Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, with expectations of revenue growth driven by mass capacity demand, particularly from cloud customers and AI applications [1][2][3]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.75 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, compared to non-GAAP earnings of 33 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1]. - Management anticipates revenues of approximately $2.1 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $1.70 per share [2]. - Revenue estimates for the HDD segment are projected at $1.989 billion, reflecting a 34.7% increase year-over-year, while non-HDD segment revenues are expected to decline by 15.6% to $150.2 million [8]. Market Dynamics - Seagate expects continued improvements in mass capacity due to rising nearline demand from global cloud customers and enhancements in enterprise and OEM markets [2]. - The company has increased production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now its top-selling product line [4]. - The demand for HDDs is anticipated to rise as cloud service providers focus on AI application development and infrastructure [3]. Revenue and Margin Expectations - Mass capacity revenues are expected to increase by 50.1% year-over-year to $1.77 billion in the fiscal third quarter [7]. - Non-GAAP gross margin is projected to be 35.8%, up from 26.1% in the prior-year quarter, benefiting from strong demand for new nearline products and pricing actions [9]. Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - Supply chain issues are expected to impact revenues by approximately $200 million, although the company plans to meet build-to-order commitments [2]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses for the fiscal third quarter are estimated at $290 million [9]. Earnings Prediction - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for Seagate, with an Earnings ESP of -1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [10].

Macro Data - In March, retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in nearly 26 months, attributed to consumers stocking up on goods before price hikes due to tariffs [8][12] - The initial jobless claims for the second week of April were 215,000, better than the expected 225,000, indicating a stable job market [8][12] - New housing starts in March decreased by 11.4% to an annualized rate of 1.324 million units, below the expected 1.42 million units, impacted by rising material prices and high inventory levels [8][12] Market Sentiment - The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) has a 7-day moving average of 579 points, slightly down from the previous week's high of 703, indicating high uncertainty regarding tariff policies [13][15] - The AAII survey shows that 56.9% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while only 25.4% are bullish, reflecting a continued spread of pessimism [13][16] - The Fear and Greed Index closed at 21 points, remaining in the 'extreme fear' zone for four consecutive weeks [17][18] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets rose by 0.3% last week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets (2.1% vs. 0.1%) [19][21] - Gold prices continued to rise, increasing by 3.0% last week, while Bitcoin futures rose by 1.6% [21] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5%, entering a sideways consolidation phase, while the Hang Seng Index also experienced a decline of 0.5% [21][23] Industry Performance - Among 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 21 saw gains, with transportation, real estate investment trusts, and oil and petrochemicals performing well [22][23] - The strongest sectors included pharmaceuticals, transportation, and oil and petrochemicals, with pharmaceuticals seeing an estimated daily fund intensity of approximately $20.7 billion [29][30] S&P 500 Valuation - As of last week, the S&P 500's trailing PE ratio was 24.1, slightly below the ten-year average of 24.5, indicating reasonable but not undervalued conditions [32][34] - The forward PE ratio decreased from 20.2 to 20.0, a decline of about 1.0%, while forward EPS slightly fell from $266 to $265, a decrease of about 0.5% [32][36] Earnings Performance - 12% of S&P 500 companies reported Q1 2025 earnings, with 71% exceeding expectations, though this is below the 5-year average of 77% [37][39] - In terms of revenue, 61% of companies reported actual revenues exceeding expectations by 0.5%, lower than the 5-year average of 69% [39][41] Q2 2025 Earnings Expectations - The highest expected year-on-year earnings growth for Q2 2025 is in the communication services sector at 28.8%, followed by information technology at 17.1% [42][43] - The energy sector is expected to see the highest decline in earnings at -18.1% for Q2 2025 [42][43]

Seagate (STX) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move ...

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX ) is due to report earnings on the 22 nd of April, so I wanted to go through some numbers as well as what I am looking out for fromMSc in Finance. Long-term horizon investor mostly with 5-10 year horizon. I like to keep investing simple. I believe a portfolio should consist of a mix of growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks but usually end up looking for value more than anything. I also sell options from time to time.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, o ...

智通财经4月14日电，部分电子产品关税豁免后，美股计算机硬件制造商盘前上涨。戴尔上涨6.8%，惠 普上涨6.3%，希捷上涨4.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The HDD glass substrate industry is facing challenges due to the rapid growth of SSDs, leading to a shrinking market for HDD glass substrates, which is projected to decline from $8.87 billion in 2024 to $5.53 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.70% from 2025 to 2031 [13]. Industry Status - The production of HDD glass substrates is highly concentrated, with Hoya being the sole manufacturer, operating three production bases in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos) [2]. - The HDD industry is mature but is experiencing a decline in demand due to competition from SSDs, particularly in consumer applications like laptops, while still maintaining strong demand in data centers and enterprise storage [3]. Technological Advancements - Continuous improvements in glass substrate manufacturing technology, especially in surface treatment and smoothness, are enabling higher density storage solutions [4]. - New technologies such as MRAM (Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory) and HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) are being developed to support advanced storage media and heads [4][5]. Market Trends - The demand for higher density storage is driving the development of glass substrates, particularly with the support of HAMR and MAMR (Microwave-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technologies [5]. - The HDD market is expected to maintain stable demand in the medium to long term, especially in cloud services and data centers that require large-capacity, low-cost storage solutions [8][19]. Competitive Landscape - The rise of SSDs is intensifying competition, prompting HDD manufacturers to innovate with new technologies and materials to enhance market competitiveness [6]. - The production process for HDDs is moving towards greater automation and intelligence, utilizing AI and big data analytics to optimize production efficiency and yield [7]. Application Segmentation - Data centers are the primary application for HDD glass substrates, projected to account for 60.30% of global market revenue in 2024 [19]. - While HDDs remain relevant in enterprise storage, they are gradually being replaced by SSDs in consumer electronics due to advantages in speed, shock resistance, and power efficiency [9].

