Summary of Tempus AI FY Conference Call (September 08, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: Tempus AI (NasdaqGS:TEM) - **Industry**: Genomics and Data Analytics in Healthcare Key Points Financial Performance - **Q2 Growth**: - Genomics business experienced a growth acceleration from 20% year-over-year in Q1 to 26% in Q2 [2] - Genomics revenue exceeded 30% growth due to reimbursement tailwinds [2] - Adjusted EBITDA improved by approximately $10 million quarter-over-quarter, with expectations to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025 [2] Business Expansion and Strategy - **Revenue Milestone**: Company is approaching $1.3 billion in revenue, with both main business segments growing at around 30% [3] - **Acquisition of Amri**: - Expected to enhance growth rates, particularly in rare diseases and pediatrics [5] - Q2 growth for Amri was over 30%, with half attributed to market share gains [14] - **Portfolio Expansion**: Focus on expanding beyond oncology into areas like rare diseases, with expectations of positive reimbursement trends [5] Market Dynamics - **Oncology Landscape**: - There are nearly 15,000 oncologists in the U.S., indicating a significant market for holistic solutions [4] - The company believes that the largest players in minimal residual disease (MRD) will also dominate treatment selection [4] - **Reimbursement Trends**: - Positive trends in securing commercial payer reimbursement, although the landscape remains fragmented [9] - MRD tests currently lack reimbursement, with expectations for improvement by the end of the year [10] Data Infrastructure and Technology - **Data Investments**: - Tempus has invested heavily in building a robust technology stack, employing around 700 software engineers [18] - The company has developed proprietary tools to make healthcare data actionable for clients [19] - **Foundation Model**: - A significant project involving over 350 petabytes of data and 1,800 GPUs aimed at generating insights for oncology [28] - The model is expected to enhance the personalization and contextualization of tests, improving clinical decision-making [29] AI and Healthcare - **AI Integration**: - The company is a leader in applying AI to diagnostics, with several FDA-approved algorithms [37] - There is a recognized need for reimbursement mechanisms for AI-driven solutions in healthcare [36] - **Future Outlook**: - AI is anticipated to have a transformative impact on healthcare, with significant potential for cost savings and improved outcomes [61] Challenges and Considerations - **Market Competition**: - The company faces competition in securing reimbursement and market share, particularly in the MRD space [10] - **Long-term Growth**: - While current growth rates are strong, the sustainability of share gains from competitors is uncertain [14] Additional Insights - **Client Engagement**: - The company has established long-term contracts with major pharmaceutical clients, indicating strong demand for its data services [33] - **Product Differentiation**: - Tempus aims to differentiate its genomic tests through integrated data insights, enhancing the value proposition for physicians [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the Tempus AI FY Conference Call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, strategic initiatives, and the evolving landscape of genomics and data analytics in healthcare.

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition to independent investment research after over 43 years in the industry, emphasizing a focus on actionable investment insights rather than adhering to external agendas [1] - The author highlights a unique approach to equity investing, combining quantitative analysis with fundamental theories to derive meaningful investment stories [1] - The article reflects on the author's extensive experience across various market segments and investment strategies, including high-yield fixed-income and quantitative asset allocation [1] Group 1 - The author has specialized in rules/factor-based equity investing strategies, aiming to use numbers to inspire human intelligence-driven investment narratives [1] - The author critiques traditional quantitative investing methods, advocating for a blend of factor analysis and classic fundamental analysis to understand a company's future potential [1] - The author has a diverse background, having covered a wide range of stocks and developed various quantitative models throughout their career [1] Group 2 - The author has managed a high-yield fixed-income fund and has experience in quantitative asset allocation strategies, which are foundational to modern Robo Advising [1] - The author has a passion for investor education, having conducted numerous seminars and authored two books on stock selection and analysis [1] - The author expresses enthusiasm for their new role on Seeking Alpha, inviting feedback and engagement from the audience [1]

