Seagate (STX) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.05 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non- recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +5.28%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this electronic storage maker would post earnings of $1.76 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.9, delivering a surprise of +7.95%. Over the last four quarters, th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record gross margin levels with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, up 170 basis points sequentially [3][4] - Revenue for June reached $2.44 billion, a 13% sequential increase and a 30% year-over-year increase [3][4] - For fiscal year 2025, revenue grew nearly 40% to $9.1 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.10 [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hard drive revenue increased by 14% sequentially, reaching $2.3 billion, driven by nearline cloud sales [4][5] - Mass capacity revenue exceeded $2 billion, up 15% sequentially and 40% year-over-year, with shipments of 151 exabytes [5][6] - Nearline shipments into cloud and edge data centers represented 91% of mass capacity volume, with a 14% sequential increase [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center market accounted for approximately 75% of fiscal year 2025 revenue, indicating strong demand from cloud and enterprise customers [7] - The company plans to focus on two main areas: data center and edge IoT, reflecting the AI-driven market [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is ramping HAMR-based MOSEIK products and has qualified three major cloud service providers [6][10] - The strategic focus is on enhancing profitability and optimizing cash generation through a structurally changed business model [13] - The company anticipates capital expenditures to be within the target range of 4% to 6% of revenue for fiscal year 2026 [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand strength for high-capacity nearline drives, supporting revenue and margin expansion [11][12] - The company expects September revenue to be in the range of $2.5 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year improvement [12] - Management noted that the visibility gained through their B2O strategy instills confidence in future demand [11][12] Other Important Information - Free cash flow nearly doubled to $425 million in June, with a commitment to return nearly 75% of free cash flow to shareholders [10][11] - The company reduced its debt balance by approximately $150 million during the quarter, exiting with a gross debt of about $5 billion [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you confirm the implied gross margin guidance for September? - Management indicated that the estimate was significantly lower than what is implied in the guidance, expecting higher gross and operating margins than modeled [18][19] Question: What are the trends in AI inference edge demand? - Management noted strong demand for video properties in the cloud and various applications at the edge, indicating growth in data storage needs [22][24] Question: How is the HAMR contribution expected to change in the coming quarters? - Management confirmed steady growth in HAMR and expects a positive impact on gross margins as higher capacity drives are ramped up [35][36] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and capacity ramp? - Management stated that demand is strong and above supply, with guidance based on production capabilities and ongoing qualifications [44][46] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape with NAND? - Management emphasized that the interface between NAND and HDD remains stable, with a strong value proposition for mass data storage in cloud markets [121][122] Question: Can you provide insights on gross margin drivers for September? - Management indicated that improvements would come from higher HAMR volume, better pricing, and cost reductions per terabyte [129][130]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seagate reported June revenue of $2,440 million, up 13% sequentially and 30% year over year [2][3] - Non-GAAP gross margin expanded by 170 basis points sequentially to 37.9% [2][7] - Non-GAAP operating margin increased by 270 basis points to 26.2% [2] - For fiscal 2025, revenue grew nearly 40% to $9,100 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.10 [3][11] - Non-GAAP net income was $556 million, resulting in non-GAAP EPS of $2.59 based on a diluted share count of approximately 215 million shares [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hard drive revenue reached $2,300 million, a 14% sequential increase, driven by nearline cloud sales [3][4] - Mass capacity revenue exceeded $2,000 million, up 15% sequentially and 40% year on year [4] - Nearline shipments into cloud and edge data centers accounted for 91% of mass capacity volume, with shipments of 137 exabytes, up 14% sequentially and 52% year on year [4] - Sales from the legacy market totaled $270 million, up 6% sequentially, while revenue from other product lines increased 3% sequentially to $163 million [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center markets accounted for about 75% of fiscal 2025 revenue, including nearline products sold to cloud and enterprise customers [6] - The company plans to focus on two main areas: data center and edge IoT, reflecting the AI-driven market [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Seagate is ramping HAMR-based MOSEIK products and building customer momentum, with three major cloud service providers qualified on these products [5] - The company aims to maintain capital discipline, with anticipated capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 within the target range of 4% to 6% of revenue [10] - The strategic focus is on driving growth, enhancing profitability, and optimizing cash generation, supported by a structurally changed business model and leading technology roadmap [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustained demand strength for high-capacity nearline drives, supporting revenue and margin expansion [11] - The company anticipates September revenue in the range of $2,500 million, reflecting a 15% improvement year over year [12] - Management noted that the global minimum tax rate will impact future earnings, with a projected non-GAAP tax rate of 16% [12][131] Other Important Information - Free cash flow nearly doubled in June to $425 million, with a commitment to return nearly 75% of free cash flow to shareholders [10][11] - Cash and cash equivalents increased 9% sequentially to $2,200 million, with a gross debt of approximately $5,000 million [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you confirm the implied gross margin guidance for September? - Management indicated that the estimate was significantly lower than what is implied in the guidance, expecting higher revenue and margins than modeled [18][20] Question: What are the trends in AI inference edge demand? - Management noted strong demand for video properties in the cloud and various applications at the edge, indicating growth in data storage needs [24][25] Question: How is the HAMR contribution expected to change in the coming quarters? - Management confirmed steady growth in HAMR and expects a positive impact on gross margins as higher capacity drives are ramped up [34][35] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth and capacity ramp? - Management stated that demand is strong and above supply, with guidance based on production capabilities and ongoing qualifications for new products [41][42] Question: How will the global minimum tax impact financials? - Management confirmed that the global minimum tax will affect both GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates, with a similar impact expected [131]

