此"念念不忘"？ 石油资源世界第三 加拿大已探明原油储量超1600亿桶，达到全球探明储量的10%，仅次于委内瑞拉和沙特，居世界第三， 其中97%以油砂形式存在。 值得一提的是，在美国总统特朗普宣布委内瑞拉将向美国"移交"多达5000万桶石油，并以市场价格出售 后，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的加拿大原油价格暴跌，折射出两国在能源市场上的紧密关联。 国土面积世界第二 加拿大位于北美洲北半部，南接美国本土，西北邻美国阿拉斯加，北濒北冰洋。国土面积约998.5万平 方公里，仅次于俄罗斯，居世界第二。 加拿大虽国土广袤，但人口仅有4155万。目前该国居民主要集中在气候温暖的南部美加 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】 美国总统特朗普关税的"合法性之战"将见分晓。美国最高法院早前宣布，将于当地时间周五（1月9日） 对此案作出裁决。 最高法院九名大法官中，保守与自由派的比例为六比三。 当时首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨说，关税等税收一向是国会的核心权力，让总统的外交权力凌驾于国会的 基本权力之上，似乎会削弱行政、立法两权之间的制衡作用。特朗普第一任期内任命的保守派大法官尼 尔·戈萨奇表示，这将导致行政权持续扩张，国会权力逐渐丧失。 路透社1月7日援引美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）的数据称，倘若美国最高法院裁定特朗普依据《国际 紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税违法，联邦政府可能不得不向进口商退还超过1335亿美元的关 税。 当天，CBP发布了最新的统计更新数据，统计对象是自特朗普去年2月首次依据IEEPA加征关税以来的 相关进口商品。 1335亿美元的数字是截至12月14日的累计核定关税总额。其中，针对所有国家和地区的所有物品征收的 所谓"对等关税"总额为817.4亿美元，除此之外还有针对一些国家征收的芬太尼关税和针对巴西和印度 征收的惩罚性关税。 数据显示，美国针对墨西哥和加拿大征收的芬太尼关税，分别为 ...

特朗普将家具和橱柜的关税上调推迟一年 大家好，简单关注一下特朗普的关税消息。 特朗普再度推迟家具与橱柜关税上调，实施时间推迟到2027年。 据白宫声明，特朗普已将软体家具、厨房橱柜和浴室台盆柜等产品的新一轮关税上调延后一年，把实施时间推迟到2027年。 有分析指出，这是在选民对物价水平持续不满的背景下，放缓了加征关税的节奏。 特朗普在2025年结束前数小时签署了一份总统公告，决定推迟这些商品的关税上调。相关关税原本计划于本周四生效。 不过，周三的声明并未直接说明此次推迟上调关税的具体原因。 2025年9月，特朗普以国家安全为由，为针对这些木制品以及木材、木料的关税措施辩护，称其目的是保护美国本土木材产业。 他在一项调查结束后宣布征收相关关税。该调查由他指示美国商务部依据《贸易扩展法》（Trade Expansion Act）第232条（Section 232）对进口木材开 展。 2025年9月，特朗普下令对厨房橱柜和软体家具征收25%的新关税，并于10月正式生效。按原计划，到2026年税率将进一步上调：厨房橱柜关税升至 50%，软体家具升至30%。 周三的命令推迟了这次大幅上调，意味着这些商品的关税暂时仍维持 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

来源：新浪港股-好仓工作室 2025年12月29日，鴻偉(亞洲)控股（股份代号：8191）公告称，通过一般授权以認購新股份方式融资， 其中認購新股份發行10,531,237股（約0.11億股），募集約0.13億港元；扣除費用後淨得約0.12億港元。 認購價0.12港元較前一交易日收市价0.1560港元折讓約23.08%，較前五个交易日平均收市价折讓約 20.21%。認購股份占现有已发行股本約16.67%，完成後占扩大股本約14.29%。 鴻偉(亞洲)控股主要在中華人民共和國從事製造及銷售刨花板，以及種植、採伐木材及銷售木材及農產 品。所得款项中，約0.12億港元將用於償還本集團的若干未償還貸款及補充本集團的一般營運資金。本 次发行根据股东大会授予的一般授权实施，预计於認購協議之先決條件獲達成或獲豁免之日期後第三個 營業日完成。 点击查看公告原文>> 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Group 1 - The article discusses Germany's decision to use wood as a fuel source instead of coal, raising questions about the rationale behind this choice [1] - It highlights the environmental and regulatory factors influencing Germany's energy policies, particularly in the context of climate change and sustainability [1] - The article suggests that the shift towards wood burning may be driven by public perception and political pressures rather than purely economic considerations [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

