Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of Wall Street analysts' recommendations, particularly focusing on StoneCo Ltd. (STNE), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other research tools like Zacks Rank to make informed investment decisions [1][5]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - StoneCo has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.67, indicating a rating between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from nine brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the nine recommendations, seven are classified as Strong Buy, accounting for 77.8% of the total recommendations [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies indicate these recommendations often lack success in guiding investors towards stocks with significant price appreciation potential [5]. - Brokerage firms tend to exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, with a ratio of five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank as an Alternative - Zacks Rank categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more effective indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is timely and reflects the latest earnings estimates, unlike ABR, which may not be up-to-date [13]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for StoneCo - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for StoneCo's current year earnings has increased by 0.7% over the past month to $1.44, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - The recent change in consensus estimates, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) for StoneCo, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [15].

Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) is experiencing growth driven by continuous product innovation, enhancing its digital ecosystem to better serve micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMBs) in Brazil [1][4] Product Innovations - Key innovations include the Pix QR Code solution for instant peer-to-merchant payments, TapTon for mobile payment acceptance, Payment Link for personalized payment URLs, and Web Checkout for improved online shopping experiences [1][2] - Additional offerings include a POS Gateway for in-store payments, a Payment Service Provider platform for marketplaces, and Split Payments to divide transactions among multiple recipients [2] Market Trends - StoneCo's software portfolio is well-positioned to benefit from Brazil's rapid transition to digital payments, with a 95% year-over-year increase in Pix transaction volume and a 10% rise in card transactions in Q1 2025 [3][8] - The company's cloud-based POS and ERP platforms are becoming essential for merchants moving away from cash [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like MercadoLibre, Inc. and NU Holdings Ltd. are also expanding their digital payment solutions, with Mercado Pago offering a comprehensive suite of services and Nubank providing secure, one-click checkouts and mobile POS solutions [5][6] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, StoneCo's shares have increased by 87.6%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 14.2% and the S&P 500's growth of 3% [7] Valuation - StoneCo's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.78X, which is lower than the industry average of 40.16X, indicating an attractive valuation [10]

Core Insights - StoneCo (STNE) and PayPal (PYPL) are leading fintech companies focusing on digital payments, with StoneCo primarily in Latin America and PayPal operating globally [1] - Both companies are expanding their services beyond core payments to include value-added financial services for merchants and consumers [1] Performance Comparison - Over the past 30 days, StoneCo shares increased by 12.7%, outperforming the broader sector's 4.9% gain and the S&P 500's 2.8% rise, while PayPal shares rose by 3.1% [5][7] StoneCo's Competitive Advantages - StoneCo is leveraging localized execution and operational discipline in Brazil, enhancing customer experience through product innovation and expanding its acquiring infrastructure [6][8] - The company has identified R$3 billion in excess capital and has returned approximately R$1 billion year-to-date through aggressive share repurchase programs, with a total of R$2.4 billion in buybacks over the past 12 months [8] PayPal's Strategic Transformation - Under CEO Alex Chriss, PayPal is undergoing a cultural shift that emphasizes agility and product focus, leading to improvements in core product innovation and branded checkout experiences [9][12] - Despite progress, PayPal faces challenges in unbranded checkout and mobile market share losses, particularly against competitors like Apple Pay and Shopify [12] Valuation Analysis - StoneCo is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.80, significantly below its five-year median of 20.76, while PayPal's forward P/E is 13.46, also below its five-year median of 20.62 [15] - Both companies are undervalued compared to the sector's forward P/E of 25.96, with StoneCo trading at a greater discount relative to both PayPal and the sector [15] Investment Outlook - StoneCo is highlighted as a strong buy due to its innovation, disciplined capital allocation, and favorable valuation, while PayPal is rated as a hold amid ongoing transformation challenges [17][18] - The strategic execution of StoneCo in Brazil's expanding digital economy, along with robust shareholder returns, presents a more immediate upside potential compared to PayPal [18]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Internet - Software sector may find StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) more attractive than F5 Networks (FFIV) for value investing opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - StoneCo Ltd. has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend compared to F5 Networks, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - STNE's forward P/E ratio is 10.60, significantly lower than FFIV's forward P/E of 19.83, suggesting STNE may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for STNE is 0.40, while FFIV's PEG ratio is 2.88, indicating STNE's expected earnings growth is more favorable relative to its price [5] - STNE has a P/B ratio of 2.19 compared to FFIV's P/B of 5, further supporting STNE's valuation attractiveness [6] Value Grades - STNE has earned a Value grade of B, while FFIV has a Value grade of D, highlighting STNE's superior valuation metrics [6]