Core Insights - First Principles Partners specializes in equity research focused on technology, innovation, and sustainability investment, utilizing a unique approach to identify overlooked investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Company Overview - First Principles Partners employs a "First Principles" methodology that breaks down complex financial and technological problems to their basic elements, facilitating the discovery of investment opportunities [1] - The firm has a strong background in investment, private equity, and venture capital, demonstrating a proven track record of delivering strong returns [1] Group 2: Research Focus - Articles produced by First Principles Partners on Seeking Alpha concentrate on emerging technologies, sustainable investing, and the intersection of innovation and finance [1] - The company aims to share insights with a broader audience and engage with fellow investors to promote positive change and sustainability [1]

Core Insights - Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) is rated as a 'Buy' for long-term growth-oriented profiles, indicating strong potential for future performance [1] - The company is transitioning from a diagnostics provider to a leader in data and AI platforms specifically for precision oncology, showcasing its evolving business model [1] - The observable flywheel model of Tempus AI suggests a self-reinforcing cycle of growth and innovation within the company [1] Company Overview - Tempus AI is focusing on enhancing its capabilities in data and AI, which positions it strategically within the precision oncology market [1] - The shift in business focus reflects a broader trend in the healthcare industry towards integrating advanced technologies for improved patient outcomes [1]

Group 1 - Tempus AI, Inc. is positioned to benefit from increased scrutiny in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, which may drive demand for data-driven services [1] - The company operates in a market that could present multiple positive catalysts for growth [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of considering the entire investment ecosystem rather than evaluating a company in isolation [1]

Financial Performance - Tempus AI reported a net loss of $42.8 million in Q2 2025, significantly improved from a net loss of $552.2 million in the same quarter last year [1][8] - Total revenues increased by 89.6% year over year to $314.6 million, driven by a 115% surge in genomics revenues to $241.8 million and a 35.7% increase in Data and Services revenues to $73 million [2][8] - Gross profit rose sharply to $195 million, reflecting a 160% year-over-year increase, attributed to improved cost management and a focus on higher-margin products [3][8] Operational Efficiency - Adjusted EBITDA improved from a negative $16 million in Q1 2025 to a negative $5.6 million in Q2 2025, indicating stronger cost discipline and operational leverage [3] - The company ended the quarter with $293 million in cash and marketable securities, an increase of approximately $70 million from the previous quarter [4] Market Position - Tempus AI's stock has outperformed the industry, with a 41.3% increase over the past year compared to the industry's 17% growth and the S&P 500's 17.4% improvement [7] - The company's current forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 9.28X, higher than the industry average of 5.83X, indicating a potentially expensive valuation [9] Peer Comparisons - Guardant Health reported a net loss of $99.9 million for Q2 2025, an improvement driven by 31% year-over-year top-line growth and significant gross margin expansion [5] - Exact Sciences reported a net loss of $1.19 million, an improvement of $14.6 million from the previous year, supported by a 16% growth in total revenue and a quarterly gross profit increase of 15.2% [6]

Acquisitions and Growth Strategy - Tempus AI, Inc. announced the acquisition of Paige for $81.25 million, which includes nearly 7 million digitized pathology slide images and FDA-cleared AI tools, enhancing its digital pathology capabilities [1][8] - In March, Tempus acquired Deep 6 AI, expanding its access to medical records from over 30 million patients across 750 healthcare providers, thereby enhancing its healthcare platforms [2][8] - Earlier this year, Tempus completed the acquisition of Ambry Genetics for $375 million in cash and $225 million in stock, broadening its healthcare offerings into areas such as pediatrics, women's health, and rare diseases [3][8] Industry Position and Performance - Year to date, Tempus AI shares have surged 121.3%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 27% and the S&P 500's 9.8% improvement [6] - Tempus AI currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 9.04X, compared to the industry average of 5.90X, indicating a relatively expensive valuation [9] Financial Estimates - In the past 30 days, Tempus AI's loss per share estimate for 2025 has decreased by 3%, reflecting a slight adjustment in financial expectations [10] - Current loss per share estimates for the upcoming quarters and years are projected at -0.16 for the current quarter and -0.69 for the current year [11]