Financial Performance - Q4FY25 revenue reached $2.44 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year[6] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q4FY25 was 37.9%, up approximately 700 bps year-over-year[6, 7] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Q4FY25 increased to 26.2%, up approximately 890 bps year-over-year[6, 7] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4FY25 expanded to $2.59[6, 7] - Free cash flow for Q4FY25 nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $425 million[7] - FY25 revenue increased 39% year-over-year, with gross profit nearly doubling and operating profit more than tripling[7] Market and Technology - Hard drive revenue reached $2.3 billion, up 14% quarter-over-quarter[12] - Mass capacity revenue topped $2.0 billion, up 40% year-over-year[12] - Nearline shipments were 137 exabytes, up 52% year-over-year[12] - Average capacity per drive increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to 13 TB[6, 17] Guidance - Q1FY26 revenue is projected to be $2.50 billion ± $150 million[20] - Q1FY26 non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the mid-to-high twenties percentage of revenue[20] - Q1FY26 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is guided at $2.30 ± $0.20[20]

Group 1 - Analysts project Seagate (STX) will announce quarterly earnings of $2.46 per share, a 134.3% increase year over year [1] - Revenues are expected to reach $2.41 billion, reflecting a 27.5% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.5% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that 'Revenue by Product Line- HDD- Legacy' will be $245.91 million, a decrease of 15.2% year over year [5] - The estimate for 'Revenue by Product Line- HDD- Mass Capacity' is projected at $2.01 billion, an increase of 39.6% from the prior-year quarter [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Capacity Shipped - Total' and 'Capacity Shipped - Legacy' remains N/A, with no prior year figures available [6] Group 3 - Over the past month, Seagate shares have returned +6.7%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.9% change [6] - Seagate currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [6]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate is expected to report fiscal Q4 earnings with no growth in earnings but a significant increase in sales, indicating a mixed outlook for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict Seagate will announce earnings of $2.43 per share on sales of $2.42 billion, compared to $2.44 per share and $1.89 billion in the previous year, reflecting a 28% rise in sales [1]. - The company forecasts adjusted EPS for Q4 to range between $2.20 and $2.60, with revenue expected between $2.25 billion and $2.55 billion [2]. - Seagate's market capitalization currently stands at $32 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months amounting to $8.5 billion, and operational profits of $1.6 billion, resulting in a net income of $1.5 billion [2]. Historical Trends - Historical data shows that Seagate's stock has risen 55% of the time in the one day following earnings announcements, with a median increase of 6.1% and maximum one-day positive returns reaching 12% [1][6]. - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, leading to a positive return rate of approximately 55% [6]. - This positive return rate increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [6]. Trading Strategies - Two strategies are suggested for traders: position before the earnings release based on historical chances or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3]. - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [7].