Core Insights - The markets started 2025 positively but have faced increased volatility due to the Trump administration's tariff plans and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to cautious investor behavior [1] Company Analysis - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) is projected to have a sales growth rate of 10.9% in 2025 and currently holds a Zacks Rank 1, indicating strong buy potential [12] - Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) is expected to see a sales growth rate of 4.6% in 2025 and also holds a Zacks Rank 1 [13] - Intuit Inc. (INTU) is anticipated to achieve a sales increase of 15.1% in fiscal 2025, the highest among the highlighted stocks, and has a Zacks Rank 1 [14] - The Mosaic Company (MOS) is expected to grow sales by 11.5% in 2025 and currently has a Zacks Rank 2 [15] Investment Strategy - A focus on companies with strong sales growth and high cash balances is essential for identifying potential investment opportunities [6] - Key screening parameters include a 5-Year Historical Sales Growth (%) greater than the industry average and cash flow exceeding $500 million [6] - Additional metrics for stock selection include a P/S Ratio lower than the industry average, positive sales estimate revisions, operating margin greater than 5%, and a Return on Equity (ROE) greater than 5% [7][8][9]

Financial Performance - For 2025, StoneCo Ltd. has simplified its guidance to focus on adjusted gross profit and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), expecting growth of 14% and 18% year over year respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, gross profit increased by 19% year over year, exceeding yearly guidance, while EPS rose by 36%, nearly double the predicted annual increase [2] - The gross profit-to-TPV ratio improved by 5 basis points to 1.23% in Q1, indicating effective repricing and operational efficiency [4][9] Strategic Initiatives - StoneCo is prioritizing profitability over volume, anticipating a slight slowdown in MSMB TPV growth while aiming for a 14% TPV CAGR by 2027 [3] - The company implemented a cash sweep plan, converting R$6.3 billion of R$8.3 billion in retail deposits into on-platform time deposits to reduce financing costs and improve margins [3] - The credit portfolio expanded to R$1.4 billion with low default rates, aligning with long-term objectives [4] Competitor Outlook - PagSeguro Digital Ltd. expects gross profit growth between 7% and 11% year over year, with EPS growth of 11-15% [5][6] - DLocal Limited projects strong TPV growth of 35-45% year over year, with revenue growth of 25-35% and gross profit improvement of 20-25% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year to date, StoneCo shares have gained 72.2%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 10.7% and the S&P 500's growth of 1.2% [8] - StoneCo's valuation appears attractive, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.04X, well below the industry average of 39.01X [10]

Industry Overview - Financial technology (fintech) is a transformative investment space merging finance and technology, offering services like online banking, peer-to-peer payments, insurance, cryptocurrency, and cybersecurity [1] - The fintech space is expected to benefit from expanding transaction volumes due to the widespread adoption of digital means, accelerated by the pandemic [2] - The innovative nature of fintech positions it favorably in the evolving financial landscape, with significant growth potential driven by mobile and broadband network expansion [3] Catalysts for Growth - Consumer behavior is shifting towards digital platforms, driven by convenience and cost-effectiveness, which supports fintech's adaptability to changing technological needs [3] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is revolutionizing banking, payments, and investments, providing efficient and secure financial solutions [4] Company Highlights BILL Holdings Inc. (BILL) - BILL primarily serves small and medium businesses (SMB) with its AI-enabled financial software platform, benefiting from an expanding clientele and diversified business model [7] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for BILL are 13.7% and 11.2%, respectively, for the next year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings improving by 5.6% in the last 60 days [10] ACI Worldwide Inc. (ACIW) - ACIW develops software products for facilitating digital payments, powering electronic payments for over 5,000 organizations globally, executing $14 trillion in payments daily [12][13] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for ACIW are 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively, for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 1.1% in the last 60 days [13] Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) - Shift4 Payments provides software and payment processing solutions, offering omni-channel card acceptance and processing across multiple payment types [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for FOUR are 26% and 43.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 17.2% in the last 60 days [16] OppFi Inc. (OPFI) - OppFi operates as a specialty finance platform for community banks, providing access to credit for consumers turned away by mainstream options [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for OPFI are 10% and 29.5%, respectively, for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 15% in the last 60 days [18] StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) - StoneCo is a leading provider of point-of-sale payment processing services, empowering businesses to accept various payment methods and manage accounts [20] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for STNE are 10.9% and 4.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improving by 11.9% in the last 60 days [21]

Key Takeaways StoneCo deposits hit R$8.3B in Q1, up 38% year over year, fueled by rising Pix usage and strategic bundling. STNE's cash sweep strategy could add 75-125 bps annually per R$1B in deposits converted to time deposits. StoneCo's deposit growth enhances retention, credit funding, and cushions interest rate volatility impact.In the first quarter of 2025, StoneCo Ltd.’s (STNE) deposit growth was fueled by rising Pix (Brazilian instant payment ecosystem) usage, strategic bundling and its cash sweep ...

Despite significant volatility caused by the environment, StoneCo ( STNE ) nearly tripled its revenue from 2020 and also became profitable, in not the best scenario. Now, the company targets a significant ramp-up in profit which could potentially makeAs of 2025, I've got over 10 years of researching companies. In total, throughout my investing life, I estimate that I researched (in depth) well over 1000 companies, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many ...

Key Takeaways StoneCo repriced nearly all clients in Q1 to align pricing with Brazil's 15% yield curve. STNE's gross profit rose 19% and EPS jumped 36%, both exceeding full-year guidance due to repricing. STNE's Financial Services revenues grew 20%, driven by repricing, with stable MSMB market share.In the first quarter of 2025, StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) strategically executed a broad repricing initiative aimed at preserving profitability in the face of higher interest rates and a widened yield curve from late ...