Core Insights - Tempus AI and Butterfly Network reported their Q2 2025 results, highlighting contrasting growth trajectories driven by AI [1] - Tempus AI is experiencing rapid revenue growth and nearing profitability, while Butterfly Network is in a turnaround phase with modest revenue gains [1] Tempus AI - Tempus AI's Q2 2025 revenues increased nearly 90% year over year, surpassing estimates by 5.12%, driven by a 115% rise in Genomics and a 35.7% increase in high-margin Data and Services [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $5.6 million, with management raising revenue guidance to $1.26 billion for 2025 [6] - The company is building a competitive moat through innovation, with over 40 million patient records connected and strategic partnerships enhancing its data and AI capabilities [7] - Despite strong growth, Tempus AI is still operating at a loss, with rising costs of revenues increasing by 32.2% year over year [9] Butterfly Network - Butterfly Network is gaining traction with large-scale deployments, including a significant enterprise deal with a top health system, indicating confidence in its iQ3 handheld ultrasound platform [10] - The launch of Compass AI signals a shift towards a software-driven model, aiming for higher-margin recurring revenue [10] - HomeCare pilots have shown promise in reducing heart failure readmissions, with potential annual revenue of $40-$60 million from one customer [11] - Despite progress, Butterfly Network faces challenges such as elongated sales cycles and reliance on partner uptake for new initiatives [12] Valuation Comparison - Tempus AI has a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 9.59, above its one-year median of 8.05, while Butterfly Network's P/S ratio is 3.73, below its median of 5.46 [13] - Analysts suggest a potential decline of 8.1% for Tempus AI's stock, while Butterfly Network's average price target implies a 128% upside [14][15] Investment Outlook - Tempus AI's impressive growth and innovation are tempered by its high valuation and ongoing losses, suggesting a cautious investment approach [17][20] - Butterfly Network, despite modest growth and execution risks, presents a compelling opportunity for investors due to its distressed valuation and significant upside potential [20]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is significantly impacting various industries, with healthcare being one of the sectors that is beginning to adopt AI technologies [1][2][3] Group 1: AI in Healthcare - Despite the slow adoption of AI in healthcare, there are promising opportunities for investors as companies begin to commercialize AI solutions [3] - Recursion Pharmaceuticals has developed Recursion OS, a platform that utilizes 36 petabytes of biological and chemical data to virtually test drug potentials at a fraction of the cost of traditional clinical trials [7][9] - Tempus AI offers practical AI solutions for caregivers, helping with disease diagnosis, clinical trial suggestions, and treatment efficacy predictions, which enhances patient outcomes [15][16] Group 2: Company Performance - Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported a revenue of just under $34 million in the first half of the year, with a net loss of $374 million, but analysts expect revenue to triple by 2027 while halving losses [11][12] - Tempus AI generated $693 million in revenue last year, reflecting a 30% year-over-year growth, and is projected to become profitable by fiscal 2027 as it continues to grow [14][18]

Core Insights - Rising demand for precision and personalized medicine is driving the need for AI-enabled medical devices to provide individualized diagnostics and treatments [1] Group 1: AI Applications in Medical Devices - Generative AI and agentic AI are increasingly integrated into medical devices, enhancing clinical workflows and patient care by analyzing patient-specific data [3] - Generative AI is utilized for content creation and design optimization, while agentic AI enables autonomous decision-making in medical devices [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX) - Boston Scientific is experiencing strong demand in its MedSurg and Cardiovascular lines, with significant traction for its WATCHMAN FLX and FLX Pro devices [6] - The company leverages AI in heart diagnostics, arrhythmia mapping, and coronary imaging, with an expected revenue growth rate of 18.3% and earnings growth rate of 18.7% for the current year [8][9] Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech division focuses on AI technologies for surgical robotics and digital surgery analytics, with an expected revenue growth rate of 5.2% and earnings growth rate of 8.8% for the current year [12][10] - The company has developed an AI-enabled ecosystem called Ottava for robotic surgery and the Caresurgical/VELYS systems for procedure planning [11] GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) - GE HealthCare is witnessing strong market demand driven by rising procedure volumes and capital investments, with AI central to its digital strategy [14] - The company has launched AI-driven solutions like CleaRecon DL and Invenia Automated Breast Ultrasound Premium, with an expected revenue growth rate of 3.5% and earnings growth rate of 0.9% for the current year [16][15] Tempus AI Inc. (TEM) - Tempus AI focuses on advancing precision medicine through AI applications, providing solutions for personalized patient care, particularly in oncology and cardiology [18] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 81.1% and earnings growth rate of 55.7% for the current year [20]