Core Insights - The global fintech market is projected to reach $1.12 trillion by 2032, attracting investor interest in disruptors like StoneCo and Upstart that can scale profitably amid changing regulatory and macroeconomic conditions [1] Company Overview: StoneCo - StoneCo is focused on Brazil's micro, small, and medium business (MSMB) market, offering a full-stack payments, banking, and credit solution [2] - The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in MSMB total payment volume (TPV) to R$119.5 billion and a 17% rise in active clients to 4.3 million in Q1 2025 [4] - Retail deposits grew by 38% year over year to R$8.3 billion, with R$6.3 billion in time deposits, enhancing funding diversification [5] - StoneCo's credit portfolio stands at R$1.4 billion with non-performing loans (NPLs) at 4.57%, indicating effective risk management [5] - A strategic divestiture of its software segment, including the R$3.41 billion sale of Linx, is expected to improve margins and operational focus [6] - The company has seen an increase in "heavy users" of its services, rising from 26% to 38% [6] Company Overview: Upstart - Upstart utilizes an AI-driven underwriting platform, automating 92% of loans in Q1 2025, with conversion rates improving to 19% [8] - The company is expanding into new verticals such as auto refinancing and HELOCs, with auto originations increasing by 42% sequentially and HELOC volumes growing by 52% [9] - Over 50% of Upstart's loan volume is now backed by committed capital, with 32% of originations coming from super-prime borrowers, indicating improved credit quality [9] Valuation and Performance Comparison - StoneCo trades at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.39, while Upstart's P/S ratio is 6.64, suggesting StoneCo is more attractively valued [10][15] - StoneCo's sales and EPS estimates for 2025 imply year-over-year increases of 7.6% and 10.4%, respectively [12] - Upstart's sales estimates for 2025 indicate a significant year-over-year rise of 59.5% [14] - Year-to-date, StoneCo shares have outperformed both Upstart and the S&P 500 composite [16] Conclusion - StoneCo presents a compelling investment opportunity with its focus on profitable growth in an emerging market, while Upstart is recognized for its innovative approach in credit underwriting [18] - Despite both companies holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), StoneCo's valuation appears more favorable at this time [19]

Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. is strategically divesting a significant portion of its software segment, which accounts for 79% of its software segment revenues in 2024, to focus on core financial services and micro, small, and medium businesses (MSMB) [1][9] Group 1: Strategic Moves - The proposed sale of Linx and related software assets to TOTVS for R$3.41 billion has been agreed upon, alongside the sale of SimplesVet to PetLove for R$140 million [2] - This divestiture is expected to enhance operating efficiency and profit margins as StoneCo aims to become Brazil's leading platform for MSMBs [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, StoneCo's MSMB total payment volume (TPV) increased by 17% year over year to R$119.5 billion, driven by effective repricing efforts and expanding product adoption [3][9] - The client base for MSMBs grew by 17% to 4.3 million active clients [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies - The bundling strategy has proven successful, with clients using three or more products increasing to 38%, up from 26% a year ago, indicating effective cross-selling of integrated payments, credit, and banking services [4] - The banking segment is also expanding rapidly, with total retail deposits rising by 38% to R$8.3 billion [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The PIX instant payment system has become a significant monetization lever, with transaction volumes increasing by 95% year over year, enhancing client deposits and engagement [5] - StoneCo projects MSMB TPV to exceed R$670 billion by 2027, reflecting a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 levels [5] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - PagSeguro Digital Ltd. reported that MSMB TPV grew by 11.2% year over year to R$95.2 billion, with a focus on higher-value MSMBs [6] - MercadoLibre's Mercado Pago saw TPV rise by 43% year over year to $58.3 billion, with a 30%+ increase in monthly fintech users [7] Group 6: Stock Performance and Valuation - StoneCo's shares have surged by 76.5% year to date, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS suggests a year-over-year growth of 10.4%, while the estimate for 2026 indicates a 16.1% increase [10] - StoneCo's shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 8.66X, significantly below the industry average of 40.07X, indicating a potentially undervalued position [12]