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on July 29, with earnings estimated at $2.46 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 134.3% and revenues projected at $2.41 billion, indicating a 27.5% rise from the previous year [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - The management anticipates quarterly revenues of $2.4 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $2.4 per share [1] - Seagate has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 15.67% [1] - The expected mass capacity revenues for Q4 are projected to rise 39.5% year over year to $2 billion [7][8] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Strategy - There is a rising demand for mass capacity storage driven by increasing nearline cloud requirements, aligning with cloud investment cycles and AI-ready data center expansions [2] - Seagate's high-capacity nearline products are experiencing strong demand from cloud customers globally, contributing to increased revenues and profits [3] - The launch of the Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform featuring HAMR technology is expected to enhance Seagate's market share in mass capacity storage solutions [4] Group 3: Technology and Production - Seagate's technology strategy is focused on ramping up HAMR technology to meet the growing demand from cloud customers, with Mozaic drives being the only products in the industry offering 3 terabytes per disk [5] - The company has significantly increased production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now its top-selling product line in terms of revenue and exabyte shipments [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Margins - The gross margin for the fiscal fourth quarter is projected at 36.8%, an increase from 30.9% in the prior year, driven by strong nearline demand and optimized pricing [9] - Revenue estimates for the HDD segment are pegged at $2.25 million, reflecting a 30.1% increase from the previous year, while the non-HDD segment is expected to decline by 3.4% [8]

Industry Overview - The technology sector experienced growth in Q2 2025, driven by the strong adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, and Generative AI (GenAI) [1] - The ongoing digitalization wave is supporting the rapid adoption of technologies such as AI, cloud computing, 5G, and others [1] Earnings Reports - Several technology companies, including Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Flex, and Seagate Technology, are expected to report earnings soon, with potential to exceed estimates [2] AI and Cloud Computing Investments - The demand for AI is increasing, leading to a need for expanded data center capacity [3] - Major cloud providers like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have significant multi-year investment plans for cloud capacity and AI deployment, with Microsoft planning to invest $80 billion and Meta Platforms $64-$72 billion [3] Semiconductor Market - The advent of GenAI has spurred investments in chips, particularly GPUs, with semiconductor sales reaching $59 billion in May 2024, a 19.8% year-over-year increase [4] PC Market Growth - The PC segment saw growth in Q2 2025, with IDC estimating 68.4 million units sold, a 6.5% year-over-year increase [5] - Gartner estimates shipments at 63.2 million units, up 4.4% year-over-year, driven by an upgrade cycle and demand for AI-enabled PCs [5] Company-Specific Insights - Meta Platforms has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and is expected to report Q2 2025 ad revenues of $43.94 billion, indicating a 14.6% year-over-year growth [8][9] - Lam Research has an Earnings ESP of +2.71% and is benefiting from shifts in semiconductor demand, with a consensus revenue estimate of $3.22 billion, suggesting 48.5% year-over-year growth [11][12] - Flex Ltd has an Earnings ESP of +2.77% and is expected to report Agility Solutions revenue of $3.52 billion, indicating 4.5% year-over-year growth [14][15] - Seagate Technology has an Earnings ESP of +2.34% and is projected to report Mass Capacity revenues of $2 billion, suggesting a 39.6% year-over-year growth [17][18]

Company Overview - Seagate (STX) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive momentum outlook [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [4] Price Performance - Over the past week, Seagate shares have increased by 1.29%, outperforming the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, which rose by 0.8% [6] - In a longer time frame, Seagate's shares have risen by 12.44% over the past month, compared to the industry's 3.35% [6] - Over the last quarter, Seagate shares have surged by 82.12%, and are up 40.92% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which increased by 22.7% and 15.9% respectively [7] Trading Volume - Seagate's average 20-day trading volume is 3,888,163 shares, which serves as a baseline for price-to-volume analysis [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for Seagate have been revised upwards, while none have been lowered, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $7.95 to $7.96 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [10] Conclusion - Considering the positive price performance, trading volume, and favorable earnings outlook, Seagate is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B, making it a strong candidate for near-term investment [12]

Core Insights - Seagate is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 7.97% [1][5] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Seagate achieved earnings of $1.9 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.76 per share, resulting in a surprise of 7.95% [2] - For the previous quarter, Seagate's earnings were $2.03 per share against an expected $1.88 per share, delivering a surprise of 7.98% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Seagate have been trending higher, influenced by its history of earnings surprises, and it currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.34%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a strong likelihood of another earnings beat, with research indicating that stocks with this combination beat consensus estimates nearly 70% of the time [6][8] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may provide more accurate predictions [7] - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss but can reduce the predictive power of the metric [9] Investment Strategy - It is crucial for investors to check a company's Earnings ESP prior to quarterly releases to enhance the chances of successful investment decisions, utilizing tools like the Earnings ESP Filter to identify optimal stocks to buy or sell [10]