Company Overview - Seagate's shares increased by 11.7% to close at $74.29, following a significant trading volume and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump, contrasting with a 23.5% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from expanding momentum in mass capacity storage, which is a major revenue driver, supported by strengthening nearline demand from global cloud customers and improvements in enterprise and OEM markets [2] Financial Performance - Seagate is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 430.3%, with revenues projected at $2.13 billion, up 28.7% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] Industry Context - Seagate operates within the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, where another company, Agilysys, saw a 10.9% increase in its stock price, although it has returned -12.7% over the past month [4] - Agilysys' consensus EPS estimate has changed by +4.8% to $0.26, representing a year-over-year decrease of 18.8%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses significant changes in the tech sector since September, highlighting events like CES and the introduction of DeepSeek's R1 generative AI model [1] - The author emphasizes a bullish investment strategy focused on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in revenue and earnings growth, while also considering market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in the investment industry, influenced by family experience, which shapes their analytical approach [1] - The analysis style includes fundamental and sentiment analysis, with a preference for identifying opportunities across various industries [1]

Company Overview - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is positioned to benefit from strong momentum in mass capacity, which is a significant contributor to its revenues [1] - Mass capacity revenues increased by 79% year over year and 9% sequentially, driven by robust cloud demand [1] Nearline Revenue Growth - Nearline revenues nearly doubled in Q2 of fiscal 2025 compared to the previous year, reflecting a 60% growth for 2024 [2] - This growth is attributed to strong demand from cloud service providers and Enterprise/OEM clients, aligning with a 50% increase in cloud capital expenditures by customers in 2024 [2] Cloud and AI Integration - Cloud service providers are increasingly focusing on AI application development and cloud infrastructure deployment, with HDDs expected to play a crucial role in this transition [3] - Seagate anticipates a rise in HDD demand as these trends continue [3] Revenue Projections - Management forecasts Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues to be around $2.1 billion (+/- $150 million), with an estimate of $2,140.1 million [4] - Strong cloud demand is expected to mitigate seasonal declines in other markets, despite supply chain challenges potentially impacting revenues by $200 million [4] Product Innovations - Seagate has ramped up production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now the top-selling product line [6] - The company is scaling up production of HAMR-based Mozaic products and has achieved significant milestones with capacities up to 36 terabytes [7] Competitive Landscape - The data storage industry is experiencing intense competition, which could lead to pricing pressures affecting margin performance [8] - Seagate faces competition from companies like Western Digital Corporation (WDC), NetApp Inc (NTAP), and Pure Storage, Inc (PSTG) in both HDD and SSD markets [9] Competitor Insights - Western Digital has separated its HDD and Flash businesses into independent companies, focusing on innovation in storage technologies [10] - NetApp is seeing strong demand for its all-flash portfolio, with a reported annualized net revenue run rate of $3.8 billion, up 10% year over year [12] - Pure Storage reported an 11% revenue increase to $879.8 million, driven by record sales across its product offerings [13]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is currently undervalued compared to its peers and the broader market, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1][2]. Valuation Comparison - STX is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.05X, significantly lower than the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's 6.53X and the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's 3.27X [1]. - Compared to peers like IBM (3.63X), AMD (5.54X), and Agilysys (7.14X), STX's valuation appears attractive [2]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, STX stock has increased by 14.3%, while the industry has declined by 2.8% and the S&P 500 has grown by 22.2% [3]. - The stock closed at $99.21, which is 14% lower than its 52-week high of $115.32 [3]. Growth Drivers - Strong demand for mass capacity, particularly nearline products, has led to a 79% year-over-year revenue increase in mass capacity [6]. - Nearline revenues nearly doubled in the fiscal second quarter, reflecting a 60% growth forecast for 2024, driven by cloud service providers and enterprise clients [7]. - Cloud capital expenditures are expected to grow by approximately 50% in 2024, supporting demand for nearline products [8]. - The adoption of AI applications is anticipated to increase HDD demand as CSPs develop cloud infrastructure [9]. - Long-term growth is supported by STX's HAMR technology, which is expected to meet rising exabyte demand and enhance profitability [10][11]. Financial Outlook - STX projects third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues of $2.1 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $1.7 per share [14]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses are anticipated to be $290 million, with operating margins expected to grow in the low-20s percentage range [15]. Challenges - Seasonal declines in the VIA and legacy markets, along with supply constraints, are expected to impact revenue by approximately $200 million [18]. - STX has a relatively high debt level, with long-term debt at $5.676 billion against cash and cash equivalents of $1.239 billion [19]. - The company faces competition from HDD and SSD manufacturers, as well as from companies offering storage subsystems [20]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward, with a 13.2% decrease for the current quarter and a 4.2% decrease for the next [21]. - The current year earnings estimate has been revised down by 2.8% to $7.60 per share [21]. Investment Strategy - Despite robust performance and growth drivers, concerns over supply chain issues, high debt, and competition suggest a cautious approach [22]. - Holding STX stock is recommended as a prudent strategy to benefit from its industry position while managing external risks [23].