Core Viewpoint - StoneCo Ltd. has announced significant divestments in its software segment to unlock shareholder value and streamline operations, allowing management to focus on core growth strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Divestment Details - The divested assets accounted for approximately 79% of the software segment's revenue and 71% of its profitability in 2024, representing 9% of StoneCo's total revenues and 6% of its profitability [2]. - The sale of Linx and related software assets to TOTVS is valued at R$3.05 billion, plus an estimated R$360 million in net cash, totaling R$3.41 billion [2]. - The scope of the Linx sale includes software for various verticals such as education, retail, and healthcare [3]. - The sale of SimplesVet to PetLove is valued at R$140 million, representing approximately 4x revenue, and has already received regulatory approval [5]. Group 2: Remaining Software Businesses - The remaining software businesses not included in the divestments generated R$326 million in revenues and R$32 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024, and will be evaluated for strategic fit and long-term value [6]. Group 3: Use of Proceeds - StoneCo plans to disclose detailed plans for the use of proceeds from the divestments upon transaction closing, with an expectation to return excess capital to shareholders when immediate growth opportunities are not available [8].

Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. is strategically focusing on the micro, small, and medium business (MSMB) segment in Brazil's digital payments landscape, reporting a 17% year-over-year growth in MSMB total payment volume (TPV) to R$119.5 billion in Q1 2025 [1][7] - The company’s bundling strategy has led to a significant increase in heavy users, rising to 38% from 26% year-over-year, indicating strong cross-sell momentum [2][7] - StoneCo projects a continued growth trajectory with MSMB TPV expected to exceed R$670 billion by 2027, reflecting a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [3][7] Company Performance - StoneCo's active MSMB client base increased by 17% year-over-year to 4.3 million, demonstrating robust traction despite macroeconomic challenges [1][7] - The company has seen a 95% year-over-year growth in PIX transactions, which are replacing traditional debit transactions and enhancing client deposits [2] - StoneCo's shares have surged 71.5% year-to-date, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [6] Peer Comparison - PagSeguro Digital Ltd. reported an 11.2% year-over-year increase in MSMB TPV to R$95.2 billion, with MSMB segment accounting for 74% of its total TPV in Q1 2025 [4] - MercadoLibre, Inc. achieved a total payment volume of $58.3 billion, up 43% year-over-year, with significant growth in active fintech users [5] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for StoneCo's 2025 EPS suggests a 10.37% growth year-over-year, while the 2026 estimate indicates a 16.11% increase [8] - StoneCo's current forward 12-month P/E ratio is 8.42X, significantly below the industry average of 40.18X, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [10]

StoneCo Ltd. (NASDAQ: STNE ), a Brazilian fintech company in which Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A ) took a stake in the IPO, has been one of my preferred international fintech stocks for a while now. Although I did complete a profitableDilantha De Silva is an experienced equity analyst and investment researcher with over 10 years in the investment industry. He writes insightful articles for Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus, TipRanks, and ValueWalk, with a significant following on Seeking Alpha. Dilantha’s expertise spa ...

Company Performance - StoneCo Ltd. ended the recent trading session at $14.87, showing a -1.98% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500 which lost 0.4% [1] - Prior to the recent trading, shares of StoneCo had gained 0.53%, lagging behind the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 6.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.97% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release for StoneCo Ltd. is scheduled for August 7, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.34 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 13.33% [2] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is projected at $671.49 million, reflecting a 9.16% increase from the same period last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $1.44 per share and revenue of $2.73 billion, representing changes of +6.67% and +10.94% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for StoneCo Ltd. indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - StoneCo Ltd. is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 10.53, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 28.28 [6] - The company's PEG ratio stands at 0.42, significantly lower than the average PEG ratio of 2.18 for the Internet - Software industry [6] Industry Ranking - The Internet - Software industry, which includes StoneCo Ltd., ranks in the top 26% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank, with a current rank of 64 [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) shares have surged 108.7%, significantly outperforming the Internet–Software industry and the S&P 500, which rose around 16.2% and 5.2% respectively [1] - The stock's impressive performance positions StoneCo ahead of major fintech rivals like PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) and DLocal Limited (DLO) [1][2] Company Performance - StoneCo is strategically positioned to benefit from the booming global fintech industry, with the market projected to grow from $340.1 billion in 2024 to over $1.12 trillion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 16.2% [4] - The company has seen a 17% year-over-year increase in active clients in its payments business, reaching 4.3 million, and a 17% growth in total payment volume (TPV) [6] - Retail deposits reached R$8.3 billion, up 38% year over year, with R$6.3 billion in time deposits as part of a "cash sweep" strategy [7] Financial Metrics - StoneCo's total credit portfolio reached R$1.4 billion, with non-performing loans (NPLs) over 90 days at a controlled 4.57% [9] - The company's software segment revenues grew 11% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 12% [10] - STNE trades at a forward P/E of 10.67X, significantly below its three-year high of 32.69X and the industry average of 40.58X [13] Strategic Initiatives - Management has executed R$843 million in share buybacks, lifting total repurchases over the past 12 months to R$2.4 billion, indicating a robust 12% distribution yield [12] - The company is witnessing stronger adoption of its financial services, with 38% of clients classified as heavy users by the end of Q1 [11] Market Position - StoneCo's integrated solutions and expanding ecosystem position it well for long-term growth as fintech adoption accelerates across Latin America [14] - The average brokerage recommendation for StoneCo is 1.67 on a scale of 1 to 5, with 77.78% of recommendations being Strong Buy [18][21]