Core Viewpoint - India and New Zealand have announced a free trade agreement aimed at deepening bilateral economic ties and promoting economic growth amid increasing global trade uncertainties [1][6]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The free trade agreement, which took 9 months to negotiate, aims to reduce tariff barriers, simplify regulatory processes, and expand cooperation in goods trade, services trade, and investment [1][6]. - Under the agreement, all Indian goods exported to New Zealand will receive zero-tariff access, while New Zealand will gradually enjoy tariff concessions on approximately 70% of India's tariff lines, covering 95% of its exports [1][7]. - New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years as part of the agreement [7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The bilateral trade volume between India and New Zealand is currently limited, but officials believe the agreement has strong growth potential, with expectations to double the trade volume to $2.4 billion by 2024 [7]. - New Zealand's Prime Minister stated that the agreement is expected to increase New Zealand's annual exports to India by $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion over the next 20 years [7][8]. - Key sectors benefiting from the agreement include India's textiles, apparel, engineering products, leather footwear, and seafood, while New Zealand's horticultural products, timber exports, coal, wool, and lamb will also gain [1][6]. Group 3: Strategic Context - The agreement reflects India's strategy to diversify its export destinations in response to high U.S. import tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - India is actively pursuing a broader network of free trade agreements to buffer external shocks and support its export growth targets, with ongoing negotiations with the EU, Chile, and Canada [3][8]. - The agreement with New Zealand is part of India's recent push to finalize multiple trade agreements, including those with the UAE, Australia, and the UK [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is affected by geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, with oil prices under pressure before the further fermentation of geopolitical risks [2]. - Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and if gold breaks through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [3]. - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends, with some having short - term adjustment needs and others having medium - term upward trends [4][5][8]. - Chemical products' prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policies, with varying trends of strength and weakness [12][13][14]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by weather, supply - demand, and policies, and investors need to pay attention to relevant influencing factors [36][37][38]. - The financial market, including stock index and treasury bond, is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market conditions, showing a pattern of volatility and differentiation [47][48]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full - scale blockade of US - sanctioned oil tankers, and the oil export business is normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Oil prices are under pressure after being priced for the rising geopolitical risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela affect fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may get short - term support, but there is medium - term supply pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium term [22]. - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil export eases the tension of domestic refinery asphalt raw material supply. Asphalt refinery inventory accumulates, and the overall commercial inventory reduction is weak, lacking continuous rebound power [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: US November CPI and core CPI fall below expectations. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts. Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and gold is testing the resistance at the historical high [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices continue to have a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic copper inventory increases, but there is still potential for a multi - allocation rally at the end of the year, with short - term callback and consolidation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillates around 22,000 yuan. The medium - term upward - trending pattern remains unchanged, and short - term long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of domestic and foreign mines decreases. Shanghai zinc rebounds after finding support at 22,800 yuan/ton. The short - term is strong, but the medium - term is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level. The lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost supports the price. The import window is open, and the overall supply is sufficient, constraining the price [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounds strongly. Stainless steel spot sales are weak, and the inventory accumulates. Nickel inventory increases, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic. The inventory increases, and high - level risks should be noted [11]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillates at a high level. Overseas mines keep prices firm, and the market inventory decreases. The futures price is strong, and short positions are at a disadvantage [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures fall below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the current reality is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon approaches 8,700 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and the cost support decreases. The increase space is limited [14]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, PVC rises, but the demand is weak. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but the supply pressure is large [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX rises strongly, driving PTA up. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some ethylene glycol plants plan to have maintenance, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, it is under long - term pressure due to the planned new plant production [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Soybean meal prices will follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and waiting for weather changes is recommended [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The increase in the frequency of imported soybean auctions brings short - term supply pressure. Overseas palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and short - term supply - demand weakness should be noted [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. The focus is on the import policy, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [38]. - **Corn**: Northeast and North Port corn prices decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand mismatch eases, and the Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillates weakly at a high level [40]. - **Pig**: The pig futures 01 contract hits a new low, and the 03 contract falls. The pre - Spring Festival spot price is slightly strong, but there may be a second bottom - probing after the Spring Festival [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures contracts fall, and the 03 and 04 contracts after the Spring Festival fall more. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and chicken - chick replenishment and old - chicken elimination should be followed [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton rises slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The new cotton production increases, but the sales progress is fast, supporting the price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. India and Thailand have good production expectations. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production, and Guangxi has a strong production - increase expectation [43]. - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillate. The demand enters the off - season, and the market sentiment is bearish [44]. - **Wood**: Wood futures are at a low level. The supply decreases, the demand in the off - season is okay, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fall slightly. The port inventory decreases, and the new - year contract has less warehouse - receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share index shows mixed performance, and stock index futures fall. The US core CPI hits a three - year low, and the risk preference is boosted. A - shares are supported by the strong RMB and policy expectations, showing an oscillating and differentiated pattern [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Attention should be paid to the impact of US inflation data on interest rate cuts. The domestic market sentiment improves, and the long - end bond recovers significantly [48].