Group 1 - StoneCo Ltd. will announce its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 07, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial results will take place on the same day at 5:00 PM ET [1] - The company will enter a Quiet Period related to its second quarter 2025 financial results starting July 23, 2025 [3] Group 2 - Stone is recognized as a leading provider of financial technology and software solutions, enabling merchants to conduct commerce across multiple channels [4]

Company Performance - StoneCo Ltd. closed at $16.18, with a gain of +1.13% from the previous trading session, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.83% [1] - The stock has increased by 15.69% over the past month, while the Computer and Technology sector gained 8.25% and the S&P 500 gained 4.99% during the same period [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming EPS for StoneCo Ltd. is projected at $0.34, indicating a 13.33% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $671.49 million, reflecting a 9.16% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $1.44 per share, representing a +6.67% change from the previous year [3] - Revenue for the fiscal year is projected at $2.73 billion, indicating a +10.94% change from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for StoneCo Ltd. reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in the company's performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses these estimate changes, currently ranks StoneCo Ltd. at 2 (Buy) [6] Valuation Metrics - StoneCo Ltd. has a Forward P/E ratio of 11.11, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 28.74 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.44, significantly lower than the Internet - Software industry average PEG ratio of 2.22 [7] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 46, placing it in the top 19% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Concept - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is a key metric for value investors to identify undervalued stocks with potential for exceptional returns, calculated as market price per share divided by book value per share [1][5] Understanding Book Value - Book value represents the total value remaining for shareholders if a company were to liquidate its assets after settling all liabilities, calculated by subtracting total liabilities from total assets [3][4] P/B Ratio Insights - A P/B ratio under 1.0 indicates a potentially undervalued stock, while a ratio above 1.0 suggests overvaluation [5][6] - Stocks with low P/B ratios can indicate strong growth prospects, but a low ratio may also reflect weak asset returns or overstated assets [7][8] Screening Parameters for Value Stocks - Stocks should have a P/B ratio lower than the industry median, a P/S ratio below the industry median, and a P/E ratio using F(1) estimates lower than the industry median [11][12] - A PEG ratio under 1 indicates undervaluation relative to growth prospects, and stocks must trade at a minimum price of $5 [13] - High trading volume and favorable Zacks Rank (1 or 2) are also important criteria for screening [14] Identified Low P/B Stocks - Centene Corporation (CNC) has a projected 3-5 year EPS growth rate of 11.5% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2 with a Value Score of A [16] - CVS Health (CVS) has a projected EPS growth rate of 11.4% and also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 with a Value Score of A [16] - The ODP Corporation (ODP) has a projected EPS growth rate of 14% and holds a Zacks Rank of 1 with a Value Score of A [17] - StoneCo (STNE) has a projected EPS growth rate of 25.3% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2 with a Value Score of B [18] - Paysafe Limited (PSFE) has a projected EPS growth rate of 17.9% and holds a Zacks Rank of 1 with a Value Score of A [19]